No one is claiming Musk isn't brilliant. But he had first mover advantage in both Spacex and Tesla (Tesla also a niche vehicle space by the way and not mainstream in the vehicle space even still). He won't have that here by about 7-10 years just on the space side alone, and about 25 years on the ground for mobile networks. And while he boasts a bigger market cap, the world's telecom providers together are well above $1 trillion in market cap. They have already banded together to ensure their continued dominance of high bandwidth streaming worldwide anywhere, even the middle of the ocean on ASTS satellite technology. Add to that governments lining up behind the telecom providers and ASTS and it's not a stretch to predict they're going to dominate in the satellite mobile comm space and that even governments fear relying on spacex as a monopoly.
Spacex also has a couple technological disadvantages that can't be overcome by bluster. Their frequencies and low satellite power will require line of sight and won't even make it through some tree canopies or metal. They also won't allow high bandwidth streaming until they resolve how users will be allocated to each satellite as they move. On top of that, their satellites will have a shorter lifespan than the ones the telecom providers are using (by about half), requiring revolving door launches just to keep the constellation going. That's massive cash burn.
Add to that, the market SpaceX is going for here is not a high dollar high margin, just sit there and collect cash segment. That's what the telecom providers will have with ASTS, which will literally provide the technology for you and me and every other human to never drop high bandwidth data streaming capable signals even when on the open ocean or in a remote national park.
SpaceX on the other hand is going for a completely different market than that one and they aren't even going to be ready to play in that high bandwidth data everywhere on your phone space until the early (at best) to mid (more likely) 2030s, which by that time we will have all been accustomed to the much better performance of the major carriers whose satellites are strong enough to get a signal through your roof without needing you to have a satellite antenna. SpaceX can't offer that.
I don't doubt that SpaceX will continue to dominate and do really well in the markets they are well positioned for. I have a little bit of their stock and will continue to accumulate it over the years as it hits what I think are favorable prices. But the idea that they are going to dominate the telecom industry in any meaningful way ignores too many inconvenient realities.
just like Tesla jumping onto the scene into a niche market did not displace the bigger auto makers, and it would have been silly to even suggest they would back in the mid 2000s, SpaceX will not displace the big telecom giants in the next 10-20 years.
Spacex also has a couple technological disadvantages that can't be overcome by bluster. Their frequencies and low satellite power will require line of sight and won't even make it through some tree canopies or metal. They also won't allow high bandwidth streaming until they resolve how users will be allocated to each satellite as they move. On top of that, their satellites will have a shorter lifespan than the ones the telecom providers are using (by about half), requiring revolving door launches just to keep the constellation going. That's massive cash burn.
Add to that, the market SpaceX is going for here is not a high dollar high margin, just sit there and collect cash segment. That's what the telecom providers will have with ASTS, which will literally provide the technology for you and me and every other human to never drop high bandwidth data streaming capable signals even when on the open ocean or in a remote national park.
SpaceX on the other hand is going for a completely different market than that one and they aren't even going to be ready to play in that high bandwidth data everywhere on your phone space until the early (at best) to mid (more likely) 2030s, which by that time we will have all been accustomed to the much better performance of the major carriers whose satellites are strong enough to get a signal through your roof without needing you to have a satellite antenna. SpaceX can't offer that.
I don't doubt that SpaceX will continue to dominate and do really well in the markets they are well positioned for. I have a little bit of their stock and will continue to accumulate it over the years as it hits what I think are favorable prices. But the idea that they are going to dominate the telecom industry in any meaningful way ignores too many inconvenient realities.
just like Tesla jumping onto the scene into a niche market did not displace the bigger auto makers, and it would have been silly to even suggest they would back in the mid 2000s, SpaceX will not displace the big telecom giants in the next 10-20 years.
