Morning Consult trying to save their reputation

AggieUSMC said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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What the heck?

Final @MorningConsult poll:

Wisconsin: Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Tied
Arizona: Tied
Florida: Trump +5
Georgia: Trump +2
Michigan: Harris +1
North Carolina: Trump +2
Ohio: Trump +9
Texas: Trump +7 https://t.co/RtRxMhhuiF

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2024

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Morning Consult trying to save their reputation

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Not doing that great of a job…. Still has Fla at +5 when it looks like it is easily going to be in double digits

AggieUSMC said:

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Dan Scott said:

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Iowa enacted their 6 week abortion ban a few months ago. Maybe that has created a bunch of young woman voters

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The polls would have reflected that a few months ago then.

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RCP only has a Des Moines Register poll from September and yesterday for Iowa.

Emerson released a poll from Iowa yesterday with Trump up 10

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/

Philip J Fry said:

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Emerson released a poll from Iowa yesterday with Trump up 10

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/

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I'm not sure how mathematically sound this statement is, but if you apply the 13 point shift of recall vote to actual 2020 vote to the Selzer poll, you get Trump +10.

Edit: To finish my argument, Emerson released Trump +10, and actually provided their cross tabs.

#NEW FINAL NATIONAL poll

🔴 Trump: 47% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟡 RFK: 1%
🟢 Stein: 1%
🟣 Oliver: 1%

NBC News | 10/30-11/2 | N=1,000RV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

It's registered and not just likely voters, but I guess at this point you're not going to likely answer a poll if you're not likely to vote, too.

Prosperdick said:

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aggiehawg said:

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#NEW FINAL NATIONAL poll

🔴 Trump: 47% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟡 RFK: 1%
🟢 Stein: 1%
🟣 Oliver: 1%

NBC News | 10/30-11/2 | N=1,000RV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

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If Trump is up 1 point nationally it will be a landslide. Don't forget Hillary was up 5 points in 2016 and Biden up 9 points in 2020.

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The two questions are:

1) How much will the left cheat
2) Did pollsters finally fix their formula after underestimating him in 2016 and 2020

aggiehawg said:

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SECond2noneAgs said:

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I trust the money guys, they don't see red or blue, only green

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Wall Street-smart money.

Betting sites-dumb money.

And I would add one more thing here, since this is the polling thread. Wall Street players hire their own private polls but don't publicize them. For their internal use only. And they pay good money for accuracy.

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Similar to the campaigns themselves then with their internal polls. That's why the Selzer poll screams electioneering as neither candidate has made Iowa a priority from a rally standpoint.

Four years my doubts about a Trump victory were well founded. Not this time. Trump romps.

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Similar to the campaigns themselves then with their internal polls. That's why the Selzer poll screams electioneering as neither candidate has made Iowa a priority from a rally standpoint.

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The term internal polls applies to PACs, individuals and businesses such as the firms on Wall Street, not just the campaigns. There's a lot more internal polling than is commonly known.

📊 Final National Poll by Yahoo/YouGov among likely voters

2-WAY
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟥 Trump: 48%

FULL FIELD
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟩 Stein: 1%
⬜ Other: 1%

#4 (3.0/3.0) | 10/29-31 | Likely voters pic.twitter.com/h5V0xEC27l

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 3, 2024

[Note to the board and not this specific poster: The Iowa Selzer poll has run its course on this thread. If you want to explore that in depth, start a new thread. We're not going to let this one be hijacked by it. Also, accusations of voter fraud, Trump's trials, etc. are also derails. Keep it to polls and the upcoming election. Those who insist on derailing will earn timeouts. Thanks -- Staff]

#New General election Tracking poll

🔴 Trump 49% (+1)
🔵 Harris 48%

Tipp #A+ - LV - 11/2 pic.twitter.com/3GX8j6FoIo

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024

NEW @SienaResearch / @nytimes poll:

NORTH CAROLINA
Harris 48% (+3)
Trump 45%
Stein 0%
West 0%
Oliver 0%
.
NEVADA
Harris 48% (+2)
Trump 46%
Oliver 2%
.
WISCONSIN
Harris 48% (+3)
Trump 45%
Stein 1%
West 0%
Oliver 0%
.
GEORGIA
Harris 46%
Trump 46%
Oliver 2%
Stein 0%
West 0%
.… https://t.co/voRYyx3mVF

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2024

NEW @SienaResearch / @nytimes Senate poll:

NEVADA
Jacky Rosen (D-inc) 52% (+9)
Sam Brown (R) 43%
.
ARIZONA
Ruben Gallego (D) 50% (+5)
Kari Lake (R) 45%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Bob Casey (D-Inc) 50% (+5)
David McCormick (R) 45%
.
WISCONSIN
Tammy Baldwin (D-Inc) 50% (+4)
Eric Hovde (R) 46%… https://t.co/voRYyx3ULd

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2024

National @YouGovAmerica / @YahooNews poll, Among likely voters:

Harris 49% (+1)
Trump 48%
.
Harris 48%
Trump 48%
Stein 1%
West 0%
Oliver 0%

1,074 LV, 10/29-31https://t.co/XzWXuCqSU1 https://t.co/RD18fYxMHr

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2024

PENNSYLVANIA
Muhlenberg College poll:

Harris 49% (+2)
Trump 47%@muhlenberg_poll, 460 LV, 10/27-30https://t.co/1EI5ioARRV

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2024

National @ActiVoteUS poll:

Trump 51% (+1)
Harris 50%

1,000 LV, 10/27-11/2https://t.co/xrRPVGn46d pic.twitter.com/I0jtbUcBb8

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2024

Yeah, I saw that NYT poll this morning.

That does not look good for Trump at all.

The accompanying article claims that late voters are breaking for Harris.

OldArmy71 said:

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Yeah, I saw that NYT poll this morning.

That does not look good for Trump at all.

The accompanying article claims that late voters are breaking for Harris.

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They also note white democrats were 16% more likely to respond than white Republicans and because of that they may underestimate Trump support again

I'm not buying that Harris +3 in North Carolina

Shouldntt buy any of NYT / Siena.

TexAgsSean said:

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Prosperdick said:

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aggiehawg said:

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#NEW FINAL NATIONAL poll

🔴 Trump: 47% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟡 RFK: 1%
🟢 Stein: 1%
🟣 Oliver: 1%

NBC News | 10/30-11/2 | N=1,000RV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

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If Trump is up 1 point nationally it will be a landslide. Don't forget Hillary was up 5 points in 2016 and Biden up 9 points in 2020.

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The two questions are:

1) How much will the left cheat
2) Did pollsters finally fix their formula after underestimating him in 2016 and 2020

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I won't address point 1 because mods made it clear not to discuss it, only polls.

As to point 2, I don't think pollsters fixed their formula because they're still over sampling Democrats and don't want to pay extra money to reach the low propensity voters.

What's interesting is the post about the Wall Street political affairs group that DOES pay extra for their internal polling which means they're likely better at reaching the low propensity voter who is more favorable to Trump. They also believe Trump wins but they didn't indicate if it was a landslide or not but the senate numbers tell me it's closer to a landslide than a close victory (if their internal polling is accurate).

Of course point 1 is a factor but can be discussed on any number of other threads.

aggiehawg said:

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Here are today’s campaign stops…

Notice anything? pic.twitter.com/nwejoWoGCH

— kevin smith (@kevin_smith45) November 3, 2024

No one in Iowa. But Vance in NH?

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Would have been hilarious if Trump had a stop in New Jersey but I doubt their internal polling suggests he has a reasonable chance in that state but the fact that it's a discussion point is VERY telling.

Does anyone remember discussing Jersey in 2016 or even 2020?

Confess I missed this nugget.

No, it makes perfect sense. https://t.co/ZMpoYra4qh

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 3, 2024

aggiehawg said:

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Confess I missed this nugget.

No, it makes perfect sense. https://t.co/ZMpoYra4qh

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 3, 2024

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That is misleading because all 3 of her stops on Monday are in PA.

How accurate has Siena/NYT been? They are showing essentially a clean sweep for Kamala which I find hard to believe

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That is misleading because all 3 of her stops on Monday are in PA.

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I think they canceled Biden from doing another PA rally but she only has one event all day today. She had time to fit in an appearance in PA today, too.