Fizban said:

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Nah, certainly it will be a far stronger quarter than Q1 but I would basically just be throwing darts. Neither a small loss nor a small profit would surprise me.

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Considering the worsening sales mix, lowered average sales price and severe price cuts, I'd say it's anything but certain. We'll see.

TennAg said:

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Fizban said:

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95k deliveries last quarter, new record. They also announced new orders exceeded deliveries and their backlog has actually increased.

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Any quarterly profit guesses?

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$700 million loss in Q1....
even with 30k more deliveries I don't think that it can make up $700 million dollars. Thats over $10,000,000 loss per vehicle delivered in Q1. They would need to have another large sale of CO2 credits to other manufacturers. I don't think their margins are that high on their car sales.
Maybe if they cut some R&D spending like on their vapor-hardware semitruck they can make a profit.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Fizban said:

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95k deliveries last quarter, new record. They also announced new orders exceeded deliveries and their backlog has actually increased.

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The problem I see with the deliveries number is that they claimed q1 was super low due to having roughly 10k cars in transit. Seems like q2 was an average quarter inflated by late q1 deliveries.

In q4 they delivered 85k. In q1 they delivered 63k. In q2 they delivered 95k. Say q2 was average. Q1 was still 12k vehicles low. The question becomes, "Exactly how many q1 in transit vehicles are counted as q2 deliveries and what does q2 really look like?" If you subtract the 10k cars reported in transit in q1, q2 was just an average quarter. For Tesla that's not good.

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Still 7400 vehicles in transit, so just subtract 2600.

After covering all shorts and puts on the fun drop its now just a waiting game for that big gap at $286 to fill with momentum close to or even just past $300. That's when you pile in for the next drop on trend towards $100

Tesla Readies Production Boost, Flags Return to Hiring Mode

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-10/tesla-tells-staff-it-s-preparing-to-lift-output-at-fremont-plant



Tesla Supplier Hints at Massive Increase in Model 3 Production

https://electrek.co/2019/07/11/tesla-supplier-hints-massive-model-3-production-increase/

Full self driving can't become reality until Tesla solves the parking lot problem.

Also interesting, Tesla has their in depth engineering reviews on Saturdays.

Elon's original timeline:

Full self driving end of year:

Why do you think TSLA drops toward $100?

As a car manufacturer, TSLA can't compete in volume or pricing against GM/Ford/Acura etc. but if the home battery plus solar panels get added into the discussion, maybe it can be profitable one day? Especially if the Democrates win the 2020 election. The Democrates will push into non-fossil fuel energy production to reduce the CO2 emission.

What do you think?

They make zero money in those areas and they have no tech that would decommoditize that space. They don't even talk about them on earnings calls.

speaking of earnings calls...

TennAg said:

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speaking of earnings calls...

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They lost a **** ton of money again, even with record deliveries

Fizban said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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Fizban said:

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95k deliveries last quarter, new record. They also announced new orders exceeded deliveries and their backlog has actually increased.

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The problem I see with the deliveries number is that they claimed q1 was super low due to having roughly 10k cars in transit. Seems like q2 was an average quarter inflated by late q1 deliveries.

In q4 they delivered 85k. In q1 they delivered 63k. In q2 they delivered 95k. Say q2 was average. Q1 was still 12k vehicles low. The question becomes, "Exactly how many q1 in transit vehicles are counted as q2 deliveries and what does q2 really look like?" If you subtract the 10k cars reported in transit in q1, q2 was just an average quarter. For Tesla that's not good.

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Given Tesla's rate of growth there really isn't such a thing as an "average" quarter. Q4 2018 was somewhat boosted by the expiration of the tax credit. Q1 2019 was somewhat depressed by the additional shipping time and logistical complications associated with introducing the Model 3 to Europe and Asia. Q2 2019 picked up some of the Europe/Asia deliveries that missed Q1, but it is still an all-time record. This combined with orders exceeding deliveries and continued improvement in the Model 3 production rate (highest ever in Q2) make it hard to see Q2 as average.

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Average since moving into full model 3 production. That's the growth you see in that chart. They're not moving much beyond the average of the last 3 quarters or so anytime soon, so if they aren't becoming profitable soon, they may never.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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TennAg said:

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speaking of earnings calls...

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They lost a **** ton of money again, even with record deliveries

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I'm new to this, is it bad for a 16 year old growth company to lose more than a billion in h1?

TSLA is killing itself. Selling the model 3 is destroying their sales of the cars that actually have margin.

The short continues.

What did they over spend 1 billion dollars on. $1 billion net losses in 6 months.

How many years of slim profits will it take to zero the losses from their first 16 years of existence?

But TSLA is so dangerous to short. Just when I was thinking about shorting it, it jumped to $260. It seems that every little bit of decent news TSLA jumps but the overall under-performing car business, seems like the stock market ignors.

mentorsubsea said:

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But TSLA is so dangerous to short. Just when I was thinking about shorting it, it jumped to $260. It seems that every little bit of decent news TSLA jumps but the overall under-performing car business, seems like the stock market ignors.

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This is true, and I think it's mostly due to the fanboi level support of many consumers (those who will buy a $50k car because of what it represents and love it no matter what problems it has) and the growth potential if the company eventually succeeds and becomes the size of Ford or GM. Maybe another part of it is that people have learned to take musk's projections with a few grains of salt and highly temper expectations, too.

Now isn't the time to short. That was a year or so ago when it was in the mid 300's and, IMO, obviously overvalued. I say that it was obviously overvalued because many here agreed with that assessment even at the time and the question was not whether the bottom would fall out but when. That was before model 3 hype met model 3 reality, when there were many who looked at what musk was doing and how and could see the train wreck coming and many more others who bought into the cult of personality of musk and the allure of Tesla as a brand and ignored the obviously overoptimistic timelines and technologies and the missed milestones and underdelivered promises. That $350ish price was built on potential and promises, and anyone looking at it objectively could tell that it want realistic.

I think this is a great time to short, this is still a $200-something stock of an structurally unprofitable company with crippling debt. Timing is still in the air so I'd short the stock, I wouldn't be buying puts.

TennAg said:

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I think this is a great time to short, this is still a $200-something stock of an structurally unprofitable company with crippling debt. Timing is still in the air so I'd short the stock, I wouldn't be buying puts.

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I don't necessarily agree. They're definitely probably not going to be successful, but there's always the possibility of a buyout boosting the stock price and any kind of good news in Q3 will make the stock skyrocket. I think the time for shorting was a year ago in the middle of the growth hype around the model 3, before the reality of model 3 production and sales and margins hit. I could see another short opportunity of they introduce a new model line, but they have learned a lot of design and manufacturing lessons (albeit expensively).

It's like online poker. There was a good time to play because there was a sea of suckers sitting at tables and putting money into the game, and they were easy prey for even mediocre players. As the suckers got bled dry and left, the mediocre players became the prey for top level players. A year ago, there were a ton of suckers driving up TSLA on hype and hope, but they're mostly gone now. That's when anyone with minimal knowledge of manufacturing and automotive could see how overvalued TSLA was, and even mediocre investors or traders could make a killing (they're down $100 and something like 30%). Now the short sell is a much riskier proposition with a lower payoff for the mediocre investor or trader.

I see what you're saying but:

1. Nobody's going to buy out tesla with their outstanding debt, warranty, and liability issues.
2. We're only a couple months away from seeing actual yoy declines. That hasn't been experienced and will pop the growth story.
3. This stock at this price has tons of room to fall.
4. Regulators and consumer protection groups are finally paying attention to autopilot and its dangers.
5. The robotaxi stuff is bull**** and that's what most of this run up has been about.
6. Tesla forums are almost all complaints about quality and service. A brand that wants to go mainstream can't take much of that and still grow.

TennAg said:

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I see what you're saying but:

1. Nobody's going to buy out tesla with their outstanding debt, warranty, and liability issues.
2. We're only a couple months away from seeing actual yoy declines. That hasn't been experienced and will pop the growth story.
3. This stock at this price has tons of room to fall.
4. Regulators and consumer protection groups are finally paying attention to autopilot and its dangers.
5. The robotaxi stuff is bull**** and that's what most of this run up has been about.
6. Tesla forums are almost all complaints about quality and service. A brand that wants to go mainstream can't take much of that and still grow.

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I agree in almost all respects, but...

Someone could buy them out simply for the technology and brand. Despite their debt, they do have quite a bit of IP and assets. I could see a buyout.

I could see YoY declines, but the growth potential is still there and excuses could be made (as always). 1 YoY decline probably won't kill them, but repeated declines over the next 3-4 quarters could. They can also inflate their revenues with carbon credits. That's basically free money.

There's definitely tons of room to fall, but less than a year ago. All I'm saying is that last year was a lot more of a sure bet.

Autopilot is definitely as much of a liability as it is a selling point.

Robotaxi is indeed bull****, but I believe more of the run up has been the model 3 in general. I think their downfall is that margins and demand have not been what they projected, likely due to expiring tax credits, late initial deliveries, and quality control issues.

There are plenty of pro-Tesla blogs and forums out there. Their QA/QC is God awful, but people are bought into the brand as much as the car. I agree that that is not enough to take it mainstream, but they'll at least be sustained for awhile.




They're probably still a good long term short, there's just no telling when they tank. Last year, you could tell it wouldn't take long, and they've lost a ton since then.

Musks ego is too big to ever sell Tesla.

bmks270 said:

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Musks ego is too big to ever sell Tesla.

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Except when he can commit fraud to make a weed joke.

Well this will be interesting. Apparently, Musk was apparently propping up SolarCity by buying SolarCity bonds through SpaceX before the Tesla merger. He allegedly knew SolarCity was basically insolvent, but talked them up to Tesla anyway after recusing himself from voting on the buy. I think some of the other board members at Tesla must have known as well because there were conflicts of interest all over the place. It looks like he really did use Tesla cash to essentially bail out his other company.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-09-23/solarcity-tesla-merger-shareholder-lawsuit%3f_amp=true

I thought this was obvious at the time it happened that it was a shady bail out.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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TennAg said:

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I see what you're saying but:

1. Nobody's going to buy out tesla with their outstanding debt, warranty, and liability issues.
2. We're only a couple months away from seeing actual yoy declines. That hasn't been experienced and will pop the growth story.
3. This stock at this price has tons of room to fall.
4. Regulators and consumer protection groups are finally paying attention to autopilot and its dangers.
5. The robotaxi stuff is bull**** and that's what most of this run up has been about.
6. Tesla forums are almost all complaints about quality and service. A brand that wants to go mainstream can't take much of that and still grow.

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I agree in almost all respects, but...

Someone could buy them out simply for the technology and brand. Despite their debt, they do have quite a bit of IP and assets. I could see a buyout.

I could see YoY declines, but the growth potential is still there and excuses could be made (as always). 1 YoY decline probably won't kill them, but repeated declines over the next 3-4 quarters could. They can also inflate their revenues with carbon credits. That's basically free money.

There's definitely tons of room to fall, but less than a year ago. All I'm saying is that last year was a lot more of a sure bet.

Autopilot is definitely as much of a liability as it is a selling point.

Robotaxi is indeed bull****, but I believe more of the run up has been the model 3 in general. I think their downfall is that margins and demand have not been what they projected, likely due to expiring tax credits, late initial deliveries, and quality control issues.

There are plenty of pro-Tesla blogs and forums out there. Their QA/QC is God awful, but people are bought into the brand as much as the car. I agree that that is not enough to take it mainstream, but they'll at least be sustained for awhile.




They're probably still a good long term short, there's just no telling when they tank. Last year, you could tell it wouldn't take long, and they've lost a ton since then.

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I think if Tesla doesn't survive, other auto manufacturers are going to be more interested in just hiring the engineers than buying the IP. Patents like that without their creators are hard to cash in on and hard to develop. If you've got two years to produce on the properties you've bought, would you rather spend those two years buying the IP and trying to reverse engineer it? Or buy the engineers and having them design for you what they really wanted to build in the first place?

I might buy the burning hulk of the company and the IP. I can get some of the engineers, but I can't get them all. That would be my problem. With the way that Tesla pushes the envelope, they likely already designed what they wanted. The problem is that Musk sucks at running a mass production business.

TennAg said:

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I see what you're saying but:

1. Nobody's going to buy out tesla with their outstanding debt, warranty, and liability issues.
2. We're only a couple months away from seeing actual yoy declines. That hasn't been experienced and will pop the growth story.
3. This stock at this price has tons of room to fall.
4. Regulators and consumer protection groups are finally paying attention to autopilot and its dangers.
5. The robotaxi stuff is bull**** and that's what most of this run up has been about.
6. Tesla forums are almost all complaints about quality and service. A brand that wants to go mainstream can't take much of that and still grow.

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Have you seen the football board...and we WON this past weekend. (granted it was Arkansas, but you'd think we lost to KU or something).

Funny you make that comparison. Both TSLA and Aggie Football are about a bunch of fanboys pumping a mediocre product,

As an investment, I wouldn't put my money in either.

Lol at the videos in this article. A fender bender, a near collision, and a trapped Tesla. How much money was spent by Tesla developing this feature? I don't if they spent too much, or spent too little, either way it seems pretty dangerous to use in public.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/30/20891343/tesla-smart-summon-feature-videos-parking-accidents

bmks270 said:

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Lol at the videos in this article. A fender bender, a near collision, and a trapped Tesla. How much money was spent by Tesla developing this feature? I don't if they spent too much, or spent too little, either way it seems pretty dangerous to use in public.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/30/20891343/tesla-smart-summon-feature-videos-parking-accidents

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That's the problem. They beta test it on customers. 99.9% of the time, it's ok. The problem is that as often as this and other autonomous features will get used, that .1% is going to be a lot. I'm sure they won't take responsibility or liability either. They'll use the fine print to **** over the customer when things go wrong, and they will.

1 million robotaxis by 2020

I wonder when this is going to get settled and for how much

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-solar-panel-fires-become-nightmare-some-homeowners-2019-10

Seems like FTC should be involved because it inevitably crosses state lines and involves depths trade practices.

Nice day for TSLA.

omg Tesla!

I think this thread will have some historical value in another couple years.