toucan82 said:

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He's also the snow monkey ambassador

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I would like to have a series of discussions based on segments of the Rangers.
- Outfield
- Middle Infield
- Corner Infield
- Starting Pitching
- Relief Pitching (as if you really project that)

Let's start with OF.
Inventory:

On the Major League roster:
Choo (35-LHB): 3 yr/$62M - He is more of a DH, than an OF. He has maybe 2018 in the OF.
Mazara (22-LHB): Serf+3yrs Arb - He is more of a DH, than an OF. 2018 OF, then DH.
DeShields (25-RHB): Serf+3yrs Arb. Serviceable CF.
Calhoun (23-LHB): Serf. Could be a serviceable LF.
Rua (27-RHB): 4yrs Arb. 4th OF.
Hoying (28-LHB). 4th OF.
Profar (24-SHB): 3yrs of Arb. He will be gone, so it doesn't matter.

Others?
Joey Gallo (23-LHB): Serf. Is his future at corner IF, DH? LF?

Top 30 Prospects:

In order of projected promotion to MBL:
2. Willie Calhoun (23-L-AAA-2018): 29G, .310, 8 HR, 1 SB, 12 K. See above
24. Scott Heineman (24-R-AA-2018): 117G, .284, 9 HR, 12 SB, 121 K. Could he pass Rua\Hoying in the org for 2018? Is he have a long-term option? Can play all 3 OF positions.
11. Yanio Perez (22-R-A+-2019): 74G, .253, 5 HR, 3 SB, 66K. Can he be a RF option? I guess if Ron Guzman and Gallo solidify 1B, his future with Texas would have to be RF.
1. Leody Taveras (19-S-A-2020): .249, 8HR, 20 SB. Is he the CF we won't trade and be what we've been waiting for?
30. Eric Jenkins (20-L-A-2020): 73G, .207, 1 HR, 10 SB, 82 K
26. Miguel Aparicio (18-L-Ash-2020): 70G, .293, 4 HR, 2 SB, 39K)
20. Pedro Gonzalez (20-R-Ash-2020): No real reference
5. Bubba Thompson (19-R-2021): Too far out

From Scott Lucas' Org chart

On the farm:
Jose Cardona (23-RHB): CF:
AAA- 4G, .176, 0HR, 2SB
AA - 109 G, .277, 7 HR, 14 SB, 48 SO

Preston Beck (27-LHB): RF? 66G, .245, 1 HR, 2 SB <- Kinda long in the tooth

AA
Michael O'Neill (25-RHB): 74G, .262, 8 HR, 12 SB, 82 SO <- He is playing this offseason. Saw good numbers.
Luke Tendler (26-LHB): 113G, .245, 13 HR, 1 SB, 104 SO

A+
Preston Scott (24-RHB): 73G, .256, 5 HR, 5 SB, 54 SO
Ledarious Clark (23-RHB): 119G, .228, 13 HR, 20 SB, 143 SO <- Looks like a thug. I think he has had one suspension for PEDs. He was a beast long ago.

A: Hickory
Tanner Gardner (22-LHB): 44G, .217, 1 HR, 1 SB, 38 SO


All that to say, we need a seriously solid OF with like a 3 year deal. If JD trades Profar, I hope it is for a solid RF.

I could see:
Calhoun- DeShields-Mazara\Choo in 2018 and 2019, but that won't be pretty.

If we could get a CF in FA, then great. Some speculation has it that if we miss on SP, then we'll sign a CF. The problem I see with our OF is lots of Lefties, lots of Ks, and lots of meh...

We have some projected talent, but very little. Meanwhile MLB is littered with former Rangers OF prospects.

Any thoughts?

My thought is the Rangers don't have a decent solution to the outfield issue but they may have some decent options when they need a DH.

To be a little more serious,

I don't know what you do about Choo. He obviously needs to be at DH if he's going to be with this club but I don't think he's going to be the kind of player you'd want at DH in the coming seasons. A .260 hitter with OK power? You want more than that.

As far as Mazara, the Rangers need to do some soul searching. He's probably not got a future as an acceptable defender in the outfield. And his offense, as exciting as it can be sometimes, just hasn't been there if you look at the full body of work.

He's been at 0.9 and 0.7 oWAR and we can go through all the stats but he's just not putting it all together offensively.

Maybe he can since he's still a young guy, but if that happens, man, you probably want him at DH.

Calhoun...DH. But if you're going to give him a go in the outfield, he needs to be there every night. Don't fiddle around on that and if that means more time in AAA to play LF every night, then you do it for the long term health of the club even if he might fit in as a utility OF/DH with the big club.

DeShields...had a good year, as he gets a little older and the defense or base running slips as those tend to do once you've been in the league even just 4 or 5 seasons, I'm not sure there'll be enough offense there to be a long term solution. But he is passable right now.

The Rangers have to find more guys that can hit above .270...DeShields isn't going to be one of them.


Ive got some solid positives though once you get to some other positions.

Nolan's most lasting impact was ****ing up the TV booth. He's an ornery figurehead.

JD has been a very good GM. I'm impressed they didn't take a bigger, more extended step back after the 2010-2011 runs. They need a little time now to reset the table, but I have faith they will.

Mazara needs to continue to develop at the plate, but I'm counting on a still 22 year old being able to do it. Really need the young quartet of Mazara, Calhoun, Odor, and Gallo to find their way so that a pitching staff $$$ investment can deliver.

Time to bite the bullet on Choo, pick up a big chunk of his salary, and see if you can't at least get a bullpen contributor for your trouble. I dont believe in throwing $$$ at individual relievers because they can be a year to year proposition. But I do believe that quantity leads to quality.

I don't love Choo at DH, but if he can put up a 370+ OBP with some pop then he's plenty valuable in the lineup.

It's just tough to look at the roster and make decisions on what we can/can't tolerate in the field until we know what the rotation is going to look like. If Texas can't land two front-end guys (Ohtani/Darvish/Cobb/Lynn/Arrieta), then might as well sacrifice outfield defense because you're going to have to out-slug everyone to win.

RebelgentlemenE2 said:

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Nolan Ryan owned Josh Daniels.

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On the diamond yes, in the front office no

I think SP will be the next position for us to tackle. Even JD acknowledged our OF will be dictated by the SP.

Before we get there... let's chat about Rule V. The deadline for rosters is today.

MLBTR does a great job laying things out, so I'll start there.

Points:
Rangers have 10 open spots (only 30 on the 40). I thought they had 34, but let's go with what is listed since it is probably more correct.

Referenced is a Mayo article on MLB, which details the likely players to be added.

For Texas that is (Rangers' Prospect rank) Position, age in decimal and proj. organization level listed:
(9). Ariel Jurado, RHP-21.8-AAA: 27 GS, 4.59 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 157.0 IP, 95 SO <- He'll be added
(10). Brett Martin, (LHP-22.6-AA): @A+ 16GS, 4.70 ERA, 1.530 WHIP, 84.1 IP, 90 SO <- He'll be added
(12). Joe Palumbo, (LHP-23.1-A+): @A+ 3GS, 0.66 ERA, 0.585 WHIP, 13.2 IP, 22SO <- Not sure about him. I think he had an injury in 2017?
(13). Jose Trevino, (C-25.0-AAA): @ AA-105G, .275, 7HR <- He'll be added. He is a converted SS, IIRC
(21). Jonathan Hernandez, (RHP-21.4-AA): @A+: 13GS, 4.41, 1.485 ERA, 65.1 IP, 64SO <- IIRC, he had a rough 2016 and started to pull out of it late in 2017.
(28). Michael De Leon, (SS-20.9-?AA?), @AA-112G, .223, 2 HR, 3SB <- He'll be added or traded.

A list of Rangers eligible players can be found here.

I think Michael O'Neill (yes related to Paul. Nephew?) is playing winter ball and was doing very well. I think I mentioned him and Cardona regarding OFs.

I've followed Ledbetter and Wolff at a high level statistically, but don't recall much about them.

A reminder... a team must have an open roster spot on the 40, in order to pick someone off Rule V, which will take place December 14. Any player selected must remain on the 25 for an entire year.

I would expect the Ranges to make a move or two before the deadline. They might move Profar (unlikely, since they will have more leverage after the Rule V, IMO). They could do a 2:1 getting 2 MLB-Ready players giving up 1. They will likely add several. IIRC, JD has historically left 2-3 spots open so he can pick up a player or two. He'll likely look at teams like NYY and LAD for players

LAD have a couple guys - Trevor Oaks,
Dennis Santana
Erick Mejia (22): @AA - 102G, .289, 7 HR, 25 SB <- Run him as your Util IF.

San Diego is terrible. 0 players expected to be added, with 2 spots open. They could be picking up 2.

I'd expect the Marlins to make some moves. 6 Open spots, with 9 players to protect. 5 project at AAA or better for 2018. Stanton will assuredly be moved before Spring Training. Before deadline tonight? Probably not.

Rangers get RHP Ronald Herrera from Yankees AAA team as Yanks clear off space on their 40 man roster.

Yankees grabbed some Int'l money.

Atlanta is likely to lose several Int'l players, tomorrow.

It would seem the Rangers and Yankees are the top 2 options for Ohtani. I'm guessing the victor uses all of their Int'l money, while the other scoops up the former Braves players. Kevin Maitan seems to be a likely loss. 17 year old from Vz.

The odds of winning this sweepstakes vs the yankees seem infinitesimal.

DallasAg 94 said:

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LAD have a couple guys - Trevor Oaks,
Dennis Santana
Erick Mejia (22): @AA - 102G, .289, 7 HR, 25 SB <- Run him as your Util IF.

San Diego is terrible. 0 players expected to be added, with 2 spots open. They could be picking up 2.

I'd expect the Marlins to make some moves. 6 Open spots, with 9 players to protect. 5 project at AAA or better for 2018. Stanton will assuredly be moved before Spring Training. Before deadline tonight? Probably not.

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Dodgers did add Oaks and Santana.

Marlins were pretty active, as well.

Rangers have the most to spend but at this point I don't know how much of a difference that makes. He's already leaving a ton of money on the table to come over here so I don't think a few hundreds of thousands of dollars will sway him. Odds of signing him aren't great but if the consolation prize is a shopping spree in the DR and Venezuela then I'll gladly take it.

At the end of the day I'm not sure anybody know what his true motivations are. I could see him signing one place as easily as the other. I agree that the difference in money doesn't seem like it's going to make much of a difference though.

From an outsider I don't think the contract money is a big deal to him. Him passing on so much money to come now makes me believe Ohtani is banking on the endorsement money.

With that in mind I think he's going to want to be in NY where he can get max exposure and sign some lucrative deals with both American and Japanese companies.

The Rangers just don't have that to offer and think that's what sways him to the Yanks.

Can you really see him signing one place as easily as the other?

You are motivated to prove to the world you can be a superstar in MLB just as you were in Japan and your choices are the:

Texas Rangers

or

New York Yankees


A few of the local beat-writers and the Newberg-likes have tried to paint a highly optimistic picture, but truth is being able to off him $100k more than another team as our "big advantage" is pretty negligible. When Darvish was on the roster and we could offer the most money, I'd say our chances were maybe 20%... Now probably under 10%.

We were much better suited to win a closed-bid/post like we had with Darvish.

Yes. I could. I already said the money wasn't going to be a difference maker. I just don't think we have a particular handle on what the guy actually places value on.

I posted on here a few weeks ago.

The idea of baseball players with lucrative endorsement deals is just not supported. We are talking about someone like Jeter who had the best deal. This 2014 article has Jeter at $8-9M (1st) and Pujols at #2 ($3M).

At best, we are likely talking $1M/yr.

I don't know what if any chance the Rangers have for signing him.

I think the conversation likely goes something like:
Texas: Aside from an almost immediate role in the rotation, here is our OF: LF(Open), CF(Open), RF (Mazara)."
Yankees have Ellsbury ($21M), Gardner ($11M), Aaron Hicks and Aaron Judge.

Granted the Rangers have at DH: Choo, Calhoun, Gallo, Rua, Mazara, Guzman, et al.

Ohtani did not pitch much (if at all) in 2017 and had ankle surgery a few weeks ago. I don't expect him to be much of a pitching contributor in 2018. I don't know if he is suited to play OF. If DH is where he wants some time, he would not be suited for the Rangers... and NY may require moving a player or two.

Info on Braves Int'l prospects... Looks like they will lose some talent from their Top 30 on MLB:

#5 Kevin Maitan (SS-17-SHB): ETA (2020)

Quote:

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The Venezuelan teenager has been compared to Miguel Sano and his ceiling has been put side-by-side with the likes of Miguel Cabrera and Chipper Jones. He has pop from both sides, with perhaps a touch more from the right side, and has shown an advanced approach at the plate, especially for his age. While he's not a runner, he is agile and athletic in the field. That, along with a tremendous arm and excellent instincts, make some think he can stay at short long-term. Others think he'll eventually have to move to third, though he can be a plus defender there.

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#30 Abraham Gutierrez (C-18-RHB): ETA (2021)

Quote:

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The teenaged backstop held his own on both sides of the ball. Defensively, his arm is his standout tool, and he threw out 38 percent of would-be basestealers during his debut. He has good hands and overall catching skills to go along with his ability to control the running game. There are offensive tools to work with as well, with the Braves believing he could be a Major League average hitter with above-average power down the road. He did have a solid approach and kept his strikeouts low in the GCL and can use the entire field well. He is a well below-average runner.

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Obviously nothing to contribute short-term.

We should also learn today the fate of the new posting terms for Japanese players.

With Rule V rosters set and draft in a few weeks... it will be interesting to see if anything happens before the Rule V. The Rangers have 3 open spots, and they have 2 DL60s. The DL60s get moved off the 40, at some point. NYY have 1 DL60. I'm not sure what their 40 looks like, but I know they were trying to trade players they thought they would lose, in order to get younger talent that could be stashed.

Once posting rules are finalized, it would seem Ohtani would sign quickly, no? Unless other moves are required to make room on the roster.

Looks like Braves will forfeit 12 players in total. HUGE.

From the article:

Quote:

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The players will have restrictions on their free agency. They will be eligible to sign with another club for another signing bonus beginning on Dec. 5 up until Jan. 15. After Jan. 15, the player is still allowed to sign but cannot receive an additional signing bonus. Only the amount of the signing bonus beyond $200,000 will count toward a team's signing bonus pool. Players are allowed to re-sign with the Braves, but if they choose to do so, they must wait until May 1 to sign with them and can't receive an additional signing bonus.

Read more at https://www.baseballamerica.com/international/mlb-removing-prospects-braves/#asYWXczL5AmHcJjw.99

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That is HUGE. If I read that correctly... the Rangers could sign players for $300K, with only the additional $100K to draw from their Int'l Pool. There is a window of 45 days to sign to get more money, so there will be urgency for the players to sign.

When you look at all the teams that have Int'l money left... the Rangers (and Yanks) have a tremendous leverage to get players. Granted there are only 12. Many of them are 17/18 and have had a season in the Gulf Rk league... so you have at least a window of how they perform against other MLB prospect talent.

I would think Ohtani gets signed before Dec 5.

Lucky #007 said:

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Yes. I could. I already said the money wasn't going to be a difference maker. I just don't think we have a particular handle on what the guy actually places value on.

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I agree we don't... but then it would stand to reason you start making a list of what things a potential superstar player might place value on:

Marketing/endorsements - NYY
Historical prestige - NYY
Media exposure - NYY
Team with best playoff chances - NYY
Team with deeper pockets come first big contract - NYY



I mean, maybe he realllly likes the Dallas Cowboys... Or he wants to own some farmland... Or he just really digs 100 degree weather...

But so far in the history of the Rangers franchise there has been very few players they have been able to win over versus significant competition in free agency... and when it comes to front-line starting pitchers that list gets even shorter. We snagged Darvish because he didn't have a choice -- Ohtani does.

Does the history of JD scouting him and the negligible amount of money over competitors we can offer him give us a chance? Absolutely.

But to say why you can't see why an international superstar would favor the New York Yankees over the Texas Rangers is just being purposely obtuse.

And it looks like the Ohtani posting situation is settled. Will post on or sometime shortly after a week from Friday, with 21 days to negotiate.

So we'll know by Christmas where he will play.

free_mhayden said:

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Lucky #007 said:

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Yes. I could. I already said the money wasn't going to be a difference maker. I just don't think we have a particular handle on what the guy actually places value on.

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I agree we don't... but then it would stand to reason you start making a list of what things a potential superstar player might place value on:

Marketing/endorsements - NYY
Historical prestige - NYY
Media exposure - NYY
Team with best playoff chances - NYY
Team with deeper pockets come first big contract - NYY



I mean, maybe he realllly likes the Dallas Cowboys... Or he wants to own some farmland... Or he just really digs 100 degree weather...

But so far in the history of the Rangers franchise there has been very few players they have been able to win over versus significant competition in free agency... and when it comes to front-line starting pitchers that list gets even shorter. We snagged Darvish because he didn't have a choice -- Ohtani does.

Does the history of JD scouting him and the negligible amount of money over competitors we can offer him give us a chance? Absolutely.

But to say why you can't see why an international superstar would favor the New York Yankees over the Texas Rangers is just being purposely obtuse.

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Except I never said that. I said I could see him doing one as easily as the other. I'm well aware of the numerous reasons a player would sign there rather than Texas.

Lucky #007 said:

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free_mhayden said:

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Lucky #007 said:

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Yes. I could. I already said the money wasn't going to be a difference maker. I just don't think we have a particular handle on what the guy actually places value on.

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I agree we don't... but then it would stand to reason you start making a list of what things a potential superstar player might place value on:

Marketing/endorsements - NYY
Historical prestige - NYY
Media exposure - NYY
Team with best playoff chances - NYY
Team with deeper pockets come first big contract - NYY



I mean, maybe he realllly likes the Dallas Cowboys... Or he wants to own some farmland... Or he just really digs 100 degree weather...

But so far in the history of the Rangers franchise there has been very few players they have been able to win over versus significant competition in free agency... and when it comes to front-line starting pitchers that list gets even shorter. We snagged Darvish because he didn't have a choice -- Ohtani does.

Does the history of JD scouting him and the negligible amount of money over competitors we can offer him give us a chance? Absolutely.

But to say why you can't see why an international superstar would favor the New York Yankees over the Texas Rangers is just being purposely obtuse.

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Except I never said that. I said I could see him doing one as easily as the other. I'm well aware of the numerous reasons a player would sign there rather than Texas.

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So then I guess you think there's an equal # of logical reasons he'd sign here rather than New York?

Or is your thinking that because we don't know what Ohtani is thinking, we should just ignore the major reasons almost every other player in the big leagues has for signing with a team?

I'm not disagreeing with you that we have a chance, but to say he could choose one as easily as the other because we just don't know what his thinking is... well hell, then I guess he could wind up a Milwaukee Brewer?

Maybe paying 9% Income Tax on his home games might pique his interest.

$3M X 0.0882 X81/162 = $132K

Spending $1.5-2.0 M for a postage stamp of a living place

Playing for fickle fans in a business-only environment might make for less than enjoyable times.

The old state income tax and cola argument. Haven't seen that one since the Kevin Millwood and Chan Ho Park era. Hope they can clean up on other international prospects. There is a great opportunity to restock the farm and improve the club here. But that improvement is going to be speaking spanish vs japanese.

Wherever he ends up it's gonna be fascinating to watch him play. He's essentially a created player out of a video game. Maybe he actually will get a chance to pitch and hit

DannyDuberstein said:

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The old state income tax and cola argument. Haven't seen that one since the Kevin Millwood and Chan Ho Park era. Hope they can clean up on other international prospects. There is a great opportunity to restock the farm and improve the club here. But that improvement is going to be speaking spanish vs japanese.

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It is a more legit argument than the "endorsements from NY" argument.

I know the Yankees picked up some cash from Florida ($300K?) in a recent trade, but this was the status a few weeks ago:

Int'l Pool Money

Quote:

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Texas Rangers $3,535,000
New York Yankees $3,250,000
Minnesota Twins $3,245,000
Pittsburgh Pirates $2,266,750
Miami Marlins $1,740,000
Seattle Mariners $1,570,500
Philadelphia Phillies $900,000
Milwaukee Brewers $765,000
Arizona Diamondbacks $731,250
Baltimore Orioles $660,000
Boston Red Sox $462,000

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I believe Ohtani goes to either Texas or NYY. I believe he won't be a MLB contributor to any rotation in 2018. With the vacating of players from Atlanta, I would prefer Ohtani go to NYY and the Rangers clean up on the players from Atlanta.

Listed are the top teams. Baltimore usually sells their money, instead of signing players.

5. Maitan (SS) - $4.25M
8. Gutierrez (C) - $3.53M
T16. Yunior Severino (SS) - $1.9M
T-27. Juan Contreras (RHP) - $1.2M
32. Yenci Pena (SS) - $1.05M
T33. Yefri del Rosario (RHP) - $1M
T33. Livan Soto (SS) - $1M

And Korean Jihwan Bae (SS) - $300K

$1.94M (Marlins - what they gave NYY+ $200K that doesn't count against pool for Braves players) would seem a floor to get at least 3 of the Top 6. Say the Yanks take Ohtani. The Rangers, Minnesota and Pittsburgh (in no order) would get the Top 3 on the list, if they wanted. Do you go quality or quantity? Let Minn and Pitt take Maitan and Gutierrez, then take the rest of the players you want?

Anything can happen, but really not sure where you are getting this new angle that you don't think Ohtani will pitch much in the MLB in 2018 because of injury (rather than because of his stuff -- which I haven't seen any scout consider it any worse than a back-end-rotation guy).

His ankle surgery went as expected and rehab puts him ready to go by mid-January. This isn't arm or shoulder surgery that you need large chunks of time before you even start throwing and then half a season to truly be back to 100%.

If there are no significant setbacks, he may not be ready to go Opening Day, but he'll certainly be ready for the majority of the 2018 season.

If his ankle isn't well enough for him to pitch, it's probably not going to be well enough for him to hit either.