For those of us doing a day play today, don't forget the market closes at 12 CST.

Market opens Friday, right?

Yes market is open for business Friday for a post holiday hangover.

agdaddy04 said:

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PROG, further thought on KSS and if the recent move down would be a good time to add a position? Doesn't look like they cut the dividend, right?

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Yes, their dividend appears safe and current price and yield is a good entry point. Put it in a DRIP to reinvest the dividends and you'll have a good ROI. It'll be more boring than watching paint dry, but it offers great return with minimal risks imo.

Now we just need Nancy to go balls deep in POWL and SMCI and we are all set.

flashplayer said:

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Now we just need Nancy to go balls deep in POWL and SMCI and we are all set.

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Cough…cough…$WWR….

Not related to those two, but I had no idea there's an actual ETF NANC that tracks her moves. It's up 20% year to date and 44% from the October low last year

El_duderino said:

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Not related to those two, but I had no idea there's an actual ETF NANC that tracks her moves. It's up 20% year to date and 44% from the October low last year

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$NANC tracks all the Dems investments. $KRUZ is the Republican ETF.

Alright Heineken, you can come back now.

Time to play the Bitcoin dip or is there still room below?

Ok. Quick rundown of some things I'm watching.

MARA - stripping out the EW count and purely looking at supply and demand zones. They obviously aren't static, but general ranges for when buyers and sellers will step in with force. Break this wedge to the downside and you can see what the next stops are. Break it to the upside and know your resistance levels.



BTC - Playing out like expected with pressure pushing down into the low $50k's. MACD is still on a full sell for daily, though RSI is approaching oversold levels. Hourly needs a reset, so I think we're taking a breath here. But I do expect lower. Daily RSI might want 25 before turning up. That's where it got in September before it bottomed and reversed back up. Buyers will start to step up in force around $53k but might not be able to take hold until $49k which is a very significant retracement level as well as a big demand zone.

SMCI - Another break below $750 probably spells short term doom with lower targets anywhere from $375 to $600. But ProgN is right that there is still a chance it can explode higher with $1,500+ absolutely possible. I'm personally not willing to bet on it, as the chart is currently weak. And even if it does happen, the fall from there would likely be harder with the same lower targets.

ARM - What was a promising downside setup has invalidated. But my view is that this is the last hoorah with $200 possible. I can't imagine much less than $150 on a selloff, but it's not a very straight forward chart with any high probability paths that I can spot. If you are in, I'd recommend staying in. $300 is the ultimate target and it would have to break $85 for that to change.

PLTR - Still operating under the top is in. Resistance is this $27 range, and as long as below $27.50, I still favor a significant drop upcoming. Should it make a new high, it will merely be an extension of the bullsh count I am currently viewing as completed with $29 being massive resistance. I still have puts for August, and if the top is respected, I might grab some more for October or november which is shaping up to be an extremely volatile period.

In fact, dating back to 2022 I was warning people (not on here as I wasn't active on texags at that time) that election 2024 could be a significant drawdown event in the broader markets. I haven't seen anything to change that. In fact, I'm seeing a lot of very significant divergences forming on most major instruments. The parallels of the technical structure of this current market to early 2020 are uncanny. That doesn't mean I'm expecting a COVID like global pandemic. It means that broader markets are acting the same way they did before the last major drop. But history doesn't repeat, it merely tends to rhyme sometimes. And not only to we have the parallels to 2020, but some significant parallels to 2007 that I've highlighted here pretty extensively to the jest of many. And as I've warned about, we might be seeing the beginning of bond yields entering a significant decline, an event that precedes (and causes) FED rate cut reaction usually leading to a significant drawdown in broader markets. What will be the catalyst? Israel / Lebanon / Iran full out war? CMBS meltdown leading to commercial real estate collapse with regional banks in tailspin? Spike in unemployment? Joe Biden stepping down? Yen blowup with Japan selling off US treasuries to support their own currency? Who knows. I certainly can'tpredict the catalyst, but I do feel that a big catalyst is coming. Market breadth is weak and waiting on something.

I've formed a significant amount of bullish energy positions - XLE, COP, HES, DVN, APA, NOV, KOS, MRO, BRY, SWN, WTI, OXY, BKR, TALO. Considering OKE, KMI, EOG, XOM. I am loaded up in metals and bullish metal options. Shares include SLV, GLD, GDX, EGO, PAAS, SSRM, HMY, AG, AGQ, GOLD, PLTM, IMPUY, ARMN, NG, NEM, RGDFF, SAND, HL, WRN, TSRMF, HCHDF, ADMLF, ARAAF, FTCO, GORO, FSM, CDE. I have calls for SLV $26, $28, and $30 in July, September, and November. I have PAAS calls for October. I have AGQ $50 calls for September. I'm in on puts for XLF, XHB, PTLR, CAVA (July.. running out of time but might re-engage for Sugust or September), SPY, DIA, IWM, and CLSK (short term, and then likely going long). I got greedy on TLT and moved my stop up and got stopped out. But it is working on re-confirming bullishness which could take it to $105. I'm close to initiating bullish positions on two forex pairs - EURUSD and AUDUSD. Both are setting up for potential big moves and would make sense if we are dropping rates in the next 1-2 months. When we started raising rates I was short on EURUSD and it fell hard. Would expecting the opposite if the FED is dropping in similar fashion to 2007 or 2020. I have a small handful of non-energy non-metals equity positions with TSLA being the main one.

If TSLA holds $200 on any pullback, and certainly if it holds $220, $300 is on the radar. Recent high was a significant resistance zone. I debated selling calls but I'm just not in a position where I want to take a chance of losing my shares when I worked hard to lower my basis from $220 to $185 range, or losing my flexibility should TSLA do what it has historically done in times like this and go parabolic. And if it comes back down, I'm not worried. This is one of the few companies I am very long term hold or die on. I am regretting not doubling my position near the lows. Can't be perfect all the time.

I'm not posting much because I just don't have much to add right now. Nothing has really changed with the market melting up on weak breadth. It's awesome if your cashing in as it continues to do so. But if all of your gains are unrealized, I think there is a significant risk you will end the year with all of them gone. I said a while back that I was done being a broken record. Many of you have completely different views than me, and its just not worth arguing about. So execute your plan and I will execute mine. I'm up significantly on the year having mostly not participated in equities. I don't have exposure to what I deem are the greatest risks right now. And as always, when I see evidence to go against my predominant views, I absolutely will update my positions. Always be looking for the NEXT bull market. Because when the one you are in ends, if you don't have a plan of action, you are srewed and end up lost.