no idea why he calls it a hold. How is the growth story not totally busted? The battery is suppose to be a Tesla's niche but he clearly doesn't think they have any advantage in that space (i agree with him).

Some insight into how Q1 2019 is going:

Employees are being asked to volunteer time to help deliver vehicles.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-asks-employees-help-delivering-30000-cars-end-quarter-2019-3?utm_source=reddit.com

bmks270 said:

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Some insight into how Q1 2019 is going:

Employees are being asked to volunteer time to help deliver vehicles.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-asks-employees-help-delivering-30000-cars-end-quarter-2019-3?utm_source=reddit.com

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Sounds completely legal to me...

Musk is going off the rails. Seems to think he can go toe to toe with the SEC and win.

titanmaster_race said:

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Musk is going off the rails. Seems to think he can go toe to toe with the SEC and win.

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So the latest news is that he was not following terms of the SEC agreement to have tweets screened.
Tesla admitted NONE of Musk's tweets were screened, ever.
SEC asking court to find Musk in contempt.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/elon-musks-tesla-tweet-violates-sec-settlement-agreementus-regulator.html

Sounds like the SEC has a good case to me.

Bassmaster said:

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Sounds like the SEC has a good case to me.

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Yep. Unless Musk can redefine "pre" for the court then he, and the company, is in some pretty hot water.

Of course this may be his least embarrassing out, he may egg them on the whole way.

Teslas are quite the hot commodities...

The BOD needs to remove Musk and try and save the company before he implodes completely.
This stock should be a $100 based on the numbers not the Musk worship.

Demand cliff is here.

Tesla is building a giant factory in China... I don't think they'll need it unless they plan to close the one in California.

Production average was less than 5,000 per week.

Guidance for the year was 360,000 deliveries minimum, but Q1 pace of 63,000 would be 252,000....

To reach the minimum 360,000 deliveries they need a linear increase of 18,000 cars per quarter:
Q1 - 63,000
Q2 - 81,000
Q3 - 99,000
Q4 - 117,000

There are no more pre-orders to fill and Tesla essentially has to double the demand by the end of they year. What is Tesla doing to double the demand, especially with the tax credit expiring?

Model S and X demand collapsed. Lowest in many quarters. I think it is safe to assume this holds for the rest of the year.

So continue the short!!

I drive an F150 and may not ever want or need an electric for my personal vehicle - but secretly I hope Tesla succeeds. I think we need solid electric alternatives and they are one of the companies pushing the tech the hardest. And maybe I don't need one, but maybe wife and children one day...

I'm following here mostly - if they can pull themselves out in 3-5 years I may be a customer then.

Premium said:

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I drive an F150 and may not ever want or need an electric for my personal vehicle - but secretly I hope Tesla succeeds. I think we need solid electric alternatives and they are one of the companies pushing the tech the hardest. And maybe I don't need one, but maybe wife and children one day...

I'm following here mostly - if they can pull themselves out in 3-5 years I may be a customer then.

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Pushing the tech as in public awareness? Yeah that's definitely true at least for the last few years.

As far as the actual technology? No, pretty much everyone, including them, get their batteries from the Japanese or Chinese. They don't know any secret about batteries and are spending almost nothing on R&D in that area.

In contrast, the manufacturer of your F150 is in the middle of an 11,000,000,000 spend in this area. You'll have a hybrid and electric option in the lineup soon. Not that I'm a ford fan, Toyota actually started all this with the hybrids and are way ahead of the curve. They're skipping the pure BEVs using forever inefficient and heavy Li-ion and are spending incredible amounts on solid state and fuel cell tech.

TennAg said:

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Premium said:

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I drive an F150 and may not ever want or need an electric for my personal vehicle - but secretly I hope Tesla succeeds. I think we need solid electric alternatives and they are one of the companies pushing the tech the hardest. And maybe I don't need one, but maybe wife and children one day...

I'm following here mostly - if they can pull themselves out in 3-5 years I may be a customer then.

---

Pushing the tech as in public awareness? Yeah that's definitely true at least for the last few years.

As far as the actual technology? No, pretty much everyone, including them, get their batteries from the Japanese or Chinese. They don't know any secret about batteries and are spending almost nothing on R&D in that area.

In contrast, the manufacturer of your F150 is in the middle of an 11,000,000,000 spend in this area. You'll have a hybrid and electric option in the lineup soon. Not that I'm a ford fan, Toyota actually started all this with the hybrids and are way ahead of the curve. They're skipping the pure BEVs using forever inefficient and heavy Li-ion and are spending incredible amounts on solid state and fuel cell tech.

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Creating trendy and sporty electric vehicles has been a leap of tech IMO, even if I'm completely wrong - it's my perception. LOL @ Prius and Chevy Volt and Nissan LEAF. We need a higher end option and that's what Tesla brings - if it pans out...

I hear you completely. Luckily Jaguar, Porsche, Audi, et al are about to join the party in a big way as well.

TennAg said:

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I hear you completely. Luckily Jaguar, Porsche, Audi, et al are about to join the party in a big way as well.

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I'll be watching - that would all be nice to see.

bmks270 said:

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Tesla can be competitive in the luxury market, so if they stick with the 65k model 3 and market against Lexus and Acura and Mercedes then they will be fine. They need to stick to one identity. I think they will have a marketing error if they try to market the model 3 as a 35k Nissan Maxima or Honda accord class vehicle. There is a reason Acura and Honda, Nissan and Infinty, Toyota and Lexus are distinct seperate brands.

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Quoting myself here just to say it appears to be happening... luxury buyers are tired of Tesla since they are so common now.

Status symbol value of the Tesla brand has been damaged by the lower cost and the 'affordable' marketing of the model 3.

Apparently the Silicon Valley Audi dealer has 700 pre-orders of their electric etron vehicle.

When the Audi, Porsche, Mercedes and Jaguar electrics are all on sale, there are going to be a lot of Model S trade ins.

The luxury SUVs will be at dealerships soon. This probably explains the drop in Tesla model X and S sales where no breakdown was given.

Quote:

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"She said people are sick of seeing a
Tesla at every house..." and that "Tesla's make up 25% of every car in the parking lot..."

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I actually think the best thing that will happen to Tesla will be those Audi, Jag and Benz BEVs. So far, the tech specs on all of them have been substantially disappointing. People have been told to wait for them before buying an electric. When they can actually cross shop, they'll more likely buy the Tesla.

Audi may have a million pre-orders for the eTron, but they are only planning on producing 20,000 per year for the time being. Of course they were going to be doing that last year, and they still haven't sold one yet.

https://insideevs.com/audi-max-production-e-tron-end-of-year/

You mentioned Jaguar as an established car company that would eat Tesla's market? Jaguar will be lucky to survive Brexit, and Tesla already sells more cars in a bad quarter than Jaguar does worldwide. Here is their Tesla killer. BTW, they are selling it worldwide at a rate of about 1,000 per month, and are currently offering 0% financing.

https://insideevs.com/efficiency-jaguar-i-pace-falters/

Frankly though, I would delay selling them as long as possible if I were Audi. They've got a great promise, but as soon as they go on sale, the reality of their product doesn't looks good in comparison.

https://insideevs.com/audi-e-tron-disappoints-on-energy-consumption-is-now-last-among-bevs/

You could say they have no battery advantage and that they are just buying them from Panasonic, but the cars on the road tell a different story.

https://www.wiwo.de/unternehmen/auto/volkswagen-elektroautos-vws-batterien-enthalten-viermal-so-viel-kobalt-wie-tesla-batterien/24156880.html.

I've said before that I'm a fan and customer, but not an investor aside from what my midcap index fund owns, but there is an incredible amount of misinformation out there. One side or the other has a LOT of fake news being thrown around. The owners experience leads me to believe the pro-Tesla facts, but time will tell. I wouldn't put money on either side.

Good counter perspective of what may happen.

I am just wondering if the drop in X/S sales is people waiting a year so they can shop the other manufacturers.

And, even if the Tesla product is better, in consumer psychology, the best product doesn't matter. If Tesla's typical customer is using the car as a status symbol, and the brand loses that symbolism as hinted in the quoted tweet, then demand for Tesla will fall.

The A3 and A4 start right around where the model 3 starts. Nobody buys Jaguars. I doubt Tesla is concerned about Jaguar

Giga factory from idea thru today:
Click to read the tweet chain (15 total)

Tesla announces lease option, but with no option to buy. Former leases are being kept for Tesla's self driving ride hailing network.

$35,000 option is no longer available, call for pricing.

Tesla "Standard" Model 3 news:
- now has autopilot
- price increased
- must call to order, not available online
- now a software limited version of Standard Plus

https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-our-vehicle-lineup

35k option no longer available? Wasn't that the point they wanted to reach all along?

Ok, I see you have to call in and special order the 35k model. It's not available online

Short, short, short, short, short!

Leases and discontinuing the unprofitable models actually makes business sense. Smartest thing Tesla has done in a while. We won't know the impact until Q2 results release.

Quote:

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Why can't they just be honest and discontinue the money losing $35,000 option all together? It's the direction that should have been obvious a lot sooner than today.

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Because without the carrot of the $35k market they can't promise to sell the volume they need to be profitable and maintain their stock price.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-plans-raise-2-billion-114958082.html


Elon needs another $2B.

"Tesla Inc. plans to raise about $2 billion through debt and stock offerings, after Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk overestimated the ability of the Model 3 sedan to generate cash."

Quote:

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We view this as a clear net positive for Tesla," Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a note. The electric-car maker needed to "take its medicine and clear the air of the very real investor worries.

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How is this a "clear" net positive? They're not clearing the air of investor worries, they're confirming them. The model 3 isn't making them viable in the long term because it isn't achieving volume and they're looking for capital to burn to keep them afloat. How is this good?

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Quote:

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We view this as a clear net positive for Tesla," Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a note. The electric-car maker needed to "take its medicine and clear the air of the very real investor worries.

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How is this a "clear" net positive? They're not clearing the air of investor worries, they're confirming them. The model 3 isn't making them viable in the long term because it isn't achieving volume and they're looking for capital to burn to keep them afloat. How is this good?

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I guess it's positive compared to immediate bankruptcy? (For the share price, not the company.)

TennAg said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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Quote:

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We view this as a clear net positive for Tesla," Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a note. The electric-car maker needed to "take its medicine and clear the air of the very real investor worries.

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How is this a "clear" net positive? They're not clearing the air of investor worries, they're confirming them. The model 3 isn't making them viable in the long term because it isn't achieving volume and they're looking for capital to burn to keep them afloat. How is this good?

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I guess it's positive compared to immediate bankruptcy? (For the share price, not the company.)

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I guess...

Honestly, tesla is starting to make me think of Enron, but without the ****ty contacts and debt hiding SPE's. They're selling themselves on all of these big ideas and the future, but they're not focusing enough on today and getting cash in the door. They're blowing through money on R&D to deliver on unrealistic ideas and timelines put forth by Musk, kind of like how Enron Broadband was trying to deliver on a lot of unrealistic promises made by Jeff Skilling. Tesla, unlike Enron, is making technological leaps and bounds, but they're still not going to deliver what was promised and when. They're already late on a lot of the self-driving stuff and I don't see them really delivering on that anytime soon.

That's the other similarity: reliance on deregulation. Enron made a lot of assumptions about deregulation in certain markets and leveraged themselves on it. They spent huge sums of money and loaded up on debt to position themselves to take advantage of it, but it didn't happen or happened too late. That leveraging contributed to their downfall. Tesla is putting billions of eggs in the autonomy basket, but I'm not sure they can last long enough selling cars to see widespread and meaningful deregulation in autonomous driving.

The debt offering is convertible debt, but they added some features that basically turn it into synthetic straight debt. It's not Enron-level by any means, but it's definitely telling that they went that route instead of accessing straight debt like a conventional manufacturer.

jh0400 said:

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The debt offering is convertible debt, but they added some features that basically turn it into synthetic straight debt. It's not Enron-level by any means, but it's definitely telling that they went that route instead of accessing straight debt like a conventional manufacturer.

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I'm not saying that this offering is specifically like Enron, just some of their overall attitude and strategy. They're blowing through capital, making a lot of big promises and falling short on delivery, and betting huge on deregulation to be the first to market. Musk is essentially putting all of their eggs in the autonomy basket, but there's no telling when that will be viable, much less approved by states and the feds.

Also like Enron, they seem to be trying to enter markets they don't fully understand. They spent billions reinventing the vehicle manufacturing wheel only to end up where a lot of others already were, and their reliability and service history would seemingly preclude them from the semi market. They'll spend billions trying to break into it though. I'm a little surprised they haven't gone after the container ship market yet.