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Brewmaster
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 8:57a, 3/15/23
AG
Wow, expert level stuff there Bonfire! thanks for sharing! which bank do you work for or can you give me a hint?

Brenham National Bank:
22.7 million (unrealized losses)
49.8 million (capital)

now I'm looking at USAA, will edit this post with results... wow, not good!
6.2 billion (unrealized losses)
9 billion (capital)
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jpag
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9:01a, 3/15/23
AG
Wow. Look at Industry State Bank. That's Bank of Brenham. I think it's also Bank of College Station.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to jpag • 9:03a, 3/15/23
AG
jpag said:
Wow. Look at Industry State Bank. That's Bank of Brenham. I think it's also Bank of College Station.
holy smokes! underwater beyond 100%
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jpag
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9:06a, 3/15/23
AG
Am I looking at this correctly?!

Industry State Bank
-155.1 million (unrealized losses)
123.5 million (capital)
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gougler08
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9:06a, 3/15/23
AG
What happened to major O&G? Good lord
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DripAG08
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In reply to jpag • 9:08a, 3/15/23
AG
jpag said:
Am I looking at this correctly?!

Industry State Bank
-155.1 million (unrealized losses)
123.5 million (capital)
Jesus…..
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Brewmaster
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9:09a, 3/15/23
AG
winner winner chicken dinner: Prosperity Bank

5,281,000 (unrealized losses)
6,408,843,000 (capital)

It shows location as El Campo, I'd assume that's the same one in B/CS.
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DripAG08
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In reply to gougler08 • 9:09a, 3/15/23
AG
gougler08 said:
What happened to major O&G? Good lord
Buying opportunity here.
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DripAG08
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:10a, 3/15/23
AG
Wait only $5MM in losses???
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Brewmaster
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In reply to DripAG08 • 9:13a, 3/15/23
AG
AustinAg008 said:
Wait only $5MM in losses???
Yes sir! -5,281 is the number listed on the form. (listed in the thousands). A much larger number is under bank equity. 6,408,800 (listed in the thousands)

I didn't like USAA already, this just solidifies it.
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techno-ag
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:19a, 3/15/23
AG
perma Brew doomster said:
winner winner chicken dinner: Prosperity Bank

5,281,000 (unrealized losses)
6,408,843,000 (capital)

It shows location as El Campo, I'd assume that's the same one in B/CS.
Their HQ is in El Campo. BCS sites are branches.
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cgh1999
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9:21a, 3/15/23
AG
Please remember that is ONE metric. If their deposit base is stable, they can hold the bonds to maturity and will be just fine. With the new Fed term facility, they can borrow against the face value of the bonds to support the balance sheet.
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techno-ag
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9:21a, 3/15/23
AG
First Financial out of Abilene and Momentum are another two big banks in BCS. Probably not as big as Frost and Prosperity though.
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fightintxag13
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9:37a, 3/15/23
AG
I just realized that the mortgage company that just bought my new home mortgage is a subsidiary of Western Alliance Bank.

So what does that mean for someone who is borrowing from one of these troubled banks?
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AgShaun00
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 9:37a, 3/15/23
AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:
AgShaun00 said:
I think I know the answer to this, but I bought SBNY puts Friday and it is permanent halt. I am screwed right?

No answer to this? 0 or lambo? Seems if stock is now 0 someone owes you the strike price of your puts?
I asked TD ameritrade. had a 70 put and sold a 55. In theory i should get 1500 bucks. I have to call on expiration date and exercise the put and they will pay it out.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:41a, 3/15/23
AG
What an exciting day today.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to techno-ag • 9:45a, 3/15/23
AG
techno-ag said:
First Financial out of Abilene and Momentum are another two big banks in BCS. Probably not as big as Frost and Prosperity though.
First Financial of Abilene:
631 million (unrealized losses)
vs
1.6 billion (capital)

found American Momentum... VERY good numbers:
18,973,000 (unrealized losses)
421,852,000 (capital)

Sorry all, back to stocks!
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Brewmaster
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In reply to fightintxag13 • 9:48a, 3/15/23
AG
fightintxag13 said:
I just realized that the mortgage company that just bought my new home mortgage is a subsidiary of Western Alliance Bank.

So what does that mean for someone who is borrowing from one of these troubled banks?
I'm not sure you can control who "owns" or holds your mortgage long term. They can sell it to another bank.
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fightintxag13
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:54a, 3/15/23
AG
perma Brew doomster said:
fightintxag13 said:
I just realized that the mortgage company that just bought my new home mortgage is a subsidiary of Western Alliance Bank.

So what does that mean for someone who is borrowing from one of these troubled banks?
I'm not sure you can control who "owns" or holds your mortgage long term. They can sell it to another bank.
This was my thought. However, looking at this from my work perspective...

I work at a cotton gin. We sell planting seed and chemical during the summer to keep us busy. What happens if a bank goes under that one or multiple customers of mine have operating notes with?

Do they just sell the note to another bank as well? Is there a temporary freeze on advances? There is a bank that several of my customers bank with that is showing 35% unrealized losses. It's not a problem so long as there isn't a run on the bank, but IF it were to fail, what happens to those operating notes.
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Bonfire97
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In reply to jpag • 10:00a, 3/15/23
AG
Quote:
Am I looking at this correctly?!

Industry State Bank
-155.1 million (unrealized losses)
123.5 million (capital)
Wow - I would have thought that Industry State Bank would have been in good shape. Just checked some of the other Industry BancShares banks like Bank of Brenham and First National Bank of Bellville. They all are just as bad if this information is correct. I guess it really doesn't matter since the government is going to bail everyone out even if you are over the $250K.
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Bonfire1996
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In reply to Bonfire97 • 10:03a, 3/15/23
AG
Bonfire97 said:
Quote:
Am I looking at this correctly?!

Industry State Bank
-155.1 million (unrealized losses)
123.5 million (capital)
Wow - I would have thought that Industry State Bank would have been in good shape. Just checked some of the other Industry BancShares banks like Bank of Brenham and First National Bank of Bellville. They all are just as bad if this information is correct. I guess it really doesn't matter since the government is going to bail everyone out even if you are over the $250K.
Wrong way to think. FED's current bailout is $25 Billion. Total unrealized losses across all FDIC banks is in excess of $700 Billion.
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HoustonAg2014
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 10:08a, 3/15/23
AG
Am I correct in saying that Bank X buys Bank Y. Bank Y has a 50% rate of unrealized losses. Bank X now takes on those losses?

If so why would you buy Bank Y? Is it because you are much larger and your deposits well cover the unrealized losses? As Bank X has a 5% loss if they buy bank Y maybe their unrealized losses goes up to 15%?

I feel like the state of texas is about to see a lot of consolidation. But could you just expand your bank branch to where the banks are failing or would you actually buy the bad bank?
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Bonfire1996
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10:15a, 3/15/23
AG
Unrealized losses only become realized if the investment is sold prior to maturity, on the open market.. So these investments aren't necessarily bad. Additionally, they can be hedged with swaps and derivatives.

It only becomes a problem when deposits drop unexpectedly and banks have to shore up capital. The bigger the percentage of capital at risk, the harder it is to shore up capital.

As cgh1999 stated, and he knows banking, this is just one metric.

What sank SVB was not only this, it was a myriad of things that began with public perception leading to a run. These unrealized, unhedged losses were what prevented them from being able to right the ship. These losses didn't start the ship sinking, but it weighed it down past the point of no return.
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Buck Compton
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In reply to HoustonAg2014 • 10:18a, 3/15/23
AG
HoustonAg2014 said:
Am I correct in saying that Bank X buys Bank Y. Bank Y has a 50% rate of unrealized losses. Bank X now takes on those losses?

If so why would you buy Bank Y? Is it because you are much larger and your deposits well cover the unrealized losses? As Bank X has a 5% loss if they buy bank Y maybe their unrealized losses goes up to 15%?

I feel like the state of texas is about to see a lot of consolidation. But could you just expand your bank branch to where the banks are failing or would you actually buy the bad bank?
You don't buy a company at book value. You buy it at market value, especially if you're just buying assets. You aren't buying losses. You're buying bonds, etc. at a discount. You don't just assume their balance sheet as is every time.

And to answer your last question, opening up a new branch isn't just an overnight thing. You need facilities, staff, relationships, etc… there will be some buying opportunities for well-run banks, but some other banks will just cease to exist.

And these unrealized losses are unrealized right now because they're not sold yet. If you actually hold them to maturity those losses will never be realized.
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M4 Benelli
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10:27a, 3/15/23
Farmer, are you still holding PXD my brother? These O & G stocks slumping harder than Hilldawg being assisted into a shaggin wagon. My upside canoe port is bleeding like a stuck pig since I did the move to which no Ag needs to spake. Ive been relegated to eating Tyson Chicken oven scrapins (Using some good Kent Rollins recipes to make do), but I fear at this rate I may have to save money by downgrading my poultry intake to 74 cent a pound Chernobyl Farms Breaded. Dont mind the beak.

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reineraggie09
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In reply to Buck Compton • 10:29a, 3/15/23
AG
Buck Compton said:
HoustonAg2014 said:
Am I correct in saying that Bank X buys Bank Y. Bank Y has a 50% rate of unrealized losses. Bank X now takes on those losses?

If so why would you buy Bank Y? Is it because you are much larger and your deposits well cover the unrealized losses? As Bank X has a 5% loss if they buy bank Y maybe their unrealized losses goes up to 15%?

I feel like the state of texas is about to see a lot of consolidation. But could you just expand your bank branch to where the banks are failing or would you actually buy the bad bank?
You don't buy a company at book value. You buy it at market value, especially if you're just buying assets. You aren't buying losses. You're buying bonds, etc. at a discount. You don't just assume their balance sheet as is every time.

And to answer your last question, opening up a new branch isn't just an overnight thing. You need facilities, staff, relationships, etc… there will be some buying opportunities for well-run banks, but some other banks will just cease to exist.

And these unrealized losses are unrealized right now because they're not sold yet. If you actually hold them to maturity those losses will never be realized.


I've had this same thought in my business. So many vets buying out one another, and didn't make a ton of sense. It's much harder, longer process to start new clinics (branches), but the return on capital is so much higher. Why buy something that isn't run well, try to turn it around and save it, to make a profit. Start something across the street and just go straight after the customer. Most customers aren't that loyal anyway.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 11:01a, 3/15/23
AG
Bonfire1996 said:
Bonfire97 said:
Quote:
Am I looking at this correctly?!

Industry State Bank
-155.1 million (unrealized losses)
123.5 million (capital)
Wow - I would have thought that Industry State Bank would have been in good shape. Just checked some of the other Industry BancShares banks like Bank of Brenham and First National Bank of Bellville. They all are just as bad if this information is correct. I guess it really doesn't matter since the government is going to bail everyone out even if you are over the $250K.
Wrong way to think. FED's current bailout is $25 Billion. Total unrealized losses across all FDIC banks is in excess of $700 Billion.
not to sound too negative, but this sounds like the perfect storm to bring in the digital dollar and blame it all on U.S. banking.
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Bonfire1996
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In reply to Brewmaster • 11:10a, 3/15/23
AG
perma Brew doomster said:
Bonfire1996 said:
Bonfire97 said:
Quote:
Am I looking at this correctly?!

Industry State Bank
-155.1 million (unrealized losses)
123.5 million (capital)
Wow - I would have thought that Industry State Bank would have been in good shape. Just checked some of the other Industry BancShares banks like Bank of Brenham and First National Bank of Bellville. They all are just as bad if this information is correct. I guess it really doesn't matter since the government is going to bail everyone out even if you are over the $250K.
Wrong way to think. FED's current bailout is $25 Billion. Total unrealized losses across all FDIC banks is in excess of $700 Billion.
not to sound too negative, but this sounds like the perfect storm to bring in the digital dollar and blame it all on U.S. banking.
The thought absolutely crossed my mind.
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cgh1999
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 11:19a, 3/15/23
AG
Bonfire1996 said:
perma Brew doomster said:
Bonfire1996 said:
Bonfire97 said:
Quote:
Am I looking at this correctly?!

Industry State Bank
-155.1 million (unrealized losses)
123.5 million (capital)
Wow - I would have thought that Industry State Bank would have been in good shape. Just checked some of the other Industry BancShares banks like Bank of Brenham and First National Bank of Bellville. They all are just as bad if this information is correct. I guess it really doesn't matter since the government is going to bail everyone out even if you are over the $250K.
Wrong way to think. FED's current bailout is $25 Billion. Total unrealized losses across all FDIC banks is in excess of $700 Billion.
not to sound too negative, but this sounds like the perfect storm to bring in the digital dollar and blame it all on U.S. banking.
The thought absolutely crossed my mind.

Signature bank and Silvergate both had significant crypto exposure. Those banks being out of the way definitely helps clear the path.
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reineraggie09
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11:34a, 3/15/23
AG
Anyone looking at KRE, the regional bank ETF? Maybe a little oversold at this point
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gougler08
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12:12p, 3/15/23
AG
DNN leaking out the bottom of the box, hopefully a quick leg back up or that could fail
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to M4 Benelli • 12:16p, 3/15/23
M4 Benelli said:
Farmer, are you still holding PXD my brother? These O & G stocks slumping harder than Hilldawg being assisted into a shaggin wagon. My upside canoe port is bleeding like a stuck pig since I did the move to which no Ag needs to spake. Ive been relegated to eating Tyson Chicken oven scrapins (Using some good Kent Rollins recipes to make do), but I fear at this rate I may have to save money by downgrading my poultry intake to 74 cent a pound Chernobyl Farms Breaded. Dont mind the beak.

Dadgum... Stayed up way to late last night (this morning). Got up an hour ago to this red stuff.

I still hold PXD, XOM and CVX and everything else that is red. I don't have anything much different to add then what I wrote last night. To take XOM down 5% yesterday and 6% today is mammoth. Energy is a target. Driving season is coming, unless the Fed and this Administration plan to blow everything up. Oil is down more than the banks. What games are being played and coupling in US bank failures have little to do with oil demand on a global basis. If they are planning on a recession to cut energy demand, so be it, but I dont see it. XOM has the cash to be debt free and this Administration will try hard to punish them. The share buyback program was timed perfectly. If those shares were in the market today, XOM shares would be weaponized against them. PXD will be fine and their CEO Sheffield knows the oil business well. He is the chief speaker to the press/media in the industry about crude being short and I don't think he'd say it if he didn't mean it.

CVX, on the other hand, I think they are sellouts or they have been compromised to lap dance for this Administration.

Looks like bonfire1996 has given me some homework.

ETA: Economic data coming out I interpret as deflationary. If wrong, someone correct me.
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Miguel
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 12:32p, 3/15/23
AG
Thanks for posting this info bonfire!
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Brewmaster
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In reply to M4 Benelli • 12:32p, 3/15/23
AG
M4 Benelli said:
Farmer, are you still holding PXD my brother? These O & G stocks slumping harder than Hilldawg being assisted into a shaggin wagon. My upside canoe port is bleeding like a stuck pig since I did the move to which no Ag needs to spake. Ive been relegated to eating Tyson Chicken oven scrapins (Using some good Kent Rollins recipes to make do), but I fear at this rate I may have to save money by downgrading my poultry intake to 74 cent a pound Chernobyl Farms Breaded. Dont mind the beak.

LMAO, right there with you buddy!
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Ag CPA
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12:33p, 3/15/23
AG
Even Tom Lee is finally giving up the ghost.

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