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166,638 Views | 1168 Replies | Last: 15 days ago by TxAG#2011
Gordo14
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aggieland09 said:

Stock up %4+

How do yall explain that? Everyone seems totally negative on Tesla.



Elon said he's going to have big news Thursday at 2pm - the day before the $1B in convertible debt. One last hype attempt to get shareholders to dilute their stake. With all the SEC stuff going on, it's probably the only hope they have for a capital raise.
TennAg
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aggieland09 said:

Stock up %4+

How do yall explain that? Everyone seems totally negative on Tesla.


1. Irrationalism
2. TSLA doesn't have as much float as you would think. Most of it is tied up in institutionals, Elon, or shorts. It doesn't take much to move it either way right now.
Gordo14
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Ah, the $35k version... Totally not because demand for the car has completely disappeared. This is effectively their third major price cut this year. Truly limitless demand, and infinite margins forever.
TennAg
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Closing most stores, another sizable layoff...super bullish.
Fizban
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So if Tesla doesn't release the $35k version they get attacked... and if they do release it they get attacked. I am detecting a trend here...

Tesla has said all along that they would release the low priced version when they could sell it profitably. It took slightly longer than they anticipated but it is finally here.

While they were at it they have released a firmware update to the RWD LR Model 3s increasing their range from 310 miles to 325 miles. They are also adding 5% increased peak power to all Model 3 versions via a software update. (including those on the road) Not a bad little gift to all the Model 3 owners out there.



Gordo14
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Elon also said Q1 wouldn't be profitable and there's literally no wait to buy any version of the model 3. So was this $35k model released now because they can make it profitability or was it made now out of desperation due to lack of demand. I think the answer is pretty obvious given less than a month ago on the conference call they said it was still 3-6 months away.

It's one thing if they plan to make a ton of money on the base model 3, but evidence suggests they are back in cash burn mode and discounting your production at the same volume isn't a great way to solve that problem - it's a hail mary for a product that doesn't sell anymore.
Fizban
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I think this has always been the target. Musk said as much last year when they released the mid-range version:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1053061826794016769?lang=en

I think they intentionally guided toward later in the year to avoid stealing any thunder from the European and Chinese rollout.

The guidance towards a Q1 loss was attributed to one time charges associated with them moving to an entirely online sales model, not an inability to make money on the SR Model 3. In any case there is only a month left in Q1 and we will learn more when they do their Q1 earnings.


TennAg
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Fizban said:


So if Tesla doesn't release the $35k version they get attacked... and if they do release it they get attacked. I am detecting a trend here...

Tesla has said all along that they would release the low priced version when they could sell it profitably. It took slightly longer than they anticipated but it is finally here.

While they were at it they have released a firmware update to the RWD LR Model 3s increasing their range from 310 miles to 325 miles. They are also adding 5% increased peak power to all Model 3 versions via a software update. (including those on the road) Not a bad little gift to all the Model 3 owners out there.






They are closing their stores. This isn't just part of the plan like you're making it sound. And make no mistake, they won't sell these profitably, however, it will temporarily help their cash flow problems.
Fizban
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They never had many stores... this isn't a principally retail company. Personally I suspect closing their showrooms will prove to be a mistake/temporary measure. There are people that just won't be able to wrap their heads around buying a car without going to a physical location to sit in one and test drive it.

Today does mark the first time they have had what should prove to be their complete Model 3 lineup available, Short Range, Mid Range, Long Range, Performance. It will be interesting to see them all out on the road.

DeLaHonta
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AG
So, just to sum it up:

Model X and Model S prices have been cut again

Q1 is now projected to be a loss

When asked what the profit margin of the $35k Model 3 is, Musk responded "Yeah, we're not going to answer questions like that. Next question."

Musk said all US reservation holders who place an order will get it by the end of next quarter, meaning that, at most, the fabled 400,000 reservation list is actually, at the very most, about 80,000 (~16 weeks x 5,000 per week).

On the 2018 Q4 earnings call (Jan 30), Musk said "We expect to introduce the standard range Model 3 sometime - probably the middle of this year is a rough, rough guess." Today, the same car can be delivered in 2-4 weeks.

When asked about demand for the car, Musk said they "don't know what the demand is. We'll see. We'll find out....it's foolish to focus on the reservation list. The car is out." This is just a few weeks after he said "The demand for Model 3 is insanely high. The inhibitor is affordability. It's just like people literally don't have the money to buy the car. It's got nothing to do with desire. They just don't have enough money in their bank account" in the 2018 Q4 earnings call.

Tesla is closing stores and, as a result, laying off even more staff. This comes shortly after they touted "we've opened 27 new store and service locations, bringing out our total locations worldwide to 378" during the Q4 earnings call.


I have to admit, I never actually thought the $35k Model 3 would ever get released, even if it being released now is not what was originally promised (tax credit is less now). However, for a company that, per themselves, have nearly unlimited demand for a high margin car that is just now being sold overseas, it seems odd that they'd start selling a car that potentially has a much smaller or even negative margin (who knows, because Musk didn't want to talk about it).

Don't get me wrongI'd love my next car to be a BEV. I just don't think Musk is going to be the one delivering it.
TennAg
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You left out that with the closing of the tesla stores, there's no longer any sales operation for whatever's left of the solar business.
Gordo14
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TennAg said:

You left out that with the closing of the tesla stores, there's no longer any sales operation for whatever's left of the solar business.


**** how do I buy my solar roof now? It's been commercial since 2017, after all. That acquisition of solar city was definitely not a bailout of his cousin's failing company - it was about the synergy of two fantastic businesses.
jamaggie06
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AG
This is completely backwards. They should have operated this way initially to keep costs down and generate cash flow. The fanboys and Musk worshippers were going to buy the car(s) anyway. Sight unseen.

It's the average person, who doesn't know the brand, who doesn't have any history with it, that won't be comfortable spending $40k+ on an unknown.

I'll buy a Sony speaker of Amazon, sight unseen. I know the brand. Have owned Sony products. Know others that have as well. So does everyone. But despite the fanboys dreams, lots and lots of people, don't know Tesla. Maybe they know the name. But theh don't know the reputation. And Tesla's online pressence is about as polar as you can get.

My real question is, why the need to conserve cash? Never have before. Why couldn't they refinance the bonds? Or issue more equity? The spigot has flowed endlessly for years. This seems like a bad omen.

This is when they need to be expanding showrooms, growing the brand and getting it out there for the non-fanboys to see and test drive.
LCE
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AG
TennAg. They still will be bankrupt within 6 months
TennAg
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LCE said:

TennAg. They still will be bankrupt within 6 months


If that's a question, yes I still believe they will go bk by the end of the year. However, do note that I began this thread with "strong chance of" and not a definitive prediction. At that time I had no idea Musk was insane enough to run the company into the ground, I had ch11 in mind, not ch7 which stretches things out. I still believe the timeframe roughly holds though. We'll see.
Duncan Idaho
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You might want to read up contribution margins to understand why the started with a $90k sports car and then went to a luxury sedan. Before going to a mass market offering.

jamaggie06
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AG
Did I mis-type? I never said anything about type or make and model. I was focused on the marketing/promotion aspect.

They were completely backward. They should have started with online sales and then, as they expanded to new customers who weren't fanboys, opened showrooms and hired salespeople.

For the cost it took to reel one sale in, the sales centers werent worthwhile. The fanboys however, would have purchased anyway, online or otherwise.
bmks270
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AG
Tesla is a really well run organization (sarcasm).

More OHSA violations than the other 10 combined.

http://www.thedrive.com/news/26727/tesla-had-3-times-as-many-osha-violations-as-the-10-largest-us-plants-combined





Also.... production per employee is the worst of any manufacturer:


LCE
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AG
In many years ago at 30 or so and out at 50. Back in at 265 and out last Friday. My luck it will go up
bmks270
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AG
Some positive news....

If it works as advertised, these rapid chargers could really be a game changer.

75 miles of range in 5 minutes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/07/tesla-debuts-new-v3-superchargers-to-let-drivers-fill-up-faster.html
Guitarsoup
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AG
I take it Texags doesn't think I should buy a Model 3 as a commuter.
Endo Ag
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AG
All the people who've driven one say yes.

Best car you'll ever drive. Worst part is not caring anymore about all the cars you used to be so impressed by.
JobSecurity
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AG
Tesla reversing course, will raise prices of cars to keep stores open less than two weeks after deciding to close all stores and lower prices.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/11/18259580/tesla-price-hike-stores-reversal
The Collective
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AG
Huge WTF watching the decision making process. It is worth following for the entertainment.
bmks270
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AG
CJS4715 said:

Huge WTF watching the decision making process. It is worth following for the entertainment.


It's as if they didn't run the numbers before announcing the decision.
Bird Poo
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AG
Tusk's erratic decision making makes Trump look stable.
TennAg
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Speaking of decision making...

bmks270
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AG
Jalopnik article paints a really negative picture for Tesla.

Store traffic declining and sales compensation structure slashed (maybe to get them to leave before lay-off) so sales employees are unmotivated, looking for new employers.

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-employees-call-bull****-on-online-sales-claims-am-1833201246
TennAg
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Guitarsoup said:

I take it Texags doesn't think I should buy a Model 3 as a commuter.
Go for it. Just don't keep it past warranty, or get in a wreck, or take it to a non-touchless car wash. Also be sure everyone in the backseat knows how to get out in the event of a vehicle fire.

If Tesla files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, there's a chance the new owner(s) will honor the warranties and supply parts to maintain goodwill and customer base.

If Tesla files for Chapter 7, you will not have a warranty, there won't be many (if any) parts for repair, the car will likely become bricked due to no software support.

But there are definitely cool aspects to the car if that's what you're in the market for.
Pasquale Liucci
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AG
I f***ing love that Rocket Boy was like "rofl omg managing a massive manufacturing and supply chain org will be so easy for me because I'm a genius unlike these other rubes" until the rubber met the road. Now the bottom is coming up to smack him in the face and he's losing the little stability he had.
Gordo14
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TennAg said:

Guitarsoup said:

I take it Texags doesn't think I should buy a Model 3 as a commuter.
Go for it. Just don't keep it past warranty, or get in a wreck, or take it to a non-touchless car wash. Also be sure everyone in the backseat knows how to get out in the event of a vehicle fire.

If Tesla files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, there's a chance the new owner(s) will honor the warranties and supply parts to maintain goodwill and customer base.

If Tesla files for Chapter 7, you will not have a warranty, there won't be many (if any) parts for repair, the car will likely become bricked due to no software support.

But there are definitely cool aspects to the car if that's what you're in the market for.


Most of the time when model 3 owners talk about their car being bricked, they follow with the important qualifier that it's "an amazing car though". Definitely not a cult.

Anyways. Anybody else hear the news Tesla just laid off half of their global recruiting staff? Seems like a company with limitless growth potential. Bears are just too stupid to understand the genius behind this totally not desperate move.
bmks270
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AG
Tesla issued $13.8 million in new stock to buy car transport trailers.

What does it say when a multi-billion dollar company is giving away stock to make purchases?


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/tesla-issues-13point8-million-in-stock-to-buy-trailers-to-transport-cars.html
bmks270
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AG
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-13/when-elon-musk-tried-to-destroy-tesla-whistleblower-martin-tripp

Is Musk a sociopath? Is that why he drives his companies and employees so hard.

A Tesla whistle blower was accused of planning a mass shooting by an "anonymous" tip to the police. The whistle blower believes it was Musk himself who made the call.

Quote:

Musk's treatment of Tripp threatens to complicate this legal and regulatory mess. The security manager at the Gigafactory, an ex-military guy with a high-and-tight haircut named Sean Gouthro, has filed a whistleblower report with the SEC. Gouthro says Tesla's security operation behaved unethically in its zeal to nail the leaker. Investigators, he claims, hacked into Tripp's phone, had him followed, and misled police about the surveillance. Gouthro says that Tripp didn't sabotage Tesla or hack anything and that Musk knew this and sought to damage his reputation by spreading misinformation.
A Tesla spokeswoman said in a statement that Gouthro's allegations "are untrue and sensationalized," but she didn't comment on specifics. She pointed out that Gouthro never raised any concerns until he was fired for "poor performance." Gouthro disputes this and says his performance reviews were mostly positive. He says he's coming forward to let regulators and the public know what Tesla is capable of.
"They had the ability to do things I didn't even know existed," he says. "It scared the **** out of me."


gvine07
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AG
The craziest part of all this. The market caps and revenue:
Tesla $48.94 B. $21B in revenue
Ford $34.1 B $160B in revenue
GM $54.4 B $147B in revenue

I'd say I have more faith in Tesla than most of the posters on this board, but wow it's overvalued! Best-case it becomes Ford or GM with a battery/solar panels side hustle.
TennAg
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bmks270 said:

Tesla issued $13.8 million in new stock to buy car transport trailers.

What does it say when a multi-billion dollar company is giving away stock to make purchases?


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/tesla-issues-13point8-million-in-stock-to-buy-trailers-to-transport-cars.html


I'll be interested to see if they try to pay any of their parts suppliers with stock or, more likely, "absorb them for vertical integration." They obviously have almost zero cash to pay bills.
 
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