Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

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Teslag
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In reply to samurai_science • 7:00p, 3/21/24
AG
What about their Jewish president? Did he come back in the Nazi Ukraine search?
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nortex97
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7:40p, 3/21/24
AG
Macron, being his usual self;

Quote:
French President Emmanuel Macron believes Ukraine might be defeated on the battlefield in short order, the French edition of Politico reported on Wednesday.

The outlet's Playbook section spoke with several members of the president's party who had attended a working dinner at the Elysee Palace the evening before. While most of the discussion centered on the upcoming European Parliament elections, the Ukraine conflict also came up.

"Ukraine could fall very quickly," one of the outlet's sources quoted Macron as saying.

Macron ramped up his rhetoric about Ukraine a few weeks after a number of French nationals fighting on behalf of Kiev were killed in a Russian missile strike. At a meeting of EU leaders in Paris in late February, herefused to rule out the possibility of a NATO intervention in Ukraine.

Though the idea was quickly rejected by almost all members of the US-led bloc and its secretary-general, Macron doubled down, declaring there would be "no limits" to French support for Kiev and calling Russia an "adversary." Meanwhile, the French Army's Chief of Staff Pierre Schill announced that the country's military was "ready," presumably for a war.
[url=https://www.rt.com/news/594168-french-military-reports-ukraine/][/url]
Moscow has strongly condemned Macron's remarks and cautioned NATO against taking further hostile moves. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the deployment of Western soldiers to Ukraine would make direct conflict with Russia "inevitable."




Oh, well, a half dozen 35 year old F-16's will change all this.
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GAC06
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:57p, 3/21/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Macron, being his usual self;

Quote:
French President Emmanuel Macron believes Ukraine might be defeated on the battlefield in short order, the French edition of Politico reported on Wednesday.

The outlet's Playbook section spoke with several members of the president's party who had attended a working dinner at the Elysee Palace the evening before. While most of the discussion centered on the upcoming European Parliament elections, the Ukraine conflict also came up.

"Ukraine could fall very quickly," one of the outlet's sources quoted Macron as saying.

Macron ramped up his rhetoric about Ukraine a few weeks after a number of French nationals fighting on behalf of Kiev were killed in a Russian missile strike. At a meeting of EU leaders in Paris in late February, herefused to rule out the possibility of a NATO intervention in Ukraine.

Though the idea was quickly rejected by almost all members of the US-led bloc and its secretary-general, Macron doubled down, declaring there would be "no limits" to French support for Kiev and calling Russia an "adversary." Meanwhile, the French Army's Chief of Staff Pierre Schill announced that the country's military was "ready," presumably for a war.
[url=https://www.rt.com/news/594168-french-military-reports-ukraine/][/url]
Moscow has strongly condemned Macron's remarks and cautioned NATO against taking further hostile moves. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the deployment of Western soldiers to Ukraine would make direct conflict with Russia "inevitable."




Oh, well, a half dozen 35 year old F-16's will change all this.


Do you think they can attack ground targets now that you got dismantled on the other thread?
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nortex97
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In reply to GAC06 • 4:38a, 3/22/24
AG
GAC06 said:
nortex97 said:
Macron, being his usual self;

Quote:
French President Emmanuel Macron believes Ukraine might be defeated on the battlefield in short order, the French edition of Politico reported on Wednesday.

The outlet's Playbook section spoke with several members of the president's party who had attended a working dinner at the Elysee Palace the evening before. While most of the discussion centered on the upcoming European Parliament elections, the Ukraine conflict also came up.

"Ukraine could fall very quickly," one of the outlet's sources quoted Macron as saying.

Macron ramped up his rhetoric about Ukraine a few weeks after a number of French nationals fighting on behalf of Kiev were killed in a Russian missile strike. At a meeting of EU leaders in Paris in late February, herefused to rule out the possibility of a NATO intervention in Ukraine.

Though the idea was quickly rejected by almost all members of the US-led bloc and its secretary-general, Macron doubled down, declaring there would be "no limits" to French support for Kiev and calling Russia an "adversary." Meanwhile, the French Army's Chief of Staff Pierre Schill announced that the country's military was "ready," presumably for a war.
[url=https://www.rt.com/news/594168-french-military-reports-ukraine/][/url]
Moscow has strongly condemned Macron's remarks and cautioned NATO against taking further hostile moves. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the deployment of Western soldiers to Ukraine would make direct conflict with Russia "inevitable."




Oh, well, a half dozen 35 year old F-16's will change all this.


Do you think they can attack ground targets now that you got dismantled on the other thread?
Do they have the original radars and are they not 1979-1981 builds? The late 80's MLU did not include substantive capability enhancements to actual block 50 standards for ground attack, nor would that capability enhancement really be usable by Ukraine in any case (maybe they could be used down the road to launch pavetac/glide bombs). They won't get the 35 year old laser targeting pods. They haven't had time to also train the pilots for such missions and it would be absurd to risk the initial 6 frames in a ground attack role near the front line anyway. I can't keep replying there because the…assortment of…'tactical and strategic' fans will just flag any further responses.

The point was and is made that it is abjectly stupid to think these can and will make a difference as a strike platform least of all this year. In fact, I think it is rock stupid to think that, but I don't want to toss any names at any given posters. These are perhaps only marginally less capable than the existing MiG-29 frames of the same era Ukraine already operates, and given the compressed training and lack of range/endurance for the F-16 platform (plus lack of ability to conduct air to air refueling) and need to launch from rear bases only these things will frankly have zero impact at all, even in combat air patrol/interdiction duties. None of the munitions will be helpful in defending even western Ukraine from the missile and drone strikes Russia has been conducting. They might even be g-limited (to around less than 7G) due to the high hours on the frames.

Happy to help, as always! You navy guys always crack me up with your claimed broad expertise, just as combat service support warrant officers do.
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nortex97
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5:07a, 3/22/24
AG
Anyway, for my regular readers/lurkers who obviously depend on my updates, here is a more comprehensive one. (Sorry to break your hearts that 6 ancient F-16's this year won't make a lick of difference.) I mean, I am sure they will have some nifty social media posts and a pretty paint job.

For reference, this is what a large, effective tactical stand off (non-stealthy) ground attack platform/weapon looks like;



Interesting map of…actual air strikes one side is able to conduct on ground targets daily;



I guess attacking energy infrastructure is only 'fair' for one side?



I mean, Ukraine is trying to escalate the war at all costs, of course;



No worries, Ukraine is shooting down all the attacking missiles;





Russia was in the top five of developed/emerging countries in GDP growth last year. Fact. Putin and his rich oligarch got richer last year. The Russian army is stronger, and more capable than it was in early 2022, today, and is raising 2 more armies (14 divisions) this year. It is also producing tremendously more materiel domestically to support the proxy war than in 2021-2022. No trolling, tears, name-calling, 'snopes-fact-checking' attempts, or cope will change this situation.



Forever war, comrades!
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nortex97
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5:31a, 3/22/24
AG
The tears online over the strike on that hydro plant are really making me laugh this am;







I mean, this is a US election year, and the Democrats are looking pretty darn bad already, with what Biden's proxy war has done to our economy and Europe's alike. Saint Zelensky is really mis-playing his hand on this, imho.



The Economist has printed opinions from both sides and is one of the few publications providing a more complete picture of the war imho;



Not good news, Ukraine-backers;




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PlaneCrashGuy
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6:42a, 3/22/24
AG
I love seeing them seethe over retaliatory strikes on infrastructure. Quite funny.

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J. Walter Weatherman
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 7:28a, 3/22/24
PlaneCrashGuy said:
I love seeing them seethe over retaliatory strikes on infrastructure. Quite funny.



Well, one is in response to an invasion and would stop the second Russia goes home. Not really comparable.
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wtmartinaggie
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:10a, 3/22/24
AG
Things are about to get out of hand in a big, big way.
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nortex97
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In reply to wtmartinaggie • 8:47a, 3/22/24
AG
Agreed. I have zero joy about feeling this is going to prove me correct again.
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samurai_science
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In reply to Teslag • 10:10a, 3/22/24
Teslag said:
What about their Jewish president? Did he come back in the Nazi Ukraine search?
No, but plenty of others did, Nazi's I mean. Nice try
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samurai_science
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10:11a, 3/22/24
Still no funding?
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nortex97
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12:35p, 3/22/24
AG
No idea if this is true.



Again, the escalation in at the very least rhetoric, and as well near-term targeting is unmistakable;



Again, rhetoric;

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docb
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In reply to nortex97 • 12:52p, 3/22/24
AG
Russia's "serious consequences" line is total garbage against a country that can inflict serious damage to them. I hope they do try to inflict some serious consequences and let's see what happens.
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nortex97
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4:42a, 3/23/24
AG
Well, I anticipate a brutal series of strikes and perhaps a serious attempt toward Odessa/Dnieper now, as a consequence of the terrorists in Moscow. More brutality unleashed in kind as the terrorists were clearly from/returning to Ukraine after the 'work' at the concert hall.









This is insanity:





South African (caution, language):



Another disastrous night/month on the way for the people of Ukraine.



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nortex97
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5:23a, 3/23/24
AG
Pretty fascinating link from Benz here regarding the CIA, Hunter Biden, Trump impeachment lies, etc.



This whole farce of a war goes back (many years) to the Bidens of course. Transcript from GP for those curious;

Quote:
You have to understand what's going on here. Let me just give you a dozen data points on Hunter Biden CIA. The first thing is, Hunter was on the Chairman's Advisory Board of the National Democratic Institute, the NDI. The NDI is the DNC wing of the National Endowment for Democracy, which is the top CIA cutout used in our tens of thousands of NGO swarms. NED ranks number one. It was created to be the NGO affiliate of the CIA. It was created to do overtly what the CIA was doing covertly and getting in trouble for doing in the 20th century, created under the Reagan administration in 1983. There's something called the NDI for Democrats and the for Republicans, the CIA wing of the Republican Party. They both split spoils, basically on US foreign policy jobs that the CIA orchestrates.

You don't get to be part of the chairman's advisory committee of the NDI unless you are CIA-linked or CIA-vetted. It is a CIA. NGOs, government-organized, non-governmental organizations. This is a CIA-organize a CIA-organized, non-CIA organization. It's the CIA. He's on the chairman's advisory board of that. By the way, when he was at Burisma, who was the other person on the Barisma board from the US there was Cofer Black, who had spent 30 years in the CIA. Cofer Black was Mitt Romney's Sherpa to the intelligence community during his presidential run in 2012. You know what? Mitt Romney is on the board of the IRI, who I just mentioned, the International Republican Institute, the CIA cut out counterpart to the NDI. Barisma was a CIA operation. Let me say this again. Burisma was a CIA operation. So was Naftagas. That's the public and then, respectively, the private and public natural gas companies there. There were a couple of other private ones in addition to Burisma. But the CIA was trying to break down Gazprom and swing the gas market from Russia to NATO. They've been trying to do this for 16 friggin' years.

It's been an in-process CIA, State Department, Pentagon project for 16 frigging years. They were trying to capacity build Burisma and shift its board to make it US-controlled. They're doing the same thing simultaneously with Naftogaz, the feeder that Burisma feeds into. You can even read about the power struggle between George Soros and Vladimir Putin for control over Naftogaz, the state-owned titan that has been the privatization prize of the IMF. That is, that was part of the reason that we overthrew the Ukrainian government in 2014, is to privatize those assets because we knew that we were going to be cutting Russia off. So Western stakeholders wanted to profit from this trillion-dollar windfall if Russia could be kicked out the European energy market.

This is common activity for the Central Intelligence Agency, which was created by corporate lawyers in 1947 as its first class. The corporate espionage side of the CIA operation here has geopolitical dimensions. If you kill Russia's energy exports, you kill their military, which means you kill their ability to run air defense systems to Syria. You kill their ability to run small arms to sub-Saharan Africa to oppose US control over lithium and cobalt and copper and aluminum and gold and oil and gas there, too.

This was a long-range CIA project where Hunter Biden happened to be ass deep in exactly the number one geopolitical target of what the CIA was doing under the Obama administration, which is trying to kill Russia's energy exports. Meanwhile, you had this endogenous Ukrainian gas company that Hunter's on the board of. By the way, who's Hunter's dad at the time? It's Joe Biden, the vice President in charge of the Ukraine portfolio. But Joe Biden spent 30 10 years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 years rotating between chairman and ranking member. That is the coordinating wing of the Senate with the State Department and the CIA. It's specifically Central and Eastern Europe. Joe Biden was hugely involved in the Yugoslavia operation in the late 1990s, and breaking that up, which again was a CIA job, okay? That's why you have to understand the structure of the blob. Whenever you see the State Department, the CIA CIA is there and the Pentagon are there, and you just don't see it yet. Whenever you see the CIA, the State Department and the Pentagon there, you just don't see it yet. Even British intelligence is all over this LNG story.

You don't get British intelligence without US intelligence. The fact is, the CIA will lean on the Justice Department. I just did six hours of subscriber streams about the relationship between CIA and DOJ, and that the CIA will lean on DOJ to kill investigations into criminal activity involving assets of the CIA so that they can continue to do work that's in the US national interest, even if it's a criminal enterprise.
Because the CIA has a license to do that. They have the license to crime under NSC 10-2. They're licensed to do criminal activity as long as it's plausibly deniable. Hunter Biden was a part of a plausibly deniable CIA operation to swing the gas market towards That's why it's untouchable.
Probably deserves its own thread but I am a little groggy.

Simplicius has an update as well, regarding the past 24 hours of Russian attacks;

Quote:
The important question revolves around why these sudden attacks?

There are a few possibilities:

1. It's merely part of the pre-planned campaign to degrade Ukraine's infrastructure, particularly in advance of a planned larger Spring military campaign. The attacks' association with Ukraine's recent provocations, i.e. terror strikes on Belgorod, are merely coincidental.

2. The strikes are a direct response to Ukraine's recent provocations, including targeting of Russia's oil and gas infrastructure, terrorist actions against Belgorod region, etc. This is Putin's way of signaling to Ukraine that they've crossed a red line.

3. Or a combination of the two.
One of the reasons for the third option being most likely is that it's very plausible that Russia was forced by political necessities to make at least some kind of show of repaying all the recent criminal actions of the Kiev regime.

However, at the same time, there are increasing reports about various Russian mass buildups and preparations for a large offensive later this year. One of the interesting little mentioned aspects is thatif you'll recallboth before and after Kakhovka dam was destroyed, Ukraine played water level games with the Dnipro dam, by opening the sluices to further exacerbate the flooding and destroy Russian positions all along the Dnieper River.
Pending Russian offensive?

Quote:
So it is possible, or was oncebut under modern conditions of enemy ISR and long range precision strikes, like those of HIMARs, etc., it's not likely.
However:
[ol]
  • Ukraine's precision strike systems are being heavily attritioned now, HIMARS have been recently struck multiple times as Russia's own ISR capabilities are said to be massively ramping up with new satellites, mass use of drones and UMPK glide-bombs, streamlined/optimized kill chains, etc.
  • I'm not sure what the water level is currently, but if the levels are still low or nonexistent in places due to the Kakhovka dam destruction, then it could make such crossings more plausible.
  • Historic depletion of Ukraine's artillery munitions could allow acceptable counterfire levels for such a foray.
    • [/ol]Like I said, I still view it as highly unlikelyfor nowbut it's a possibility worth enumerating for the sake of discussion. We already know Russian command is adverse to losses and retreated from Kherson-side entirely just owing to the remote possibility of being stranded there with pontoon and logistics lines taken out. However, the fact that NATO's intentions to take the city have now become crystalized could result in Russian command taking the chance to accelerate Odessa's capture, rather than waiting for the full surrender of the AFU as I had expected would be the case.
    Recall that the French military officials themselves showed a map with French troops guarding the Dnieper specifically, as one of the possibilities for their usage. And Goncharenko confirmed this above, stating the Dnieper is one of the considered placements for French troops. Why would that be?
    Further recall Macron's earlier words: the AFU may face a rapid or sudden 'collapse'. Maybe Russia is laying the ground for a potential lightning offensive across the Dnieper. This is further supported by the fact that Shoigu just announced the creation of a new Dnepr Flotilla and new Zaporozhye formations:


    One must wonder, I believe, what the CIA goals/objectives really are. I just don't accept that Zelensky the beautiful man is actually ordering strikes on refineries against his handler's orders (see map of refinery strikes on my post above, this am). I don't think this is right, though, and again Putin/Russians have made vastly more from oil/gas exports due to this war.
    Quote:
    Russia is apparently making more money after the oil refinery attacks.

    No, the likelier explanation behind the warnings is that the U.S. knew Russia was on the verge of a massive retaliatory attack and the Biden administration is desperately trying to keep Ukraine from being "finished off" by a vengeful, 'no more Mr. Nice Guy' version of Putin. The blistering nature of last night's attacks once more proved that Russia has continued fighting with velvet gloves, and could, if it chooses, take the 'war' to a whole 'nother level.

    Biden is desperate to keep Russia from escalating too much as the administration is scrambling to keep Ukraine from total collapse right on the eve of elections. They would much rather either the war fall into some kind of stalemate simmer phase and get swept under the rug, or that Ukraine be convinced to settle the conflict for now in a way that could be portrayed as a victory for Biden.

    We've covered this before, but to reiterate: how can they portray the seemingly catastrophic situation as a 'victory'? Easy. They've now drummed up the fear that Russia was set to conquer all of Europe all along, likely convincing their gormless constituency of this ludicrous 'fact'. Thus, by freezing the conflict at the DMZ line they can proclaim: "See, we stopped the madman Putin from taking over the world! Our combined efforts equipped the heroic AFU with the capability it needed to stop this unprecedented historic-level lethal force dead in its tracks. If it weren't for our efforts, Putin's blood-soaked flag would be hanging from the Eiffel Tower, the Reichstag, maybe even from Westminster Palace. This victory is a testament to the solidarity of Europe and the Western world, and the Biden administration's unflagging determination for Peace, Freedom, and Prosperity of the Rules Based Order."

    But what the Biden admin doesn't want is for Putin to go "gloves off" and turn Ukraine into a giant skidmark on the eve of what could be a historically catastrophic election for the Democrats.
    Who knows, I guess, but again this is a very, very dangerous time.
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    Grapes
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    8:03a, 3/23/24
    Great info Nortex. I appreciate all you've done to try and provide a balance of information here. Over time it's proving to be more lucid than the other Russia thread.

    You've taken a lot of flak for it but it is appreciated for whatever thats worth.

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    YouBet
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    9:51a, 3/23/24
    AG
    On Germany, I'll point out again they are a dumb, worthless country that is duplicitous in this entire affair.

    They are the largest EU economy yet have one of the worst defensive capabilities.

    They claim that Russia is their nemesis yet they willingly sacrificed domestic energy production to make themselves dependent on Russian fossil fuels all the while laughing at Trump who pointed this out.

    Biden then bombs Nordstream to add insult to injury. lol.

    And then when trading sanctions against Russia went into effect Germany re-routed exports to Russia satellite states so that they could still find their nemesis.

    Germany continues to be one of the worst countries that has ever existed considering all the human destruction they have caused. And I say this as one who has been to that country more than any other and has several German friends.

    They suck.
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    jagvocate
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    In reply to YouBet • 10:28a, 3/23/24
    AG
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    Rongagin71
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    In reply to jagvocate • 1:22p, 3/23/24
    AG
    I don't know that everything Benz says is true, but it sure sounds right.
    Ukraine didn't just happen by accident.
    The Bidens didn't just accidently get involved so deeply.
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    Pumpkinhead
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    In reply to nortex97 • 3:40p, 3/23/24
    AG
    That Guy says Biden wants the Ukraine vs Russia thing to be a 'stalemate'. Well, yeah, it is obvious to everyone that has been the West intention. The West is content with a stalemate scenario. And this thing has now been going on for 25 months. How much longer does it have to continue before being officially considered a 'stalemate'?
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    AtticusMatlock
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    In reply to Pumpkinhead • 10:46p, 3/23/24
    That clearly wasn't the plan at the beginning of the invasion. Biden called Zelensky to talk about evacuation. Zelensky said he was going to put up a fight and they did. That's when the West collectively realized the Russian army wasn't as capable as they thought and saw an opportunity to further weaken and isolate Russia. If they could do so without any western troops on the ground, it would be a huge win.

    It also buys time for europe to wake up in rearm. Trump tried to warn them and they laughed at him.
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    YouBet
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    In reply to AtticusMatlock • 9:10a, 3/24/24
    AG
    AtticusMatlock said:
    That clearly wasn't the plan at the beginning of the invasion. Biden called Zelensky to talk about evacuation. Zelensky said he was going to put up a fight and they did. That's when the West collectively realized the Russian army wasn't as capable as they thought and saw an opportunity to further weaken and isolate Russia. If they could do so without any western troops on the ground, it would be a huge win.

    It also buys time for europe to wake up in rearm. Trump tried to warn them and they laughed at him.


    It is funny how right the guy has been on so many issues. He gets laughed at repeatedly as some kind of fascist clown yet he was right on German energy and right on EU defense. And, really, it's not because he's some kind of genius.

    It's simply because he boils things down to common sense and doesn't overthink the hell out of everything.
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    FJB24
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    6:42a, 3/25/24
    I received a message with this piece this am;

    Quote:
    The most important fact about Putin's re-election is that 88% of Russians voted, a much higher turnout than in any Western democracy. Russians may not have had much choice of candidate but they had a choice of voting or not. The massive turnout is consistent with Putin's 85% approval rating according to the independent Levada poll.

    Instead of collapsing, Russia has become the focal point for a reorganization of global supply chains and their financing, and its economy is growing, rather than shrinking by half, as President Biden promised in March 2022.

    Ukraine is running out of soldiers and can't agree on a new conscription law. One prominent military historian expostulated, "Everywhere you go in Ukraine you see young men hanging around and not in uniform! Ukraine refuses to go all in."

    Russia produces anywhere between four and seven times more artillery shells than Ukraine. Ukraine's air defenses are exhausted as its old Soviet-era anti-aircraft missiles have been fired and NATO's stocks of Patriot missiles are dwindling.

    Russia has an inexhaustible supply of Soviet-era large bombs fitted with cheap guidance systems, fired accurately at Ukrainian targets from Russian aircraft standing 60 miles (96.5 kilometers) off. With five times Ukraine's population, Russia is winning the war of attrition.

    Another rapporteur at the weekend meeting denounced Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other European leaders for worrying too much about the "nuclear threshold" the point of escalation after which Russia might use nuclear weapons. He demanded that Germany supply its long-range Taurus cruise missile to Ukraine, with a 1,000-kilometer range and a two-stage warhead suitable for destroying major infrastructure.

    Senior German air force officers last month discussed using 20 of the Taurus missiles to destroy the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to the Russian mainland, in a conversation covertly recorded and published by Russian media. The conversation also revealed the presence of hundreds of British and other NATO personnel on the ground in Ukraine.

    Taking the war to Russia's homeland and destroying major infrastructure is one way to transform the proxy war with Ukraine into a general European war. Another is to deploy NATO soldiers in Ukraine, something that French President Emmanuel Macron has broached (but almost certainly does not intend to do).
    Remarkably, not a word was said about a possible negotiated solution to the conflict. Any negotiated outcome at this juncture would award Russia the Eastern Ukrainian oblasts that it has annexed and probably give Russia a buffer zone reaching to the east bank of the Dnieper River followed by a normalization of economic relations with Western Europe.

    Russia would emerge triumphant and American assets in Western Europe would be degraded. The impact on America's world standing would be devastating: As several attendees observed, Taiwan is watching carefully to see what happens to American proxies.

    The rules of the meeting prevent me from saying much more but I am free to report what I told the gathering: Sanctions against Russia have failed miserably because Russia had access to unlimited amounts of Chinese (as well as Indian and other) imports, both directly and through a host of intermediaries including Turkey and the former Soviet republics.
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    nortex97
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    10:23a, 3/26/24
    AG


    This is fine. Everything is fine.



    Is this new conscription law ever going to actually pass?





    Not another dime.
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    Stat Monitor Repairman
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    12:53a, 3/27/24


    Roughly 23-percent of all U.S. coal exports go through the Port of Baltimore.

    Russia is #3 coal exporter. Which of these countries might look to buy more Russian coal?
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    nortex97
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    4:42a, 3/27/24
    AG






    Pretty big update;

    Quote:
    Same goes for Nord Stream and many others. So why this pearl clutching by the Western commentariat that Ukraine would never resort to killing civilians?

    After all, just yesterday Ukraine's head of the SBU Vasyl Malyuk went on a long confession spree, "unofficially" admitting Ukraine's responsibility for killing Ilia Kiva, Vladlen Tatarsky, and others.

    And who can forget Ukraine's usage of an unwitting civilian 'suicide bomber' in their terror attack on the Kerch Bridge? By the way, the same Malyuk above also just admitted that the Kerch Bridge is no longer even used for military purposes:
    Quote:
    The U.S. and friends really, really, really want you to know it wasn't Ukraine who did the Moscow attacks, it was "ISIS". Anyone who has even a functionally adult understanding of how the world works will innately comprehend that Ukraine is behind the attack. Of course, it's possible it was one of its sponsors, the CIA or MI6but the fact that the CIA claimed to have warned Russia of an impending terror action seems to imply to me that Ukraine had gone rogue, and even the U.S. was not standing with their gravely overreaching gambits.

    It was just made known that the U.S. 'warned' Ukraine to stop provoking Russia by striking its energy facilities, remember? The U.S. has clearly diverged with its little pitbull on how to proceed further, as Biden's admin is becoming averse to the increasing risks of poking the nuclear Bear.

    Thus, it becomes quite plausible that the CIA attempted to warn Russia as a potentially indirect way of putting Ukraine off from the plan at the final hour. But desperate, bloodthirsty Zelensky will stop at nothing to appease his more occult masters, who operate through the unseen folds of the greater 'U.S.' apparatus.
    Here's one indepth theory as to how it likely really happened:
    Quote:
    According to the "subjective data" available to me, terrorists from among the citizens of Tajikistan fell under religious lessons conducted on the Internet (watch the video), which were the ideological instructions of the "Islamic State of Valayat Khorosan (IGVC)".

    Also, as I know, at least one of them was in a chat room called "Rahnamo ba Khuroson" (Rohnamo ba Khuroson).

    A citizen of Tajikistan, Salmon Khurosoni, was (and is) curating religious processing groups. It was Salmon Khurosoni who made the primary recruitment approach to Islamic terrorists.
    There is also information in certain circles that Khurosoni is an intermediate link between the Islamic State of Khorosan Wilayat (IGVC) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States.

    Despite the fact that the terrorists of the Islamic State do not promise financial rewards for their terrorist attacks, but promise eternal Paradise ... nevertheless, with the assistance of Salmon Khorosani, an amount of 500,000 rubles was approved, which was supposed to cover the costs of the attack.

    After that, the tasks and instructions in Turkey were already set by an emissary-mediator, who, presumably, is a staff member of a foreign special service (resident). And they, in turn, sent bayats (the oath of ISIS) to the same Salmon Khurosoni.

    Also, Ukraine was not the last link in their withdrawal plan. Another unidentified emissary of foreign intelligence, who is in Ukraine, was supposed to send them directly to Turkey, and then to Afghanistan.

    It is in Afghanistan that the alleged ideological (namely ideological, I'm not talking about the customer) leader of the terrorist attack in Moscow, Salmon Khurosoni, is located.
    In fact, we see the apotheosis of the development of hybrid terrorism, namely brand franchising one side aiming to strike at the other, resorts to the help of a third. Including on the basis when the performer is recruited under the third flag, that is, he thinks that he is fulfilling one will, when in reality there is another behind it.
    Read the final bolded part again.

    This is how modern hybrid warfare works. Each attack is different: there are some where Ukraine wants to have its footprint or responsibility publicly known as a direct message to Russia, as well as morale-boosting effort for its own audience. But there is another class of attack whose purpose is to destabilize Russia from the inside without acknowledging Ukraine's fingerprints on the action.
    It seems pretty blatantly clear at this point the attack was planned/funded by Ukraine.
    Quote:
    In this case, it was absolutely paramount that Ukraine had to utilize the services of a third partyso they hired some patsies through an intermediary with a convenient 'ISIS' link. But the timing is too ludicrous to believeit's akin to the CIA's 'best hits', like the farfetched gas attack Assad carried out just when he had broken the enemy's back and was winning the war. It's utterly unbelievable that just as Russia had dealt some unprecedented blows to Ukraine, including a massively crippling air attack, and just as MSM outlets were sputtering out reams of devastating headlines about Ukraine's impending collapse, ISIS just happens to decide to make a totally uncharacteristic attack in Moscow? You have to be infantilely credulous to believe such improbable coincidences.
    Quote:
    There are a few simple facts:
    1. First and the most important, these mercenaries did not declare ISIS goals and its ideology in any way during the action. They did not make any demands. They did not voice any statements.
    2. They followed a well-planned timing that allowed them to leave the scene of the crime before the Special Forces arrived. Then they tried to run away to Ukraine. Any ideological self-sacrifice was out of the question.
    3. They received money for the attack. Half of the amount was given to them before the terrorist attack, the other half is to be received after the evacuation.
    4. They did not commit suicide while being detained. They did not even try to do it. They just ran like rats. They did not even try to fight. They were all captured alive.
    And another expert opinion.
    That's not even to mention that the attackers were obviously caught heading to Ukraine, a fact now established with precise geolocation from on the ground videos:
    Russians advance; more at the link…
    Quote:
    Beneath the gimmicks, terror diversions, and misdirecting but pointless missile attacks on Crimea, Ukraine continues to retreat as Russia steamrolls forward, breaking through the AFU's lines:
    Forever war!
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    nortex97
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    5:51a, 3/28/24
    AG




    Ah, there it is again, the nato provocation.



    Report on the offensive/strikes.



    Quote:
    Ukrainian forces have reached a state of "stagnation" on the battlefield because the West is failing to provide Kiev with enough military equipment to make any substantial progress, President Vladimir Zelensky's top adviser has said.

    Speaking to NV Radio on Wednesday, Mikhail Podoliak complained that Kiev does not have enough resources to mount effective offensive actions that would undermine Russia.

    "In general, [there is] a slow supply of resources to Ukraine, slow decision-making on appropriate tools, a certain stagnation along the front line," he said, admitting that Kiev's forces are completely on the defensive in Russia's Donetsk, Lugansk and Zaporozhye regions.

    This stagnation, Podoliak argued, is due to inadequate Western sanctions, which he said are not strong enough to suffocate Russia's military industry. The other factor, he added, is insufficient arms supplies from the West. "[We are talking about] drones, munitions… and considerably ramping up investment in ammo production. We see that all this is moving slowly."
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    nortex97
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    4:48a, 3/29/24
    AG
    I guess Ukraine has just fallen off the radar for folks interests, fairly fully. I might drop to only updating a couple times a week as the war grinds into darkness;







    I think the Russians wanted to leave the infrastructure basically unharmed, intending to make rebuilding easier, but clearly the Ukrainians' attacks on Russian infrastructure have changed this calculus.





    Quote:
    Quote:
    Our source in the OP said that the energy system of Ukraine is destroyed by 50%, 2-3 more missile strikes and most citizens will not have electricity in the winter. The President's office has banned the publication of data in the media, so as not to sow panic in society, but the situation is critical, since the enemy is destroying not substations as in 2022, but thermal power plants and hydroelectric power stations.
    For the nuke power stations, it would be more a matter of knocking out substations and hitting them again when they are repaired if that's how far Russia intends to go.


    Orban crediting Trump as having had the best foreign policy/right answer to end this war makes a lot of sense, imho.

    The ISW continues to just be a clown show of propaganda from the MI6:

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    PlaneCrashGuy
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    In reply to nortex97 • 9:52a, 3/29/24
    AG
    nortex97 said:
    I guess Ukraine has just fallen off the radar for folks interests, fairly fully. I might drop to only updating a couple times a week as the war grinds into darkness;




    I think we've finally arrived where we always knew it would end up. I see no reason to change your schedule though.
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    4:17a, 3/30/24
    AG




    The Atlantic Council, Burisma, Bidens, and Ukraine. Hmmm….



    Quote:
    JEFFREY SACHS:

    "I know Macron; I know him personally.

    I know that in the past, he has said to me that NATO enlargement to Ukraine was the cause of this.

    I know that he knows better.

    I don't understand, for the life of me, what he thinks he's doing right now. Because if this is a political game to try to win votes, it is completely backfiring inside France.

    The last thing French people want is to die in Ukraine. This is the last thing they want to see leading to the Third World War, and so, he has not won any supportjust taunting across the precipice.

    Maybe it's just an incredible miscalculation.

    But for me, it's even stranger because I know him, and I have discussed the war with him.

    He has said to me that this is a war that was provoked by the NATO enlargement and that the NATO enlargement is absolutely a reason why we are in this conflict.

    But as of now, the opposite is said, so it makes you even more deeply annoyed when it's not just reading or hearing the nonsense, but in my case, knowing personally that this is completely contrary to what I have heard directly from President Macron in the past.

    And the reason I say all these things, you know, it's not a matter of bravery or anything else, except that I cannot stomach the childishness of this when the stakes are so damn high.

    It's as if they're playing a game. But it's not a game.

    Every day, thousands of Ukrainians are being killed; so many Russians are being killed, and the threat of escalation is at an all-time high.

    Positioning an election in the European Parliament and so forththese people need to grow up.

    The West has faked it for years and years because they know better than this, but they have this narrative.

    They tell lies, and the Crocus [Terror Attack] was just another part of the lies because, whatever the explanation, they're not telling the truth about what they know.

    They're not explaining anything."


    I dunno if Jeffrey Sachs will get a place in Trump's cabinet or not, but I could see it happening.



    What is the significance of the May 20th date Lavrov mentioned? I don't get it. Does some sort of emergency power expire on that date?



    Surprised Senator Lee posted this good thread;





    I recommend checking it out on x.

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    nortex97
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    4:46a, 3/31/24
    AG
    Ukraine; Washington's bellicose security client

    Quote:
    Having Ukraine as a de facto "ally" should make Washington increasingly uneasy. The United States has portrayed that country as a peaceful Western democracy striving to defend its territory and independence from an allegedly rapacious Russia. In his April 2 telephone call to Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President Joe Biden "affirmed the United States' unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia's ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea. He emphasized his administration's commitment to revitalize our strategic partnership in support of President Zelenskyy's plan to tackle corruption and implement a reform agenda based on our shared democratic values that delivers justice, security, and prosperity to the people of Ukraine."

    The key assumptions undergirding U.S. policy toward Ukraine are faulty. Burgeoning authoritarianism rather than a commitment to democracy marks Kiev's internal governance, and the country's foreign policy is alarmingly bellicose toward its much larger, more powerful neighbor. Ukraine is both an unworthy and dangerous partner for the United States.

    Zelenskyy's government not only has perpetuated the pervasive corruption that has plagued Ukraine since independence, but it is also intensifying policies that undermine basic civil liberties. Zelenskyy and his supporters contend that restrictive measures are needed to thwart Russia's subversion efforts, but targets now include classical liberal factions that have no plausible connection to the Kremlin. U.S. leaders face the prospect of backing a thinly disguised autocracy rather than a democratic government.

    Although Ukraine's domestic trends are troubling, far more worrisome is the leadership's jingoistic rhetoric and policy positions regarding Kiev's relations with Moscow. That development should be more than a matter of academic concern for the United States. Even though Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and Congress never has been asked to approve any agreement (much less a formal treaty requiring a two-thirds vote of the Senate) by treating Kiev as an official U.S. ally, American officials clearly regard the country as an important political and security partner. The Trump and Biden administrations have approved multiple arms sales to Kiev, U.S. personnel have trained Ukrainian troops, and U.S. forces (along with units from other NATO countries) have conducted joint military exercises (war games), with their Ukrainian counterparts on several occasions. In short, U.S. leaders treat Ukraine as a full-fledged, albeit de facto, ally)

    However, Kiev is not really an ally; it is a weak U.S. security dependent that has markedly hostile relations with Russia. But Ukraine's leaders are not deterred by their country's military limitations. In late August, Ukraine held its first military parade in several years, celebrating the 30th anniversary of its independence, and declared that it would reclaim both Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and territories in the eastern Donbas region that are under the control of Kremlin-backed separatists. The country's official defense strategy document adopted in March explicitly includes those goals.

    Moreover, the objective appears to be more than rhetorical. In the spring of 2021, Kiev began to deploy troops and tanks near Crimea for military drills. Russia responded with some large-scale troop movements of its own, and a military crisis that had the potential to embroil the United States and NATO simmered. Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed and both sides began to back down, but Crimea and the adjacent area remain worrisome flashpoints.

    Ukraine is engaging in such behavior while expecting the United States and NATO to back its bid. In August, Zelenskyy spoke at the inaugural summit of the "Crimea Platform," a meeting of representatives from forty-six countries that Kiev had orchestrated to generate greater international pressure on Russia. The emphasis at the summit was on increased diplomatic support for Ukraine, accompanied by tougher sanctions against Russia, to compel Moscow to reverse its annexation of Crimea. But the Ukrainian leader argued that it was also a security issue. He asserted that "the occupation of Crimea calls into question the effectiveness of the entire international security system…"






    I guess Europe is not really ramping up defense procurement all that much;





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    YouBet
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    In reply to nortex97 • 11:10a, 3/31/24
    AG
    What is the context of the $400M mishap? Lost it? Went to wrong party? 10% for the big guy?
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    nortex97
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    In reply to YouBet • 11:17a, 3/31/24
    AG
    They claim it was just an 'oopsie' related to their ERP system where they messed up and sent an extra $400 million. Seriously.

    Quote:
    The US Navy "did not have adequate internal controls to prevent overexecution" of allocated funds, the department's watchdog has said.

    The US Navy has overspent hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to Ukraine due to recurring accounting errors, according to a Pentagon watchdog's report that warned the service branch may not have the funds to cover the shortfall next time.

    The report released on Tuesday by the US Department of Defense Office of Inspector General (OIG) stated that "the Navy overexecuted its funding three times during fiscal year 2022" when it came to Ukraine supplemental assistance.

    While the US Navy appropriated around $1.7 billion in funds to Ukraine, the watchdog found that the branch "overexecuted its allotment of Ukraine assistance funds… totaling $398.9 million." The overspending was due to the Navy's failure to address long-standing problems with its automated accounting system.

    As a result, accounting errors had to be corrected manually on several occasions, leading the OIG to stress that "the Navy did not have adequate internal controls to prevent over-execution of funds from reoccurring." It added that the military branch also focused on identifying errors after they had already taken place, rather than preventing them.

    The OIG warned that while the Navy had resources to cover the difference, "such funds may not be available in the future."
    No worries, they are on it though, now, and promise to wind up the investigation/have fixes in place by 2028.
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    YouBet
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    In reply to nortex97 • 5:10p, 3/31/24
    AG

    Good lord. I remember all the people brushing off that we shouldn't worry about the lack of oversight or controls around this. No big deal! Just hundreds of millions over.

    Rand called it.
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