I'm sure those stats are as real as the armor glass

Why? Current models are that fast

Just joking about the armor glass demo

They really need to keep Musk off stage in the future

GAC06 said:

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They really need to keep Musk off stage in the future

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Musk has to have the spot light.

500,000ags said:

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Damn, read the truck will do 0-60 in 2.9s and have a towing capacity of 14k. That's nuts.

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For $70k

Ya raptors and the like. You don't need to spend that much go get good towing with a half ton. And there's no way in hell I'd feel safe towing 14k pounds with any half ton.

You can get a well equipped lariat in the low 50's towing 13,200.

This thing seems a lot faster than a raptor. It will have a market, especially if they take the edge off how ugly it is

150,000 pre-orders for this truck.

I guess people think they live on the Fortnite island.

Isn't it just a $100 refundable deposit to pre-order?

LostInLA07 said:

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Isn't it just a $100 refundable deposit to pre-order?

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Yes, but 150k+ people handing over $100 bucks to get in line for a product that isn't due out for two years is still a pretty significant indicator that there is demand.

This clearly isn't and isn't trying to be a drop-in replacement for a traditional truck, but I suspect for many people it will meet their needs. At a minimum it will offer a level of performance that no other truck will be able to dream of achieving.

Fizban said:

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LostInLA07 said:

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Isn't it just a $100 refundable deposit to pre-order?

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Yes, but 150k+ people handing over $100 bucks to get in line for a product that isn't due out for two years is still a pretty significant indicator that there is demand.

This clearly isn't and isn't trying to be a drop-in replacement for a traditional truck, but I suspect for many people it will meet their needs. At a minimum it will offer a level of performance that no other truck will be able to dream of achieving.

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Eh, maybe the top trim level.

Reality:
Jeep Gladiator with the max tow package costs $39k, tows 7500 lbs, 1500 lbs payload and has a 7.2 sec 0-60 time and is a 4x4.

The 39k Tesla tows 7500 lbs, 3500 lbs payload, 6.5 sec 0-60, and is NOT a 4x4. Lack of 4WD is going to make sales on this package slim imo.

To get 4x4 you have step up to the $50,000 price, and you can get F150s that have 4x4, and equal tow and payload capacity for less than $50,000.

Saying the tesla truck does 2.9 seconds, tows 14k and starts at 39k is a bit misleading, those specs are for the 70k package.

Certainly the Tesla being electric is likely have best 0-60 times, it's tow ratings and 4x4 can be had at lower prices, although it's still competitive it's not totally going to blow other trucks away for doing truck stuff.

I'm more interested in how gas savings and potential maintenance and reliability improvements of the electric drivetrain will weigh on consumers. Having electric motors and charging would maybe be enough savings to justify a higher price point. Although the longevity and range degradation of the battery over time still poses a risk.

Honestly if it wasn't so hideous I think a lot more people would be open to it. But I don't see the lower priced trims competing much outside of California where gas is insanely expensive, you get HOV lane access, tax credits, and the state is full of climate change nuts.

I wouldn't be shocked if more than 2/3s of their orders are from California.

I'm still interested in seeing what real world tow distances and performances are. It's one thing to claim weight, but it's quite another to pull a wall of wind down the highway safely and effectively.

Fizban said:

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LostInLA07 said:

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Isn't it just a $100 refundable deposit to pre-order?

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Yes, but 150k+ people handing over $100 bucks to get in line for a product that isn't due out for two years is still a pretty significant indicator that there is demand.

This clearly isn't and isn't trying to be a drop-in replacement for a traditional truck, but I suspect for many people it will meet their needs. At a minimum it will offer a level of performance that no other truck will be able to dream of achieving.

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So seems a lot of orders were due to website glitches...

bmks270 said:

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Fizban said:

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LostInLA07 said:

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Isn't it just a $100 refundable deposit to pre-order?

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Yes, but 150k+ people handing over $100 bucks to get in line for a product that isn't due out for two years is still a pretty significant indicator that there is demand.

This clearly isn't and isn't trying to be a drop-in replacement for a traditional truck, but I suspect for many people it will meet their needs. At a minimum it will offer a level of performance that no other truck will be able to dream of achieving.

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So seems a lot of orders were due to website glitches...

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Could be... but Elon is now saying orders are up to 187k so the fast pace of orders is continuing.

Up to 250k...

What prevents a competitor or somesuch from placing a bunch of preorders for $100 then dropping them all when they get closer to production, causing Tesla's projections to be off?

You are so easily impressed.

I'm sure fanatics will buy this thing. Doesn't mean it will have long term demand. The fact that it is ugly doesn't help.

I'd bet <50% conversion rate from these refundable $100 orders, and a cliff of demand behind it. But I anxiously await Elon's next tweet of material information (weren't there rules about this - or is Elon above the rules again?) so that you can scramble to post it here - I know you spend hours every day seeking afirmation from the real life ironman. #notacult

Gordo14 said:

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bmks270 said:

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With 400,000 model 3s on order what growth does Tesla have after they fill their pre-sale orders? Everyone who wanted a Tesla will have one.

I just think once these things are finished being delivered in the next 2-3 years they will be out of customers.

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In the next month or so they'll be out of customers willing to spend over $35K for a model 3. Good luck with your margins after you've sold all your $55K+ model 3s.

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I guess a bit has changed since May 2018...

agchino said:

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What prevents a competitor or somesuch from placing a bunch of preorders for $100 then dropping them all when they get closer to production, causing Tesla's projections to be off?

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I mean... this would be fraud, no?

Teslas sales have TANKED in their biggest market after this years summer deliveries, California!

This is the demand cliff. It's hit California... only another year of so if international deliveries before those markets hit their cliff.

Sale prices down over 10% in a year.

Quote:

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The swing was most pronounced in the Model 3, the least expensive Tesla line that was supposed to attract a broader class of buyer. In July, sales were up 136.1% year over year. But in August, sales were down 40.3% and then down 16% in September.

The Model S was generally down: -12.8% in July between 2018 and 2019, -31.6% in August and -37.9%, and in September. The Model X was up 17% in July, down -14.1% in August, and then at -16.7% in September.

The drop was most pronounced in California, which is Tesla's biggest U.S. state for sales. The state saw 4,275 registrations across the three models in July 2018 and 9,273 in July 2019, a jump of 116.9%. Then they fell year-over-year in August by -60.1% to 3,737 and by -26.8% to 4,667 in September.

Prices also seemed to drop. Cross-Sell only provided data for Texas, but the average Model 3 price in September 2018 was $55,775.90. In September 2019, it was $50,674.81. The Model S went from $106,884,14 to $93,381.71. The Model X dropped from $108,401.88 to $103,585.21.

https://fortune.com/2019/10/14/tesla-registrations-down-august-september/

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3rd quarter saw a 40% decline in US revenue.

The globe only has so many buyers left. They are "growing" in other markets, but the US market is the first domino in the demand cliff.

The drop in sale prices is the biggest red flag. That's a sure sign demand has peaked.

I think they'll end up with way more manufacturing capacity than they'll have sustainable demand.

bmks270 said:

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Teslas sales have TANKED in their biggest market after this years summer deliveries, California!

This is the demand cliff. It's hit California... only another year of so if international deliveries before those markets hit their cliff.

Sale prices down over 10% in a year.

Quote:

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The swing was most pronounced in the Model 3, the least expensive Tesla line that was supposed to attract a broader class of buyer. In July, sales were up 136.1% year over year. But in August, sales were down 40.3% and then down 16% in September.

The Model S was generally down: -12.8% in July between 2018 and 2019, -31.6% in August and -37.9%, and in September. The Model X was up 17% in July, down -14.1% in August, and then at -16.7% in September.

The drop was most pronounced in California, which is Tesla's biggest U.S. state for sales. The state saw 4,275 registrations across the three models in July 2018 and 9,273 in July 2019, a jump of 116.9%. Then they fell year-over-year in August by -60.1% to 3,737 and by -26.8% to 4,667 in September.

Prices also seemed to drop. Cross-Sell only provided data for Texas, but the average Model 3 price in September 2018 was $55,775.90. In September 2019, it was $50,674.81. The Model S went from $106,884,14 to $93,381.71. The Model X dropped from $108,401.88 to $103,585.21.

https://fortune.com/2019/10/14/tesla-registrations-down-august-september/

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3rd quarter saw a 40% decline in US revenue.

The globe only has so many buyers left. They are "growing" in other markets, but the US market is the first domino in the demand cliff.

The drop in sale prices is the biggest red flag. That's a sure sign demand has peaked.

I think they'll end up with way more manufacturing capacity than they'll have sustainable demand.

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Yes, Tesla saw a decline in its US sales/revenue... even as it saw record production and deliveries.

Can't figure out why? Tesla sent a greater percentage of its production overseas than Q3 2018 because in Q3 2018 Tesla hadn't yet launched the Model 3 outside North America.

Tesla is production limited right now. They are making cars as fast as possible and selling every single one of them.

That is not evidence of some kind of "demand cliff." Similarly the idea that there is a set finite number of Tesla buyers in the world and that Tesla will just run out of buyers soon is idiotic.

Ford has been selling cars/trucks for how long? How come they haven't run out of buyers yet?

Quote:

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Tesla shares soar after crushing third-quarter earnings


Tesla delivered a strong third-quarter earnings report after the bell on Wednesday, posting a surprise profit and telling shareholders it is ahead of schedule with a new factory in Shanghai. Shares spiked more than 20% after hours, putting them at their highest price since February.

...

The electric car maker gave investors plenty to look forward to next year. It released a glossy 28-page investor update filled with photos from its new factory in Shanghai where Tesla said it's already begun trial production runs.

The company also said it was ahead of schedule on its long-awaited Model Y crossover, which it now expects to launch by next summer. At the same time, Tesla says it is planning to make a limited run of its Tesla Semi truck next year, and hopes to soon announce the location of its European Gigafactory, where it aims to begin making electric vehicles in 2021.

...

The company said in its Q3 2019 report: "Despite reductions in the average selling price (ASP) of Model 3 as global mix stabilizes, our gross margins have strengthened."

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/23/tesla-tsla-earnings-q3-2019.html

Quote:

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Tesla shares shot up more than 20 percent during after-hours trading on Wednesday as the automaker announced the profitable and productive details of its third-quarter operations.
Besides shipping a record number of vehicles, Tesla announced its first profit since 2018a slim net income of $143 million. More importantly, Tesla was able to achieve this number while generating $6.3 billion in revenue, only $23 million less than last quarter. During its quarterly earnings call, Tesla Chief Financial Officer Zach Kirkhorn attributed this to cost-cutting measures across the board, enabling Tesla to post a profit despite the average selling price of its Model 3 sedan decreasing overall.
Financials aside, Tesla has been busy worldwide. Just 10 months after breaking ground in China, the automaker has nearly completed construction of its Shanghai-based Gigafactory, which includes metal stamping, general assembly lines, and a paint shop. CEO Elon Musk also confirmed that a second building erected at the site will be used for battery cell and module production.

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https://www.thedrive.com/news/30610/tesla-q3-results-increased-deliveries-decreased-costs-and-a-new-gigafactory

It doesn't help that cars in general are decreasing in sales relative to SUV's and trucks. How the model y and cyber truck do will matter a lot.

If they could have moved the vehicles at the higher price point they would have. It's that simple.

Which options are being ordered the most? Comparing average price without a breakdown of which versions are most popular doesn't necessarily tell the whole story.

Btw, passenger car sales were down YoY in the U.S. in general those months.

In July down 9.2%
In August down 1.3%
In September down 11.1%

https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/salesfig_usa_2019

bmks270 said:

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If they could have moved the vehicles at the higher price point they would have. It's that simple.

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Yes, that is true of essentially any company.

Tesla's margins climbed last quarter and they have actually been raising prices (slightly) most recently.

C/D letters this month...


And then this...