One more for today.
NVDA - this is a common structure. The zones for bullish and bearish are clear based on current structure. What I'm tracking below is a similar structure to what we saw at the end of May but on a larger scale based on the initial decline off the high. Please understand what this chart is showing before the memes of a million scribbly lines show up (always funny IMO and often accurate).
Instruments rarely fall from a high in a single move. Corrections are hard to quanitfy and even harder to time. The saying "like throwing jello for distance" is my favorite. But once you have the initial move off a high, you can measure out the most standard path and adjust as you go. That path is of a typical "zigzag" correction.
While this doesn't seem to perfectly match that, it is still on the table as long as price doesn't break above $135. If NVDA goes higher than that, then the highest probability is some type of "flat".
But again, corrections are a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment, neither taking hold until the other is exhausted. Which is why they tend to be messy, overalpping, and unpredictable. While there ideal paths you look for similar to the above, there is literally no set rule or guideline. Truly anything can happen. So based on what I'm seeing, the most ideal path for NVDA is as follows.
If you are bullish, you need to see $130 taken out and then you absolutely can't see any breaks back below it. You can use $130 as your new stop level and feel very safe. If you are bearish, your runway to be so is as long as under ATH, and even a little higher in the case of an expanding flat where the "b" wave can go higher than the "a". But in that case, maintaining bearishness at new highs is not wise, as even if a renewed selloff commences, you would need back under $134 with no confirmation of being correct until below $130, at which point the majority of the move back down has already happened. Therefore, if you are bearish and we are above the previous high, your best bet is a lucky guess. If you see NVDA play out cose to what I have charted here, with $135 acting as resistance, please respect that strong probability of another significant move down. It doesn't mean it has to happeb. But the move will be set up perfectly and should be respected until broken. If another selloff does happen, $106 is the current expectation for the next bottom. But a lot to play out before we hone in on lower targets. Next week will be extremely telling. And the worse case scenario is extended sideways action, as all high probability counts get thrown out and whipsaw becomes the expectation.
Lastly, the blue vertical lines on the chart are fib timing. You can see the blue fib numbers in the middle. Not perfect. But I love having them on the chart as timing points to watch for significant action.
Edit to add: I have no position. I bought puts near the recent high and sol them all when it fell under $120. If it plays along with my count, I will look for first move down and reaction off of it to buy puts 1-2 months out. And I will switch to calls very quickly if supports hold and structure seems to want higher. But for now, no position.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)