hph6203 said:

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I think we understand that...

What's your point?

techno-ag said:

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This whole canard about falling prices for EVs is based on faulty reasoning. The prices fell because Tesla is desperate to hold onto market share. They would dearly love to maintain those profit margins but right now they feel that market share is more important than higher profits.

Finally, their prices won't go too much lower over time because new safety features are always being mandated, and these drive the prices up over time. So comparing electric cars to consumer electronics is not an apples to apples thing.

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hph6203 said:

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techno-ag said:

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This whole canard about falling prices for EVs is based on faulty reasoning. The prices fell because Tesla is desperate to hold onto market share. They would dearly love to maintain those profit margins but right now they feel that market share is more important than higher profits.

Finally, their prices won't go too much lower over time because new safety features are always being mandated, and these drive the prices up over time. So comparing electric cars to consumer electronics is not an apples to apples thing.

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That chart didn't dispute what he posted...

Seems like y'all are talking sideways past each other

I posted about cost cutting permitting price cuts, and he solely focused on price cuts and implicitly suggested cost cutting is not occurring. Tesla's COGS/vehicle today is almost exactly the same as it was in 2021 despite ~20% inflation in the domestic market over that period. That requires cost cutting.

Original post:
The point is I posted about cutting costs that resulted in Tesla being able to cut prices and examples of how they achieved it and their plan to continue cutting costs. And he focused solely on prices. He has a short term time horizon that exists in a mental space where the last 12 months is all that exists, so he's under the impression that the prices paid in 2022 and the prices paid in 2021 were the same and it is now a realization in the lack of demand that is resulting in price cuts, rather than two years ago being the outlier. He doesn't know that prices rose rapidly in late 2021 to limit demand to supply while they ramped multiple factories and prices falling is not an attempt to maintain market share, but rather satiate the current production/grow volumes and that the majority of the price cuts are a renormalization to past pricing levels not a panic reduction in prices. No one is whining about dealer markups disappearing for other vehicles. People are whining about EVs being too expensive.

Between 2017 (Model 3 intro) and 2021 Tesla's COGS/vehicle fell every year. 2022 it rose due in large part to Chinese lockdowns/slowdowns in lithium production, 2023 they fell again roughly back to where they were in 2021. That is despite ~20% inflation over that period. Their COGS per vehicle today is lower than it was in 2017, and lower in real terms than it has ever been and he claims it is merely a canard that they're able to continue to cut prices. That it is solely margin compression and demand destruction causing it. That continued cost cutting is not possible because car price go up and only ever go up because car price go up.


I'm lengthy in my posts because I'm responding to people that have limited knowledge on the subject and haven't actually paid attention for the last 10 years, or taken the time to understand it. So if I just say "costs have fallen" I get responses like "prices have fallen because they're trying to maintain demand and that can't continue long term." So I try to contextualize all of it in a single post so I don't have to have a back and forth about the entire history of Tesla.

And if you think that contextualization isn't necessary I'll just remind you that we just had a discussion on this thread about the difference between a growth rate falling from 76% to 50% being different than demand falling.

hph6203 said:

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Don't… buy one?

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That's fine and dandy until the government outlaws ICEs. It's happened in Europe (effective 2035) and it will happen here if the Democrats get their way.

I don't trust politicians to follow through with a plan when it means potentially losing their jobs. I don't trust them to follow through on what they say they're going to do tomorrow, much less stick to a plan for more than a decade.

Exceptions will be made, deadlines will be shifted, and they will make the claim their actions are what drove the market rather than the market doing it. I'd be more surprised by the EU actually having a ban on ICE vehicles in 2035 than the EU collapsing as an entity by 2035.


That said, I don't support bans, I don't support the CAFE standards. I think they are detrimental to the development of electric vehicles, not beneficial. I think their end state if they are stuck to for too long is to sour the consumer on EVs because they force a growth of adoption faster than is sustainable.

I only read the headline, but weren't there problems with reliability during really cold weather up north?

Does negative press like that have any bearing in the overall demand?
Does the fact that Elon stepped out of line with the hard-core lefties make any difference for some of his market?

GAC06 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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GAC06 said:

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What is the failure rate of batteries? Merely stating the length of the warranty and the possible cost of replacement doesn't mean much. ICE vehicles have a warranty that expires and engines and transmissions are also expensive. It doesn't mean all these vehicles explode when they're out of warranty.

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No...but, the likelihood of failure goes way up. Batteries DO have a lifetime.

It's one thing to buy an ICE car that is 10 years old with 150K miles on it and know you'll have to replace the alternator and may the power steering pump in a few years. That will cost 5% of what you're paying for the vehicle.

It's another to know you'll probably have to replace the battery that will cost 75% of the vehicle.

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Yes batteries will eventually fail. So will engines, transmissions, etc. My dad's Yukon just but the dust at 270k because it's not worth the cost to fix.

Is there an epidemic of batteries failing? If there was, wouldn't they lead with that?

Or is there a glut of crappy "first try" EV's hitting the market largely because the government made manufacturers that suck at making EV's make EV's? I sure wouldn't buy a used GM or Ford EV. They sucked when they were new.

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Yes. My battery on my 2013 Highlander Hybrid died and it was about 8k to replace it. I traded it in.

If they ever outlaw gas engines I am just going to ride my horse.

It's getting bad out there.

https://fortune.com/2024/02/21/tesla-price-cuts-driving-down-car-values-ev-makers-sending-checks-leasing-firms-compensate-them/amp/

A significant portion of the damage is already done. ICEs may be the best now they will ever be, since nobody wants to make long-term investments in a technology that will be banned in the near future.

And I think you are underestimating politicians' willingness to do things that should, by all rights, cost them their jobs. Democrats forced through Obamacare with 0 Republican votes, when the vast majority of the population was against it. ("Elections have consequences.") Obama was reelected. Biden's open border policy has almost no support in the population. Biden will be reelected. Etc.

Except the ICE engine has gotten continuously better, just as batteries have, for over 120 years. Look for instance at an F1 (or nascar, or whatever circuit) car today vs. 20 years ago. No contest the technology keeps advancing, and represents something like 90 percent of the vehicles purchased in any given year still today.

Meanwhile dementia patient Biden pulls the plug on EV's:

Quote:

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When President Joe Biden issued regulations that he and his side of the political aisle hoped would eventually lead to electric vehicles replacing automobiles that burn gasoline and diesel fuel, it was regarded as a glorious moment. The backtracking, however, has begun, a welcome development we didn't believe was possible from the man who once irresponsibly promised "to end fossil fuel."
Unfortunately, it's being done for the wrong reasons.
The New York Times reported over the weekend that the "administration intends to relax elements of one of its most ambitious strategies to combat climate change, limits on tailpipe emissions that are designed to get Americans to switch from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles." The Times calls it a "concession to automakers and labor unions."
We would have preferred a concession to science and the limits a president should have on the lives of everyday folks. For now, though, we take what we can get: Biden is merely giving the industry more time to meet the targets that he, not Congress through the constitutional lawmaking process, set.

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I'll consider buying an EV when it becomes just as or more economically practical as an ICE vehicle.

You overestimate their ability to change an entire industry as thoroughly as they wish they could. It's a 10 year progression to an outright ban, so it's not going to be something done overnight. The pain points will reveal themselves long before they even approach banning combustion vehicles.

The demise of combustion will come through the improvement of the EV experience, not through government mandate. If the EV experience doesn't improve enough some form of combustion will survive.

And if you don't believe me read the post by Nortex where the proposed more stringent emission standards didn't even make it to step one. The side wanting to ban ICE vehicles is also the side heavily impacted by the influence of unions. Those are not aligned interests.

Jack Squat 83 said:

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I only read the headline, but weren't there problems with reliability during really cold weather up north?

Does negative press like that have any bearing in the overall demand?
Does the fact that Elon stepped out of line with the hard-core lefties make any difference for some of his market?

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The evacuation for a major hurricane should be something to watch.

one safe place said:

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Jack Squat 83 said:

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I only read the headline, but weren't there problems with reliability during really cold weather up north?

Does negative press like that have any bearing in the overall demand?
Does the fact that Elon stepped out of line with the hard-core lefties make any difference for some of his market?

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The evacuation for a major hurricane should be something to watch.

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Yep, it can be a ***** finding a gas pump that still has fuel left.

Rivian laying off 10% of workforce.

Rivian are the only ones producing vehicles (golf carts) with some semblance of quality/prestige vs. Tesla.

AggieUSMC said:

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I'll consider buying an EV when it becomes just as or more economically practical as an ICE vehicle.

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So once an EV costs thousands extra per year you'll consider one?

Just let the free market system work. I feel like most politicians don't believe in capitalism and the free market system.

GAC06 said:

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AggieUSMC said:

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I'll consider buying an EV when it becomes just as or more economically practical as an ICE vehicle.

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So once an EV costs thousands extra per year you'll consider one?

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He's probably accounting for his time at a higher $ per hour than you are accounting for yours.

GAC06 said:

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AggieUSMC said:

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I'll consider buying an EV when it becomes just as or more economically practical as an ICE vehicle.

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So once an EV costs thousands extra per year you'll consider one?

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Well, except the initial price if you're not buying a luxury class vehicle...

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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GAC06 said:

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AggieUSMC said:

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I'll consider buying an EV when it becomes just as or more economically practical as an ICE vehicle.

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So once an EV costs thousands extra per year you'll consider one?

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He's probably accounting for his time at a higher $ per hour than you are accounting for yours.

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That's unlikely, but good for him

rgleml said:

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Just let the free market system work. I feel like most politicians don't believe in capitalism and the free market system.

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It's been a while since we had one that did believe in Capitalism and the Free Market.

bmks270 said:

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Rivian laying off 10% of workforce.

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Here's why

Rivian lost $43,372 for every vehicle that they delivered in Q4 2023 (vs $30k in Q3).

Rivian lost $124k per vehicle in Q4 2022. pic.twitter.com/fiqeVb0BBE

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 21, 2024

aggiedata said:

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bmks270 said:

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Rivian laying off 10% of workforce.

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Here's why

Rivian lost $43,372 for every vehicle that they delivered in Q4 2023 (vs $30k in Q3).

Rivian lost $124k per vehicle in Q4 2022. pic.twitter.com/fiqeVb0BBE

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 21, 2024

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See? They're making more money.

-EVangelists.

https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/22/24080220/mercedes-benz-ev-only-sales-2030-back-off

Quote:

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It was only three years ago that Mercedes was feeling quite bullish about plug-in powertrains, saying that by 2030 it would only sell EVs. At the time, the company said it would completely phase out gas-powered vehicles, while including the caveat "where markets allowed."

Now it seems that the market is not allowing Mercedes to follow through on its plans. Today, the company said in its fourth quarter earnings statement that it only expects 50 percent of its sales to be all-electric - a significant drop from the once rosier outlook. Gas and hybrid vehicles will remain a part of the company's future for years to come.

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You know if Mercedes is conceding it's bad, it's really bad.

Germany's in a 'green' energy induced recession too. Their economy is an absolute dumpster fire compared even to our own. Childless Frau Merkel must be so proud.

Daimler can't afford to toss cash at stupid EV-dominance dreams globally right now. Building cars at an higher price that people don't want, to sell at a premium is a 'brutal business.' Eventually, the market sorts itself out.

Have you been in a Lucid? Just like a Mercedes

aggiedata said:

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bmks270 said:

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Rivian laying off 10% of workforce.

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Here's why

Rivian lost $43,372 for every vehicle that they delivered in Q4 2023 (vs $30k in Q3).

Rivian lost $124k per vehicle in Q4 2022. pic.twitter.com/fiqeVb0BBE

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 21, 2024

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They should sell MORE and make it up in volume.

Correct... build a bigger factory

aggiedata said:

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bmks270 said:

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Rivian laying off 10% of workforce.

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Here's why

Rivian lost $43,372 for every vehicle that they delivered in Q4 2023 (vs $30k in Q3).

Rivian lost $124k per vehicle in Q4 2022. pic.twitter.com/fiqeVb0BBE

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 21, 2024

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Holy hell

i actually drove a rivian truck today. ...and i might buy one.



...but that warranty on the battery is concerning if the manufacturer might go bankrupt in a year or two...

Ag with kids said:

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aggiedata said:

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bmks270 said:

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Rivian laying off 10% of workforce.

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Here's why

Rivian lost $43,372 for every vehicle that they delivered in Q4 2023 (vs $30k in Q3).

Rivian lost $124k per vehicle in Q4 2022. pic.twitter.com/fiqeVb0BBE

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 21, 2024

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They should sell MORE and make it up in volume.

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Two more?