One more for today.

NVDA - this is a common structure. The zones for bullish and bearish are clear based on current structure. What I'm tracking below is a similar structure to what we saw at the end of May but on a larger scale based on the initial decline off the high. Please understand what this chart is showing before the memes of a million scribbly lines show up (always funny IMO and often accurate).

Instruments rarely fall from a high in a single move. Corrections are hard to quanitfy and even harder to time. The saying "like throwing jello for distance" is my favorite. But once you have the initial move off a high, you can measure out the most standard path and adjust as you go. That path is of a typical "zigzag" correction.



While this doesn't seem to perfectly match that, it is still on the table as long as price doesn't break above $135. If NVDA goes higher than that, then the highest probability is some type of "flat".



But again, corrections are a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment, neither taking hold until the other is exhausted. Which is why they tend to be messy, overalpping, and unpredictable. While there ideal paths you look for similar to the above, there is literally no set rule or guideline. Truly anything can happen. So based on what I'm seeing, the most ideal path for NVDA is as follows.

If you are bullish, you need to see $130 taken out and then you absolutely can't see any breaks back below it. You can use $130 as your new stop level and feel very safe. If you are bearish, your runway to be so is as long as under ATH, and even a little higher in the case of an expanding flat where the "b" wave can go higher than the "a". But in that case, maintaining bearishness at new highs is not wise, as even if a renewed selloff commences, you would need back under $134 with no confirmation of being correct until below $130, at which point the majority of the move back down has already happened. Therefore, if you are bearish and we are above the previous high, your best bet is a lucky guess. If you see NVDA play out cose to what I have charted here, with $135 acting as resistance, please respect that strong probability of another significant move down. It doesn't mean it has to happeb. But the move will be set up perfectly and should be respected until broken. If another selloff does happen, $106 is the current expectation for the next bottom. But a lot to play out before we hone in on lower targets. Next week will be extremely telling. And the worse case scenario is extended sideways action, as all high probability counts get thrown out and whipsaw becomes the expectation.

Lastly, the blue vertical lines on the chart are fib timing. You can see the blue fib numbers in the middle. Not perfect. But I love having them on the chart as timing points to watch for significant action.



Edit to add: I have no position. I bought puts near the recent high and sol them all when it fell under $120. If it plays along with my count, I will look for first move down and reaction off of it to buy puts 1-2 months out. And I will switch to calls very quickly if supports hold and structure seems to want higher. But for now, no position.

Moves made today and some other general thoughts.

• Sold 50% of July SLV $27 calls to go net free. Rest are ride or die.
• Sold 50% of September $28 SLV calls. Was already net free and had added back. Firmly in the green now and I treat the profit as helping the Sep $30's and Nov $30's toward net free,
• Wednesday I had bought SPY $540 puts for July for $1.05 each. Added today in multiple tranches and 4x'ed the position for avg contract price of $0.80. Will sell half if they 2x in value and ride the rest hoping for $530 range and $10 contract value. Timing might be too tight, but this were purely a hedge against the typical post-July 4th expected bullishness. Historically, market is weak in June and rallies in July. So this is just hoping for opposite day.
• Bought PLTR October $23 puts for just over $1.00 each. Already had August $20 puts and wanted to give more time in case it does make one more push up. Always like to buy puts on low volatility "up" days.
• MARA and CLSK are still wait and sees. Plenty of time to go long. Made a ton of money on miners earlier this year. No hurry to jump in as BTC still can lower.
• Very close to buying XOM. Want to make sure it holds $105 range over next 1-2 weeks. Potential for one more low in an expanding triangle pattern off the Feb 2023 high. So need that to invalidate before I'm 100% comfortable. I have enough energy positions that I don't care if I miss out on a handful I'm watching.
• 2-year yield has already made a new low. Waiting on 10-year to follow. If it does, oh boy..

Next week is going to very telling for a lot of stocks and broader markets.

pretty much committed to going down with this ship

tlh3842 said:

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I have the September but didn't know about the November SLV calls. Think we get much pull back to get into November calls (as in hop on now for the ride) or worth waiting for pullback just in case to avoid risk?

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The goal is $40 by September. November was purely a tag along play that would benefit equally or more if we get $40 by September, but has the added benefit of extending the timeline if it does indeed take longer.

Right now the expectation is still $40 by September expiration. Long term, I still think $60 is the target, but that could be 2025-2026. Could it be $60 by election? Sure. I don't time travel. Could it still be $30? Sure.

But we are still tracking nicely with the typical August election year spike.

Howdy family, I hope everyone had a wonderful and safe holiday weekend. Mine was doing well until the A-coil on my inside unit had a catastrophic leak on a capillary tube. My father had an A/C company for almost 40 years so luckily I found a replacement coil in the old warehouse. It's been many years since I've replaced an evaporator coil, but the old dog did it today and my A/C is functioning perfectly.

Stock related, I'm still 95% in cash and sitting idle.

Just had a power surge in NW Houston. Don't expect to have power much longer. Good luck to all of you in the path of the storm. Hopefully it passes through with minimal damage and power outages.

Straight up for eternity? Everyone is going to retire at 32 years old? Can we at least get a small 5% or so pull back?

No, price targets are like reading a longwinded Ketch soliloquy, that's a never ending run-on sentence, about sip recruiting on the tears thread. Firms adding to their position in SMCI is what you should focus on. The insider sells were only around 500 shrs and still hold thousands of shares so they're not selling either. You have insiders holding and firms adding to their positions. What does that tell you?