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Kingwood flooding doesn't pass the smell test

77,049 Views | 567 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by notheranymore
88jrt06
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In reply to JustPanda • 7:10p, 9/13/17
AG
Random Walk said:
If Houston was Game of Thrones:

Was able to verify for you: Houston is not your escapist summer fiction-fantasy. So, no, all that work for nada.
You should adapt something from your fall DVR lineup.
Get back to us after it concludes.
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KW02
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7:45p, 9/13/17
AG
Buzbee is taking these San Jacinto damn cases.
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The Wonderer
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In reply to KW02 • 7:49p, 9/13/17
AG
KW02 said:
Buzbee is taking these San Jacinto damn cases.
Actually just announced that he will not be taking them.
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Ducks4brkfast
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7:49p, 9/13/17
AG
Interesting
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94chem
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9:40p, 9/13/17
Other watersheds were already full. Conroe was releasing at 240% of record rates. Rain was still falling. I get it. I really do. But still, SJRA knew all of this, and none of it points to a crest of 65'. It's like they refused to believe their own info.

FYI, I'm told the buoy topped out at 69' when it hit the bridge. I'm guessing 71' is more accurate.
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FHKChE07
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10:44p, 9/13/17
AG
Those forecasts kept changing along the way to get higher. The one that I linked to earlier was the forecast on Sunday morning. Also, in case you didn't see earlier, even though the flow out of Lake Conroe was "240%" of the record, the flow at 45 was the same as 94. There were lower flows at lake Creek. Also, you keep saying that SJRA makes the forecasts. The NWS is the one who makes the river forecasts. I can't find any of the historical forecasts from that weekend but if it is anything like all the rivers I was watching, it kept going up and up and up until it was at a record height. They had trouble forecasting all the rain because it kept exceeding reasonable rates. Furthermore as one of the posters explained further up, it gets increasing harder to model steam flow the further a river gets in to flood stage because it is no longer in the channel. Flow at that time is anything but laminar.

Furthermore, the buoy didn't hit the bridge. The sensor there is a guided wave radar sensor that doesn't have a float. It will keep reading until it is under water. And it appears to have gotten to about 69-70 feet with out me getting full exports of their data.
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aggiebq03+
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In reply to 94chem • 10:45p, 9/13/17
94chem said:
Other watersheds were already full. Conroe was releasing at 240% of record rates. Rain was still falling. I get it. I really do. But still, SJRA knew all of this, and none of it points to a crest of 65'. It's like they refused to believe their own info.

FYI, I'm told the buoy topped out at 69' when it hit the bridge. I'm guessing 71' is more accurate.

You really don't.
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94chem
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7:10a, 9/14/17
Quote:
Also, you keep saying that SJRA makes the forecasts. The NWS is the one who makes the river forecasts. I can't find any of the historical forecasts from that weekend but if it is anything like all the rivers I was watching, it kept going up and up and up until it was at a record height.
I was tracking the "height plot" at NOAA. The projection didn't cross into record territory until 3 - 4 a.m. on the 29th. The hourly or 3-hour readings were in line with 65' until roughly midnight, and then the curve began to deviate from the projection. The projection itself didn't change for several more hours, but you could tell it needed to. Kind of moot by that point, because for anybody who hadn't gotten out by early evening, it was way too late. I lost 15 trees, many of them very large, so I had another driver to get out sooner (in addition to cancer, disability, and the desire to not be stuck upstairs hearing my stuff floating around). At one point I considered moving a car to higher ground, decided not to, and looked out a few minutes later to see a giant tree on the higher ground.

As for the sensor, 70' is plausible.

BigPuma, sorry for my tone earlier. As for your gender, I don't care. I do wonder why BigPuma quit on the Astros, mysteriously revived his career in Saint Louis just long enough to bloop a single off Scott Feldman and break my heart, and then went to Texas to rub salt in the wound by reverting to his end of Houston performance. Was BigPuma injured in Houston? Did he not not care? Maybe BigPuma can enlighten us. I always liked BigPuma until the last 3 years of his career.


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FHKChE07
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7:20a, 9/14/17
AG
Yeah, like I said, they were having a really hard time forecasting because of how high everything was. Your elevation models get sketchier and sketchier the higher everything gets. And the rainfall rates we were seeing across the entire region were just astonishing and I bet people were hesitant to put all that rain in to models because it would just flood everything. Even the space city weather guys were like, "yeah, that is what the forecast says, but it just can't be. There is no way that we are going to get 30+" of rain across a region in 48 hours. It just isn't possible."
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JustPanda
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In reply to 94chem • 7:49a, 9/14/17
AG
The NOAA water levels are pulled from USGS data that is transmitted every 15 minutes.
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txags92
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7:49a, 9/14/17
AG
Yeah, part of the problem in some areas was the rainfall rate. Their forecast midway through was for something like 20-25 more inches of rain over the next 2-3 days. So the forecasted crests used the assumption of 1/2" per hour for 48 hours or something along those lines. Then one of those bands would settle in over the area, and we would get 10" in 4-5 hours and 20" in about 24 hours. Those rainfall rates would destroy the modeling. So yeah, it is totally normal to see the rise outpace the model forecast when the rainfall conditions are different than those used to build the model. And it may take hours to revise the crest, because the model output shown on the graphs you were looking at is not an automated output that gets updated with each new reading that comes in. It takes time to revise the model inputs, reinitialize it, run it, QC check the output, and then load that output into the display system. And keep in mind the people responsible for doing that modeling on the San Jac watershed are doing it in the middle of the night while simultaneously trying to do the same thing for 5-10 other watersheds also at or approaching record levels.
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94chem
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9:18a, 9/14/17
Actuallly, the rainfall rates on the night of 8/28 - 8/29 and going forward were lower than projected.
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CDUB98
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9:28a, 9/14/17
AG
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sts7049
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9:30a, 9/14/17
AG
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GoneGirl
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4:59p, 9/15/17
AG
I just have to say that although no houses flooded in Summerwood, we did get a T-Rex.



I blame New Caney.
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Jock 07
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7:11p, 9/15/17
AG
Did T-Rexs start eating lawns as well?
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jenn96
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In reply to GoneGirl • 9:52p, 9/15/17
AG
TxElsie said:
I just have to say that although no houses flooded in Summerwood, we did get a T-Rex.



I blame New Caney.

Obiously it's climate change.
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88jrt06
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In reply to GoneGirl • 5:57p, 9/16/17
AG
TxElsie said:
I just have to say that although no houses flooded in Summerwood...

Almost embarrassed at this lame *humble-brag*, given all those who are struggling... but you're the one who trashed the guy who had to come back from halfway across the world to confront the aftermath with his family, then trashed him over daycare decisions in crisis. So, no big surprise. Maybe just shut it down?
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RingOfive
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8:32a, 9/20/17
AG
SJRA responds to the idiotic accusations
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FHKChE07
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8:36a, 9/20/17
AG
I love it! I couldn't believe how irresponsible that public official was when he was spouting off those untruths. It was criminal.
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FHKChE07
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8:39a, 9/20/17
AG
And I think that the SJRA actually copied some of my posts from this thread.
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CDUB98
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8:42a, 9/20/17
AG
Interesting how close the official statement is from all of us morons who don't know anything here on TexAgs.
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Jack Klompus
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8:56a, 9/20/17
AG
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Ferris Wheel Allstar
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In reply to CDUB98 • 9:05a, 9/20/17
AG
CDUB98 said:
Interesting how close the official statement is from all of us morons who don't know anything here on TexAgs.
<-----+1 Moron Here
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Liquid Wrench
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In reply to FHKChE07 • 9:16a, 9/20/17
FHKChE07 said:
I love it! I couldn't believe how irresponsible that public official was when he was spouting off those untruths. It was criminal.
Dave Martin has sounded like a total whackjob and/or imbecile on several occasions lately (maybe he always has and he just didn't get so much airtime).
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schmellba99
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In reply to 88jrt06 • 9:38a, 9/20/17
AG
88jrt06 said:
TxElsie said:
I just have to say that although no houses flooded in Summerwood...

Almost embarrassed at this lame *humble-brag*, given all those who are struggling... but you're the one who trashed the guy who had to come back from halfway across the world to confront the aftermath with his family, then trashed him over daycare decisions in crisis. So, no big surprise. Maybe just shut it down?
Wow. So if you make the statement that your house didn't flood, now you are being mean and hurtful and inconsiderate of somebody who did have water in their home?

Jesus, society is doomed. We are literally going to offend ourselves to extinction.
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In reply to RingOfive • 10:08a, 9/20/17
Jock 07
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In reply to RingOfive • 10:30a, 9/20/17
AG
RingOfive said:
SJRA responds to the idiotic accusations
I just wish the comments section would load for me at work.
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88jrt06
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In reply to schmellba99 • 10:37a, 9/20/17
AG
schmellba99 said:
88jrt06 said:
TxElsie said:
I just have to say that although no houses flooded in Summerwood...

Almost embarrassed at this lame *humble-brag*, given all those who are struggling... but you're the one who trashed the guy who had to come back from halfway across the world to confront the aftermath with his family, then trashed him over daycare decisions in crisis. So, no big surprise. Maybe just shut it down?
Wow. So if you make the statement that your house didn't flood, now you are being mean and hurtful and inconsiderate of somebody who did have water in their home?

Jesus, society is doomed. We are literally going to offend ourselves to extinction.
You failed to read the thread. She also ragged on a poster who flew halfway across the world to get home, etc.,
and was pleased to find daycare, under duress. She then pointed out "there's usually a reason (i.e., they're lousy)
when there's an opening...." That was a cheap shot. THEN, this. Also, "literally"...really?
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In reply to Jock 07 • 10:39a, 9/20/17
BigPuma
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In reply to [removed post] • 10:58a, 9/20/17
AG
i was disappointed.
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GoneGirl
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In reply to schmellba99 • 11:21a, 9/20/17
AG
schmellba99 said:
88jrt06 said:
TxElsie said:
I just have to say that although no houses flooded in Summerwood...

Almost embarrassed at this lame *humble-brag*, given all those who are struggling... but you're the one who trashed the guy who had to come back from halfway across the world to confront the aftermath with his family, then trashed him over daycare decisions in crisis. So, no big surprise. Maybe just shut it down?
Wow. So if you make the statement that your house didn't flood, now you are being mean and hurtful and inconsiderate of somebody who did have water in their home?

Jesus, society is doomed. We are literally going to offend ourselves to extinction.
Meh, I just ignored him. Let him have fun with his outrage.
"If you're in the midst of a midlife crisis, you could buy a convertible, have an affair, or upgrade your cup size. But you'll probably be happiest if you save a dog's life." - Jen Lancaster
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Bondag
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In reply to Jock 07 • 11:33a, 9/20/17
AG
Jock 07 said:
RingOfive said:
SJRA responds to the idiotic accusations
I just wish the comments section would load for me at work.
Quote:
All the problems that they predicted would happen when Houston seized Kingwood against the will of the people - have happened.
Gotta feel bad for the people there that were so much happier and better off there before Houston grabbed them.
Everyone I know cannot wait to get out of Houston - but you are stuck at work until you can retire.
Quote:


we now have a new floodwater mark on many homes. It would be smart to realize this and plan accordingly. How did Exxon's new home fare?



  • High and dry
If that person read the article they specifically mentioned that The Woodlands was primarily off Spring Creek and that the only place in The Woodlands that flooded was of West Fork San Jac.
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jenn96
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12:01p, 9/20/17
AG
Quote:
All the problems that they predicted would happen when Houston seized Kingwood against the will of the people - have happened.
Gotta feel bad for the people there that were so much happier and better off there before Houston grabbed them.
Everyone I know cannot wait to get out of Houston - but you are stuck at work until you can retire.
I cant imagine being that delusional. Does this mentat believe that the existence of Kingwood City limits would have magically repelled the floodwaters?
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CDUB98
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12:01p, 9/20/17
AG
Quote:
All the problems that they predicted would happen when Houston seized Kingwood against the will of the people - have happened.
Gotta feel bad for the people there that were so much happier and better off there before Houston grabbed them.
Everyone I know cannot wait to get out of Houston - but you are stuck at work until you can retire.


As if Houston seizing Kingwood had anything at all to do with the flooding.
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