Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

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nortex97
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In reply to YouBet • 7:51p, 3/31/24
AG
Yes the intense effort to refuse any accountability for funds as we just couldn't possibly have people there tracking what was going where was one of the plethora of clues around the ongoing corruption/lies about our 'aid for Ukrainians.'



Nothing will change the picture now, tactically or strategically.

Even if enough rino's retire to pass some sort of multi-billion dollar aid package it won't shift the actual battlefield.



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nortex97
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4:34a, 4/1/24
AG


Wow. Demanding the extradition of the SBU head could change the calculus toward allowing the Ukraine regime to remain in a future negotiated end-state to the war.









It's weird to me that the swamp seems to be ramping up further again with respect to Russian propaganda:







Anyway, that's all for now. Morning, folks.
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nortex97
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5:02a, 4/1/24
AG
Good update, hadn't checked my email yet. I think we have some readers/lurkers who have at times questioned if the Russian military was being degraded or improved/grown stronger in this proxy war. The answer is (still) clearly the latter;

Quote:
Mr. Baud eloquently corroborates the Russian holistic approach to war, noting that it has not changed much since Soviet times. In his estimations, it is a very methodical and analytical approach, but also onealmost contradictorilytreated and studied as an art form, thus the moniker 'Operational Art'.

His most paradigm-breaking assessments revolve around how Russia approaches the planning of wars around a strategic and operational framework, whereas the West sort of rudderlessly flounders "in the moment", and has exhibited little conception of military operations beyond the tactical. Elucidating points include Baud's explanation of the West's actions in various African and MidEast theaters as just guys going around shooting guns, with little strategic depth or focus on end goals beyond that.

Of course, he may or may not miss the fact that this is to some extents by design, in the spirit of the famous quips about America's MidEast wars not being fought to be won, but rather to make money for defense contractors. But whatever the actual originating reason is, it doesn't dismiss the fact that the West's strategic and operational sense for the battlefield has likely well atrophied as a result. Whether you're doing something 'intentionally' or not, if you do it long enough, you will degrade your institutional ability to operate otherwise.

The only thing to the contrary I'll say, in the effort of tempering any wild flights of exaggeration to one extreme or the other, is that things are not as clear cut and uniform as simply: "Russia is the best, West is totally clueless."

We know there are gradations of each on both sides. There are some Russian generals that make even modern Western generals look like Napoleon, and the war has revealed some incredibly deep corrosion within segments of the Russian Armed Forces. We've seen endless blunders and miscalculations from Russian forces at every tier of command, and there are many gaps and blind spots in the Russian approach to war. No one has the one-size-fits-all perfect systemif they did, that country would likely rule the world unchallenged.

But it's in the cumulative sense of the armed forces as a whole, living, breathing organism, we can say without too much exaggeration that in the current historical frame, Russia appears to much better grasp the most fundamental and important precepts of winning real wars compared to the West. We see this categorically demonstrated, for example, in the Russian vision of warfare consistently winning out and being proven superior over the approach of the West in the SMO.

For instance, the West's philosophy of concentrating on prestige, precision systems for 'surgical' victories has now undoubtedly been trumped by Russia's revival of the conventional 'mass production war'.
In the clash of philosophies in armor, Russia's approach to its tanks has likewise seemingly proven its superiority as Western tanks are now roundly deemed inadequate for modern peer combat. Same goes for many other advanced and expensive weapons systems.

In the clash of organizational philosophies it may be less clear, but the long-celebrated Western approach to NCO-heavy "small unit leadership" has clearly not shown advantage over Russia's putatively more 'centralized' force structure.

Clearest of all, of course, has been the question of strategic and operational approach. I've written before how the Western-led Ukrainian forces have not once been able to envelop Russians in a single cauldron. Meanwhile, Russian generals somehow continually manage to entrap the NATO proxy force in cauldrons in virtually every major battle, leading to incalculably disproportionate losses.

So that is all to say that, while the differences aren't as clear cut as Mr. Baud's passionate appeal may suggest, it's safe to say that the general cut of his comparisons is overall quite accurate. And truth be told, it will likely only get more accurate as time progresses. That's because the Russian forces are learning and only improving their storied knowledge and strategic culture, while in the West the pillars of this knowledge are being torn down on a daily basis, replaced with DEI indoctrination and other distractingly degrading modern contrivances.


5th fastest growing G20 economy;



Ok, now I finally figured out the May 20th issue. That is when Zelensky's term expires:




There's so much propaganda and 'disinformation' out there, it's no wonder so many fall for it.

Rheinmetall CEO: If Trump is re-elected Europe needs to be able to stand on its own. Sounds good to me.
Quote:
Washington has sent a clear message to European NATO members that they can no longer rely on its military protection, the head of German defense giant Rheinmetall has argued.

For decades, the EU has been taking for granted that the US would come to its rescue in case of war, but "that will no longer happen," CEO Armin Papperger told The Financial Times. He cited the failure of the US Congress to approve continued military assistance to Ukraine as a signal to Europe that the Americans are not willing to pay for its security.

The US is treaty-obligated to consider an attack on any NATO member as an attack on itself. The commitment has been put into question by former President Donald Trump, who has argued that US protection should be conditional on the other nations meeting their military spending obligations, and claimed he said as much to a European leader while in office. President Joe Biden has denounced the remarks as "dangerous" and "un-American".
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PlaneCrashGuy
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6:59a, 4/1/24
AG
And US aid isn't coming.
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YouBet
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:40p, 4/1/24
AG
Crimea is under siege? Is that Hodges guy playing an Aprils Fool joke or just being contrarian?

That seems like a laughable take at best. If there is one region that won't be lost by Russia it's Crimea. Never mind reports from most other factions that Ukraine is on its heels at least currently.
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nortex97
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In reply to YouBet • 4:53a, 4/2/24
AG
Yeah he has been funny at best throughout the conflict. The definition of a 'war pimp:'





48 RU vehicle losses in some attack were claimed by Ukraine? LOL, sure, typical lies.





2 wounded when this little A-22 hit a dorm next to a shahed drone plant;







A skeptic has an unlocked post up which basically provides a weekly summary of events;

Quote:
Over the week, the RFAF carried out 58 strikes with high-precision weapons, including Zircon hypersonic missiles and Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, as well as drones, against military installations in #Ukraine and the infrastructure supporting them, the RF MoD said;
Shoygu checked the progress of the state defence order by military-industrial complex enterprises in the Altay Territory and called on them to "plow in three shifts," MoD reported. The enterprise head reported to him that since 2022, the plant's output has increased by 3.5 times. Shoygu demanded that issues related to the reconstruction of defence enterprises in the Altay Territory be resolved and organisations that miss deadlines be held accountable;
Air defences destroyed several AFU drones over the #Belgorod region during the day. Gladkov stated that the AFU attacked the region more than 50 times over the day, 1 civilian was killed, 4 were injured, incl. a child;
RFAF destroyed a location of Ukrainian militants in the #Kharkov region by a 2 Iskander strike.
Zelensky said that #US long-range ATACMS "are not yet on the territory of #Ukraine," but he would like to use them to attack airfields in #Crimea;
He for the first time allowed negotiations with #Russia without the idea of #Ukraine reaching the 1991 borders. He stated that the RF would be "ready for dialogue" if #Ukraine could reach the 2022 borders before the SMO start;
Peskov said that the borders have changed, and everyone will have to reckon with the fact that the RF has four new subjects.

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nortex97
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6:04a, 4/2/24
AG
Long form discussion of the electrical grid/production challenges Ukraine faces.

Quote:
"Updated data on the state of thermal power plants in Ukraine. In 2021, Ukraine controlled 13 thermal power plants (formerly GRES) with a total installed capacity of approximately 22.3 GW. During the fighting, 4 thermal power plants with a total installed capacity of approximately 6.7 GW came under the control of the Russian Federation.

The damaged Kurakhovskaya TPP in the frontline zone 1.4 GW - has been completely stopped. A representative of DTEK said that on March 22, 2024, the Burshtyn and Ladyzhinskaya TPPs were completely destroyed 2.3 and 1.8 GW, respectively, and Centrenergo reported the complete destruction of the Zmievskaya TPP another 2.2 GW. Thus, Ukraine has lost at least 14.5 GW of the thermal power plants that operated in 2021. At the moment, the extent of damage is unclear to at least two more thermal power plants which have come under attack Pridneprovskaya and Krivoy Rog. Accordingly, 9 thermal power plants remaining under Ukrainian control, include 4 destroyed, 2 at least damaged, and 3 thermal power plants that are probably unaffected. The total installed capacity of 5 'conditionally alive' is about 7.8 GW, but most likely much less, taking into account strikes at the Pridneprovskaya and Krivoy Rog thermal power plants."

What is left of Ukraine's energy system at the moment, and what can survive if the intensity of the Russian campaign is sustained for several more weeks?

According to Rozhin, as of Sunday night, "most of Ukraine depends on four main energy sources: South Ukrainian NPP, Kyiv power plant, Vinnitsa 750 kV and Moldovan transit. The total generation is about 8 GW, but even this does not supply all the need for energy, so now the weather is of great importance for the enemy for the production of alternative energy (solar, wind)."

"The sweetest targets", Readovka.ru reported on March 30, "are the high-voltage substations of 750/330 kV, as well as the border substations through which the energy transfer from the EU goes. First of all, we are talking about the Zapadnoukrainskaya substation in the Lvov region."

"There are a total of 141 transmission substations in the Ukraine," the western military engineer source notes. "It's not at all outside of the Russian capacity to destroy them. Nor is it outside of their capacity to destroy the transmission towers, short-circuit the lines, screw up the synchronization equipment, and so on."

The Ukrainian media and press releases from the DTEK utility confirm the vulnerability, especially as the country approaches the June-July period of maximum summer power consumption. Rolling blackouts are being imposed, then lifted, then reimposed, according to the announcements to domestic consumers. This means that the utilities and repair engineers are finding it increasingly difficult to keep up with the pace of the attacks.

In Kharkov, for example, the current rolling blackouts of four hours or more mean that food will be spoiling in refrigerators, telephones will be dead, the internet will be down, and services will seize up. Once the liquid fuel stocks dwindle these are also under parallel attack the emergency generators will stop running, such food as there is will rot in the grocery stores.

This is a type of siege by electricity. The Kiev regime will be unable to reinforce or resupply the eastern cities, and there will be no Russian ground advance; no Mariupol, Bakhmut or Avdeyevka battles; no electricity until capitulation.

The military sources on whom the milbloggers rely also warn: "Yes, the damage is more than serious," according to Rozhin, "but you should not accept on faith all the statements of the enemy about the damage received, since it is beneficial for him to overestimate the damage and foster the impression on our side that the work has been done and so we will not finish off those targets which have already received serious damage, but can be restored."

The electric war is an operation to bypass the cities which the Ukrainians and their US and NATO military staffs believe will soon be targets for direct Russian attack. The lines of fortification look like this:
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notex
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9:35a, 4/2/24
AG
Russia's billionaires, as discussed many times, just keep getting much richer during this war;

Quote:
LONDON, April 2 (Reuters) - Russia's richest people added $72 billion to their fortunes over the past year, taking their collective wealth to $577 billion, Forbes said on Tuesday, with Vagit Alekperov, former president of oil major Lukoil, taking Russia's top spot.

In 2021, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Forbes had estimated the total wealth of Russian billionaires at $606 billion. High commodity prices in the past two years and Russia's war-focused economic growth stifling the impact of Western sanctions have aided a recovery towards that figure.

Many Russian billionaires fell under Western sanctions as the West sought to punish President Vladimir Putin and those deemed close to him for launching the war in Ukraine. Their total wealth dropped to $353 billion in 2022.

Alekperov's fortune rose to $28.6 billion from $20.5 billion over the past year, Forbes said. He took first place in Russia from now seventh-placed Andrei Melnichenko, who made his fortune in fertilisers and whose worth fell to $21.1 billion from $25.2 billion.

Leonid Mikhelson, the head of Russian natural gas producer Novatek, was listed in second place by Forbes, with his wealth increasing by $5.8 billion to $27.4 billion.
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nortex97
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5:49a, 4/3/24
AG
Can't run the risk of those pesky voters shutting down a forever war:



The globalist/WEF blob consolidates power within Nato countries further and further. The proxy war in Ukraine is one tool/narrative/predicate in the box:









With Xiden trailing in the polls the operative question will be what new Russia claims will emerge as a crisis for Americans?

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FJB24
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11:13a, 4/3/24
Quote:
Russia says thousands have enlisted since the Moscow concert hall attack

The Russian Defense Ministry said on Wednesday that it had recorded a significant increase in the number of Russians signing up for military service this year, and especially since the attack on a concert hall in Moscow in March.

Since the start of the year, it claims that "more than 100,000 people" have enrolled in the Armed Forces, with "about 16,000" signing up to take part in the "special military operation" in the last ten days alone, the ministry said on social media platform Telegram.

"During interviews held over the past week at recruitment points in Russian cities, most candidates indicated a desire to avenge the victims of the tragedy that occurred on March 22, 2024 in the Moscowregion as their main motivation to sign a contract," read a ministry statement, indirectly implicating Ukrainein the recent Crocus City Hall terrorist attack which left 144 concert-goers dead.

Kyiv has emphatically denied any involvement in the massacre, responsibility for which has been claimed by the so-called Islamic State. The suggestion from Russian President Vladimir Putin that the terrorists were planning to escape to Ukraine was contradicted by Moscow's own ally, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

According to the statement, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said the Russian Army plans to form fourteen new divisions by the end of 2024.

While Russia's reports on the boost to military enlistment could not be independently verified, Ukraine has also warned that Russian forces are building up ahead of an expected offensive push later this year.
mf/ab (AFP, Reuters, dpa, AP)
Yet another backfire from the Crocus attack.
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J. Walter Weatherman
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In reply to FJB24 • 11:44a, 4/3/24
Sotero-Judges said:
Quote:
Russia says thousands have enlisted since the Moscow concert hall attack

The Russian Defense Ministry said on Wednesday that it had recorded a significant increase in the number of Russians signing up for military service this year, and especially since the attack on a concert hall in Moscow in March.

Since the start of the year, it claims that "more than 100,000 people" have enrolled in the Armed Forces, with "about 16,000" signing up to take part in the "special military operation" in the last ten days alone, the ministry said on social media platform Telegram.

"During interviews held over the past week at recruitment points in Russian cities, most candidates indicated a desire to avenge the victims of the tragedy that occurred on March 22, 2024 in the Moscowregion as their main motivation to sign a contract," read a ministry statement, indirectly implicating Ukrainein the recent Crocus City Hall terrorist attack which left 144 concert-goers dead.

Kyiv has emphatically denied any involvement in the massacre, responsibility for which has been claimed by the so-called Islamic State. The suggestion from Russian President Vladimir Putin that the terrorists were planning to escape to Ukraine was contradicted by Moscow's own ally, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

According to the statement, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said the Russian Army plans to form fourteen new divisions by the end of 2024.

While Russia's reports on the boost to military enlistment could not be independently verified, Ukraine has also warned that Russian forces are building up ahead of an expected offensive push later this year.
mf/ab (AFP, Reuters, dpa, AP)
Yet another backfire from the Crocus attack.


Why would ISIS care about Russian troop enlistments?
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Stat Monitor Repairman
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12:00p, 4/3/24
Latest guy that Rogan had on just got back from Ukraine and describes what he saw and the conditions there day-to-day. Worth a listen. Clip will be posted at some point.
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Dirt 05
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12:22p, 4/3/24
AG
It's odd that after 2 years of Russia getting stronger by the day and having manned armed forces with 1mm more personnel at the start of the war that they haven't pushed to the borders of Poland, Moldova, and Romania. And, with 2/3's of the world supporting them(?) the CTSO is somehow down from 9 to 6 members and two of those, Armenia and Kazakhstan not willing to play ball.

I've thought of this conflict from another perspective- and what if another super power had invaded a country on their border where a common language was spoken but were of vastly different military capabilities.

The US and Canada come to mind. So in 2014 the US would have occupied Vancouver Island and the city of Vancouver itself (similar to Crimea/Sevastopol). But then in 2022 Mad Uncle Joe gets really pissed at Trudeau. He sends 101st and 82nd US Airborn divisions to take the Capitol of Ottawa (similar to VDV & Kiev) and they are reduced to combat ineffective forces and withdraw back to the US border. But it's a minor setback with a feint anyways, and these things happen when fighting a smaller adversary and Mad Joe is a strategic genius so he also sent an armored thrust to take Toronto (40 miles from Buffalo) and the 1st Armored Cav division was also rendered combat ineffective and withdraws to US borders (similar to Kharkiv & 1st guards tank army). We don't talk about, but acknowledge the dastardly Canucks destroyed one of our submarines in Bangor, Washington along with the flagship of US Third fleet, a couple of destroyers, and a few more amphibious landing ships, but now that we've rebased most of the fleet out of range of their (checks notes, robot controlled explosive dingys?) we are still able to launch our dwindling supply of tomahawks at their power plants and hydroelectric dams. We had some success north of Vermont and New Hampshire, and even captured Quebec…. For a while, until supply lines over the St Lawrence river were pummeled and we withdrew back across it (Kherson). We attacked St. Newfoundland and occupy most of the province even the port of St. John with a population over 100,000, though we had to level it to the ground along with its industrial capacity and it took quite a while with high casualties (Mariupol/Zap. Oblast). Somehow the Canadian Air Force continues to be able to sortie and Uncle Joe's supporters in the O&G industry are really upset that their refineries are being attacked by drones successfully. Finally our war of attrition has started to gain momentum, 450 sq miles this year! Though we are having to source ammunition from North Korea and hahaha those stupid Russians have spent 4% of their annual military spending trying to help out the Canadians. Also, now Mexico has joined the CTSO (Sweden/Norway&NATO). Still, Uncle Joe will surely go down as one of our greatest leaders after it's all said and done, and there totally won't be an internal mob war to select a successor when he dies.


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nortex97
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In reply to Dirt 05 • 12:23p, 4/3/24
AG
Holy word wall of metaphors/hypotheticals, bat man.
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Teslag
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In reply to Dirt 05 • 12:40p, 4/3/24
AG

Quote:
It's odd that after 2 years of Russia getting stronger by the day and having manned armed forces with 1mm more personnel at the start of the war that they haven't pushed to the borders of Poland, Moldova, and Romania.

In 2 years they can't even get within 250 miles of Kiev this point.
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nortex97
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1:21p, 4/3/24
AG

Quote:
Zelensky's allies are increasingly afraid that the summer offensive of the Russian army will break through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, - Bloomberg

The influx of Western military aid to Kiev has sharply decreased, and some Ukrainian Armed Forces guns fire only one salvo a day to conserve dwindling supplies.
"We know that the Russian military industry works in 3 shifts, and supplies to Ukraine are rapidly declining. Without our support, she may even lose," Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told Bloomberg.
Russian strikes also damage Ukrainian infrastructure. One official called the damage in recent weeks the worst seen in the conflict and predicted long-term strategic consequences that would only worsen the effects of the ammunition shortage.
Also today, Politico wrote that Ukraine faces a "serious catastrophe" on the battlefield and the collapse of the front, even if the US Congress unblocks aid to Kiev.



The loan this month and half dozen F-16's this summer will have zero impact.



Desperation;



Honestly, these would be better suited (with cope cages etc) to the Ukrainian army/theater than what has been sent from Germany/US etc. so far. Simple, robust, pretty easily maintained/easy to train kids on:

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Stat Monitor Repairman
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:35p, 4/3/24
nortex97 said:
Russia / Ukraine ... brought to you by ... Ritchie Bros.gov

Have obsolete hardware taking up space in your back 40? Send your obsolete military hardware to Ukraine. operators standing by.
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nortex97
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In reply to Stat Monitor Repairman • 1:51p, 4/3/24
AG
I know, I know, but "we" could fund/equip/train 50+ of these lighter, simple tanks in a hurry, compared to more challenger/leopard/abrams PR shenanigans. There aren't that many older T-series tanks to send to Ukraine from old Warsaw pact inventories at this point.

In a defensive battle this would imho make a lot of sense, if, at least, it were true the Russians were/are using 'meat' offensives and ancient T-72/T-62 etc. tanks to advance.

To the last Ukrainian, and all that…
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nortex97
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6:26a, 4/4/24
AG
Meh, I slept in today, sorry everyone. Big updates;


It's a mistake to think the upcoming 'aid' bill (voting was cancelled by Johnson again, probably a few weeks out still) to extend the war on the Ukrainian population will actually impact the battlefield, imho.

Quote:
What he's saying is that, even if the $60B were to pass, U.S. has little of actual value to send to Ukraine beyond small arms munitions and things of that nature. There are no more surplus Bradleys left, and none can be built as the factory closed down decades ago.

Yet Ukraine hinges their entire future on this mythologized support as if it's some kind of instant videogame-like upgrade, a "power-up" that will immediately re-energize and supercharge the AFUthis is simply not the case.

It appears, instead, that Zelensky merely wants this aid package as a morale boost to continue buying more time for himself and his army, staving off collapse. The aid would obviously signal U.S. support being back on the table, rather than totally sloughing off as has been the case, optically.
The Politico piece goes on:
Quote:
And according to high-ranking Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valery Zaluzhny the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces until he was replaced in February the military picture is grim.

The officers said there's a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to a much greater weight in numbers and the guided aerial bombs that have been smashing Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to "penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts," they said.
They spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely.

"There's nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don't have those technologies, and the West doesn't have them as well in sufficient numbers," one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO.
Read the highlighted parts very carefully, particularly the last paragraph. High-ranking military officers secretly told Politico under anonymity that: "There's nothing that can help Ukraine…the West doesn't have the technologies in sufficient numbers."

This comes back precisely to my point above about the big glamorized $60B "salvation" fund.
Read my lips, it's quite simple: Ukraine has literally no chance whatsoever to do anything militarily in this war anymore. Ukraine and Zelensky's only shot at survival is to push Russia into a confrontation with NATO. They are desperately attempting to do this each day by launching mass terror attacks all over Russia.

The latest occurred yesterday on Yelabuga, where Ukraine literally crashed a giant Cessna-like plane into a dormitory full of students that they claimed was a drone factory…

The problem is, not only is it obvious from the videos and photos that this is a dormitory:


While Russia is crushing the Ukrainian Armed Forces' combat potential on the actual battlefield, desperate Zelensky is hiring "ISIS" to massacre Russian civilians, attacking Belgorod highrises with drones and artillery, and is literally loading up Cessnas with bombs and flying them into buildings with African exchange studentsthat's the stage his putrid terrorist regime is now at.
Exactly, and it's not just the US. Europe is much worse off;



And even the British intel propagandists admit Russia is recruiting 30K a month now;


The Weekly Standard:
Quote:
The above article starts off with an even grimmer portrait:
Quote:
There is a growing understanding across the Western allies that Ukraine is losing the ground war against Russia, and by summer could face defeat.
Russia is pounding front lines with artillery, rocket and drone fire and at over five times the rate the Ukrainian army can reply. Volodymyr Zelensky's troops are exhausted after sustaining in some sectors a heavier concentration of incoming artillery than at the Somme in 1916, or the Normandy Bocage after D-Day in 1944.
It goes on to sketch the dire situation of the West's own armaments:
Quote:
The Western response has been patchy to the prospect of a Russian breakthrough within weeks. Artillery stocks, even for their own arsenals in the cases of Britain, Germany and the US, will not be replenished fully for another two years. Germany has increased defence spending but refuses to send game-changing weapons like the Taurus missile.
Interestingly, ignoring their laughably fake Russian numbers, they appear to make quite an admission on Ukraine's losses:
Quote:
Already he (Putin) has lost 405,000 in two years of combat, and with 1.3 million committed to the war with the prospect of calling up a further 1.5 million by 2027. Ukraine has lost about 385,000.
Anyway, more at the link, as they say.



Narrative heretic claiming victory;






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nortex97
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5:23a, 4/5/24
AG








More evidence;



I guess the Ukrainians launched a drone strike on the main SU-34 base, which is tactically smart, and managed to destroy one. Surely a lot of propaganda about wiping out the whole fleet will be all over the interwebs;





Sorry lady/comrade, it's called a forever war for a reason.
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FJB24
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7:45a, 4/5/24
Some actually love this thread.

RT:
Quote:
The Russian military intercepted more than 50 drones overnight, including 44 over Rostov Region, the Defense Ministry reported on Friday morning. Local officials said an electric substation was damaged during the Ukrainian raid.

The attack happened in the Morozovsk district of Rostov Region, which is located some 190km west of the administrative center, Rostov-on-Don, Governor Vasily Golubev said on Friday. The region is located closer to the front line.

According to the ministry, air defenses also engaged Ukrainian unmanned aircraft over Saratov, Kursk and Belgorod regions, with a single drone intercepted over each. Six more were intercepted over Krasnodar Region.

The head of Saratov Region, Roman Busargin, reported that the city of Engels, which hosts a major air base, had come under attack. No damage was caused, he said.
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docb
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:55a, 4/5/24
AG
nortex97 said:








More evidence;



I guess the Ukrainians launched a drone strike on the main SU-34 base, which is tactically smart, and managed to destroy one. Surely a lot of propaganda about wiping out the whole fleet will be all over the interwebs;





Sorry lady/comrade, it's called a forever war for a reason.
Just more Nortex propaganda
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8:20a, 4/5/24
AG






The chirping is giving me a good chuckle this am on this one.
Quote:
Russia has downed 53 Ukrainian drones, the majority of which targeted the southern Rostov region, the Ministry of Defence said, as the Kremlin warned that Russia and NATO are now in "direct confrontation" over Ukraine.

The ministry said that "terrorist attacks with aerial drones" overnight and on Friday morning were foiled, adding that 44 of them were downed or intercepted in Rostov, where Russia's Ukraine campaign headquarters is located.

Vasily Golubev, the governor of Rostov, confirmed early on Friday that air defence units had destroyed more than 40 airborne targets, though an electricity substation was damaged.

Writing on the Telegram messaging app, he said the drone attacks had focused on the Morozovsk district, northeast of Rostov, which lies on Ukraine's eastern border. Golubev said work was under way to restore power supplies in the affected areas.

Russian state news agency RIA reported that one drone was downed in the Saratov region, where an airbase for Russian strategic bombers is located.

Other drones were downed over the Kursk, Belgorod and Krasnodar regions, RIA reported, citing the Defence Ministry. There were no reports of casualties.

Ukraine has for months launched drone attacks on several border regions as it tries to push back Russia's advancing forces.
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docb
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:53a, 4/5/24
AG
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-nato-news-b2523774.html

You can chirp on this
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In reply to docb • 4:46p, 4/5/24
AG
That's Ukrainian propaganda, so I will just ignore it. Thx for keeping up with the thread though.

Chasiv Yar seems poised to be the next 'stronghold' to fall.
Quote:
A rapid Russian advance on Chasiv Yar, a heavily fortified town with a pre-war population of 12,200 situated west of the ruined, Russian-occupied city of Bakhmut, would be a grim setback for Kyiv.
Russia controls around 18% of Ukrainian territory and has stepped up its long-range strikes on energy infrastructure in recent weeks, causing large-scale outages.

Russia's RIA news agency cited an official as saying Russian troops had entered the suburbs of the town, which Moscow sees as an important staging point for Kyiv's troops.

Andriy Zadubinnyi, spokesman for Ukraine's eastern military command said the report was untrue and that fighting continued. He told Reuters the situation was "tense".

On Thursday, Serhiy Chaus, the mayor, said the situation in Chasiv Yar was at its most difficult since Russia began its full-scale invasion more than two years ago, in comments broadcast by the Espreso TV channel.
More;

Quote:
Mykola Bielieskov, a military analyst and government adviser at Kyiv think tank the National Institute for Strategic Studies, said Russia would continue to make gains unless Ukraine's allies supplied more support.

"The situation on the map is the function of the munitions supply issue," he told i.
"Until the acute Ukrainian deficit is addressed properly there will be reports that Russia is moving incrementally [forward]."

"I don't know how many warnings are necessary," he added, suggesting that the loss of Avdiivka in February should have been a spur to action from Ukraine's supporters.

Dr Marina Miron, of the defence studies department at King's College London, said Russia could repeat its tactics in Avdiivka to take Chasiv Yar.

"I don't expect a frontal assault because the Russians are reporting that it's mined so they have to be careful moving forward," she said. "I think they will try to surround it."

Russian forces are advancing along several lines ahead of a larger offensive, seeking to improve their positions and searching for weaknesses, the analyst said.

"Ukrainian forces are trying to resist but it is becoming increasingly difficult," said Dr Miron.

"The Russian offensive hasn't started yet. They are probing to see if the front might collapse."
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6:33a, 4/6/24
AG
About right, but it's been happening since the 'spring offensive' failed miserably;



Indeed, some of us have noted the long term alliance/benefit of the push for this war to China and Russia (especially for their ruling class of oligarchs);



Propaganda and attacks on civilians, by the 'good guys:'



The Russians launched a bunch more missiles/drones etc., and the Ukrainians claim to have shot them all down. On the attacks that supposedly took out '6 or more Su-34's' and a Bear:








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6:57a, 4/7/24
AG
Big update today relative to various articles/policies around calls for Nato intervention in Ukraine;



Quote:
The article sneakily disguises a call for NATO to assume control of everything West of the Dnieper River by couching it as merely providing air cover. The author thinks NATO should defend all Ukrainian cities west of the Dnieper with actual NATO troops and air defense systems. He argues this isn't much of a threat to Russia as they would only be shooting down Russian missiles and unmanned systems and not killing Russian pilots, who do not stray beyond the Dnieper.

In many ways, all such recent calls appear to be disguised attemptsin one form or anotherof floating the trial balloon of Ukrainian partition. Why are they going about it this way? Because to outright say the word partition would be a devastatingly demoralizing blow to Ukraine, and would be rejected straightaway by Zelensky and co. But to first slip the idea in subtly and diplomatically, they've dressed it up as some heroic act of loyalty and allegiance, when in reality you can hear the burbles of talks growing louder recently about the inevitability of partition being the only realistic solution.

Recall I had already reported that once again, a new NATO summit this summer aims to dangle membership in front of Zelenskyjust as they did last summerand this time there's rumors increasingly heavier 'hints' will be imparted about parting out Ukraine in exchange for such promises. We wrote when Macron first floated French deployment that part of the reasoning could be to merely secure the Dnieper to force a Korean style DMZ partition onto a recalcitrant Putin. In some ways it would be a perfect crowning 'victory' for NATO, which would allow them to sell it as their having stopped Putin in his tracks without firing a shot.

This common thread plays into what I wrote last time about the rumored 'October Surprise', where Ukraine could declare its new borders without Donbass. It seems a lot of movements appear to be heading toward this NATO-backed attempt to strongarm Russia into a DMZ. When would it happen? Precisely when Russian forces begin "breaking through" Ukrainian lines in force, presumably if and when Russia launches the much heavier offensives everyone expects in a few months.

But what's important to note, is that no one country wants to be left to take the brunt of the Bear's retaliation alone; nor even two or three of them together. That means such an action would likely only occur if a coalition of scaredy-cats was formed, and the chances of that are not great.

Quote:
There's one interesting observation about the above, second article, from which I posted the artillery shell graphic. It notes how the West is unable to ignite the manufacturing prowess necessary to compete with Russia.

One thing it made me realize is that most people seem to take Ukraine's 155mm shell sustenance as a kind of "given" even if the much-hyped U.S. funding doesn't materialize. The article mentions how the U.S. currently produces 28,000 shells per month even at full capacity, 24-hour operation of its factories. However, there are plans to allegedly open another factorya General Dynamics Ordnance plant in Garland, Texaswhich, last I heardis 'stuck' in development with a pending 'environmental review', which is likely a legalese way for someone in the Biden admin. to block its opening.

But even if it were to open and U.S. got its planned boost to 80k or even 100k shells per month sometime next year. The current going shell price seems to be around $3000:

The $8489 number I believe is what Rheinmetall is paying in Germany.

So, even the current 28,000 monthly production x $3000 is costing $84 million a month, or $1 billion per year. 100,000 shells per month at that rateand the price may even go up in the futurewould cost a whopping $300,000,000 per month, and nearly $4B per year. Without a major ongoing aid package, there is simply no way that the U.S. will continue stealthily pumping $4B just for Ukraine's 155mm shellsthat's not counting the countless other armaments they need on a daily basis. This is one aspect I have a feeling no one has looked at: they simply "expect" that no matter what happens, Ukraine will continue getting its basic artillery shells, at the minimum; but who said that was a given? There is simply no mechanism for upwards of $4B yearly to be doled out for free without special congressional accommodationafter all, the presidential PDA (drawdown authority) is mostly gone.

This could explain some of the reasons behind all the recent panic and talks of NATO deployment.
The funding situation continues to look hopeless, anyway:
Apparently the narrative engineers have shifted gears further;
Quote:
Quote:
"We have assessed over the course of the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily," said Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell at an event hosted by the Center for a New American Security.
You see, in reality, they just make up whatever assessment fits the current model of narrative or agenda it's convenient for them to push. When the agenda called for valorizing Ukraine, they called Russia weak and 'destroyed'. But now that they see the only way to stop Russia is to get a unified Europe involved, they characterize Russia as not only totally 'rebuilt', but evenas per the second half of his statementhaving "newfound capabilities" which nowsurprise, surprise!happen to pose a threat to Europe too!
He goes into the nuclear defense capabilities/French silliness a bit but I'm just not real worried/interested in that stuff, frankly.



Ukraine, as a State Department vassal state, has zero democracy in reality:







On discrediting propaganda;



Anyway, forever war, comrades.

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8:34a, 4/7/24
AG
I know some dismiss the bio-labs stuff as 'conspiracy theory' as to a component driving the urgency of the proxy regime being maintained, but I think more and more evidence documents the concern/reality:
Quote:
(Moscow, Russia.) Most would likely agree that we are witnessing a grand struggle between good and evil. The list of revealed horrors is long, some more terrifying than others. My list of some of the worst: the poisoning of our food, water, and air; wholesale election fraud, massive government programs to eliminate free speech, mass surveillance, and a very real possibility of WW3 breaking out.

It's a pitched battle, with both sides scoring wins and losses across a wide front. When I ask, where might the good guys be vulnerable?, where might the bad guys deal a devastating blow?, one of the scariest, and sadly, entirely plausible options would be to unleash a devastating bioweapon on the world. I've thought that ever since Covid hit us, and before that even.

More and more indisputable evidence is coming out that, unfortunately, this is a very real possibility: it turns out that the US has an enormous, secretive, bioweapons program going back to 1947, and that over the last two decades it has exploded in size and funding. Its scale has ballooned so large and is so complex that it defies simple description, but researchers, politicians, whistleblowers, journalists, and bureaucrats around the world are slowly piecing things together - and Russia has much to add in connecting the dots.

According to RFK Jr. 13,000 scientists around the world are currently employed by it, funded by many $billions, toiling away in some 400 labs, concocting who knows what horrors, new vaccines and bioweapons in tandem, costing many $billions in direct expenses, and who knows how many hundreds of $billions or even $trillions of indirect cost to society. Some argue that this blob, if not stopped, and if it doesn't decimate humanity with disease, could bankrupt the West (see below). Nobody knows which weapons might already be developed, waiting to be deployed, or how close deluded scientists are to some sinister breakthrough.

As a journalist living in Moscow for many years, I know that Russian media have been talking about this going back to Soviet times, and no, it's not 'propaganda'. There is a community of experts in Russia whose work in one way or another intersects with this subject - journalists, scientists, the Russian military, bureaucrats, etc, and they have been saying all along that US activity in this area is far more extensive and nefarious than the Western public realize.

It broke into the headlines during and around Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008, with Russian claims that there were mysterious US biolabs there, most likely for military applications. The topic became hot during the current conflict in Ukraine, when Russia claimed to have seized similar labs there, along with incriminating documents. And then there is the Covid debacle, with both Russian and Chinese governments now charging that Covid was a US bioweapon released either deliberately or accidentally.
What led me to write this article (or perhaps series) is that I recently became aware that a similar narrative is gaining traction in the US.

The biggest impact comes from a new book from RFK Jr. Some may recall that he recently published a book absolutely trashing Fauci, and think that's the one. How many books can this guy write, and run for president too? But it's not that one, the one I'm talking about came out in December of last year, after the Fauci one, and it's called 'The Wuhan Coverup'. The title doesn't really convey the main gist, which is that the US has an enormous bioweapons program which threatens to swallow the whole world. It's being ignored by blob media, but praised in honest media.

Russian evidence mirrors RFK, Tucker, Elon, Tulsi claims

But it's not just RFK. Tucker, Elon, Tulsi, and Rand Paul are on to it.


More:
Quote:
I'll start with nutshelling the picture emerging from the West. The heavy lifting is in Kennedy's book:
[ol]
  • US secret services have been obsessed with bioweapons since the end of WW2, when, in their brilliance, they embraced them as a great way to fight the USSR.
  • A long and grisly history of the US using them against opponents over the decades, and of testing them on their own population and other countries, all kept top secret.
  • Vaccine development is inherent in bioweapons development, because the whole idea of bioweapons is to invent one, and then come up with a vaccine for it, so that you can use it on your opponent without your side getting sick.
  • The driver of gain-of-function research is not antidotes to diseases, rather invention of bioweapons.
  • Deep state used 9/11 to justify massive expansion of program, fed deceptively to the public as defensive measures against 'terrorism'.
  • Huge amounts of your tax $ have been spent on this, many, many billions, sucking huge numbers of brains out of science that might actually help humanity. The funding is so large that it has swallowed and corrupted the whole medical, pharma, academia, publishing, public health agency panopoly, with everything now focused on weapons and vaccines and pandemic response, i.e. lockdowns, censorship, etc.. A lot of the funding has come in in true spook style, through cutouts and fake 'foundations'.
  • This research was done all over the world, including, counterintuitively, in collaboration with the Chinese. (the book provides a good explanation of why this actually makes sense).
  • Covid was a US bioweapon which was released, either accidentally or deliberately.
  • There are currently US connected 400 bioweapons labs scattered around the world, fed by this gusher of money coming from US taxpayers.
  • This blob is demanding, among other things, Orwellian tracking, surveillance, and censorship, because it's a 'national security' issue. The whole thing has morphed into one of the biggest drivers of globalism.
  • Conclusion - shut the whole damn thing down before it destroys humanity.
    • [/ol]
    I didn't have time to read it. I got this from an excellent and more detailed descriptionof it from Debbie Lerman's Substack. Highly recommend reading for more eye-popping details.

    I want to keep this as short and accessible as possible, so just real quick, some more good stuff. One of my favorite investigative journalists, Larry Romanoff, who for reasons I don't fully understand is not widely followed in the West, (he's an American living in China) just made a devastating info-drop on the subject. He used to be published on Unz, but that stopped for some reason, and he doesn't do social media. It is basically a book, released in the form of 17 articles. It is mostly a shocking history of US bioweapons, but also covers latest developments and also concludes that Covid was a US bioweapon leak. It's a good complement to Kennedy's book. Also didn't have time to read that one, but Romanoff's previous work is gold (highly recommend checking it out), and from skimming these, it looks like they are too.

    One of Romanoff's contentions is that the CDC masquerades as a civilian health agency, but in fact is part of the US defense establishment, from which it takes its orders. Debbie Lerman reached a similar conclusion. A similar relationship was recently exposed between the RKI (Germany's version of the CDC) and the German military.
    A global link to bio-weapons, and state censorship/narrative control is, imho, a key driver for some of the worst folks in our State Department/NSA world.



    This does also contribute to the emotional/religious need to demonize/villainize Russia:
    Quote:
    A top Russian diplomat has also entered the info fray, and then there's Vasily Nebenzya at the UN, making similar charges. And there are more Russian journalists and scientists on the job. Surely there is something there, wouldn't you think?

    From what I've managed to glean, they are confirming a lot of what Kennedy and others are saying, and predate them. Some of the revelations I've encountered are quite newsworthy. There's some good stuff there, it's just a matter of digging it out. Like I said, I don't have much time, but I can easily pick up the easy stuff just sitting on the surface, and lob it into the interwebs. Maybe someone with more ability than me can make some use of it.
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    Aggie1205
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    3:48p, 4/7/24
    AG
    Nortex - I see the links you posted. Can you clarify if you feel that the US is responsible for Covid instead of China? In terms of it getting released.

    Its also interesting that the writer above admits they didn't actually read the book..........
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    nortex97
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    In reply to Aggie1205 • 5:27p, 4/7/24
    AG
    Aggie1205 said:
    Nortex - I see the links you posted. Can you clarify if you feel that the US is responsible for Covid instead of China? In terms of it getting released.

    Its also interesting that the writer above admits they didn't actually read the book..........
    Yes, it's sort of fascinating the perspective he has proffered without reading the book in full, but it was a good piece of analyses in any case, imho. Frankly, I haven't read that book either.

    Regarding Fauci flu, I think (a) the US paid to develop it via Fauci/Daszak/DoD/NIH clearly. This is essentially an open secret now, not really denied. As a bio-weapon, it was inelegant at very best, and unlikely to have been intentionally released from the horribly inept/incompetent Wuhan Institute of Virology lab. Note that the move to Wuhan from the US was a bitter/frustrated response to the Obama White House forcing them not to do this research and development in the US any longer; the swamp hates all control, on a bipartisan basis. The propaganda and lies around it's leak, however, are directly relevant to the present propaganda war, involving substantially the same parties; the CCP, CIA-state department apparatus (including WHO), and then claims of 'disinformation' and urgent need to adhere to the 'narrative.'

    The destabilizing impact of this swarm of lies that ensued (and attendant power grabs globally) was ultimately to…remove DJT from the White House, and kill millions while also empowering the censorship apparatus. Ukraine was just one ploy/canard in that effort, initially, but one that had to then be covered up, as well (including the biolabs located there). In any case, the real questions now are not around Fauci flu, but what else is/has been developed or is being worked on, where, and why. Surely the re-activation of Russian bioweapon development programs is not also seen as a 'benefit' of the Ukraine proxy war fight for 'democracy.'
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    nortex97
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    6:28p, 4/7/24
    AG


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    PlaneCrashGuy
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    In reply to nortex97 • 6:57p, 4/7/24
    AG
    "Cope pendulum" haha

    It is strange how folks who refuse to read or acknowledge info out of Russia will swear an advancing Russia is actually losing so so much so fast they cant sustain, or are almost out of stuff, for 2 years now.
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    YouBet
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    7:11p, 4/7/24
    AG
    As I'm currently listening to Supernova in the East (Japan in WWII), the parallels between the tide turning in that war against Japan and the tide turning here against Ukraine are becoming similar. By 1943, Japan was running out of men, equipment, parts and fuel for that equipment and pretty much everything else.

    The country with more stuff and that can move that stuff to the front lines more efficiently will win the war of attrition. Starting to look like Ukraine doesn't have much of a chance here which is why the posturing from NATO has ratcheted up, accordingly. They clearly know and are acknowledging that Ukraine is on the ropes.
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    nortex97
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    5:32a, 4/8/24
    AG


    We have the absolute worst people in charge of foreign policy/proxy war management.







    Orban is clearly a target of 'some' folks:





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    notex
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    6:37a, 4/8/24
    AG
    Excellent Article in National Interest: The Looming Ukraine Debacle.
    Quote:
    Faulty Assumptions
    Russia's economy was rated as weak and vulnerable to sanctions, given its energy dependency and relatively low GDP score, which is calculated by converting the value of its economy into U.S. dollars. This measure did not account for Russia's strategic industries, resource self-sufficiency, and access to alternative trading partners. Western sanctions on Russia's energy exports backfired, damaging some European economies more than Russia. They also caused a spike in energy prices, ensuring Russia received more than enough revenues to fund its war effort. The hope that most non-Western states would stop trading with Russia also proved unfounded; Russia has increased its trade flows with India, Turkey, and China, while many of Russia's neighbors quietly profit by reselling sanctioned goods to Moscow.

    The assumption that Russia is a kleptocracy led to personal sanctions on wealthy Russians that were expected to have political side effects; losing access to their assets and luxuries in the West, Russia's kleptocrats would surely turn on Putin. Instead, the sanctions have largely incentivized them to invest money in their own country and give their loyalty to the regime. Western sanctions were thus a double failure: they did not wreck the Russian economy or destabilize the elite coalition around the regime.

    The other set of assumptions was military in nature. Russia's failed use of hard power in the first two months of its "Special Military Operation" was taken as an indicator of gross military incompetence. Claims of high Russian causalities and equipment losses were linked to corruption, poor morale, and disorganization. Most commentators and reporters have accepted at face value the Ukrainian, U.S., and UK estimates of Russian losses, as well as the equipment loss count of the open-source intelligence unit "Oryx." The claims of astronomical Russian losses reinforced the long-standing assumption of NATO military superiority over Russia, creating a remarkable war optimism in the West. Ukraine would now use higher caliber Western weapons, tactics, and training to defeat Russia comprehensively. NATO's game-changing wonder weapons were kept on the sidelines and could be introduced when Ukraine needed decisive assistance.

    These military assumptions have now been proven incorrect. The drip-feeding of advanced weaponry, calibrated to avoid crossing Russian redlines too flagrantly, did not allow the Ukrainians to achieve decisive success in 2023. While access to NATO intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems has given Ukraine a crucial advantage in battlefield targeting, NATO training, equipment, and planning proved unsuitable for Ukraine's 2023 offensive. NATO countries have not provided consistent types of weaponry or kept up with the basic needs of munitions production or procurement into 2024. Overall, NATO was not well prepared for the war in Ukraine; its military doctrines foresaw interventions in civil wars or conflict with weaker opponents, not a proxy war of attrition with a peer competitor.

    In contrast, Russia was better prepared for the long haul of military production and has also successfully innovated in response to the military setbacks it has experienced. The Russian military has adapted to conditions of near total battlefield visibility, the mass use of drones, and the vastly reduced power of tanks and aircraft. This includes innovative infantry assault tactics, new methods of using and countering drones, and, more recently, the devastating use of glide bombs that allow Russian air power to be used while evading anti-aircraft fire. On the tactical and operational level, Russia is engaging many parts of the front simultaneously, forcing Ukraine into an exhausting and constant redeployment of troops. Presenting Russian military successes as "human wave" or "meat assaults" is clearly inaccurate. Russia's approach is gradual, attritional, and anything but mindless.

    Given these dynamics, widespread talk of a Ukrainian victory has been replaced by the specter of defeat if the West cannot deliver the needed weapons and supplies. Yet, even if the shells arrive in time, Ukraine also has a manpower problem that is much harder to solve. The Ukrainian government's deep reluctance to issue another mobilization may reflect a fear of popular discontent and doubts over the state's capacity to deliver the required number of men.
    Quote:
    Statements made in recent weeks do not hold together. Russia cannot be "allowed" to win, but the West lacks the means to defeat Russia. The Western alliance lacks the desire or the means to take the initiative in Ukraine. For all the bluster about how the West must not self-deter and cross Russia's redlines without fear, there is no real appetite to engage in brinksmanship over a Russia-NATO war.

    The lack of realism in Western discourse is clear. There is indeed a serious risk that, rather than the West teaching Russia a lesson and putting Putin in his place, the opposite may occur. Is Russia, in fact, educating the West on what it means to use hard power and wage interstate conflict in twenty-first-century conditions? Russia advertises its version of great power sovereignty, in which a united, resilient, and unwavering state can defeat the pooled sovereignty of the EU and NATO.

    We have all heard the objection that Putin simply cannot be trusted and that he wants nothing less than the complete elimination of Ukraine as an independent state. Yet, does not the blind continuation of the West's dysfunctional Plan A also threaten the total physical destruction of Ukraine? It is for this reason that Pope Francis has called on Western leaders not to be "ashamed to negotiate before things get worse."

    A new approach to the war in Ukraine will not emerge from rhetorical and moralistic proclamations. Words alone will not prevent a Russian victory. What is needed is a clear accounting of what can be realistically achieved with the means available, as well as the cost, risks, and benefits of different scenarios. Trying what has failed before and expecting new results is, after all, not a recipe for success.
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