gougler08 said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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His stance two weeks ago. Mind you, things change...........

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You could sell April 45 puts for $2.75 right now if you're looking to enter long

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Literally just sold those

tam2002 said:

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My initial buy in on WYNN was 55 a couple weeks ago. I never sold as its more of a long play for me, but if it dips in the 40s again ill be buying more

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YEP!!

Interesting analysis.

clay711 pointed this out a few weeks ago.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/a-66-billion-etf-haul-worries-bulls-looking-for-signs-of-bottom

Just a reminder that our friend TLRA has finished the merger and now trades under the RUBI ticker.

gougler08 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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Yeah, let it be called out and reload. Check to make sure that you have to stay out of that stock for 30 days and then you'll get the tax benefit for the minor hickey.

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Yeah I think best case would be that we retest after 30 days...but I'm highly doubtful that's the case. If we get down to the 220/230 SPY level soon I may rebuy even though I wouldn't get the loss due to the wash sale rule

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Why not sell a put for next month at the level you want to rebuy at? Or are you concerned with a big run-up over the next month and not being able to exercise those puts?

leoj said:

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Just a reminder that our friend TLRA has finished the merger and now trades under the RUBI ticker.

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If we're holding a long position, we should see our stock swap to RUBI sometime in the next couple of days, yes?

jj9000 said:

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Interesting analysis.

clay711 pointed this out a few weeks ago.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/a-66-billion-etf-haul-worries-bulls-looking-for-signs-of-bottom

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I don't think looking at the 1st Qtr is a proper way to make a determination.

We hit a high midway through the qtr, and most of the time, people buy like crazy into the high and sell like crazy into the low. Best to look at weekly or even monthly flows.

NRD09 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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zpack has generic, hydrochlorowhatever doesn't. If this holds water teva should get like 8 zillion orders, right? But it's down today and I'm buying calls. What am I missing?

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Teva isn't the only maker. And according to this article, they are donating 16M tablets to hospitals (damn evil big pharm). Don't be surpised if big pharma doesn't cash in huge on this.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/new-commitments-mylan-and-teva-move-to-supply-tens-millions-hydroxychloroquine-tablets-to

The drug is cheap and competitive and there are other headwinds to the industry. While there are lots of COVID patients out their overall hospital populations are way down. My wife works in an ER and said their totals are down >50%. People don't get hurt when they are at home watching Netflix and marginally sick patients don't want to go to the hospitals because they don't' want to catch CV.

Additionally, the other issue is hospitals are canceling elective surgeries. In most hospitals that's as much as 80% of surgical patients and a major revenue driver for most hospitals. All in all, I think it's going to have a major downward pressure on the pharmas as well.

gougler08 said:

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So I've put alerts on the following when they get near their last bottom points, any other good opportunities you guys are looking at?

PENN
DIS
RCL
BA
WYNN

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RH
AMD
BBY

Harkrider 93 said:

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jj9000 said:

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Interesting analysis.

clay711 pointed this out a few weeks ago.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/a-66-billion-etf-haul-worries-bulls-looking-for-signs-of-bottom

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I don't think looking at the 1st Qtr is a proper way to make a determination.

We hit a high midway through the qtr, and most of the time, people buy like crazy into the high and sell like crazy into the low. Best to look at weekly or even monthly flows.

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I think the point is that people are still dumping money into ETFs which outpace the outflows.

Look at last week/month Inflows/Outflow for the big boys.

https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool

Premise is still the same.

Trolley Problems said:

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gougler08 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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Yeah, let it be called out and reload. Check to make sure that you have to stay out of that stock for 30 days and then you'll get the tax benefit for the minor hickey.

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Yeah I think best case would be that we retest after 30 days...but I'm highly doubtful that's the case. If we get down to the 220/230 SPY level soon I may rebuy even though I wouldn't get the loss due to the wash sale rule

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Why not sell a put for next month at the level you want to rebuy at? Or are you concerned with a big run-up over the next month and not being able to exercise those puts?

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Depends on what I can get for the puts...selling the put ties up capital for however long you have it open for so not sure I want the $$ tied up when other stocks may present better value

Fair point. I guess my thinking with selling the put was if you really liked this stock in particular and knew you wanted to be in it long term. But if you don't want to sideline the cash for a month waiting to see if those shares get put to you or not, then I get what you're saying.

I'm learning too.

jj9000 said:

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Harkrider 93 said:

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jj9000 said:

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Interesting analysis.

clay711 pointed this out a few weeks ago.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/a-66-billion-etf-haul-worries-bulls-looking-for-signs-of-bottom

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I don't think looking at the 1st Qtr is a proper way to make a determination.

We hit a high midway through the qtr, and most of the time, people buy like crazy into the high and sell like crazy into the low. Best to look at weekly or even monthly flows.

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I think the point is that people are still dumping money into ETFs which outpace the outflows.

Look at last week/month Inflows/Outflow for the big boys.

https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool

Premise is still the same.

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There is a huge outflow of stock funds and a slight inflow of stock ETFs. The net is negative.

Below is a firm that researches both and they show negative outflows in Feb for stock ETFs. The above article is lumping bond and stock ETFs. Then, they are taking stock ETFs for a 3 mos time frame. It may be misleading, especially when taken with the research below.

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/icieqbnd.pdf

On the ETF website you showed, I looked at that when clay posted and again when you did. If you add up just the top 10 stock ETF inflow and same for outlow, the outflow was greater. The same for bonds, except inflows were greater. This coincides with the way it almost always is and with the article I attached.

Edit: on the ETF flow site, the inflow is actually greater than outflow (barely), but last week was a positive week for stocks, so you would expect that due to history. People buy when the market is up and sell when it is down. I would bet that even though we had a positive inflow for the week based on the top 10 ETFs (which do not include mutual funds), I bet the month was heavily outflow.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

Anyone on the 4/9 SPY $240p? Are you holding or selling?

Either data set, one can certainly say there has been no capitulation or cash crunch requiring redemptions. One can also speculate with some certainty that as we move forward in time in a recession, both will occur.

This thread is a good mix of retail traders and investors. Most are still buying

I think we're talking past each other to some degree.

I'm not talking about a marginal net positive/negative.

I'm talking about widespread capitulation. People throwing in the towel.

For example, looking at VOO last week suggests there isn't widespread capitulation.

I had read from Jeff Saut (not sure where he got his info) that we had the largest single day sell of retail stock funds last week.

Also, below is the weekly outflows. For stock mutual fund , it was the largest weekly outflow ever. More than 2008.

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/ecoindiciwk.pdf

The above sounds more like capitulation, but maybe it still isn't here.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

Picked up Wynn at 54 and MGM at 11

Who still holds mutual funds?

I guess that is more dumb money?



Looking at week of 2/26, ETFs sold off huge and funds were sold off very little.

For week of 3/25, ETFs bought a little, but funds sold off huge.


To me, funds look normal and may have signs of capitulation,. I don't know what to make of ETFs. Also, I would wonder if percentages is a better indicator due to how much money is in funds and ETFs now vs 12 yrs ago, especially ETFs.

ehrmantraut said:

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Picked up Wynn at 54 and MGM at 11

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Really good buys ...

Another interesting stat having to do with funds vs ETFs:

Dec 2018, we saw the biggest outflow of stock funds since 2008, but saw an inflow of ETFs.


Given that and this month's data, it makes me wonder if we should be watching funds for outflows.

Loaded up on some H&P options and outright purchase of PXD. Both balance sheets looks pretty good comparatively

Hope their is some representation from independent E&P's. Should be some good awkward moments between Vicki and Mike Wirth.

Anybody else feel like a boat without a rudder with OA not here today?

Mask plays APT and LAKE today

I've been riding XOM up and down all day. Gotta stick with familiarity when someone like WhaleArmy1's not around.

Aggie_2463 said:

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Anybody else feel like a boat without a rudder with OA not here today?

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Yes. All the short term bulls of earlier in the week to let us know if this is true reversal ending of bull trap OR a head fake into a strong finish to week??? Lots of talk about Fed backstop and not getting caught short has diminished.

I feel like this may be an anomaly where Model T 50% retracement fails due to unprecedented bad news of shutdown extension and constant doom from NYC.