This will be big .

Much bigger than 2008.

2008 will pale in comparison.

But for now , it’s been postponed.

— TIC TOC TIC (@TicTocTick) March 14, 2023

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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API Numbers

Crude = +1.1M
Gas = -4.6M
Distill = -2.9M
Cushing = -1.0M

Draw of 7.4M

EIA tomorrow

Don't fall for the crude manipulation.

IMO, we are headed for the same run in energy that we had last year going into this time. However, this time, JB doesn't have the SPR backstop to flood the market with lower prices at the pump.

GLTA

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Bonfire1996 said:

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SF2004 said:

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FJ43 said:

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Just read this.

Hmmmm…….

This will be big .

Much bigger than 2008.

2008 will pale in comparison.

But for now , it’s been postponed.

— TIC TOC TIC (@TicTocTick) March 14, 2023

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There isn't a catalyst left for a crash I don't think. The fed backstopping liquidity problems at banks allows them to ride out the upside down securities.

The fed can print money to pay dept and just like pre Covid as long as it doesn't actually make it into the system and sits on banks balance sheets we good.

The bail out allows the fed to essentially QT and QE at the same time.

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FED has earmarked $25 Billion SO FAR but the unrealized losses in bank investments is $700 Billion.

So it's delayed

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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lobwedgephil said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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API Numbers

Crude = +1.1M
Gas = -4.6M
Distill = -2.9M
Cushing = -1.0M

Draw of 7.4M

EIA tomorrow

Don't fall for the crude manipulation.

IMO, we are headed for the same run in energy that we had last year going into this time. However, this time, JB doesn't have the SPR backstop to flood the market with lower prices at the pump.

GLTA

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I am as bullish energy as you are, but the flow into energy this week has been as bearish as I have ever seen. Thery are straight playing risk reversals, selling calls to buy puts. XLE to 70, XOM under 100, DVN into 20's. No clue if they are just hedges or not, but worth paying attention to.

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-Similar Option moves took place 60 days ago as to what you are seeing today.
-When the banks cratered this week, crude Futures went down and was declared as the reason for falling oil price. Banks recovered BUT oil continued down. It's BS. There is manufactured volatility. OPEC+/Saudi released some pretty pointed statements and it has to do with supply. DC should take heed but they are not.
-World demand is growing.
-Saudi been telling us there is no extra production waiting
-Saudi took the U.S. Oil CEO's to dinner last week in NY...public comment was "...there's no extra capacity to produce..".
-Right now, crude builds should be taking place as refineries take down time
-Right now, butane blending is cutting off and gasoline supply drops 2% in the process
-Right now, gasoline tanks are being flushed of winter blend fuel getting ready for summer blend fuel
-Driving season will soon be upon us.
-I can't explain WTI & Brent price action for last 3 months, but when Saudi, Russia, OPEC+ India and China decide they had enough of this U.S. Administration jacking things in the petro market because of some blind agenda to go green energy and climate change - they can cut production or they can embargo the U.S. like in the 70's. (Some will say the embargo means nothing because we produce more oil than in the 70's. Fine. I'll place my bet that we will be in the same shape as in the 70's.) Or, since U.S. is hell bent on Green Energy and Climate Change....why would Saudi/Opec/China/India/Turkey want to trade in the Petro-Dollar? It makes no sense to them. If the Petro-Dollar is abandoned, that's another issue all by itself.
-U.S. Oil CEO's are telling everyone - it (crude) ain't there. This Administration and Media ignore it.
-Second round (February solicitation) of SPR Refill Requests...Administration rejected....none under $70 per barrel.
-I'm holding all my Long energy positions, it's just a matter of weeks until driving season. My constitution is strong should the market want to try and kill fossil fuels in these next weeks. It will roar back. A case of recession without a decline in energy demand.

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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What's your take on the natgas side? I was waiting for it to dip back towards 2 dollars and ride it back to 3-4.

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I don't watch/play/trade NatGas. I'll somewhat which the S&D like a hawk to get an idea as to how I think it will impact XOM's earnings. Trading it or putting money there - I won't touch it. I learned to much about that NatGas market long ago and watched a real good trader go effin' rogue in our company.(****e like that happens when your 2014 residential property tax bill was $39K/yr and you gotta produce just to cover that specific nut) The truth I could post you wouldn't believe and I don't need the ridicule from the masses. And, I d@mn sure don't want to get sued by this mofo because be got quit but they gave him a package to walk and keep his mouth shut. Friends do talk.. It's truly unbelievable. You do what you want, but be real frickin' careful. All I got..

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SF2004 said:

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FJ43 said:

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Just read this.

Hmmmm…….

This will be big .

Much bigger than 2008.

2008 will pale in comparison.

But for now , it’s been postponed.

— TIC TOC TIC (@TicTocTick) March 14, 2023

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There isn't a catalyst left for a crash I don't think. The fed backstopping liquidity problems at banks allows them to ride out the upside down securities.

The fed can print money to pay dept and just like pre Covid as long as it doesn't actually make it into the system and sits on banks balance sheets we good.

The bail out allows the fed to essentially QT and QE at the same time.

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Bonfire1996 said:

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Howdy: Bank decision maker here. Let's keep this lesson here for you, family and friends.

Is your bank at risk in the current bond portfolio mess? Do they have unrealized losses that could cause financial contagion? Good news: the info is public record.

1. Go to the FFIEC website: https://cdr.ffiec.gov/public/ManageFacsimiles.aspx

2. Select Call Report in the drop down menu box

3. Search by institution name to find your bank.

4. Download report and scroll to Schedule "RI-A" which is the breakdown of bank equity/capital. Usually around page 10. Line 10 of the schedule is titled "Other Comprehensive Income" and this is where unrealized losses in the bond portfolios are listed.

Divide the unrealized losses by total capital, and there you see if you have a problem. SVB was approaching 100%

Texas banks are affected. Some much worse than others. Some really big and some really small.

For example and to appropriately scare you:
Frost: $4.75 Billion in total capital, $1.65 Billion in unrealized losses, or 35% of their equity.

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AgShaun00 said:

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I think I know the answer to this, but I bought SBNY puts Friday and it is permanent halt. I am screwed right?

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Bonfire1996 said:

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Important follow ups:

1. How do these unrealized losses disappear? Simple, FED drops rates and the losses disappear into thin air

2. Why is this important when these banks can just hold onto the investments until rates go back down or hold to maturity? This is the most important point: all banks have mechanisms to prevent or hedge risk from bank runs. We can all tap into Federal lending programs like the FHLB (Federal Home Loan Bank) to borrow emergency funds to cover deposits. However, and it's the mother of all howevers, you can't tap into those sources with unrealized losses in your bond portfolios. So you'd have to unwind those positions, take the hit to capital, and then tap into those sources. During that exercise, if unwinding puts your capital underwater, you are screwed and the bank likely fails. That's a tough one.

Find a bank with as close to 0% of their equity at risk as you can. Smart dudes run those banks.

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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AgShaun00 said:

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I think I know the answer to this, but I bought SBNY puts Friday and it is permanent halt. I am screwed right?

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No answer to this? 0 or lambo? Seems if stock is now 0 someone owes you the strike price of your puts?

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cgh1999 said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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Important follow ups:

1. How do these unrealized losses disappear? Simple, FED drops rates and the losses disappear into thin air

2. Why is this important when these banks can just hold onto the investments until rates go back down or hold to maturity? This is the most important point: all banks have mechanisms to prevent or hedge risk from bank runs. We can all tap into Federal lending programs like the FHLB (Federal Home Loan Bank) to borrow emergency funds to cover deposits. However, and it's the mother of all howevers, you can't tap into those sources with unrealized losses in your bond portfolios. So you'd have to unwind those positions, take the hit to capital, and then tap into those sources. During that exercise, if unwinding puts your capital underwater, you are screwed and the bank likely fails. That's a tough one.

Find a bank with as close to 0% of their equity at risk as you can. Smart dudes run those banks.

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If a Bank was close to 0%, I'd assume that they have a high loan to deposit ratio vs a large bond portfolio. Today they may be considered safe, but depending on their credit quality they could be in trouble if the market weakens.

Am I thinking about that correctly?

IMO, 80-85% LTD with no loan concentrations and a diversified bond portfolio would be "fortress balance sheet ".

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0708aggie said:

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So Comerica with 3.5B loss over 4.8B ending capital. Holy F.

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Bonfire1996 said:

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cgh1999 said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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Important follow ups:

1. How do these unrealized losses disappear? Simple, FED drops rates and the losses disappear into thin air

2. Why is this important when these banks can just hold onto the investments until rates go back down or hold to maturity? This is the most important point: all banks have mechanisms to prevent or hedge risk from bank runs. We can all tap into Federal lending programs like the FHLB (Federal Home Loan Bank) to borrow emergency funds to cover deposits. However, and it's the mother of all howevers, you can't tap into those sources with unrealized losses in your bond portfolios. So you'd have to unwind those positions, take the hit to capital, and then tap into those sources. During that exercise, if unwinding puts your capital underwater, you are screwed and the bank likely fails. That's a tough one.

Find a bank with as close to 0% of their equity at risk as you can. Smart dudes run those banks.

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If a Bank was close to 0%, I'd assume that they have a high loan to deposit ratio vs a large bond portfolio. Today they may be considered safe, but depending on their credit quality they could be in trouble if the market weakens.

Am I thinking about that correctly?

IMO, 80-85% LTD with no loan concentrations and a diversified bond portfolio would be "fortress balance sheet ".

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or it means they just didn't want to pull the trigger on low yield, long maturity investments.

We have $0 at risk and for years had a 65-70% loan to deposit ratio.

All that to say, just depends on the banks board preferences

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