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Buying a new electric vehicle is like buying a wedding ring. It's expensive upfront, but not worth much when the relationship ends. That is suddenly becoming a huge problem for E.V. manufacturers, because without a secondary market for E.V.s, the cost of ownership is much higher, providing yet another reason for the car-buying public to reject "the electric vehicle transition."

The market for used E.V.s is crashing as consumers have quickly come to realize that electric vehicles have a short lifespan compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and hybrids. The lithium-ion batteries in E.V.s have a useful life of about 10 years, and with the cost of a replacement battery likely to be in the five-figures, battery-replacement-time for an E.V. pretty much means that it's time for the car to be scrapped. E.V. manufacturers generally provide an 8-year battery warranty, but beyond that, battery failure effectively means the vehicle is a total loss, albeit one without insurance to cover the loss. Therefore, owning an E.V. pushing its 10th birthday means you own a car that could suddenly become worthless.

With E.V.s rapidly depreciating to a value of $0 as their batteries age, consumers naturally don't want to find themselves in the position of trying to sell a 6 or 7-year old E.V. that has little value due to its useful life being almost over. This, of course, compels them not to want to purchase a 3 or 4-year old E.V., which in turn makes it difficult for the original owner to sell his E.V. Ultimately, this depresses the entire market for new E.V.s since there isn't a solid secondary market. Beyond the imminent battery death, there is also battery degradation, which makes the already limited range of an E.V. even more limited after a few years, which also repels potential buyers. Degradation is so bad that Tesla only warranties 70 percent charge capacity on its 8-year battery warranty....

How bad is the collapse of used E.V. prices? From late 2022 to late 2023, the average price of a used E.V. declined by 33 percent. Overall used car prices fell by 5.1 percent over the same period, a number that would have been smaller had it not included used E.V.s along with ICE vehicles. From a recent article in The Autopian: "Black Book predicts the average 3-year-old vehicle in October 2023 held 66 percent of its original value…" By contrast, "The average 3-year-old EV, however, only held 49 percent of its original value in October 2023."

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https://the-pipeline.org/the-collapsing-market-for-used-evs/

In before "But the batteries are guaranteed for 8 years."

1. Tesla's don't have that issue.
2. People should be smarter and know those things before they buy an EV



Did I do it right?

EV owner in year 7 of ownership

Logos Stick said:

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2. People should be smarter and know those things before they buy an EV

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California definitely knew these things before forcing complete compliance by banning sales of new ICE vehicles soon.

sanangelo said:

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Here are 8-year-old Teslas. Still holding value.

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Is there a way to see how many have actually sold?

DallasAg 94 said:

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You can't sell a used computer.

EVs were touted as computers on wheels.

Why would anyone think the used EV would retain value?!

I have a stack of used laptops that have no value.

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My phone battery might be decent for 4-5 years, then goes off a cliff. At that point it is garbage and replaced. How anyone who has ever owned a cell phone doesn't equate that with electric car batteries makes no damn sense.

sanangelo said:

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And... 10-year-old Teslas. Pricey.

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Are model S over 100k new?

I spent most of today chasing electrical gremlins in my son's 96 F150. It has 200K. Cleaned the battery cables and a bunch of grounds. Has an aftermarket alarm w/ starter interruption. Turns out the ground on the alarm needed grounding.

Thing is almost 30 y/o and back on the road.

Try to tell me that buying an EV is better for the environment than keeping this old girl on the road...

sanangelo said:

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And... 10-year-old Teslas. Pricey.

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Buy with confidence, then

The Tesla Model S first came out in 2012 so we are just now at the first end of life cycle for these cars. These asking prices are meaningless unless they sell.

Considering what we know about these batteries and the fact that we really don't have any data at scale to know what will happen then would have to be a moron to buy one of these cars.

DrEvazanPhD said:

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sanangelo said:

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And... 10-year-old Teslas. Pricey.

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Are model S over 100k new?

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The price of the 2024 Tesla Model S starts at $76,630 and goes up to $91,630


The price of the 2024 Chevrolet Corvette starts at $69,995 and goes up to $86,645 depending on the trim and options

On KBB, 2016 Chevy Corvettes are $44-48K
On KBB, 2014 Chevy Corvettes are $38K

So a new Tesla is about the same price as a Corvette, but worth half as much 8-10 years later.

Also, based on what is posted by SanAngelo, it looks like 2014 and 2016 Teslas are roughly the same price which tells me the dealerships are most likely trying to recover trade-in value.

Many dealerships cannot lower the price below a certain number or percentage, so what they do is give you more for your trade in. No reason for two the same car two years apart to be roughly the same unless there is a floor.

Also, just cause they are asking $20K for a 10 year old vehicle, doesn't mean it sold for that. There still is a certain 'cool factor' in owning a Tesla, so that will artificially inflate the value as well.

sanangelo said:

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Used Teslas seem pretty pricey on Car Gurus.

I thought I could get a deal when I read this thread.

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That 2019 Model 3 in the top right retailed for $56190 in 2019...

To further that example, in 2019 a Dodge Hellcat was $60695 and now retails for around $53000...

I am going to start looking at EVs when they run on four AA batteries.

GAC06 said:

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What is the failure rate of batteries? Merely stating the length of the warranty and the possible cost of replacement doesn't mean much. ICE vehicles have a warranty that expires and engines and transmissions are also expensive. It doesn't mean all these vehicles explode when they're out of warranty.

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No...but, the likelihood of failure goes way up. Batteries DO have a lifetime.

It's one thing to buy an ICE car that is 10 years old with 150K miles on it and know you'll have to replace the alternator and may the power steering pump in a few years. That will cost 5% of what you're paying for the vehicle.

It's another to know you'll probably have to replace the battery that will cost 75% of the vehicle.

sanangelo said:

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DrEvazanPhD said:

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sanangelo said:

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Here are 8-year-old Teslas. Still holding value.

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Is there a way to see how many have actually sold?

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I just looked on Car Gurus to see if the advertising aligns with the contents of the OP's quoted article. Apparently not. I have no idea what is selling or not selling. Hertz just dumped all of their EVs so I guess we can keep count of the EVs on sale at the Hertz used car website.

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Those prices are 25-30% of what they cost new. That's not what I consider holding value. For comparison, my 2015 ICE SUV is valued at about 60% of what it cost me new.

Looks like your searches proved the article to be accurate more than anything. Buy one of those, plus another $20k for a battery replacement, and it seems to compare pretty well.

GAC06 said:

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What is the failure rate of batteries? Merely stating the length of the warranty and the possible cost of replacement doesn't mean much. ICE vehicles have a warranty that expires and engines and transmissions are also expensive. It doesn't mean all these vehicles explode when they're out of warranty.

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Actually it does. I've owned a lot of vehicles in my life and I've never had to repair anything north of maybe $3500. $10k+ for a new battery system? And the battery will fail at some point
F that. Deal killer

Ag with kids said:

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GAC06 said:

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What is the failure rate of batteries? Merely stating the length of the warranty and the possible cost of replacement doesn't mean much. ICE vehicles have a warranty that expires and engines and transmissions are also expensive. It doesn't mean all these vehicles explode when they're out of warranty.

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No...but, the likelihood of failure goes way up. Batteries DO have a lifetime.

It's one thing to buy an ICE car that is 10 years old with 150K miles on it and know you'll have to replace the alternator and may the power steering pump in a few years. That will cost 5% of what you're paying for the vehicle.

It's another to know you'll probably have to replace the battery that will cost 75% of the vehicle.

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Rebuilt the transmission on my 2010 Altima. Cost $3499, I now have 250k miles on my car. If I can get another 100k out of it, I will be happy.

The EV market will crash... not a matter of "if," but when.

There's no appetite for spending $25k to replace batteries on used vehicles.

Quote:

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With E.V.s rapidly depreciating to a value of $0 as their batteries age, consumers naturally don't want to find themselves in the position of trying to sell a 6 or 7-year old E.V. that has little value due to its useful life being almost over. This, of course, compels them not to want to purchase a 3 or 4-year old E.V., which in turn makes it difficult for the original owner to sell his E.V.

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This really is the key here.

The secondary market is what keeps the new vehicle market viable.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

Good read thanks for sharing

I'll stick with my 3/4t diesel

Bat signal must be powered by a dead EV battery today.

I predict some dude will start buying these things for 25 cents on the dollar, and hold them until the Chinese come out with the Harbor Freight version of batteries for $6-7000 and then roll them for a nice profit. Government safety standards will go out the window since 'green!'. They'll be fine for a couple years and then start burning down houses, etc.

If a buck can be made…..just wait.