Muh Polls

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AggieUSMC
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:11a, 11/3/24
AG

Morning Consult trying to save their reputation
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mslags97
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In reply to AggieUSMC • 7:37a, 11/3/24
AG
AggieUSMC said:
Waffledynamics said:
What the heck?

Morning Consult trying to save their reputation


Not doing that great of a job…. Still has Fla at +5 when it looks like it is easily going to be in double digits
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to AggieUSMC • 8:41a, 11/3/24
AG
AggieUSMC said:
Dan Scott said:
Iowa enacted their 6 week abortion ban a few months ago. Maybe that has created a bunch of young woman voters
The polls would have reflected that a few months ago then.


RCP only has a Des Moines Register poll from September and yesterday for Iowa.
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Philip J Fry
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8:46a, 11/3/24
AG
Emerson released a poll from Iowa yesterday with Trump up 10

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 8:49a, 11/3/24
AG
Philip J Fry said:
Emerson released a poll from Iowa yesterday with Trump up 10

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/

I'm not sure how mathematically sound this statement is, but if you apply the 13 point shift of recall vote to actual 2020 vote to the Selzer poll, you get Trump +10.

Edit: To finish my argument, Emerson released Trump +10, and actually provided their cross tabs.
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aggiehawg
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8:56a, 11/3/24
AG
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Prosperdick
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In reply to aggiehawg • 9:00a, 11/3/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
If Trump is up 1 point nationally it will be a landslide. Don't forget Hillary was up 5 points in 2016 and Biden up 9 points in 2020.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to aggiehawg • 9:26a, 11/3/24
AG
It's registered and not just likely voters, but I guess at this point you're not going to likely answer a poll if you're not likely to vote, too.
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aggiehawg
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9:48a, 11/3/24
AG
Not a poll per se but if one knows who Charlie Gasparino is, it is very telling what Wall Street is seeing and planning for.

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TexAgsSean
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In reply to Prosperdick • 10:12a, 11/3/24
AG
Prosperdick said:
aggiehawg said:
If Trump is up 1 point nationally it will be a landslide. Don't forget Hillary was up 5 points in 2016 and Biden up 9 points in 2020.


The two questions are:

1) How much will the left cheat
2) Did pollsters finally fix their formula after underestimating him in 2016 and 2020
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SECond2noneAgs
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:14a, 11/3/24
AG
I trust the money guys, they don't see red or blue, only green
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aggiehawg
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In reply to SECond2noneAgs • 10:20a, 11/3/24
AG
SECond2noneAgs said:
I trust the money guys, they don't see red or blue, only green
Wall Street-smart money.

Betting sites-dumb money.

And I would add one more thing here, since this is the polling thread. Wall Street players hire their own private polls but don't publicize them. For their internal use only. And they pay good money for accuracy.
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4stringAg
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:33a, 11/3/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
SECond2noneAgs said:
I trust the money guys, they don't see red or blue, only green
Wall Street-smart money.

Betting sites-dumb money.

And I would add one more thing here, since this is the polling thread. Wall Street players hire their own private polls but don't publicize them. For their internal use only. And they pay good money for accuracy.


Similar to the campaigns themselves then with their internal polls. That's why the Selzer poll screams electioneering as neither candidate has made Iowa a priority from a rally standpoint.
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B-1 83
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10:35a, 11/3/24
AG
Four years my doubts about a Trump victory were well founded. Not this time. Trump romps.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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aggiehawg
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In reply to 4stringAg • 10:38a, 11/3/24
AG
Quote:
Similar to the campaigns themselves then with their internal polls. That's why the Selzer poll screams electioneering as neither candidate has made Iowa a priority from a rally standpoint.
The term internal polls applies to PACs, individuals and businesses such as the firms on Wall Street, not just the campaigns. There's a lot more internal polling than is commonly known.
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Quo Vadis?
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10:59a, 11/3/24
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FriendlyAg
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11:15a, 11/3/24
[Note to the board and not this specific poster: The Iowa Selzer poll has run its course on this thread. If you want to explore that in depth, start a new thread. We're not going to let this one be hijacked by it. Also, accusations of voter fraud, Trump's trials, etc. are also derails. Keep it to polls and the upcoming election. Those who insist on derailing will earn timeouts. Thanks -- Staff]
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Captn_Ag05
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11:22a, 11/3/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:23a, 11/3/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:23a, 11/3/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:24a, 11/3/24
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Captn_Ag05
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11:24a, 11/3/24
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Captn_Ag05
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11:25a, 11/3/24
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OldArmy71
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11:34a, 11/3/24
AG
Yeah, I saw that NYT poll this morning.

That does not look good for Trump at all.

The accompanying article claims that late voters are breaking for Harris.
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aggiehawg
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11:44a, 11/3/24
AG


No one in Iowa. But Vance in NH?
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tallgrant
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In reply to OldArmy71 • 11:45a, 11/3/24
OldArmy71 said:
Yeah, I saw that NYT poll this morning.

That does not look good for Trump at all.

The accompanying article claims that late voters are breaking for Harris.


They also note white democrats were 16% more likely to respond than white Republicans and because of that they may underestimate Trump support again
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iloveonescoregames
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12:09p, 11/3/24
I'm not buying that Harris +3 in North Carolina
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FTAG 2000
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12:11p, 11/3/24
AG
Shouldntt buy any of NYT / Siena.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:16p, 11/3/24
AG
The gender pay gap in picture form
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Prosperdick
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In reply to TexAgsSean • 12:45p, 11/3/24
AG
TexAgsSean said:
Prosperdick said:
aggiehawg said:
If Trump is up 1 point nationally it will be a landslide. Don't forget Hillary was up 5 points in 2016 and Biden up 9 points in 2020.


The two questions are:

1) How much will the left cheat
2) Did pollsters finally fix their formula after underestimating him in 2016 and 2020
I won't address point 1 because mods made it clear not to discuss it, only polls.

As to point 2, I don't think pollsters fixed their formula because they're still over sampling Democrats and don't want to pay extra money to reach the low propensity voters.

What's interesting is the post about the Wall Street political affairs group that DOES pay extra for their internal polling which means they're likely better at reaching the low propensity voter who is more favorable to Trump. They also believe Trump wins but they didn't indicate if it was a landslide or not but the senate numbers tell me it's closer to a landslide than a close victory (if their internal polling is accurate).

Of course point 1 is a factor but can be discussed on any number of other threads.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:47p, 11/3/24
AG
aggiehawg said:


No one in Iowa. But Vance in NH?
Would have been hilarious if Trump had a stop in New Jersey but I doubt their internal polling suggests he has a reasonable chance in that state but the fact that it's a discussion point is VERY telling.

Does anyone remember discussing Jersey in 2016 or even 2020?
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aggiehawg
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12:50p, 11/3/24
AG
Confess I missed this nugget.

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SwigAg11
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:52p, 11/3/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Confess I missed this nugget.


That is misleading because all 3 of her stops on Monday are in PA.
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4stringAg
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1:33p, 11/3/24
AG
How accurate has Siena/NYT been? They are showing essentially a clean sweep for Kamala which I find hard to believe
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aggiehawg
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 1:37p, 11/3/24
AG
Quote:
That is misleading because all 3 of her stops on Monday are in PA.
I think they canceled Biden from doing another PA rally but she only has one event all day today. She had time to fit in an appearance in PA today, too.
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