I don't feel the need to explain bitcoins short term volatility. I just buy the dip.

Pepper Brooks said:

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I don't feel the need to explain bitcoins short term volatility. I just buy the dip.

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French Onion would be a better investment.

87% is not a "dip"

Bitcoins last high may be behind us.

There's no reason to expect it to keep going up with most of the supply minted and miners sitting on 13% of circulation.

ETFs behind us.

Super Bowl ads behind us.

Adoption has peaked.

Miners need to slowly sell there bags or got bankrupt.

How much you wanna bet? Or post your short.

It's nothing new if you've followed BTC during its run ups.

$BTC BULL MARKET CORRECTIONS

Here is a chart of meaningful corrections in the run up to $20,000 in 2017.

- 41%
- 38%
- 29%
- 34%
- 41%
- 40%
- 27%

Sizable corrections are normal in bull markets and nothing goes straight up, regardless of your favorite narrative. pic.twitter.com/ST13TtEpMR

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) March 19, 2024

$BTC BULL MARKET CORRECTIONS 2

Here is a chart of the meaningful corrections in the run up to $69,000 in 2021.

- 21%
- 17%
- 31%
- 26%
- 55%!!!
- 25%

You can debate some of these and add smaller ones in there as well. You get the idea. pic.twitter.com/deBmIuQf1h

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) March 19, 2024

Ethereum ETF still ahead of us, as is the halving.

I don't see an 87% drop because one person sold anywhere in there.

bmks270 said:

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Bitcoins last high may be behind us.

There's no reason to expect it to keep going up with most of the supply minted and miners sitting on 13% of circulation.

ETFs behind us.

Super Bowl ads behind us.

Adoption has peaked.

Miners need to slowly sell there bags or got bankrupt.

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This is an interesting topic with alot of nuance around it.

I found this article with the 13% figure you're quoting. Any chance you have further detail around that number? Ie how much of that is held by miners in which parts of the world and when was it mined? Technically, could Satoshi's never-touched ~million BTC be considered held by a miner per the statistics you site? (I'm not sure, just asking).

Miners mine for a variety of different reasons. To name a few:

1) Western world "for-profit" miners operate in the sense you're referring to. They have investors/lenders to satisfy and are trying to essentially earn fiat to pay bills + some leftover. These miners hold varying amounts of BTC, depending on their strategies.

US publicly traded miners don't hold much BTC right now. Last I've seen, MARA holds like 17k and RIOT like 8k. That's pretty small fries. CORZ doesn't hold any. I'd be surprised if US publicly traded miners hold more than 50-100k.

When you refer to "needing to sell bags or go bankrupt", it seems like you're referring to the miners of this sort. And you're right, these miners do need to sell at least some BTC on an ongoing basis to cover costs. You might enjoy this article on cyclicality, miner capitulation and the effect it has on BTC price.

But not every miner operates that way...

2) There's also off-grid, stranded energy miners who essentially have "sunk" energy costs and mine for whatever they can earn. Some hold if they're into BTC. Some immediately convert to fiat. I don't think these miners are as cyclical.

3) A certain segment of miners mine for access to non-KYC BTC and don't ever have intention to sell.

4) Chinese miners mined a ton in the mid 2010s and may still be holding alot of it. Perhaps they are standing ready to sell their held stockpiles but, like 2 and 3, they aren't in a position where they have to sell to cover ongoing costs under fear of capitulation. Lots of them have already stopped mining anyway.

5) Like I mentioned before, time is a key aspect too and an important variable to understand when quoting 13% of BTC owned by miners. People could mine 50 BTC every 10 minutes for the first few years of the protocol and some of them probably still hold large quantities.

It's obvious you're not a fan of Bitcoin given your previous posts and that's cool. I'm not here to convince you otherwise. But unless you have access to nuanced miner info that I'm not aware of, I'd just suggest that your thesis about miners' control over price is a little unfounded. If anything, with the halving coming up and miners only able to mine 450/day, I'd suggest the exact opposite... that miner influence on price is declining and bordering on negligible.

If you're seeking ways that BTC price can be manipulated, I'd look more closely at "crypto" exchange coordination with large market-makers/traders.

TexasRebel said:

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I don't see an 87% drop because one person sold anywhere in there.

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Where are you getting 87%?

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/03/19/bitcoin-flash-crashed-to-89k-on-bitmex/amp/

You make a great point, I don't know if the 1.8 million Bitcoin cited as being owned by miners includes Satoshis first million or not.

My assumptions were:

6 million estimated to be lost
19 million minted
Leaving 13 million in circulation
1.8 million held by miners
1.8/13 =13.8%

Take away satoshis and we still get
0.8/13 = 6% owned by miners

TexasRebel said:

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https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/03/19/bitcoin-flash-crashed-to-89k-on-bitmex/amp/

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Gotcha. I've seen those quick spikes the other direction too. Just like I don't get excited by them, I don't care about that. Not the true market value.

TexasRebel said:

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https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/03/19/bitcoin-flash-crashed-to-89k-on-bitmex/amp/

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Probably past time to setup some call options.

bmks270 said:

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You make a great point, I don't know if the 1.8 million Bitcoin cited as being owned by miners includes Satoshis first million or not.

My assumptions were:

6 million estimated to be lost
19 million minted
Leaving 13 million in circulation
1.8 million held by miners
1.8/13 =13.8%

Take away satoshis and we still get
0.8/13 = 6% owned by miners

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Just to haggle with you one more step, I think a good (but difficulty to precisely quantify) percentage of those 800k coins owned by miners are held by those who aren't using traditional profit/loss to dictate hold/sell decisions.

In the super early days of Bitcoin, you could mine 50 BTC per block from your PC. There's likely a collection of OGs that still has that original mined BTC and while it's possible they could sell at some point, they won't be selling because of profitability concerns. There's a few other miner types that aren't mining for that purpose either.

My guess is that of the 800k you quoted as being held by miners, maybe 100-200k of that is subject to be sold by potentially distressed miners that need to sell for fiat to help bridge operations. My contention with that being a basis for negative BTC price pressure is that miner capitulation has been a reasonably repeatable part of the four year halving cycle. We've seen it before and with much larger amounts of hodl.

And 200k really isn't that much in the grand scheme. The ETF's already hold way more than that. Coinbase/Binance custodian waaaaay more than that.

Again, if I was to devise a theory on why BTC price could be manipulated down in perpetuity, it would be more focused on large whale traders with access to asymmetric information from foreign crypto exchanges forcing prices into liquidation zones and feasting on increasingly frustrated retail.

My opinion is that those trader moves govern short term moves and more general supply demand dynamics ultimately govern the longer term moves. So I don't care too much about the short noise as I hodl. That's just where I would focus my time/energy if I was a skeptic.

I agree with her 100%....

Bitcoin is the 2010s version of America Online (AOL). It created awareness in blockchain tech and started the ball rolling but it has limited functionality. (that doesn't mean that it doesn't have future value (its going over $250K before all is said and done), it's just limited in what it can do).

The future is in blockchain tokens that disrupt industries and create new business opportunities around the world. Find the ones with use cases and good management teams (not just a good pitch deck....).

Real Estate is great, but #Bitcoin    is 👑 pic.twitter.com/NsYsXYkLsR

— Crypto Feras  (@CryptoFeras) March 26, 2024

drcrinum said:

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Real Estate is great, but #Bitcoin    is 👑 pic.twitter.com/NsYsXYkLsR

— Crypto Feras  (@CryptoFeras) March 26, 2024

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Can someone squat on my bitcoin UTXO's?

If property rights are as pathetic as they seem to be currently, well... hell... we are in for some hell aren't we?

If they guess the number, it's not squatting.

The key to nothing is theirs.

TexasRebel said:

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If they guess the number, it's not squatting.

The key to nothing is theirs.

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When you buy it, it will be at the price you deserve.

I won't even donate when it's the price it should be.

European central bankers are always wrong and only serve their own self interests in achieving globalism for everyone.

Except when we are talking about Bitcoin. Then they are just trying to protect the little guy.


Is there any one still willing to make an argument that the OP was not as ridiculously wrong as the OP of the "why we shouldn't be concerned about inflation thread"? (Not calling out MemphisAg, he obviously said he was just hesitant to invest. Just the source article)

You would have 4x'ed your investment at this point if you had bought any bitcoin when the OP posted it.

Even if Bitcoin fails down the road, the ECB was talking with their heads up their ass in regards to the OP.

Actually, decided it deserves its own thread

So I just mined my first block. Randomly picked nonces seem to work.

I see bitcoin is selling for $69,000 right now, but according to this thread they're worth more than that.

I'll give these 6.25 bitcoin to the first person that brings me $1,000,000 in cash.

I'll give you 200k cash, you pay no taxes so that's a win.

Since you think they are worthless I'll buy them from you for cash 10k each. Serious offer

But you think they're worth an infinite amount.

This thread title is funny. Ol Texas Rebel still trying to troll.

Just pointing out reality.

Well for one I don't think that. But I do think they're valuable which is why I'm offering cash. Now if you're not willing to sell them that cheap tell me what you're willing to sell your bitcoin to me for?

I did.

Ah so you're only willing to part with them for roughly 153k each

That's a pretty significant increase in value.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Ah so you're only willing to part with them for roughly 153k each

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was $160,000

Up to $200,000 now. Act fast.

TexasRebel said:

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So I just mined my first block. Randomly picked nonces seem to work.

I see bitcoin is selling for $69,000 right now, but according to this thread they're worth more than that.

I'll give these 6.25 bitcoin to the first person that brings me $1,000,000 in cash.

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Well that's easily verifiable. Post the block you mined and sign a message with your private key.

Then let's talk.

Otherwise gfy with this nonsense you filthy troll.

Show me the cash first. I'm not going to waste my time.