Latest from Linder…changes on the horizon + tropics getting feisty
Changes…
Mid and upper level ridge of high pressure that has been anchored over Texas for weeks will shift around some this week.
Excessive heat and dryness continue over the area…Palacios, Texas has recorded 254 straight hours with a heat index above 100 degrees. College Station has now recorded 35 straight days with a maximum temperature of 100 or above and 13 straight days at 105 or above including 108 on the 11th. BUSH IAH has recorded 15 straight days at or above 100 degrees. While there is likely to be a slight amount of cooling this week…highs at or above 100 remain likely away from the coast.
Tuesday-Wednesday:
Mid level ridge retreats back some to the west with a trough passing over the Great Lakes. A weak front will sag into Texas Monday and move into SE TX late Monday into Tuesday. With the ridge having moved some, sinking air over SE TX will relax with the ridge not exerting as much influence. Will go with 20% chances of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday with the boundary crossing the area. This will not be drought busting rainfall…but a few lucky locations may see a good downpour…but these will come with a price (see Fire Weather below).
Dry air mass will spread into SE TX behind this weak boundary which looks to stall near or just south of the I-10 corridor. Unfortunately this currently does not look to bring any relief to the coastal counties which continue their oppressive simmer with the near 80 degree dewpoints and high heat index values even at night. North of I-10, dewpoints may fall into the upper 50's and low 60's by Tuesday evening and remain at those levels through Wednesday. Afternoon humidity levels will fall below 30-40% for these areas and while air temperatures will still be in the upper 90's and low 100's heat index values will be closer to those air temperatures instead of 10-15 degrees higher. Will likely be able to cut all the heat advisory and excessive heart warning products out for those areas by Wednesday.
Thursday-Weekend:
Mid level ridge builds back and then northeast of Texas…heat and humidity will be back in place by Thursday and heat index values are likely to push over advisory and/or into warning levels yet again. So whatever brief relief the area experiences on Tuesday and Wednesday will be quickly gone. However, the ridge parks off to the northeast and this does open the door for increasing Gulf moisture to begin to spread toward Texas next weekend and especially into the following week (see Tropics below).
Fire Weather:
Fuel loads remain critically dry, but winds have been slowly coming down each day. Similar conditions to this weekend will be in place on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature our frontal boundary crossing the area with dry air sinking into the region. Afternoon humidity values on Tuesday and Wednesday will be very low north of HWY 105 (less than 30%) and this may reach down toward I-10. Winds will be out of the north or northeast at 5-15mph (not overly strong), but with critically dry fuel loads and a dry and well mixed air mass there will be potential for fire. Additionally, isolated storms near and around the boundary may ignite fires (this could be as early as Monday evening up north and northeast) and then dropping across more of the area Tuesday. Any isolated storms could also produce gusty winds which could quickly fan any fire and result in erratic behavior.
Tropics:
While there is nothing of immediate concern…conditions do look to be changing over the next 7-10 days toward more favorable for tropical cyclone formation. With the position of the mid level ridge next week located to the northeast of Texas, this will open the potential for tropical waves to move into and across the Gulf of Mexico and toward the Texas coast. The GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all show a decent tropical wave axis moving into and across the Gulf and reaching Texas around the 21/22. Some of the operational guidance and their ensemble members show this feature trying to close off a surface low while nearing the NW Gulf coast. Will have to watch this time period for model consistency over the next few days. Generally speaking the upper air pattern looks increasingly favorable for tropical development with a large surge of tropical moisture moving into the Gulf latter this week, rising air over the eastern Pacific moving into the Gulf early next week, and of course the well above average Gulf water temperatures sitting in the upper 80's.
Changes…
Mid and upper level ridge of high pressure that has been anchored over Texas for weeks will shift around some this week.
Excessive heat and dryness continue over the area…Palacios, Texas has recorded 254 straight hours with a heat index above 100 degrees. College Station has now recorded 35 straight days with a maximum temperature of 100 or above and 13 straight days at 105 or above including 108 on the 11th. BUSH IAH has recorded 15 straight days at or above 100 degrees. While there is likely to be a slight amount of cooling this week…highs at or above 100 remain likely away from the coast.
Tuesday-Wednesday:
Mid level ridge retreats back some to the west with a trough passing over the Great Lakes. A weak front will sag into Texas Monday and move into SE TX late Monday into Tuesday. With the ridge having moved some, sinking air over SE TX will relax with the ridge not exerting as much influence. Will go with 20% chances of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday with the boundary crossing the area. This will not be drought busting rainfall…but a few lucky locations may see a good downpour…but these will come with a price (see Fire Weather below).
Dry air mass will spread into SE TX behind this weak boundary which looks to stall near or just south of the I-10 corridor. Unfortunately this currently does not look to bring any relief to the coastal counties which continue their oppressive simmer with the near 80 degree dewpoints and high heat index values even at night. North of I-10, dewpoints may fall into the upper 50's and low 60's by Tuesday evening and remain at those levels through Wednesday. Afternoon humidity levels will fall below 30-40% for these areas and while air temperatures will still be in the upper 90's and low 100's heat index values will be closer to those air temperatures instead of 10-15 degrees higher. Will likely be able to cut all the heat advisory and excessive heart warning products out for those areas by Wednesday.
Thursday-Weekend:
Mid level ridge builds back and then northeast of Texas…heat and humidity will be back in place by Thursday and heat index values are likely to push over advisory and/or into warning levels yet again. So whatever brief relief the area experiences on Tuesday and Wednesday will be quickly gone. However, the ridge parks off to the northeast and this does open the door for increasing Gulf moisture to begin to spread toward Texas next weekend and especially into the following week (see Tropics below).
Fire Weather:
Fuel loads remain critically dry, but winds have been slowly coming down each day. Similar conditions to this weekend will be in place on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature our frontal boundary crossing the area with dry air sinking into the region. Afternoon humidity values on Tuesday and Wednesday will be very low north of HWY 105 (less than 30%) and this may reach down toward I-10. Winds will be out of the north or northeast at 5-15mph (not overly strong), but with critically dry fuel loads and a dry and well mixed air mass there will be potential for fire. Additionally, isolated storms near and around the boundary may ignite fires (this could be as early as Monday evening up north and northeast) and then dropping across more of the area Tuesday. Any isolated storms could also produce gusty winds which could quickly fan any fire and result in erratic behavior.
Tropics:
While there is nothing of immediate concern…conditions do look to be changing over the next 7-10 days toward more favorable for tropical cyclone formation. With the position of the mid level ridge next week located to the northeast of Texas, this will open the potential for tropical waves to move into and across the Gulf of Mexico and toward the Texas coast. The GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all show a decent tropical wave axis moving into and across the Gulf and reaching Texas around the 21/22. Some of the operational guidance and their ensemble members show this feature trying to close off a surface low while nearing the NW Gulf coast. Will have to watch this time period for model consistency over the next few days. Generally speaking the upper air pattern looks increasingly favorable for tropical development with a large surge of tropical moisture moving into the Gulf latter this week, rising air over the eastern Pacific moving into the Gulf early next week, and of course the well above average Gulf water temperatures sitting in the upper 80's.
