Just dropped to 870

Ok I didn't want to throw the bitcoin comparison out there because the fundamentals aren't even remotely related.

But the price performance feels exactly the same as watching 2017 bitcoin.

Ag13 said:

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lead said:

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hph6203 said:

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Alter the form in which the demand is fulfilled, not eliminate demand. Who makes more money from a car, the car manufacturer or the taxi owner/operator? What if the owner/operator of the car is the manufacturer? If that happens it's going to become very expensive to own a car of your own.

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I don't see how demand for new vehicles doesn't drop enormously in a self-driving world where cars don't have individual owners. Perhaps the bet is that Tesla will be the Uber of this technology and will ultimately control all roads.

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This is the opportunity. Transportation of people and goods will never go away. Automating it can take out the need to own a car and thus take out all the headaches of owning a car (insurance, maintenance, gas, car washes, somewhere to park it, etc etc etc). If Tesla owns the technology, the hardware, and the network, then the possibilities are limitless.

Imagine a world where a car is waiting for you every day at 7am to take you to work. And it's way cheaper than an uber now because there's no driver to pay. It's also certainly significantly cheaper than your car note and mileage expenses.

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You will never have this at a rock bottom rate. The whole idea of ride sharing is that there are 'too many cars' with not enough service use. It only gets used for 1-2 hours a day at predictable times 7AM, and 5PM. As of right now, the amount of cars on the road perfectly matches the demand for driving a car.

If you were to replace everyone owning a car with ride sharing, that company is not going to have a fleet sitting around with 15-20% utilization rate that cars currently have. It will be way fewer cars and market demand prices. Think of how uber works with rate spikes. Now imagine planning on dealing with a rate spike every morning and evening and twice on wet conditions.

No thanks.

Being rebought after hours but might stick at a 920 mark. Funky stock for sure

Gigemags382 said:

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Alright I understand the optimism and big gains for Tesla this year, but it's now officially the FOMO crowd jumping in.

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You have competing views on Tesla. You have the shorts that say the fundamentals of the company don't come remotely close to justifying the market cap, and you have the long positions that believe that Tesla is going to change the landscape across multiple industries. Shorts believed Tesla was overpriced at the 185.00 share price last May and held that position through Q2 earnings, because the company was still not profitable.

The earnings report last week was bad news for Tesla shorts as they've expected a deep dive in the price due to inability to turn a profit, and Tesla just did that in back to back quarters. Their belief was that Tesla would bleed through their cash reserves in 18 months from May 2019 and would have to raise cash through equity dilution and it's clear now that is not going to happen. At least not in the near term. Their short positions now have a longer time horizon than their expectation and they're scrambling to close them out, which means they have to pry the long positions out of their holdings. Depending on their expectation that can get very expensive. Imagine you know someone has to buy something from you, how much are you going to make them pay after they've mocked you for years? The answer is a lot apparently. At least that's my understanding, may not be completely accurate.

This doesn't appear to be new long money going into the stock, it's short closeouts and the stock price will normalize in a couple of weeks. Just a guess. It's why some that are long Tesla are now considering shorting it in the near term.

hph6203 said:

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Gigemags382 said:

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Alright I understand the optimism and big gains for Tesla this year, but it's now officially the FOMO crowd jumping in.

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You have competing views on Tesla. You have the shorts that say the fundamentals of the company don't come remotely close to justifying the market cap, and you have the long positions that believe that Tesla is going to change the landscape across multiple industries. Shorts believed Tesla was overpriced at the 185.00 share price last May and held that position through Q2 earnings, because the company was still not profitable.

The earnings report last week was bad news for Tesla shorts as they've expected a deep dive in the price due to inability to turn a profit, and Tesla just did that in back to back quarters. Their belief was that Tesla would bleed through their cash reserves in 18 months from May 2019 and would have to raise cash through equity dilution and it's clear now that is not going to happen. At least not in the near term. Their short positions now have a longer time horizon than their expectation and they're scrambling to close them out, which means they have to pry the long positions out of their holdings. Depending on their expectation that can get very expensive. Imagine you know someone has to buy something from you, how much are you going to make them pay after they've mocked you for years? The answer is a lot apparently. At least that's my understanding, may not be completely accurate.

This doesn't appear to be new long money going into the stock, it's short closeouts and the stock price will normalize in a couple of weeks. Just a guess. It's why some that are long Tesla are now considering shorting it in the near term.

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Thank you for the explanation. Right or wrong, that makes perfect sense to me as to how the price could be skyrocketing that quickly for a large company.

Seems the sell off has already begun, floor is probably 600/650? Or at least the normalized price two weeks from now. Just a wild guess. Gonna happen quick.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-plans-to-sell-2-billion-in-stock-11581602788?mod=mhp

Quote:

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https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/01/30/tesla-inc-tsla-q4-2019-earnings-call-transcript.aspx

Q4 2019 Earnings Call

Jan 29, 2020, 6:30 p.m. ET

Martin Viecha -- Senior Director of Investor Relations
Okay. The next question from institutional investors is, given the recent run in the share price, why not raise capital now and substantially accelerate the growth in production, i.e., build the Gigafactories, investment in Supercharger and customer service?

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Well, we're actually spending money as quickly as we can spend it sensibly. So if there's any sensible way to spend money, we're spending it. There is no artificial hold back on expenditures. Anything that I see that is what looks like it's got good value for money, the answer is yes immediately. But we're spending money I think efficiently and we're not artificially limiting our progress. And then despite all that we are still generating positive cash. So in light of that, it doesn't make sense to raise money because we expect to generate cash despite this growth level. Zach?

Zachary J. Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I completely agree with that. I think some of our learnings during the Model 3 launch period where we grew too quickly and with too much complexity and it held back our ability to continue to scale and part of the journey that we've been on in 2019 is to underline a series of unintentional bad processes that kind of accumulated in the company over-time.
And so that's kind of what contributes to the reduction in OpEx over the year as we get smarter about that. And now we've laid a good foundation and I think and I agree with you on that we're not holding back on the growth. I mean we have two products, two vehicle products launching right now and that will consume much of the bandwidth of the company to stabilize those over the course of the year. And then looking into next year, we have even more products launching, more factories. So we want to be smart about how we spend money and grow in a way that's sustainable. So we don't fall victim to the mistakes I think we made a year and a half or so ago.

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, absolutely.

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LoLoLoL

This was stated less than two weeks ago, Jan. 30, 2020 at the Q4 '19 quarterly earnings call.


As always, take anything coming out of Elon's mouth with a grain of salt.

The conference call happened when their stock valuation was only ridiculous. Now that it's 50% more ridiculous than it was then, someone clearly talked some sense into them.

It was at $650 at the close moments before conf call...

It closed at $580.99 on January 29. It's closed today at $804. A 38.38% increase. In between then and now, it peaked at $968.99, a 66.78% increase.

I'm not saying this is good or bad for Tesla, I'm just saying that a material increase happened that would be foolish for them to not reconsider a capital raise with.

Welcome to those that believe in "technicals".


And LoL. But what changed? Why dilute shareholders if you dont need to? Elon stated, literally, unequivocally, that they would fund their current growth objectives out of FCF going forward. So the question remains, what is the $2B for? Surely, it would be better for all current investors to realize the upcoming growth and gains with undiluted shares. Now, their shares will be worth less.

Has the change in stock price changed their growth goals? Has Elon stated as much? So, $2B more equity, but same growth goals? Who is benefitting from this?

It was two weeks ago. What has materially changed in Tesla's planning or situation that warrants a $2B raise?

The sad fad fact is, current equity investors don't care and Elon won't say.

New all time high and no signs it is slowing down really.

Cybertruck reservations may be over 500k.

https://electrek.co/2020/02/19/tesla-cybertruck-pre-orders-tally/

Feel bad for my buddy who flipped $740 puts from 3.8-$5 on Wednesday...they will open at $90+ tomorrow doh

I don't think Tesla will survive this. But, the other autos may not either.

bmks270 said:

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I don't think Tesla will survive this. But, the other autos may not either.

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As I watch Ford's stock drop I decided Tesla may have the better chance of surviving. Margins are so small, and all the labor agreements with the old automakers will keep them from ever making money.

All A&M said:

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At $363 now (down 60% from the high last month). Anyone make money with puts or shorts? Anyone buying more downside? May 1st Puts are really expensive!

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I put the money in my account to buy puts when it was over 900 a few weeks ago, but then I got distracted and forgot to pull the trigger.

I bought $750 puts when the stock was around $850, and sold when it dropped to $600. Kicking myself for not holding on longer.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/behold-the-wtf-chart-of-the-year-2020-03-19?mod=home-page

So Tesla has released their production and delivery stats for Q1, they actually had quite a strong quarter despite the virus. Of course Q2 is going to be a train wreck for all auto manufacturers. At least Tesla won't be going into the quarter with a huge stock of unsold cars.

PALO ALTO, Apr 02, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE via COMTEX) -- PALO ALTO, Calif., April 02, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In the first quarter, we produced almost 103,000 vehicles and delivered approximately 88,400 vehicles. This is our best ever first quarter performance.

Model Y production started in January and deliveries began in March, significantly ahead of schedule. Additionally, our Shanghai factory continued to achieve record levels of production, despite significant setbacks.

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/tesla-q1-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries-2020-04-02-16184623

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/tesla-dismissing-contractors-from-fremont-nevada-factories-sources.html

Tesla Headed for More Than 50% Rally in Just Seven Sessions

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/tesla-caps-43-rally-in-longest-advance-since-early-february

Based on...??