I think Rolex will aggressively manage supply if they see demand falling.BBRex said:TarponChaser said:
I don't pay close attention or dive into things like some of y'all but it sounds like Hodinkee might be struggling.
WSJ: They Built a $100 Million Watch Empire. Then the Market Tanked.
That's the concern with trends like this. They eventually crest and fall. You see the same thing with craft beer, scotch and bourbon. And it's what makes the Rolex expansion and price increases a risk. They don't want to lose money in the short term, but when you work to expand to meet demand, the boom might be over just as the expansion work you paid for finally comes online.
They're under no pressure from shareholders to try to max out short term profits so I think they'll prioritize defending the brand over short term sales.
The other thing for us to consider for us as American buyer is what the dollar will do over the next few years. If Trump follows the Nixon playbook of devaluing the dollar (to address trade deficits and increase American exports) then imported luxury goods will definitely appreciate in dollar terms.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/15/devaluing-dollar-trump-trade-war-00152009