SoupNazi2001 said:

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I will say this, I have traded since 1998. This is nothing like 00-02 or 07-09. Those bear markets had brutal snap back rallies of 20% that last 4-6 weeks. The last 2 weeks are like anything I have ever seen. Every night the futures crash, heck we are already down 3% from the close and we were off 9.5% today. Just straight down with no rallies. 1987 isn't even comparable anymore.

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Watch for a H&S trade. Those are some big and nasty looking candles. It's going to bounce first.

thirdcoast said:

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FriscoKid said:

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Boat Shoes said:

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I figured it was someone like that when he did it. Not a good sign.

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I was watching live this morning. Cramer was doom and gloom at open basically saying the Trump admin knew less than he did about the virus. Then Cramer got an emergency call seconds later, he came back on camera, and did a 180.

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Saw that too. Said the government has this. Obviously he was talking to the government.

the last of the bohemians said:

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Perfect storm for online gaming- biggest demographic - college kids- have more time now, high schools are closed for a few weeks, no sports on TV , and of course bored adults.

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Someone watched CNBC today.....

riley290 said:

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the amount of halts we've seen on futures and circuit breakers during open hours is insane. I have not been in the game very long but the volatility right now is out of control. Until the virus calms down and the extent of the affect is known I think the rollercoaster continues.

I'm the inpatient medical director of a hospital in a southeastern city, I'll let everyone know when I think we're nearing the end of the uncertainty cause I feel like the market will snap back once that is known. The fed here and around the world as well as the executive and legislative departments around the world are preparing unseen relief and stimulus packages which will have a long term affects to the world economy over a discreet and finite event. The virus will likely be old news by 2022 but the policies being put in place won't be so I suspect there will be a rocket ship to ride once the uncertainty calms down. If the oil market uncertainty calms at a similar time frame hopefully people can get back to work and make this thing take off quickly.

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There's a point here that I would like to highlight because it's been on my mind the last day or two. The new news for Houstonians (where I live) has been school districts shuttering for 1-2 weeks, which has created an impression this is a weeks-long ordeal, or maybe 30-60 days.

But this hasn't been a "few weeks" thing for China. It's been happening since December, and a vaccine is probably 12 months out. As I understand it, these social distancing policies are meant to limit the overall number of people who are sick at one time so as to keep the hospital system from becoming overwhelmed by a short term spike that it can't cope with. But the trade off is an increase in the overall duration of the disease's progression through a population (a "slow burn" versus "flash fire"), and the policies only work if they're continuous until there's a vaccine for the most susceptible population to no longer be at great risk (or we develop enough of a herd immunity assuming that's possible with a new virus). Otherwise if/when things go back to normal the threat of a spike in incidents is still there.

I guess I'm just starting to question if this may be a year-long situation and what types of macroeconomic impacts there could be here locally (I'm in CRE development so oil is a major blow) and in the financial markets.

Would be glad to be mistaken on any of the above.

You are definitely right. The goal at this point really is to turn it in to a slow burn. I'm not going to go into politics at all but in my city at least the chance to contain it was missed weeks ago when we were requesting testing and isolation for unexplained respiratory illnesses and we missed the window to isolate and stem the initial spread due to public health officials.

St. Louis vs Philly with the 1918 flu, early social distancing flattens the curve


For COVID19, countries that were devastated by SARS and H1N1 enacted swift social restrictions and travel limits and flattened the curve


In 1918 Denver had initial measures and relaxed them due to success and had to reinstitute them when cases rose again


I believe due to transmissibility these will spread similarly, we will save many more ill patients than was possible in 1918 and most will not be terribly ill anyway so the death rate hopefully won't be near the same. I believe we hurt for a few weeks and then slowly get back to it, fingers crossed

China is already reporting single digit new cases daily. Wouldn't that indicate it's not as bad as thought OR what I'm potentially thinking is their extreme measures slowed it but now that they are loosening up, they'll see an increase in new cases.

Think or swim says VIX isn't tradable, what ticker do you use? You just listed two that you said you do not trade...?

This is probably the most likely answer that I failed to mention. Seems they've been more transparent this time around. Also, corporations are starting to resume business activity there. Starbucks, apple, etc.

The expectation I've heard of is that new cases will rebound if the social policies are relaxed, but that will probably be a great indicator about what to expect here and elsewhere until there's a vaccine.

Bear in mind too, they were able to achieve those reductions (on the almost preposterously big, big, if they're not lying for propaganda) by locking down 800 million people, assigning percentage probability of infection and tracking their population to the individual with their "social score" system. A Beijing correspondent on NPR on Wednesday said they've had to scan their social ID number or present it to a door guard before being granted access to all retail stores or gathering places, and if the percentage is too high they're not allowed in and quarantined.

Asian plunge protection team to the rescue?

I trade VIX options on ToS

I see now, TOS gave me a denial message when I entered VIX in quick trade, but I see the options contracts now. Thanks.

What's your specialty?

It's like the experts here know a thing or two

Futures up 3-4% so far. Apple from $250 to $237 to $260 as I type this pre market.

Tremendous buying pressure below $259. Keep tabs on that for pivots off any early profit taking.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Did they have to cover existing shorts when this happens ?

I'm not sure how it works.

I personally wouldn't try any earnings plays in this environment but DOCU reports earnings today. I know some of you are more familiar with this company than I am and I'm just letting the board know.

Already repotted

Thanks, like I said, I don't trade it so wasn't paying that much attention to it.

Limit locked up now. Bear markets wild swings.

DIS and ROKU answering the questions on why so high on these two?

Because they have billions making them stable to deal with sell offs and they have offers no one else has...I can't believe I was able to add to sub $80 ROKU buys at $72.30 after hours. Gifts like that don't come along often.

Any retest On macro markets I doubt you see ROKU retest that low.

Prognightmare said:

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I bought DIS, ROKU, SPCE & FSLY yesterday morning so I like your post very much.

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I'm on the same boat. Let's go!