Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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POWL crushed earnings. Needs above $169 with follow through above $180 and it could be headed to new highs.

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So after going down all day, my june 190 calls might go...up?

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Send us details tomorrow. These sound like a 10 banger.

SMCI holders after the bell:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1algqd8/when_investing_goes_wrong_in_live_time/

Bonfire.1996 said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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POWL crushed earnings. Needs above $169 with follow through above $180 and it could be headed to new highs.

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So after going down all day, my june 190 calls might go...up?

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Send us details tomorrow. These sound like a 10 banger.

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I'm so hard right now... lol
I was trying to put in a bid for one at $4 this morning but screwed up and bought 4 at the ask (6.5). Down like $600 immediately but i spent the day trying to convince myself it was a shakedown, macro, eom, etc, and ended up buying one more for 4.5. I never put $3k in options so hopefully this works out. Been paying too much attention to prog and thinking a 1:2 split gets it run up to $100 quick for 60% gain ignoring premium. If it goes bonkers...sizzler time!
I don't know if i shared it here but i read that powl is tied in with renewables, something they make is being used for tying in the infrastructure on wind and solar installations. I have a lot of old o&g friends who are in renewables now and i can't believe how much that boondoggle is booming...but if it's good for powl it's good for me!

That's looking pretty damn good right about now

Heineken, you see the potential for sub $120 on AMD after this earnings drop?

Bonfire.1996 said:

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That's two consecutive quarters now where POWL has maintained a $1.3 Billion backlog. I would wager the $2.00 EPS number per quarter is now a floor, which means this stock is now changed, forever. Price targets will start coming and ratings issuances should begin.

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Good stuff

They have been running around 23x multiple so with $2.00 per qtr/$8.00 per year this is a $184. Maybe $2.25 qtr or $9.00 a year and you are $207.

El_duderino said:

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Heineken, you see the potential for sub $120 on AMD after this earnings drop?

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I'd be surprised. It's very oversold. I'm watching $140. Could be a potential buy for a retracement back up at the very least. But I haven't looked at it in a couple weeks outside of glancing since it broke my support for the immediate bullish setup.

AgCPA95 said:

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Bonfire.1996 said:

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That's two consecutive quarters now where POWL has maintained a $1.3 Billion backlog. I would wager the $2.00 EPS number per quarter is now a floor, which means this stock is now changed, forever. Price targets will start coming and ratings issuances should begin.

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Good stuff

They have been running around 23x multiple so with $2.00 per qtr/$8.00 per year this is a $184. Maybe $2.25 qtr or $9.00 a year and you are $207.

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Also, me saying $2.00 per quarter is the floor, I mean that's a sub par quarter in my opinion. The will be pushing $12 EPS in the next 12 months.

Got me a little dose of POWL a couple days ago because of this thread. It went down. Earnings… it went up. Should've bought more.

Where is this thing going?

mhc06 said:

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you sure have a lot of fancy ways of saying if something doesn't go higher it could go lower

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What would you say your analytical system is? He/she has contributed a ton to this board, and provided their metrics/background, so I am just curious what your view is. Thx.

Anastasia Beaverhaven said:

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Nagler said:

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Got me a little dose of POWL a couple days ago because of this thread. It went down. Earnings… it went up. Should've bought more.

Where is this thing going?

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Bonfire projects 12eps in the next 12 months. Thats around 276 per share if I have that correct.

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Their forward looking PE will come down a bit unless their backlog builds more. If it stays constant like it has for 180+ days, PE should settle at 20-25.

Still, 30-40% upside from here.

I do expect SMCI to announce a split sometime before the next earnings report. There will be pressure from institutional holders to calm the volatility.

ProgN said:

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Taking a small gamble. I just bot 1 POWL 5/17 160c @$3.50. If they hit $200 after earnings then $4K+ profit for $350 bet in a month are odds that are just my game.


ETA: I also have a GTC order for 1 POWL 6/21 180c @ $2.50.

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I was filled on the 180c too.

Bonfire.1996 said:

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I do expect SMCI to announce a split sometime before the next earnings report. There will be pressure from institutional holders to calm the volatility.

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SMCI raised guidance for the full year but Wall Street is treating them like your ex with a voodoo doll of you because they didn't split. I'll be adding to my position on their dumbassery.

I believe POWL will set a new high after the market panics over JPow's more hawkish comments tomorrow so I'm going to be patient.

Somebody tell me why I shouldn't put my entire net worth into POWL. He's relentless.

what the heck happened today?

every single one of my stocks are red. EVERY SINGLE ONE, about 35 of them. tech, travel, mutual funds, steel, retail.

62strat said:

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what the heck happened today?

every single one of my stocks are red. EVERY SINGLE ONE, about 35 of them. tech, travel, mutual funds, steel, retail.

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ECI came out hot today and JPow expected to be more hawkish tomorrow afternoon.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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SMCI is making a series of 3-wave moves since it's top. There are only 3 possibilities when a trend, whether up or down, operates in 3-wave segments.

1. Corrections - this could be the case with a bottom potentially in, but the overall structure forming the recent bottom is not common and should not be defaulted to until all other potentials are ruled out. If it was though, we would have in place what's called a "double three" correction, where instead of the final leg (the c-wave) taking shape as an impulsive 5 wave downward structure (all C waves in a three wave correction are 5-wave structures), it completes in 3 waves. Like I said, not very common. So I'm hesitant.

2. Leading Diagonal - this is a 5-wave move that leads off either a longer-term impulsive structure (in this case downward) or the first leg of a longer-term three wave correction (also would be down lower). LD's are 5-waves once complete, but they overlap in either expanding or contracting fashion (unlike impulsive 5-wave structures which don't overlap and more resemble strong lightning bolts fitting nicely in a channel). The chart below is showing a LD pointing down. All 5 waves break down into 3-wave moves. The kicker is that once complete, you will see another 3-wave move back up to one of the supply zones, likely between $850 and $1000. Then you will see an even sharper drop to new lows. Resistance is clearly marked on the chart for the wave (iv) top I am watching for as early as tomorrow (earnings day) and possibly Wednesday, Fed day. Also notice the orange line from the top to the potential bottom, being used as support and resistance along the way.

3. An ending diagonal - These are finality moves that happen as either the 5th wave of an impulse or the c-wave of a three-wave correction. Considering we are moving off a significant top, this cannot be an ED, leaving us with just the first two options, and the LD being the highest probability until proven otherwise.

For me to pivot to "bottom is in", I'd need to see a strong break of $950 with follow through above $1000. And no retracements below $820 at any point.

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Topped out at $947 after earnings before tanking. Will need some more candles to fill in to see what the likely trajectory is. And I wouldn't be surprised for a mini recovery in the morning. But pressure is firmly down.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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If BTC cannot hold the $59k bottom from a couple hours ago, there is potential for downside anywhere between $45k and $55k. As of now though, we have a potential completed triangle. If it's to remain, price should rocket up rather quickly which is common for the move that follows triangle corrections. Resistance is very obviously $65k.

If BTC does break below $59k, I feel fairly confident we will get our lower entries on miners. If you thought $15 MARA and $15 CLSK sounded good. Wait until you get $10's.

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Here's the potential completed triangle.



And zoomed out, here's what we'd be looking at. But I don't like that the correction would have completed so shallow, not even correcting the 3rd wave by 23.6% ( the minimum expectation). But you never know.



Because it's uncommon for retracements to be so shallow, I'm leaning to something more like this still pointing toward the end of May and $48K.



And as you can see, it fits well with the most common 4th wave retracement level (of the length of Wave 3) being hit (38.2%) in an ending diagonal C wave that channels perfectly and hits the bottom of the rising channel of this entire bull run (more clearly shown below).



The 5th wave targets in this case would be 100% of the length of Wave 1 from the bottom of Wave 4 (orange) or 61.8% of the length of Waves 1 through 3 from the bottom of Wave 4 (blue). And 200% is the common landing area for a 5th wave when the 3rd hits the 161.8% level.

Now, the market doesn't have to follow a predictable, clean path like this. Especially a 24/7 market open to the entire world. But EW and fib pinball is a technical method to measure sentiment. And NOTHING has more worldwide sentiment than BTC.

I am a holder of BTC, as this impulse does not appear to be over. I would need to see a break below $42k to turn bearish BTC. I will use the levels outlined on the charts as places to add to my position, and I will certainly be adding positions in miners if we get the clean 48K hit as shown above. But the meat of the move has happened. 5th waves are never guaranteed, and when they do happen, they have a tendency to be chaotic, often undershooting their expected target in overlapping fashion as they move up, or overshooting in extremely impulsive fashion leaving traders feeling like they never got a gentlemen's entry and waiting for the retrace. They are finality moves, but it usually isn't until halfway through the 3rd wave that the general public has entered the market, getting trapped in the 4th wave. The 5th wave is usually the most manic sentiment period as newer adopters feel like its a new bull market while smart money is preparing their exit. When it ends, the newer adopters are left holding bags waiting for a retrace when a complete reversal is underway.