Aggietaco said:

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gougler08 said:

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TChaney said:

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GNPX

CLSK

Are either of these those goal posts?

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CLSK is certainly interesting...good find

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Only if you recognized it at 5 minutes after open this morning.

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Not necessarily...the goal post is supposed to signify further increases coming even after today's big jump (see MVIS today)

Fedup said:

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AGSmith said:

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PTON is up about 6% today (to just shy of $36) ahead of its earnings announcement tomorrow after the close. Does anyone have any input on how to play it between now and the announcement?

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Pton is a crock longer term. Once people figure out their $8-9000 in 10 years could've been spent on something That doesn't Depreciate, no one will buy one.

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Yeah as a cyclist and a Zwift user I'm not a fan either (of an overpriced stand alone unit with an ipad glued to it).

Look up the implied volatility on it, currently mid 90's (that's high). This means there's a good chance MM's drop it downward and hold it there through Friday (options expire).

Sell all and buy the dip after earnings if you want to play it again. You might get lucky and get an initial rip upward right at the start of the earnings call (to sell into). It will probably be very short lived though.

BREwmaster said:

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Fedup said:

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AGSmith said:

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PTON is up about 6% today (to just shy of $36) ahead of its earnings announcement tomorrow after the close. Does anyone have any input on how to play it between now and the announcement?

---

Pton is a crock longer term. Once people figure out their $8-9000 in 10 years could've been spent on something That doesn't Depreciate, no one will buy one.

---

Yeah as a cyclist and a Zwift user I'm not a fan either (of an overpriced stand alone unit with an ipad glued to it).

Look up the implied volatility on it, currently mid 90's (that's high). This means there's a good chance MM's drop it downward and hold it there through Friday (options expire).

Sell all and buy the dip after earnings if you want to play it again. You might get lucky and get an initial rip upward right at the start of the earnings call (to sell into). It will probably be very short lived though.

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i now have both. Zwift for me, PTON for my wife.

Careful with the iPad comment. Idk what you are running Zwift on but if it is an iPad you are no "better" off than the pton bike. People like simplicity and pton is a one stop shop connect to WiFi and go application. The interaction and classes add to the appeal.

Spy H&S on the Minute chart? Shoulders at 288.85 and head at 289.24?

I think that's the point being made though. Ipads aren't hard to use, and you still get the ipad.

Tons of people already have a bike and ipad that can do something similar. Hard to see thousands of dollars of value in the difference.

McInnis 03 said:

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Spy H&S on the Minute chart? Shoulders at 288.85 and head at 289.24?

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I would suggest not following the minute chart. It will just give you headaches

khaos288 said:

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No way...

Ragoo said:

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BREwmaster said:

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Fedup said:

---

AGSmith said:

---

PTON is up about 6% today (to just shy of $36) ahead of its earnings announcement tomorrow after the close. Does anyone have any input on how to play it between now and the announcement?

---

Pton is a crock longer term. Once people figure out their $8-9000 in 10 years could've been spent on something That doesn't Depreciate, no one will buy one.

---

Yeah as a cyclist and a Zwift user I'm not a fan either (of an overpriced stand alone unit with an ipad glued to it).

Look up the implied volatility on it, currently mid 90's (that's high). This means there's a good chance MM's drop it downward and hold it there through Friday (options expire).

Sell all and buy the dip after earnings if you want to play it again. You might get lucky and get an initial rip upward right at the start of the earnings call (to sell into). It will probably be very short lived though.

---

i now have both. Zwift for me, PTON for my wife.

Careful with the iPad comment. Idk what you are running Zwift on but if it is an iPad you are no "better" off than the pton bike. People like simplicity and pton is a one stop shop connect to WiFi and go application. The interaction and classes add to the appeal.

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My wife rides daily. Me, 3-4 x per month on off days from lifting. The crowd who buys and subscribes doesn't worry about the cost. It's kind of like Starbucks. You have ppl that want it and will pay for it, while other will brew Folgers at home so they're not paying $5+ per coffee.

It was just an analysis.

Ragoo said:

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BREwmaster said:

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Fedup said:

---

AGSmith said:

---

PTON is up about 6% today (to just shy of $36) ahead of its earnings announcement tomorrow after the close. Does anyone have any input on how to play it between now and the announcement?

---

Pton is a crock longer term. Once people figure out their $8-9000 in 10 years could've been spent on something That doesn't Depreciate, no one will buy one.

---

Yeah as a cyclist and a Zwift user I'm not a fan either (of an overpriced stand alone unit with an ipad glued to it).

Look up the implied volatility on it, currently mid 90's (that's high). This means there's a good chance MM's drop it downward and hold it there through Friday (options expire).

Sell all and buy the dip after earnings if you want to play it again. You might get lucky and get an initial rip upward right at the start of the earnings call (to sell into). It will probably be very short lived though.

---

i now have both. Zwift for me, PTON for my wife.

Careful with the iPad comment. Idk what you are running Zwift on but if it is an iPad you are no "better" off than the pton bike. People like simplicity and pton is a one stop shop connect to WiFi and go application. The interaction and classes add to the appeal.

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The biggest negative to the PTON is that it is essentially useless without the subscription. You have access to a free ride with no saved metrics and that's it. Unlike other bikes with a Zwift account (or one of the many others), you don't have much of a base product left without the monthly sub. I think their stock will continue to climb with the huge increase in users from the WFH folks, but I'm not sure long term.

khaos288 said:

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I think that's the point being made though. Ipads aren't hard to use, and you still get the ipad.

Tons of people already have a bike and ipad that can do something similar. Hard to see thousands of dollars of value in the difference.

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I agree with you, but when it comes to exercise there's also something to be said for making things seamless and easy.

I've lost countless rides due to having to tinker with my KICKR/Zwift setup.

IrishTxAggie said:

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It was just an analysis.

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Correct. A little fear mongering scares the market though.

RGRAg1/75 said:

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Ragoo said:

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BREwmaster said:

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Fedup said:

---

AGSmith said:

---

PTON is up about 6% today (to just shy of $36) ahead of its earnings announcement tomorrow after the close. Does anyone have any input on how to play it between now and the announcement?

---

Pton is a crock longer term. Once people figure out their $8-9000 in 10 years could've been spent on something That doesn't Depreciate, no one will buy one.

---

Yeah as a cyclist and a Zwift user I'm not a fan either (of an overpriced stand alone unit with an ipad glued to it).

Look up the implied volatility on it, currently mid 90's (that's high). This means there's a good chance MM's drop it downward and hold it there through Friday (options expire).

Sell all and buy the dip after earnings if you want to play it again. You might get lucky and get an initial rip upward right at the start of the earnings call (to sell into). It will probably be very short lived though.

---

i now have both. Zwift for me, PTON for my wife.

Careful with the iPad comment. Idk what you are running Zwift on but if it is an iPad you are no "better" off than the pton bike. People like simplicity and pton is a one stop shop connect to WiFi and go application. The interaction and classes add to the appeal.

---

My wife rides daily. Me, 3-4 x per month on off days from lifting. The crowd who buys and subscribes doesn't worry about the cost. It's kind of like Starbucks. You have ppl that want it and will pay for it, while other will brew Folgers at home so they're not paying $5+ per coffee.

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Yeah but if Starbucks stops brewing or is no longer en vogue then the consumer can just turn elsewhere.

Would you spend $2000 just for the right to buy coffee from Starbucks?

That being said, since PTON does seem to be double-dipping with hardware+subs, they likely have a lot of room to discount hardware price if sales start slipping. Not sure what that bike costs to manufacture, but if you can charge $39/month on a 1yr commitment then you can probably give the bike away for free if need-be.

Proposition Joe said:

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Two things with PTON that someone much more informed can tell me:

1) Do they have to pay royalties/licensing for the music they use during their training?

2) Aside from being the trendy pick, is there anything they do that another bike+platform couldn't just as easily copy and decimate their market share with a much lower subscription price? At $39/month for distribution to thousands it seems like there is a ton of room for a bargain provider to surface.


A subscription service on a $2000+ bike would certainly scare me long-term. When the content dips or disappears, that's an expensive exercise bike.

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1) They do have to pay royalties for the music content, and its paid on different levels based on whether the class is accessed live or on-demand.

2) They currently offer a $12.99/month app (which was dropped from $19/month in December 2019) subscription for individuals that have their own equipment, which offers the same content access as the $39/month level that is required for use with the Peloton equipment. The $12.99 option is "per user", whereas the $39 is multi-user. They have also expanded their content offerings to include on-demand and live fitness and health classes including yoga, strength, outdoor running, meditation and bootcamp.

khaos288 said:

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I think that's the point being made though. Ipads aren't hard to use, and you still get the ipad.

Tons of people already have a bike and ipad that can do something similar. Hard to see thousands of dollars of value in the difference.

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tons of people don't have those things at all or PTON wouldnt sell a single bike.

I have a road bike, a smart trainer, a laptop running Zwift and combined costs as much as a PTON bike and I pay a sub for Zwift.

I have this set up because I take my bike off the trainer for races.

Most people getting a PTON aren't racing they are using it for the interactive at home spin workout.

It serves its purpose and don't think it will be a fad.

Proposition Joe said:

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RGRAg1/75 said:

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Ragoo said:

---

BREwmaster said:

---

Fedup said:

---

AGSmith said:

---

PTON is up about 6% today (to just shy of $36) ahead of its earnings announcement tomorrow after the close. Does anyone have any input on how to play it between now and the announcement?

---

Pton is a crock longer term. Once people figure out their $8-9000 in 10 years could've been spent on something That doesn't Depreciate, no one will buy one.

---

Yeah as a cyclist and a Zwift user I'm not a fan either (of an overpriced stand alone unit with an ipad glued to it).

Look up the implied volatility on it, currently mid 90's (that's high). This means there's a good chance MM's drop it downward and hold it there through Friday (options expire).

Sell all and buy the dip after earnings if you want to play it again. You might get lucky and get an initial rip upward right at the start of the earnings call (to sell into). It will probably be very short lived though.

---

i now have both. Zwift for me, PTON for my wife.

Careful with the iPad comment. Idk what you are running Zwift on but if it is an iPad you are no "better" off than the pton bike. People like simplicity and pton is a one stop shop connect to WiFi and go application. The interaction and classes add to the appeal.

---

My wife rides daily. Me, 3-4 x per month on off days from lifting. The crowd who buys and subscribes doesn't worry about the cost. It's kind of like Starbucks. You have ppl that want it and will pay for it, while other will brew Folgers at home so they're not paying $5+ per coffee.

---

Yeah but if Starbucks stops brewing or is no longer en vogue then the consumer can just turn elsewhere.

Would you spend $2000 just for the right to buy coffee from Starbucks?

That being said, since PTON does seem to be double-dipping with hardware+subs, they likely have a lot of room to discount hardware price if sales start slipping. Not sure what that bike costs to manufacture, but if you can charge $39/month on a 1yr commitment then you can probably give the bike away for free if need-be.

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you can use and benefit from the PTOn sub without owning a pton bike, or even any bike at all.

Not seeing much value today. Made one trade at 9:40ish on selling MSFT weeklies. Waiting for a ROKU entry for earnings that I like. Anyone else joining me on roku?

TChaney said:

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GNPX

CLSK

Are either of these those goal posts?

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Got in CLSK at 2.72...now 3.50! Great find here! I'm mad that I didn't buy more...

fightintxag13 said:

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TChaney said:

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GNPX

CLSK

Are either of these those goal posts?

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Got in CLSK at 2.72...now 3.50! Great find here! I'm mad that I didn't buy more...

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Nice, I didn't have the stones to buy in

Ragoo said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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RGRAg1/75 said:

---

Ragoo said:

---

BREwmaster said:

---

Fedup said:

---

AGSmith said:

---

PTON is up about 6% today (to just shy of $36) ahead of its earnings announcement tomorrow after the close. Does anyone have any input on how to play it between now and the announcement?

---

Pton is a crock longer term. Once people figure out their $8-9000 in 10 years could've been spent on something That doesn't Depreciate, no one will buy one.

---

Yeah as a cyclist and a Zwift user I'm not a fan either (of an overpriced stand alone unit with an ipad glued to it).

Look up the implied volatility on it, currently mid 90's (that's high). This means there's a good chance MM's drop it downward and hold it there through Friday (options expire).

Sell all and buy the dip after earnings if you want to play it again. You might get lucky and get an initial rip upward right at the start of the earnings call (to sell into). It will probably be very short lived though.

---

i now have both. Zwift for me, PTON for my wife.

Careful with the iPad comment. Idk what you are running Zwift on but if it is an iPad you are no "better" off than the pton bike. People like simplicity and pton is a one stop shop connect to WiFi and go application. The interaction and classes add to the appeal.

---

My wife rides daily. Me, 3-4 x per month on off days from lifting. The crowd who buys and subscribes doesn't worry about the cost. It's kind of like Starbucks. You have ppl that want it and will pay for it, while other will brew Folgers at home so they're not paying $5+ per coffee.

---

Yeah but if Starbucks stops brewing or is no longer en vogue then the consumer can just turn elsewhere.

Would you spend $2000 just for the right to buy coffee from Starbucks?

That being said, since PTON does seem to be double-dipping with hardware+subs, they likely have a lot of room to discount hardware price if sales start slipping. Not sure what that bike costs to manufacture, but if you can charge $39/month on a 1yr commitment then you can probably give the bike away for free if need-be.

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you can use and benefit from the PTOn sub without owning a pton bike, or even any bike at all.

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Yea my wife has been doing their workouts and meditation crap for a few weeks now. Just as many workouts from her phone/iPad as on the bike. They're doing a good job with diversification thus far.

I went pretty small since I wasn't sure. Only bought 500 shares, but it could be much worse!

Mouse is falling now..

[Whale gif]

Oh yeah, I agree. There's a market, but it just doesn't seem like it will be a huge growth area. They'll saturate quick, and have problems attracting new customers. IMO.

I'm not a indoor cycling fan, but my wife got us a Peloton after we stopped working out after baby #2.

I'm trying to figure out if they're a company or a product (or products), but they are definitely different than a typical workout bike. For one, I think it's safe to say they have the best/most famous instructors. Second, they have quite a community - I don't know if it's too early to tell if it's like GoPro (something I would short) or Starbucks. They have a new treadmill, yoga/cardio workouts, and supposedly are coming out with a row machine.

I think it's safe to say their $$$ are going to come from the subscription service, not the hardware. And I don't think they're competing with other workout bikes - I think they're getting people who don't have the flexibility to do camp gladiator or orange theory. Now they're the hot name - Lebron, Curry, Rory McElroy all post about their Peloton workouts. Tons of older former athletes post about them, too.

On my wife's team of 4 other people, 2 of them purchased a bike in April. When someone uses your referral code you get $100 to spend on merchandise and the overpriced store has been consistently sold out. I think they're killing it short term, but I don't know if that's already factored in.

IrishTxAggie said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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Spy H&S on the Minute chart? Shoulders at 288.85 and head at 289.24?

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I would suggest not following the minute chart. It will just give you headaches

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He may have had a point here though. Not sure where the floor is today.

gougler08 said:

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fightintxag13 said:

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TChaney said:

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GNPX

CLSK

Are either of these those goal posts?

---

Got in CLSK at 2.72...now 3.50! Great find here! I'm mad that I didn't buy more...

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Nice, I didn't have the stones to buy in

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Yes, my comment aged poorly.

I would really like the pton threadmill

From the delivery staff, apparently sales are up 300% from normal since the lockdown... I have no other way to substantiate that, but take it for what it's worth.