***Official Final 100 Days to 2026 Midterms Countdown/Discussion Thread***

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Rossticus
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7:17p, 10/4/26
Rs are surging, per Trump. And the media is suppressing it. Even Fox News is now in the bag for the libs. The fix is in.

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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:47p, 10/4/26
AG
What motivates folks is not "come out here and let's dunk on the dems… I know we are up by 10 points and its all in the bag, but please make sure to vote anyways" it is the "we need everyone of our or the dirty rotten Hate Americans will win".

And he's long been slamming Fox. He likes some of them, others not as much.
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Rossticus
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In reply to flown-the-coop • 7:54p, 10/4/26
The list of Fox correspondents he likes does seem to be shrinking pretty steadily, though. Which I think ties directly to the marching orders from the top of the network.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:11p, 10/4/26
AG
Agree.
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to DeschutesAg • 8:14p, 10/4/26
AG
DeschutesAg said:
Another thing that has GOP campaign professionals concerned is:

-- There are almost zero good objective reasons for Independent voters or the Reagan - Bush - McCain moderate Republican faction of voters in the GOP base to vote for Rs who will go to Congress and continue bowing to Trump and allowing this Administration's madness to continue unchecked.

-- Conversely, there are a lot of very good, objective reasons to vote for Dems to gain control of both sides of Congress. The biggest one is it will create D.C. gridlock and put some brakes on this President and his Administration's rampant corruption and their reckless destruction of our economy.

Please, name them.

Should be a lay-up, what is the elevator pitch for Democrats to regain both sides of Congress?
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nortex97
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4:50a, 10/5/26
AG
Democrat mail voter slump continues to grow/manifest in the data.

They rely on the young and dumb voters, which is always an ephemeral wish-casting exercise.
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Kansas Kid
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:35a, 10/5/26
Anyone who thinks this is over and Rs will win big can make a fortune on prediction markets. Dems controlling the House and Senate sits at 67% today. Even Kansas is now viewed at risk for its Senate seat. A&M won a football national championship more recently than that happened
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nortex97
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In reply to Kansas Kid • 7:49a, 10/5/26
AG
Kansas Kid said:
Anyone who thinks this is over and Rs will win big can make a fortune on prediction markets. Dems controlling the House and Senate sits at 67% today. Even Kansas is now viewed at risk for its Senate seat. A&M won a football national championship more recently than that happened

It's really not meaningful though. Kalshi gamblers also were heavy on Lula winning the first round in Brazil...until results came in.

And the democrat donor strike is coming home to roost in turnout/GOTV efforts they rely on, manifesting partially in the drop in mail in ballot requests I cited up above.
Quote:
The Democrats certainly aren't taking public polls as seriously as their lack of cash. They know that happy talk from publications such as the New Republic is worthless. The Washington Postreports that Ben Wikler, a former chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, is worried about the paucity of money to pay for ads: "Campaigns are running fewer ads. They're splitting 30-second ads into 15-second chunks. They're having to choose between defining themselves and defining their opposition," said Wikler, detailing the difficult choices candidates must make. "At this point you're just deciding where you want to lose by less."

Meanwhile, Republican money continues to pour into competitive Senate and House contests, Politico reports:
Quote:
Republicans are poised to massively outspend Democrats on advertising: Since the start of August, they have placed $820 million in ad buys across the Senate map, compared to $556 million from Democrats, including future bookings through Election Day. That includes outspending Democrats in all but one of the nine most expensive Senate races … On the House side, the GOP has spent or booked $454 million across the map to $381 million for Democrats. That disparity grows even larger in the districts that were within 10 points at the presidential level in 2024.

The impact of the huge Republican cash advantage will go beyond advertising. The Democrats can usually rely on well-funded voter turnout operations that often make the difference in close elections. This year, however, the disgruntled Democrat donors have left these organizations in the lurch just as early voting gets started. AP reports, "America Votes, a coordinating hub for more than 400 progressive groups, has fallen 'well below' the level of funding it had during the 2022 midterms." Consequently, organizations focused on engaging and mobilizing low-propensity voters have been forced to scale back staffing. This comes at a time when the Republicans have the funds and technology to get out its low-propensity voters.

None of this is meant to suggest that the Republicans don't have real challenges to overcome in the next 29 days. Regardless of how accurate polls are, it will not be easy to neutralize the midterm curse that almost always bedevils the party in power. Nonetheless, the conventional wisdom to which the commentariat clings includes a lot of lazy thinking not to mention outright hostility toward President Trump and his supporters. Moreover, this will be the first election in many years during which the Republicans have a clear cash advantage. This factor, combined with Trump's uncanny ability to defy the predictions of the self-satisfied pundits, may portend a better November for the GOP than the "experts" forecast.

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5Amp
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8:04a, 10/5/26
The democrats media think a blue wave is coming.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to 5Amp • 8:14a, 10/5/26
AG
No, they are campaigning for a blue wave. No different than ESPN championing certain winners and losers on the gridiron each week.

They gin up some teams, sack on others, spin stories and the like to chart a narrative to drive eyes to their screens and socials.

The political game is no different these days. It's about making money not informing the public.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to 5Amp • 8:23a, 10/5/26
Ive seen cnn hedging a bit on that belief
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Kansas Kid
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:30a, 10/5/26
If you believe what you are saying, then you can make a fortune trading on these sites. They aren't perfect but even in Brazil they started moving against Lula in August long before the election.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Kansas Kid • 9:17a, 10/5/26
AG
Kansas Kid said:
If you believe what you are saying, then you can make a fortune trading on these sites. They aren't perfect but even in Brazil they started moving against Lula in August long before the election.

List your best bets and I'll put some money on the Rs. Proceeds to charity.
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agsalaska
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10:38a, 10/5/26
nortex97
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In reply to Kansas Kid • 10:48a, 10/5/26
AG
Kansas Kid said:
If you believe what you are saying, then you can make a fortune trading on these sites. They aren't perfect but even in Brazil they started moving against Lula in August long before the election.

I'm sorry but I don't gamble on politics, nor sports ('only' the stock market). Best of luck to you in your plays, in any case.

Closing with 'raising taxes' to improve the affordability/economy alike is a bold play for team DSA-Dems.

I like it, hopefully they run with that at full volume. Because tax the rich works every time:
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AxelFoley85
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12:07p, 10/5/26
These betting markets are so interesting to me. I can't for the life of me understand how the dims would roll like this.

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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to AxelFoley85 • 12:12p, 10/5/26
AG
AxelFoley85 said:
These betting markets are so interesting to me. I can't for the life of me understand how the dims would roll like this.


People are generally unhappy with the state of the country, a historically unpopular and divisive president, Democrat voters are motivated, non-MAGA Republicans are not motivated, and midterm historical trends favor the party not in power. All add up likely a very strong night for Democrats.
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DeschutesAg
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12:32p, 10/5/26
https://thehill.com/homenews/editors-call/6129476-gop-midterms-alarm-bells-polling-2026-discussion/

Quote:
Republicans are growing increasingly nervous about their midterm prospects as a series of new polls suggest Democratic chances of winning the House and Senate majorities are growing.

The data is especially alarming when it comes to the Senate, as Democratic candidates in Alaska, Texas, North Carolina and Ohio continue to show strength.
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fc2112
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In reply to DeschutesAg • 12:37p, 10/5/26
Quote:
Republicans are growing increasingly nervous about their midterm prospects as a series of new polls suggest Democratic chances of winning the House and Senate majorities are growing.

The data is especially alarming when it comes to the Senate, as Democratic candidates in Alaska, Texas, North Carolina and Ohio continue to show strength.


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YouBet
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1:46p, 10/5/26
AG
Random and anecdotal and I'm only posting because it's surprising....Debra Messing, who has been a far left wing nutjob akin to Mark Ruffalo, is supporting the Republican for Governor of NY. She apparently also is not a fan of Mamdani.

Back to your regular programming...just thought that was interesting. I'm thinking she's Jewish and finally woke up to the threat of the Democrat Party, but I'm not sure on that.
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TAMU1990
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In reply to AxelFoley85 • 3:24p, 10/5/26
AG
AxelFoley85 said:
These betting markets are so interesting to me. I can't for the life of me understand how the dims would roll like this.


Also seen article about betting sites like this are being taken advantage of in red state. Run up blue bets then the people rigging it come in with large bets on the red.
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DeschutesAg
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In reply to YouBet • 3:56p, 10/5/26
That is an interesting development. Yet it is also true there are many notable Rs and Independents who have woken up to the serious threat Trump and the corrupt Trump Rs and the GOP far-right pose to our country, our Constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the post-WW2 alliance of democracies.

The threats to democracy from the far-right and far-left presents a bit of a conundrum for centrists and moderate voters. But with two more years of Trump ruling the Executive branch, it is clear to most Americans that Dem control of the House and Senate will put the brakes on most of Trump's lunatic policies and decrease how much additional damage he and his faction can do.
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TRM
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4:12p, 10/5/26
AG
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TRM
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4:25p, 10/5/26
AG
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Silent For Too Long
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In reply to DeschutesAg • 4:29p, 10/5/26
DeschutesAg said:
That is an interesting development. Yet it is also true there are many notable Rs and Independents who have woken up to the serious threat Trump and the corrupt Trump Rs and the GOP far-right pose to our country, our Constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the post-WW2 alliance of democracies.

The threats to democracy from the far-right and far-left presents a bit of a conundrum for centrists and moderate voters. But with two more years of Trump ruling the Executive branch, it is clear to most Americans that Dem control of the House and Senate will put the brakes on most of Trump's lunatic policies and decrease how much additional damage he and his faction can do.


Oh brother.
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SA68AG
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4:49p, 10/5/26
AG
Trump has asked voters to cast their votes as if he were on the ballot.

Unfortunately, he's going to get what he asked for.
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Grapesoda2525
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In reply to TRM • 6:12p, 10/5/26
TRM said:


I hope this scares the living hell out of Chuck Grassley. Regardless of your political affiliation, it's freaking ridiculous that he's still in office at 93 years old.
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YouBet
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In reply to Grapesoda2525 • 6:20p, 10/5/26
AG
Grapesoda2525 said:
TRM said:


I hope this scares the living hell out of Chuck Grassley. Regardless of your political affiliation, it's freaking ridiculous that he's still in office at 93 years old.


Agreed it's ridiculous.
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nortex97
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In reply to TRM • 7:38a, 10/6/26
AG
This is almost certainly related to Hinson's authoring of the Save Our Bacon Act. American Meat Producers opposed that vociferously (and it was eventually dropped from the Farm Bill) but this is the revenge/consequence of that authorship Typical.

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AxelFoley85
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In reply to TAMU1990 • 7:47a, 10/6/26
I read those but it still doesn't make sense. I put some down on Paxton here in Texas. If that is in fact the case, I'm going to take advantage of
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AxelFoley85
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7:51a, 10/6/26
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TAMU1990
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In reply to AxelFoley85 • 8:46a, 10/6/26
AG
AxelFoley85 said:
I read those but it still doesn't make sense. I put some down on Paxton here in Texas. If that is in fact the case, I'm going to take advantage of


I never bet on anything, much less political polls. But there have been Twitter posts about how poor the polls have been recently and groups coming in to bet on the underdog and winning big. As much fraud there is in politics, and what revealed by the Trump administration throughout the government, it doesn't surprise me that there's fraud in the polls - especially where there's money on betting sites regarding polling.
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Windy City Ag
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In reply to AxelFoley85 • 9:02a, 10/6/26
AG
I don't think D +11 should be alarming though. It fits a fairly long historical pattern of minority party appeal shifting dur to disgust with the incumbent.

The blended generic vote on RCP is Dem +8.2

It was Dems 8.4 at this same time during Trump's first admin when the Dems retook the house.

It was the GOP 5.6 and 6.8 during the midterms of the Obama presidencies and the GOP made gains in both cycles.

The only difference to me is that Trump is plumbing historic lows on almost everything right now but I doubt that is enough to overcome base party affiliation.



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TRM
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9:35a, 10/6/26
AG
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to TRM • 9:39a, 10/6/26
AG
Chuck Todd says it's over for Texas. Believe all Chuck Todd's.

Those polls are ******ed btw. Dems have no message other than "stop Trump".

No one other than the unhinged left and CMs is motivated still by Orange Man Bad only. You eventually have to have ideas.

But if you trust the polls, more power to you. Go knock on them doors for LowT and GOTV.
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