Heineken-Ashi said:
If BTC cannot hold the $59k bottom from a couple hours ago, there is potential for downside anywhere between $45k and $55k. As of now though, we have a potential completed triangle. If it's to remain, price should rocket up rather quickly which is common for the move that follows triangle corrections. Resistance is very obviously $65k.
If BTC does break below $59k, I feel fairly confident we will get our lower entries on miners. If you thought $15 MARA and $15 CLSK sounded good. Wait until you get $10's.
Here's the potential completed triangle.
And zoomed out, here's what we'd be looking at. But I don't like that the correction would have completed so shallow, not even correcting the 3rd wave by 23.6% ( the minimum expectation). But you never know.
Because it's uncommon for retracements to be so shallow, I'm leaning to something more like this still pointing toward the end of May and $48K.
And as you can see, it fits well with the most common 4th wave retracement level (of the length of Wave 3) being hit (38.2%) in an ending diagonal C wave that channels perfectly and hits the bottom of the rising channel of this entire bull run (more clearly shown below).
The 5th wave targets in this case would be 100% of the length of Wave 1 from the bottom of Wave 4 (orange) or 61.8% of the length of Waves 1 through 3 from the bottom of Wave 4 (blue). And 200% is the common landing area for a 5th wave when the 3rd hits the 161.8% level.
Now, the market doesn't have to follow a predictable, clean path like this. Especially a 24/7 market open to the entire world. But EW and fib pinball is a technical method to measure sentiment. And NOTHING has more worldwide sentiment than BTC.
I am a holder of BTC, as this impulse does not appear to be over. I would need to see a break below $42k to turn bearish BTC. I will use the levels outlined on the charts as places to add to my position, and I will certainly be adding positions in miners if we get the clean 48K hit as shown above. But the meat of the move has happened. 5th waves are never guaranteed, and when they do happen, they have a tendency to be chaotic, often undershooting their expected target in overlapping fashion as they move up, or overshooting in extremely impulsive fashion leaving traders feeling like they never got a gentlemen's entry and waiting for the retrace. They are finality moves, but it usually isn't until halfway through the 3rd wave that the general public has entered the market, getting trapped in the 4th wave. The 5th wave is usually the most manic sentiment period as newer adopters feel like its a new bull market while smart money is preparing their exit. When it ends, the newer adopters are left holding bags waiting for a retrace when a complete reversal is underway.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)