As always! LOL

The SPY and APT option flow is really weird right now. Some decent OTM calls on the SPY weeklies for under $.5 with $500k spent. Seems really weird...

Complete shot in the dark here, but I think the Trump presser today might be something about wearing masks and some sort of resumption of life announcement. Just seems really weird the way they all came in together the last few 10 minutes

How do you guys choose your strike prices and expirations? From the charts you look at?

For example selling a WYNN put for this friday 4/3 at $45 exercise price gets to .50/share. That would be another 17% decline in stock price on top of today's 9-10% drop today. $50/4,500 capital = 1.11% 2-day return.

Obviously a higher exercise price say ~$50 gets you more premium.

So I guess one strategy being more convservative but also emphasis is on trying to collect premium vs goal of purchasing stock at a slight discount?

IrishTxAggie said:

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The SPY and APT option flow is really weird right now. Some decent OTM calls on the SPY weeklies for under $.5 with $500k spent. Seems really weird...

Complete shot in the dark here, but I think the Trump presser today might be something about wearing masks and some sort of resumption of life announcement. Just seems really weird the way they all came in together the last few 10 minutes

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Was listening to Rush at lunch and he is on the WARPATH that we don't have a set of conditions that give us guidance on how to open back up. I almost feel like he's sending messages to the WH who I'm sure has designated listeners for that show TBH.

One of Rush's quick points was masks.

I'm seeing odd **** in my data as well today. Dunno if it's good or bad or for who

claym711 said:

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I'm seeing odd **** in my data as well today. Dunno if it's good or bad or for who

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Care to elaborate a little bit? What has caught your eye?

McInnis 03 said:

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claym711 said:

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I'm seeing odd **** in my data as well today. Dunno if it's good or bad or for who

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Care to elaborate a little bit? What has caught your eye?

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For me it was the SPY calls that are a good bit OTM getting hit for $250k+ on blocks and sweep orders. Typically I see those gambles taken to the tune of $20-50k/order. Not quarter million plus orders.

Guessing you went short back at the 2630 rejection, congrats!

Do you still think 2400-2450 is just a short-term pullback before we head to 2800??

Anybody bullish of Shopify?
not today, but in general

Abnormally mild readings on some custom stuff for the day's range, gap, or VIX Level, especially after that drop. I'm short 2502 and expected deeper.

I am bullish on their biz. SHOP seems to be leading universal platform for quick secure order execution on many retail websites. No idea if that can be easily replicated or disrupted, or if valuation is proportional.

Yes I did!

Yes I feel that way, but I trade based on levels. So to the downside I'll be watching 2470. We breach that we are going 2380. If we breach that then we are testing the previous low again. If not, we move back to 2800 area, but again in levels.

One thing to note is that these are levels all Pro Traders and Algos know. The job of the Big money is to **** you and take your money. So there will be lots of head fakes around those levels. We saw that with 2630 on Monday and Tuesday and as you can see, we are dancing around 2470.

TSLA and AAPL heading for gap fills?

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

Thanks for feedback on SHOP, glad to see i'm not the only one buying the kool-aid on it.
I basically want companies that will gain share during the crisis, since nobody can time the extent of the crisis.
And SHOP should come out on the other side with more share of their market than today.

2700 in play or is it cascade down time?

aggiedaniel06 said:

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Yes I did!

Yes I feel that way, but I trade based on levels. So to the downside I'll be watching 2470. We breach that we are going 2380. If we breach that then we are testing the previous low again. If not, we move back to 2800 area, but again in levels.

One thing to note is that these are levels all Pro Traders and Algos know. The job of the Big money is to **** you and take your money. So there will be lots of head fakes around those levels. We saw that with 2630 on Monday and Tuesday and as you can see, we are dancing around 2470.

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Bulls coming in late to try and get over the 2470 mark

I'd like a good bounce tomorrow so I can unload this VST I picked up today at $15.20, then I'll be ready again for the dip.

I put in my long term sell orders in today. They are 10-20% under current prices. If anything fills, I'll hold it for 2+ years.

gougler08 said:

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aggiedaniel06 said:

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Yes I did!

Yes I feel that way, but I trade based on levels. So to the downside I'll be watching 2470. We breach that we are going 2380. If we breach that then we are testing the previous low again. If not, we move back to 2800 area, but again in levels.

One thing to note is that these are levels all Pro Traders and Algos know. The job of the Big money is to **** you and take your money. So there will be lots of head fakes around those levels. We saw that with 2630 on Monday and Tuesday and as you can see, we are dancing around 2470.

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Bulls coming in late to try and get over the 2470 mark

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Magic!

You were off by 0.5 points... you suck!

aggiedaniel06 said:

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gougler08 said:

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aggiedaniel06 said:

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Yes I did!

Yes I feel that way, but I trade based on levels. So to the downside I'll be watching 2470. We breach that we are going 2380. If we breach that then we are testing the previous low again. If not, we move back to 2800 area, but again in levels.

One thing to note is that these are levels all Pro Traders and Algos know. The job of the Big money is to **** you and take your money. So there will be lots of head fakes around those levels. We saw that with 2630 on Monday and Tuesday and as you can see, we are dancing around 2470.

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Bulls coming in late to try and get over the 2470 mark

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Magic!

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Real question is does that signify further down, or back up a bit?

Tested it and got smacked down. Now it's below that AH.

Need to see what futures do. I believe we are heading down and will test 2380 either tomorrow or Friday.

aggiedaniel06 said:

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Yes I did!

Yes I feel that way, but I trade based on levels. So to the downside I'll be watching 2470. We breach that we are going 2380. If we breach that then we are testing the previous low again. If not, we move back to 2800 area, but again in levels.

One thing to note is that these are levels all Pro Traders and Algos know. The job of the Big money is to **** you and take your money. So there will be lots of head fakes around those levels. We saw that with 2630 on Monday and Tuesday and as you can see, we are dancing around 2470.

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The long term up trend proved too much resistance in the 2650 area. Tested it 3 times and failed to break through. I went short or long SH as well yesterday at the close. We may fill the gap at 2300-2350.

I keep reading 1,800 being the ultimate bottom-out for S&P.

I understand this number from a technical perspective, but, who's to say 1,800 doesn't get blown through?

Just thinking out loud here b/c our entire landscape has changed. Folks not working for several months is a BIG deal, and we still haven't solved for the catalyst (virus) that kicked this into hyper-drive.

I'm reading about food lines in real-time. Food lines, folks. Totally unsustainable.

None of this happened in 2000 or 2008-2009.

Again just thinking out loud.

Nobody knows the bottom. It's like trying to predict the exact final score of a football game a few minutes into the first quarter.

What I believe is that just like football, its going to take a few quarters to figure it out.

What happened to RDS at the close? Last I checked it was up like 3% then suddenly went down over 20%...

Never mind now it's green again. Must have been a glitch on my app. Thank god.

What's the low point so far in all this for the S&P ?

aggiedaniel06 said:

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Nobody knows the bottom. It's like trying to predict the exact final score of a football game a few minutes into the first quarter.

What I believe is that just like football, its going to take a few quarters to figure it out.

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I'm in agreement.

I also don't see a whole lot of people stopping to ask themselves, "oh ****, what if this thing is worse than 1929/2000/2009".

Well in 2008-2009 the market dropped like 60%, we are at what 28% give or take?
This feels worse.

jj9000 said:

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I'm reading about food lines in real-time. Food lines, folks.

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Where? I saw a line at popeyes yesterday...

aggiepaintrain said:

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Well in 2008-2009 the market dropped like 60%, we are at what 28% give or take?
This feels worse.

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And worse than 9/11 because at least after that we could go anywhere or do anything we wanted.

This has been a full stop.