TennAg said:

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For anyone who missed Friday's tweet, Elon admitted that they over-automated the line for the model 3. Never mind that extreme automation is primary premise of tlsa's valuation. Never mind that he's been ridiculing the legacy manufacturers as slow, incompetent and archaic for years.

The dude's absolutely full of **** and will be a joke within a couple years.

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Elon Musk is demonstrative of when you are the first person in an industry you get to make the rules and blaze the trail. When you get into an industry that has been around for 100 years, you may or may not make a splash and find out that over the last 100 years some companies have learned some hard lessons about to do and not do business. Neat car, but if you don't make enough to make your business profitable it won't be around for long.

Well put. In the same way, once you realize they are taking a 30% haircut on every unit sold, you start to realize that any other manufacturer could put out the same vehicles if allowed the same input costs.

Burdizzo said:

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TennAg said:

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For anyone who missed Friday's tweet, Elon admitted that they over-automated the line for the model 3. Never mind that extreme automation is primary premise of tlsa's valuation. Never mind that he's been ridiculing the legacy manufacturers as slow, incompetent and archaic for years.

The dude's absolutely full of **** and will be a joke within a couple years.

---

Elon Musk is demonstrative of when you are the first person in an industry you get to make the rules and blaze the trail. When you get into an industry that has been around for 100 years, you may or may not make a splash and find out that over the last 100 years some companies have learned some hard lessons about to do and not do business. Neat car, but if you don't make enough to make your business profitable it won't be around for long.

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the auto industry relays on lean manufacturing and they barely make a profit.

The other thing they do is divide the labor into specialties and have relationships with countless suppliers for components for their complicated machines. Elon Musk wants to vertically integrate and make everything for his cars himself. That may work in some industries, but there is probably a good reason autos don't.

Burdizzo said:

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The other thing they do is divide the labor into specialties and have relationships with countless suppliers for components for their complicated machines. Elon Musk wants to vertically integrate and make everything for his cars himself. That may work in some industries, but there is probably a good reason autos don't.

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the outsourcing so allows the supplier to own the inventory until it is used. The auto company has less capital tied up in bits and bobs. Have a friend who works on the supplier side of that relationship.

Burdizzo said:

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Car and Driver has a reveal article this month on Jaguar's I-Pace, mid-sized, 5 passenger, electic sedan, that looks like a direct competitor to the Tesla Model 3.

Unlike TSLA, Jag has decades of experience mass producing cars. They are smart enough to buy the batteries from people that know about manufacturing batteries (Panasonic). They are also in the business of knowing the car business well enough to know where the margins are made. Assuming this car doesn't have Lucas electrical, it will be yet another competitor to a car TSLA is struggling to get to market.

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Fwiw, Jaguars have traditionally spent more time in the shop than on the road. The I-Pace will likely start at ~$70k and top out over $100k, closer to the Model S, not 3. Also does Jaguar plan on developing a nationwide supercharging system that Tesla currently has?

Ragoo said:

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Burdizzo said:

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TennAg said:

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For anyone who missed Friday's tweet, Elon admitted that they over-automated the line for the model 3. Never mind that extreme automation is primary premise of tlsa's valuation. Never mind that he's been ridiculing the legacy manufacturers as slow, incompetent and archaic for years.

The dude's absolutely full of **** and will be a joke within a couple years.

---

Elon Musk is demonstrative of when you are the first person in an industry you get to make the rules and blaze the trail. When you get into an industry that has been around for 100 years, you may or may not make a splash and find out that over the last 100 years some companies have learned some hard lessons about to do and not do business. Neat car, but if you don't make enough to make your business profitable it won't be around for long.

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the auto industry relays on lean manufacturing and they barely make a profit.

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At least they make a profit.

bmks270 said:

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Ragoo said:

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Burdizzo said:

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TennAg said:

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For anyone who missed Friday's tweet, Elon admitted that they over-automated the line for the model 3. Never mind that extreme automation is primary premise of tlsa's valuation. Never mind that he's been ridiculing the legacy manufacturers as slow, incompetent and archaic for years.

The dude's absolutely full of **** and will be a joke within a couple years.

---

Elon Musk is demonstrative of when you are the first person in an industry you get to make the rules and blaze the trail. When you get into an industry that has been around for 100 years, you may or may not make a splash and find out that over the last 100 years some companies have learned some hard lessons about to do and not do business. Neat car, but if you don't make enough to make your business profitable it won't be around for long.

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the auto industry relays on lean manufacturing and they barely make a profit.

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At least they make a profit.

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After one or more bankruptcies and a taxpayer bailout or two.

tysker said:

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Burdizzo said:

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Car and Driver has a reveal article this month on Jaguar's I-Pace, mid-sized, 5 passenger, electic sedan, that looks like a direct competitor to the Tesla Model 3.

Unlike TSLA, Jag has decades of experience mass producing cars. They are smart enough to buy the batteries from people that know about manufacturing batteries (Panasonic). They are also in the business of knowing the car business well enough to know where the margins are made. Assuming this car doesn't have Lucas electrical, it will be yet another competitor to a car TSLA is struggling to get to market.

---

Fwiw, Jaguars have traditionally spent more time in the shop than on the road. The I-Pace will likely start at ~$70k and top out over $100k, closer to the Model S, not 3. Also does Jaguar plan on developing a nationwide supercharging system that Tesla currently has?

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Jaguar is in the car business, not the fuel business. Numerous other car companies are the same, including people like Ford, GM, Nissan, BMW, and Toyota who are already selling electic cars based on existing electric infrastructure. Apparently, TSLA thinks they need to be in the car, battery, rocket, and extension cord business. The clock is ticking on their success.

If they are not already there, TSLAs cars are on the path to becoming the BetaMax of electric cars.

tysker said:

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Burdizzo said:

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Car and Driver has a reveal article this month on Jaguar's I-Pace, mid-sized, 5 passenger, electic sedan, that looks like a direct competitor to the Tesla Model 3.

Unlike TSLA, Jag has decades of experience mass producing cars. They are smart enough to buy the batteries from people that know about manufacturing batteries (Panasonic). They are also in the business of knowing the car business well enough to know where the margins are made. Assuming this car doesn't have Lucas electrical, it will be yet another competitor to a car TSLA is struggling to get to market.

---

Fwiw, Jaguars have traditionally spent more time in the shop than on the road.

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Teslas also spend more time in the shop than the b road. If anything that might be a competitive advantage for jaguar because they have better service center access than Tesla.

Burdizzo said:

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tysker said:

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Burdizzo said:

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Car and Driver has a reveal article this month on Jaguar's I-Pace, mid-sized, 5 passenger, electic sedan, that looks like a direct competitor to the Tesla Model 3.

Unlike TSLA, Jag has decades of experience mass producing cars. They are smart enough to buy the batteries from people that know about manufacturing batteries (Panasonic). They are also in the business of knowing the car business well enough to know where the margins are made. Assuming this car doesn't have Lucas electrical, it will be yet another competitor to a car TSLA is struggling to get to market.

---

Fwiw, Jaguars have traditionally spent more time in the shop than on the road. The I-Pace will likely start at ~$70k and top out over $100k, closer to the Model S, not 3. Also does Jaguar plan on developing a nationwide supercharging system that Tesla currently has?

---

Jaguar is in the car business, not the fuel business. Numerous other car companies are the same, including people like Ford, GM, Nissan, BMW, and Toyota who are already selling electic cars based on existing electric infrastructure. Apparently, TSLA thinks they need to be in the car, battery, rocket, and extension cord business. The clock is ticking on their success.

If they are not already there, TSLAs cars are on the path to becoming the BetaMax of electric cars.

---

And that electric infrastructure is poor to non-existent for most consumers. If that were the case, the sales of non-Tesla EVs would be increasing on a relative basis but its just not. For the value, the Volt is arguably a better car than the model 3 but everyone agrees the refueling infrastructure away from the home is subpar,

TennAg said:

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Hearing quality/reliability smack from a Tesla fan...too funny

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Me? No I'm an Audi fan. But that doesnt change the fact that Jaguars were overpriced pieces of **** until the company was bought by Tata.

I'm a little ignorant here. Is Tesla building a proprietary charging network around the country?

Seems silly for every company to have their own standard.

So, does TSLA have the capital (or access to capital) to

Fix their mass production issues
Fix their quality issues
Get a critical mass of charging stations online
Sell enough cars to satisfy the people who put down deposits and are still waiting on delivery
(Fifth thing here)

...before the Goodwill of the investors and lenders runs out?

Since this is the B&P board, I think these are legitimate questions.

Electricity is electricity but TSLAs supercharging technology is proprietary. For all EVs can use standard 110v outlet but it takes quite a while to get a 'full' charge. This might make sense if you're only driving 20-50 miles per day but if you are driving back and forth from DFW to BCS for instance, you're going to need to refuel at least once on the drive. TSLA supercharging tech is supposed to make the refueling process much faster for the longer drives.

Burdizzo said:

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So, does TSLA have the capital (or access to capital) to

Fix their mass production issues
Fix their quality issues
Get a critical mass of charging stations online
Sell enough cars to satisfy the people who put down deposits and are still waiting on delivery
(Fifth thing here)

...before the Goodwill of the investors and lenders runs out?

Since this is the B&P board, I think these are legitimate questions.

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Its a sentiment play right?

Quote:

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The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

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Can the shorts stay solvent long enough or be able to borrow enough stock to make any real money? Even if they are correct in their analysis, can the shorts bear the increasing costs especially in the derivatives market.

Maybe a better way to play it in the short run is as a momentum or volatility play

tysker said:

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Burdizzo said:

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tysker said:

---

Burdizzo said:

---

Car and Driver has a reveal article this month on Jaguar's I-Pace, mid-sized, 5 passenger, electic sedan, that looks like a direct competitor to the Tesla Model 3.

Unlike TSLA, Jag has decades of experience mass producing cars. They are smart enough to buy the batteries from people that know about manufacturing batteries (Panasonic). They are also in the business of knowing the car business well enough to know where the margins are made. Assuming this car doesn't have Lucas electrical, it will be yet another competitor to a car TSLA is struggling to get to market.

---

Fwiw, Jaguars have traditionally spent more time in the shop than on the road. The I-Pace will likely start at ~$70k and top out over $100k, closer to the Model S, not 3. Also does Jaguar plan on developing a nationwide supercharging system that Tesla currently has?

---

Jaguar is in the car business, not the fuel business. Numerous other car companies are the same, including people like Ford, GM, Nissan, BMW, and Toyota who are already selling electic cars based on existing electric infrastructure. Apparently, TSLA thinks they need to be in the car, battery, rocket, and extension cord business. The clock is ticking on their success.

If they are not already there, TSLAs cars are on the path to becoming the BetaMax of electric cars.

---

And that electric infrastructure is poor to non-existent for most consumers. If that were the case, the sales of non-Tesla EVs would be increasing on a relative basis but its just not. For the value, the Volt is arguably a better car than the model 3 but everyone agrees the refueling infrastructure away from the home is subpar,

---

Tesla isn't selling because of the infrastructure, it's selling due to cult following. Beyond a few fanatics, nobody is going to accept 2 hour charge times every 200-300 miles on a long road trip.

Cult followings CAN become mainstream. I never thought I would be an Apple guy.

200-300 miles a charge isn't anything to sneeze at. With the rate of technological improvements, I don't think range is going to an issue for the standard daily driver.

Beat the Hell said:

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Cult followings CAN become mainstream. I never thought I would be an Apple guy.

200-300 miles a charge isn't anything to sneeze at. With the rate of technological improvements, I don't think range is going to an issue for the standard daily driver.

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My point was that the "supercharger" network is irrelevant. Anybody that drives long distances will own two cars if they are determined to own EVs. So I don't view it as a competitive advantage over jaguar.

The difference between Apple and Tesla is that Apple makes high margin products that are easily affordable by the general population, and Tesla builds luxury cars (especially given that the model 3 seems to need a $50k+ price point despite the interior being completely stripped bare) at negative margins (Tesla doesn't include R&D, SG&A, or distribution network costs in their listed margins, despite not having a dealership model)

The most confounding thing is that no matter what happens, it is spun as good news.

Musk comes out and says "I ****ed up with all the robots. Humans are underrated." Stock goes up and some even claim that its great bc it shows Tesla is willing to change/adapt. However, the story from day one five plus years ago, was that the machines were going to build the machines to build the cars, and this would allow Tesla to sell a mass market car at an affordable price with high margins. That was the story the stock price has been built on. That all changed. No more machines making machines. Now its, 24 hour shifts, 7 days a week. A compelte change in capital expess from technology to labor, but the news changes nothing. Its crazy. It won't last and there's lots of money to be made being short, but it's all a question of timing. If they can get another capital raise, they can stave off bankruptcy for another year, but they will never be profitable. However, as long as they aren't literally bankrupt, the stock will remain completely detached from fundamentals.

jamaggie06 said:

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The most confounding thing is that no matter what happens, it is spun as good news.

Musk comes out and says "I ****ed up with all the robots. Humans are underrated." Stock goes up and some even claim that its great bc it shows Tesla is willing to change/adapt. However, the story from day one five plus years ago, was that the machines were going to build the machines to build the cars, and this would allow Tesla to sell a mass market car at an affordable price with high margins. That was the story the stock price has been built on. That all changed. No more machines making machines. Now its, 24 hour shifts, 7 days a week. A compelte change in capital expess from technology to labor, but the news changes nothing. Its crazy. It won't last and there's lots of money to be made being short, but it's all a question of timing. If they can get another capital raise, they can stave off bankruptcy for another year, but they will never be profitable. However, as long as they aren't literally bankrupt, the stock will remain completely detached from fundamentals.

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Tesla is under investigation from the SEC right now, and may not be able to dilute their equity while the SEC investigation is ongoing. Furthermore, they are tapped out on possible collateral for their debt. It's possible they may not have access to capital markets at all, but I admit that's pure speculation on my part.

I get the sneaky suspicion that a Chinese company could very well move in and give them a lifeline.

Tesla also being investigated by the State of California for workplace conditions.

Apparently Musk doesn't like the color yellow.

https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/tesla-model-3-production-goal-6000-units-per-week/

Makes sense that he was kissing Trump's ass right after he was elected. Didn't work so here we are. I wouldn't touch that stock with a 10 ft pole.

bmks270 said:

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Said they are going to 24/7 shifts and will hire thousands of workers.

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Eroding margins even further...

Surprised no one here is talking about the conference call today

It was something else. Straight out of the Jeff Skilling playbook

He sounded both tired and unhinged. It was very strange.

And yet most analysts really havent changed their opinions or targets. Definitely a battleground stock right now. The institutional money has a much lower cost basis and is probably making a nice rate loaning out their stock to all the shorts out there. Institutional money is not nearly as worried about a 20-25% correction that retail investors will be.

Ranger222 said:

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Surprised no one here is talking about the conference call today

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That was a disaster. Is he the next Elizibeth Holmes?
He either sounded clueless or desperate. Refusing to answer basic questions. When one analyst pointed out this was the 4th quarter out of 6 with over a billion in cash burn, how are you going to get working capital he answered "not cool" and then went of topic about how dry and boring the questions are. He does not seem to be CEO material IMHO and the board instead of offering him a huge raise should start grooming his replacement. He seems much more an idea guy that should sell out early on and let people interested in managing manage.

TSLA has taken a backseat in Musk's mind and his focus is on SpaceX. He needs to step aside with TSLA and focus on SpaceX if his heart and mind aren't on TSLA anymore. He's screwing over a lot of people and I will continue my short until he leaves.

Believe me that all analysts who heard the call had their ears perk up when he wouldn't answer basic questions on cash burn and reservations. He made a huge mistake, everyone, including the biggest pumper of all analysts, is calling his behavior "bizarre."

Now people might actually start digging into facts and discounting some of the hype.