The Collapsing Market for Used EVs

17,466 Views | 210 Replies | Last: 9 mo ago by hph6203
GAC06
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Ag with kids said:

hph6203 said:

No, but with anything there's variation in manufacturing and failures occur quicker than expected. That's what a warranty is for.

This is a discussion of norms, not anecdotes. There are anecdotes on the high side and the low side and the truth of the norm is somewhere in between. There's also people that are dumbasses that don't take care of their vehicles and do dip**** stuff like super charge their cars to 90% every time they charge it and wonder why their battery didn't last like the dumbass Uber driver that's been posted on this forum multiple times.

Hint: He is net losing time by waiting for the car to charge from 80% to 90% rather than leaving at 80%, doing trips and then coming back at 10% and charging to 80%. And he's not paying to destroy his car in the process.

It's the equivalent of a person whining about their car dying while never doing routine maintenance. I'm not in to using the moron for the standard of design.


Kind of like you thinking the hypothetical "I forgot to charge my car" is a compelling argument when that would typically require the person to forget to charge their car for a week straight and even in that event they can go to a Supercharger and get 70 miles in 5 minutes rather than your hypothetical waiting around for 20.


Somehow people become universally bumfuzzling stupid when it comes to EVs and we must protect them. Where in every other avenue of life your attitude is undoubtedly stupid wins stupid prizes.
So...where is the real DATA then. Not your screenshots.

And, see, this is where your fanboi stuff is annoying. You handwave away REAL LIFE issues.

People forget - A LOT. But then, they'll just go to a Supercharger....you mean the ONE Supercharger in Corpus Christi that's at La Palmera Mall? What if I live on the Island (I do) and need to get to work on the Bluff (I do)? I now have to drive 10 min PAST work to get to this Supercharger to then turn around and get back to work....but, wait...my car was almost dead back there on the Island. How did I get to the Supercharger???

If you'd actually acknowledge that real world issues exist and the world isn't your unicorn fart utopia, you might find people would listen to you more often instead of dismissing you outright.

I'm not even opposed to EVs (they're the future in my business, well, eVTOLs, but same concept) and you make me dislike them.


If you live on the island and work in Flour Bluff, you'd need to forget to charge for about a week, not a night.
Psycho Bunny
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Ag with kids said:



These same people will exist in the EV world...
Except I can put gas in a gas can and give myself another 20 miles or so to find a gas station. What's the EV guy going to do? Go buy a pack of batteries and hope for a miracle
Aggie Football forever 8 and 4.

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Ag with kids
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GAC06 said:

Ag with kids said:

hph6203 said:

No, but with anything there's variation in manufacturing and failures occur quicker than expected. That's what a warranty is for.

This is a discussion of norms, not anecdotes. There are anecdotes on the high side and the low side and the truth of the norm is somewhere in between. There's also people that are dumbasses that don't take care of their vehicles and do dip**** stuff like super charge their cars to 90% every time they charge it and wonder why their battery didn't last like the dumbass Uber driver that's been posted on this forum multiple times.

Hint: He is net losing time by waiting for the car to charge from 80% to 90% rather than leaving at 80%, doing trips and then coming back at 10% and charging to 80%. And he's not paying to destroy his car in the process.

It's the equivalent of a person whining about their car dying while never doing routine maintenance. I'm not in to using the moron for the standard of design.


Kind of like you thinking the hypothetical "I forgot to charge my car" is a compelling argument when that would typically require the person to forget to charge their car for a week straight and even in that event they can go to a Supercharger and get 70 miles in 5 minutes rather than your hypothetical waiting around for 20.


Somehow people become universally bumfuzzling stupid when it comes to EVs and we must protect them. Where in every other avenue of life your attitude is undoubtedly stupid wins stupid prizes.
So...where is the real DATA then. Not your screenshots.

And, see, this is where your fanboi stuff is annoying. You handwave away REAL LIFE issues.

People forget - A LOT. But then, they'll just go to a Supercharger....you mean the ONE Supercharger in Corpus Christi that's at La Palmera Mall? What if I live on the Island (I do) and need to get to work on the Bluff (I do)? I now have to drive 10 min PAST work to get to this Supercharger to then turn around and get back to work....but, wait...my car was almost dead back there on the Island. How did I get to the Supercharger???

If you'd actually acknowledge that real world issues exist and the world isn't your unicorn fart utopia, you might find people would listen to you more often instead of dismissing you outright.

I'm not even opposed to EVs (they're the future in my business, well, eVTOLs, but same concept) and you make me dislike them.


If you live on the island and work in Flour Bluff, you'd need to forget to charge for about a week, not a night.
I'm lazy...sue me. I wouldn't want to haul the power cable out all way to the driveway when I got home, then I might forget.

It happens even in the good parts of town.

BTW, you assumed that I didn't drive into town at lunch or after work...good assumption. I'm getting back to the Island ASAP when I leave work.

BTW...I'm just pointing out real world issues that do and will occur. We don't all have *****in' betty telling us BINGO...
GAC06
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Now we've gone from B.S. battery failures to explaining that a reduction in growth is still increased sales, and we're back to "what about people too dumb or lazy to charge".

Let's not do this again.
Ag with kids
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GAC06 said:

Now we've gone from B.S. battery failures to explaining that a reduction in growth is still increased sales, and we're back to "what about people too dumb or lazy to charge".

Let's not do this again.
So, you're saying real world issues don't occur so we shouldn't plan for them

GREAT idea.
GAC06
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My college roommate's gf drove her dodge neon until the engine seized. Oil changes were too complicated for her. Stupid people have stupid people problems. Hopefully she learned from the experience. If you drive your EV home and have less than 10% charge and still don't charge it, you may learn a lesson.
techno-ag
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The average IQ is 100.

Half of all people have an IQ below 100.

Trump will fix it.
GAC06
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Oh, I believe you. And most of them know that slowed growth doesn't mean a drop in sales.
hph6203
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Don't… buy one? The person in your hypothetical is a stupid person not necessarily because those circumstances can't occur, but they were dumb enough to be in that position in the first place. I can buy an EV and use it and not forget to charge my car, because I'm not dumb. If a person is the kind of dumb that can't do that, don't buy one. It is not a stupid persons product yet. You're coming up with these hypotheticals of a dumb person who shouldn't buy an EV in the current market and trying to extrapolate that to every consumer in the marketplace as if it should be a concern to every consumer.

Never have I told anyone they should buy an EV, not on this forum, not to anyone I know. The only thing I've said is that EVs are not a stupid product and they are improving in utility at a rate faster than combustion vehicles. That's it. I don't argue people should buy them, just that some people do and are justified in finding them to be a superior experience and they do not have to be stupid or a climate warrior to have that impression. People use their cars differently. I cannot remember the last time I drove in a single stretch without stopping for a distance longer than the range of an EV.


Better batteries are being designed, faster charging is being developed, more chargers are being deployed. Thinking that the current market and ease of use with 8% penetration is going to be the same as the environment where it's 25% of the market is assuming that nothing about EVs improves other than the sales numbers. That's not reality. That's not the historical reality, it's not the future reality.
befitter
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sanangelo said:

Here are 8-year-old Teslas. Still holding value.


But is anyone buying them?
Ag with kids
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GAC06 said:

My college roommate's gf drove her dodge neon until the engine seized. Oil changes were too complicated for her. Stupid people have stupid people problems. Hopefully she learned from the experience. If you drive your EV home and have less than 10% charge and still don't charge it, you may learn a lesson.
Yes they will.

And so will lots of others.

Sorry I'm just pointing out things about human nature.

BTW, how often to people fill up now? Maybe once a week or week and half? So now they're conditioned to that.

But, you think they will immediately follow all the new rules of an EV and charge way more often?

I understand that people will completely have to change how they do things with EVs. Most people won't.

But, whatever...you're free to call them stupid.

You don't actually realize I'm on your side with EVs though...so...
Ag with kids
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techno-ag said:

The average IQ is 100.

Half of all people have an IQ below 100.


But all of them will treat EVs exactly like first adopters do!!!
GAC06
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People who fill up once a week won't need to charge much more than that, but they'd be missing much of the benefit.

Also I don't consider myself on a "side". I'm just enjoying making fun of the anti EV crowd's nonsense. My current ICE car is my favorite car I've ever owned. My next car will likely be an EV though.
Ag with kids
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hph6203 said:

Don't… buy one? The person in your hypothetical is a stupid person not necessarily because those circumstances can't occur, but they were dumb enough to be in that position in the first place. I can buy an EV and use it and not forget to charge my car, because I'm not dumb. If a person is the kind of dumb that can't do that, don't buy one. It is not a stupid persons product yet. You're coming up with these hypotheticals of a dumb person who shouldn't buy an EV in the current market and trying to extrapolate that to every consumer in the marketplace as if it should be a concern to every consumer.

Never have I told anyone they should buy an EV, not on this forum, not to anyone I know. The only thing I've said is that EVs are not a stupid product and they are improving in utility at a rate faster than combustion vehicles. That's it. I don't argue people should buy them, just that some people do and are justified in finding them to be a superior experience and they do not have to be stupid or a climate warrior to have that impression. People use their cars differently. I cannot remember the last time I drove in a single stretch without stopping for a distance longer than the range of an EV.


Better batteries are being designed, faster charging is being developed, more chargers are being deployed. Thinking that the current market and ease of use with 8% penetration is going to be the same as the environment where it's 25% of the market is assuming that nothing about EVs improves other than the sales numbers. That's not reality. That's not the historical reality, it's not the future reality.
And you won't accept reality that has to do with human nature and behavior.

These aren't just hypotheticals. This kind of stuff happens all the time to people (maybe not people you would associate with, but still it happens).

If you don't think you need to plan for it, you're wrong.

I understand the tech. I support the tech.

Sorry, that's all of the points in your wall of text I'll reply to in this post...

Might get back to more of them later...
Psycho Bunny
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Aggie Football forever 8 and 4.

Texas Bowl bound since 2011.
sanangelo
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befitter said:

sanangelo said:

Here are 8-year-old Teslas. Still holding value.


But is anyone buying them?
Not many are buying $TSLA right now

San Angelo LIVE!
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Ag with kids
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GAC06 said:

People who fill up once a week won't need to charge much more than that, but they'd be missing much of the benefit.

Also I don't consider myself on a "side". I'm just enjoying making fun of the anti EV crowd's nonsense. My current ICE car is my favorite car I've ever owned. My next car will likely be an EV though.
My point about the fill ups was about human conditioning. Many people will have that same behavior with EVs and...well...you may not be able to just stop at the charging station for 3 min when you're late to work

BTW, I drive a Rubicon and a Scat Pack.

Both awesome fun. Totally different uses though. Rubicon for the beach. Scat Pack for the highway.

Can't justify an EV though for myself. The charging at home would be a MAJOR PITA and I've already explained the charging if I leave the house.

But, if folks want one and it works...have at it!!!
hph6203
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The consumer bears responsibility in understanding the capabilities, requirements and limitations of the product. The manufacturer does not have a requirement to ensure its usefulness in all scenarios to all consumers. It is the manufacturers responsibility to design the product it is the consumers responsibility to determine viability for their own use case. What's the solution to a consumer in 2024 buying an EV that is forgetful and doesn't have super chargers nearby? Don't buy it. That is not dismissive of the problem of the 2024 consumer, it is the solution. They don't buy it.

What's the progression to making that product viable for that consumer eventually? Faster charging and more chargers. You're asking the question why hasn't anyone waved a wand and made charging infrastructure ubiquitous today, not making a genuine question of how is that problem solved in the future because the solution is obvious. It just takes time.
JAW3336
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Ag with kids said:



The charging at home would be a MAJOR PITA




You are making way too much out of the 5 seconds it takes to plug in the car at home.
GAC06
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His garage is full of crap and a golf cart. It's too hard to carry a plug 10-15ft to save time and thousands of dollars.
hph6203
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His scenario is a car in the garage that he drives on weekends and a car in each side of the driveway with a bunch of junk in half of the garage so he doesn't have two parking spaces in the garage. It's not actually a pain in the ass to solve, it's just he doesn't want to put any effort in to solving it. Which is fine. It's only a real problem if he wants an EV, which he doesn't, so it's not a real problem. He just uses it as a hypothetical representation of the norm experience of car drivers and tries to say it's a difficult problem to solve logistically rather than a lack of motivation/interest.

If it were a real problem for a real person the solution is… park the car in the garage nose first, back the cars in the driveway, place the charger on the side of the garage where the car is parked. It can now charge every vehicle at any time. Or for a little more money install multiple chargers.
agent-maroon
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Or maybe he didn't have a problem that an EV would solve in the first damn place?
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GAC06
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Are you a wizard
hph6203
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agent-maroon said:

Or maybe he didn't have a problem that an EV would solve in the first damn place?
Is there an echo in here?

hph6203 said:

It's not actually a pain in the ass to solve, it's just he doesn't want to put any effort in to solving it. Which is fine. It's only a real problem if he wants an EV, which he doesn't, so it's not a real problem.


The only thing wrong with his scenario is that he portrays it as a flaw in EVs as a product. It's not. He just doesn't want an EV, has a scenario that he believes portrays a difficulty of owning an EV, and then claims it's a difficult problem to solve for a lot of consumers. It's that last part where the thing falls apart. It's only difficult if you lack minimal motivation to solve it. Possess minimal motivation and a desire to buy an EV? Easy problem to solve.

It's similar to his "what if someone forgets to charge their car?" Problem. That's not a product problem, it's a user or consumer/product fit problem. The user can adapt or they can choose not to buy the product in its current state. Problem solved.
agent-maroon
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Yeah, I guess you did say that. Just my reaction to another multi-page thread about how you can change the many things in your life for the inconvenient privilege of owning a battery that can break the speed limit. EV's don't solve any problems that I'm aware of but they sure do seem to generate a significant number of new ones.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
JAW3336
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Solved my problem of filling up with gas 2 times a week and paying 250+ a month for gas.

hph6203
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Net reduction in energy consumption
Net reduction in ownership costs
Long term reduction in vehicle prices
Drives increase in battery production reducing the cost of energy storage
Drives improvements in battery technology
Long term stabilization of the grid by utilizing vehicles as grid storage/load balancing
No more trips to gas stations to get harassed by bums begging for money
Net reduction in air pollution/particulates in the air
Personal residential power back up in the event of a power outage
Long term better product for autonomous vehicles

The reason you don't see how they solve problems is that you don't consider all of the ancillary impacts/benefits they have and are merely focused on "vehicle drives from place to place", because you assume the total utility of the product is overlapped on top of the current combustion vehicle capabilities and compare the current capabilities of combustion vehicles to the equivalent capabilities of EVs without considering the possibility that EVs add capabilities that combustion vehicles don't.

As an example:

People look at an EV and think "that thing sucks in the cold, the range drops dramatically in sub zero temperatures!" What they don't consider is that vehicle can be plugged in while in someone's driveway, can turn on its climate system on a schedule, defrost the car before a person has to go to work, and they get into a 72 degree full defrosted car with heated seats while still having more than enough range for most people's daily commute. In other words that person doesn't have to get up early to dig their car out from under a layer of ice. Do they give up winter range? Yes, but they gain thoughtless defrosting of their car and a preheated vehicle. Is that a fair tradeoff for everyone? No. But it is to some.




Again, EVs are not a panacea of perfection that solves all the problems of vehicle ownership and they are not lacking in drawbacks. They have benefits some consumers find useful, and tradeoffs that some find to be dealbreakers. The current models and experience of EVs are not the end state of EVs.
VitruvianAg
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Psycho Bunny said:

Ag with kids said:



These same people will exist in the EV world...
Except I can put gas in a gas can and give myself another 20 miles or so to find a gas station. What's the EV guy going to do? Go buy a pack of batteries and hope for a miracle


Carry a Honda generator, dummy!
VitruvianAg
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Ag with kids said:

Charpie said:

Part of the issue with the value of Teslas is how much the new ones don't cost. Elon drove the price of the newer ones down. The market is flooded with them now.

I don't get the obsession with electric vehicles.
It's not so much that Elon drove the price of newer ones down, it's that those prices fell as the market and tech matured - think HDTVs.

The first 32 in HDTVs were hella expensive when they came out compared to CRTs...the early adopters always pay the high price to bring the product into the bigger market.

It appears Tesla has helped do the same things.
Driving down the price of Tesla's cars has been the 25 year plan from the beginning!
DrEvazanPhD
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Bubblez
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DrEvazanPhD said:





I'm sure people preferred riding horses instead of an automobile for whatever reason
hph6203
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AG
All technology starts out expensive in relative terms, but the process of reducing costs is not effortless or thoughtless. Saying that Elon/Tesla didn't drive down the cost of EVs is an assumption that the reduction was inevitable. It wasn't. Lots of incremental and major improvements have gone into improving the costs associated with EVs. It's also an assumption that the modern EVs are at their price bottoms when they absolutely are not. So yes, they have spent the last 20 years driving down costs, improving production rates and reduces the price consumers pay for an EV.

Is a heat pump an innovative thing in and of itself? No, but the manner in which it was integrated into an EV was. A heat pump in a traditional car does not make much sense, because power a climate control system is just burning more gas, but using more energy in an EV is a loss of range or needing more batteries, meaning more cost. Cutting parts means less weight, more range, and cheaper costs.


A comparison of the entire coolant system for the Ford Mach-E and Model Y


How do you increase manufacturing speed and reduce waste? Instead of stamping, you cast instead of stamp. First introduced in the Model Y for the back end, and then the front end, and now used in the Cybertruck


How do you further increase production rate/reduce labor/reduce cost? You build in parallel. This is the proposed manufacturing process for Tesla's next vehicle which is supposed to go into production 2H next year.


How do you deal with a dead battery? Get another EV to recharge it:
DrEvazanPhD
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Bubblez said:

DrEvazanPhD said:





I'm sure people preferred riding horses instead of an automobile for whatever reason


I'm sure that was the case. Especially when there wasn't a nationwide system of roads and gas stations. But the advantages of a car over a horse are substantial: you don't need to feed or water a car, and if a wheel breaks, you can replace it instead of shoot the car.
techno-ag
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This whole canard about falling prices for EVs is based on faulty reasoning. The prices fell because Tesla is desperate to hold onto market share. They would dearly love to maintain those profit margins but right now they feel that market share is more important than higher profits.

Finally, their prices won't go too much lower over time because new safety features are always being mandated, and these drive the prices up over time. So comparing electric cars to consumer electronics is not an apples to apples thing.
Trump will fix it.
cecil77
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DrEvazanPhD said:

Bubblez said:

DrEvazanPhD said:





I'm sure people preferred riding horses instead of an automobile for whatever reason


I'm sure that was the case. Especially when there wasn't a nationwide system of roads and gas stations. But the advantages of a car over a horse are substantial: you don't need to feed or water a car, and if a wheel breaks, you can replace it instead of shoot the car.

Even the purported advantages of EV over ICE nowhere nearly approach the advantages of ICE over horse.
 
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