TexasRebel said:

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Some poor soul bought at $62K.

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If you think it's going to $1MM who cares if you bought at $62k or $17K?
If you think the USD (and most every other currency) is going to **** the bed over the next 100 hundred years or so $62K may ultimately be a nice cost basis.


eta: Price is what you pay, value is what you get - WB

To confirm, as we had some chats awhile back and I'm getting a different vibe from you now, you agree that an allocation to BTC makes sense for most portfolios? Do you currently have an allocation?

fka ftc said:

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Pepper Brooks said:

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We don't need to do anything. The debt spiral the fed/treasury are stuck in make it a mathematical certainty that they'll keep printing money to cover debt obligations. Were passed the point of turning back and default/currency collapse is inevitable.

What the US taxpayer, the individual, needs to hold his savings in, to avoid being ruined when it happens, is what we're trying to figure out. The USDs fate is already sealed.

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The most like widespread attack that would cripple the US in the future is an EMP attack.

Bitcoin would be exactly the worst storage of wealth in that event.

But let's say its a globalist takeover of the US. They will just make you conduct all transactions in wooden nickels and outlaw computers and the Internet. Again, not great for bitcoin.

As a hedge against inflation? Real estate is massively more stable.

The fate of the USD is not sealed and not anywhere close to being obsolete or irrelevant. But if the words of William DeVane bring you comfort, then buy all the gold and BTC you want. I prefer you buy gold as I am thinking about selling mine since it is about 2x purchase price right now.

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Until they take it away from you.

The CDC declared 'rent optional' in 2020 and everyone was A-OK with it until the SC finally told them NOPE.

But even then local jurisdictions did the same thing, or used tax dollars to provide rental assistance to folks during Covid.

Pepper Brooks said:

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To confirm, as we had some chats awhile back and I'm getting a different vibe from you now, you agree that an allocation to BTC makes sense for most portfolios? Do you currently have an allocation?

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I think BTC is a great product. I've even called it a perfect vehicle for performing the task for which it was created (maybe even on this thread). I just question the rationale behind the underlying value and wonder why people think its going to $1MM. But I come from a background where value may not equal price and the market can stay irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent.

eta: Having an allocation to BTC does not make you a Believer, just like having an allocation to gold doesn't make you doomsday prepper. If you're not considering risk and opportunity costs, and exit strategies when making investments, in stocks, bonds, BTC, commodities, RE, or whatever, you're doing yourself a disservice.


I work at a broker/dealer, so I want to be very careful with what I say: I do not own BTC but I may have exposure to it tangentially as part of my business.

Tysker, your perspective on the evolution of wealth since the 1970s and the role of Bitcoin in this context is indeed thought-provoking. It's essential to understand that Bitcoin isn't necessarily declaring all modern wealth as 'fake,' but it does challenge the foundations on which this wealth is built, especially in the context of a fractional reserve banking system.

**1. The Illusion of Wealth Creation:**
Modern financial institutions, benefiting from the Cantillon effect, have indeed created an environment where market forces can be manipulated, often to the disadvantage of the average person. This has led to a situation where the perception of wealth and prosperity is at odds with the reality experienced by many.

**2. The Impact of Centralization and Information Asymmetry:**
The centralization of financial power and the lack of transparent information have allowed these institutions to influence markets significantly. This includes front running trades and using high-frequency trading algorithms, which can distort the true supply and demand dynamics.

**3. The Shift to Alternative Investments:**
As people become more aware of these market manipulations, they're diversifying into alternative investments like real estate, inadvertently inflating prices to unsustainable levels. This shift is a direct response to the challenges posed by traditional financial systems.

**4. Societal Consequences:**
The consequences of these systemic issues are profound. We're witnessing increased homelessness, mental health issues, and a decline in family stability. These are signs of a society struggling under the weight of a high time preference, short-term gain mindset.

**5. Bitcoin's Role in Addressing These Issues:**
Bitcoin represents a shift towards a lower time preference ideal, encouraging long-term thinking and financial stability. By providing a decentralized alternative, it offers a way to counteract some of the systemic issues in the traditional financial system.

**6. A Balanced Approach to Wealth Management:**
While it's not advisable to put all wealth into Bitcoin, just as it isn't wise to invest solely in real estate, stocks, or any single asset class, Bitcoin offers a unique proposition. It's about diversification and understanding the inherent risks and potential of different investment strategies.

**In Conclusion:**
Bitcoin isn't just a cryptocurrency; it's a philosophical and financial tool that challenges and offers alternatives to traditional systems. Its value lies in providing a different perspective on wealth, investment, and societal wellbeing.

Quote:

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The most like widespread attack that would cripple the US in the future is an EMP attack.

Bitcoin would be exactly the worst storage of wealth in that event.

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I've always been confused by the EMP or "collapse of the internet" argument.

Bitcoin is international, and the redundancy of the ledgers is growing at all times in every nook & cranny of the world. That EMP would have to wipe out every computer on the planet to destroy BTC records. And if that happens, civilization as a whole would collapse.

The only wealth you would have access to after a massive EMP like that would be what you have safely secured in a safe in your home right now. And there's a great chance it would be stolen, or you would die trying to protect it.

tysker said:

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TexasRebel said:

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Some poor soul bought at $62K.

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eta: Price is what you pay, value is what you get - WB

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So $62,000 is worthless?

TexasRebel said:

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tysker said:

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TexasRebel said:

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Some poor soul bought at $62K.

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eta: Price is what you pay, value is what you get - WB

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So $62,000 is worthless?

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Price may or may not reflect the value, so the answer is both yes and no. Just as this this mask is worth both EM150 and EM4.2MM:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/31/french-couple-go-to-court-for-share-of-rare-african-masks-sale-price

Or an unsigned Jackson Pollack is worth both $5 and millions:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_the_$%26%25_Is_Jackson_Pollock%3F

So bitcoin is art?

TexasRebel said:

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So bitcoin is art?

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Now you're being disingenuous.

TexasRebel said:

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So bitcoin is art?

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No bitcoin is bitcoin.
A $62,000 is $62,000. That $62,000 can be discounted to be "worth" $1MM or it could be "worth" less than zero (think negative externalities). Circumstances vary.

TexasRebel said:

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So bitcoin is art?

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Depending on your opinion on "rare sats" or ordinal inscriptions, yes. But to me just the pure code satoshi created and the incentives behind is valid of art.

Science is art.

et98 said:

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Quote:

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The most like widespread attack that would cripple the US in the future is an EMP attack.

Bitcoin would be exactly the worst storage of wealth in that event.

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I've always been confused by the EMP or "collapse of the internet" argument.

Bitcoin is international, and the redundancy of the ledgers is growing at all times in every nook & cranny of the world. That EMP would have to wipe out every computer on the planet to destroy BTC records. And if that happens, civilization as a whole would collapse.

The only wealth you would have access to after a massive EMP like that would be what you have safely secured in a safe in your home right now. And there's a great chance it would be stolen, or you would die trying to protect it.

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It may exist on the ledger but you would likely be several years to access it and then you would have nothing you could do with it. Assuming you survive the apocalypses.

My point is that a store of value BTC is as poorly equipped as anything other food, water, ammo and medicine.

Regarding the dollar imploding and becoming worthless, BTC may help but only if you are domiciled internationally or have the ability to be. Else, things would be such a mess in the US that there would be no appreciable benefit to having BTC vs gold vs dollars vs pesos. We would be bartering goods for goods as what happens in places like Argentina during periods of hyper inflation.

tysker said:

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TexasRebel said:

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So bitcoin is art?

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No bitcoin is bitcoin.
A $62,000 is $62,000. That $62,000 can be discounted to be "worth" $1MM or it could be "worth" less than zero (think negative externalities). Circumstances vary.

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$62M does not ever equal $1MM

Ever

Basic math.

fka ftc said:

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et98 said:

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Quote:

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The most like widespread attack that would cripple the US in the future is an EMP attack.

Bitcoin would be exactly the worst storage of wealth in that event.

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I've always been confused by the EMP or "collapse of the internet" argument.

Bitcoin is international, and the redundancy of the ledgers is growing at all times in every nook & cranny of the world. That EMP would have to wipe out every computer on the planet to destroy BTC records. And if that happens, civilization as a whole would collapse.

The only wealth you would have access to after a massive EMP like that would be what you have safely secured in a safe in your home right now. And there's a great chance it would be stolen, or you would die trying to protect it.

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It may exist on the ledger but you would likely be several years to access it and then you would have nothing you could do with it. Assuming you survive the apocalypses.

My point is that a store of value BTC is as poorly equipped as anything other food, water, ammo and medicine.

Regarding the dollar imploding and becoming worthless, BTC may help but only if you are domiciled internationally or have the ability to be. Else, things would be such a mess in the US that there would be no appreciable benefit to having BTC vs gold vs dollars vs pesos. We would be bartering goods for goods as what happens in places like Argentina during periods of hyper inflation.

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I'm sure you calculate the risk of emp everytime you move money around.


Texasrebel:
$62m 'yesterday' can equal $1M today. Ask Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe. Or look up zero shock syndrome.

Not congruent but potentially equivalent
$62,000 today could be worth (or equivalent to) $1MM in 40 years on a discounted basis if invested in the S&P for 40 years at an 8% annual return

$62,000 is always worth $62,000.

However, $6.25 isn't always worth an hour of your time… or a quick greasy combo meal.

tysker said:

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Not congruent but potentially equivalent
$62,000 today could be worth (or equivalent to) $1MM in 40 years on a discounted basis if invested in the S&P for 40 years at an 8% annual return

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Run the numbers again, but you're a senator for 10 years.

I jumped in the water today.

Cannon ball or ankle deep?

tysker said:

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Not congruent but potentially equivalent
$62,000 today could be worth (or equivalent to) $1MM in 40 years on a discounted basis if invested in the S&P for 40 years at an 8% annual return

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What will $1MM be worth in 40 years? Will it buy a sandwich?

Reasonably significant, I guess. Enough to do some good if moves up but not so much it will devastate me if it tanks.

I have close folks who have been in BitCoin and a few other cryptos for over 6-8 years but I never really respected the whole idea. BlackRock, et. al. changed that for me.

Today, I bought Coinbase just to get some skin in the game but staying mainstream, while awaiting BlackRock ETF. I just do not want to do the app/exchange thing. Would have done it in October but I did not know about Coinbase as an option until now.

We will see.

It takes a lot of educating yourself. But so does learning how to use the US banking system. We just learn naturally how over the course of our childhood. I think it only gets easier from here.

seems pretty risky, what will happen to your coinbase stock if there's no more electricity because armageddon happened. did you think of that?

Pepper Brooks said:

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We don't need to do anything. The debt spiral the fed/treasury are stuck in make it a mathematical certainty that they'll keep printing money to cover debt obligations. Were passed the point of turning back and default/currency collapse is inevitable.

What the US taxpayer, the individual, needs to hold his savings in, to avoid being ruined when it happens, is what we're trying to figure out. The USDs fate is already sealed.

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This cannot be emphasized enough. Current US debt is $34 TRILLION and accelerating. The Fed+US Government has to keep printing more dollars as a result of their failed monetary policies and always-increasing appetite for spending. It is not a a question of IF the dollar will be revalued but WHEN.

On a different note, to those who keep saying BTC is infinitely divisible - it is NOT. One BTC = 100,000,000 satoshi. Full stop. Whether a satoshi is further divisible is up for discussion.

Everyone should immediately sell all their assets and buy Bitcoin. The $ price of Bitcoin will shoot to hundreds of thousands of dollars and for a brief moment everyone on the planet will be multi-millionaires or billionaires. Utopian dream.

Then the first few people to hit the SELL button win as everyone else's wealth goes to their pockets.

On a smaller scale This is mostly what Bitcoin is acting as. Not a currency, but as a speculative wealth transfer mechanism (the whales ultimately win the most) including an easier way to money launder and avoid traditional finance regulations.

It is going to be around for a long time with its rocket highs and lows cause a ton of money can be potentially made in it, and because so much money already has been invested in it.

Definitely Not A Cop said:

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I look forward to the threads by the same people in this thread in 2035 complaining about how it's not fair that most of the bitcoin in the world is being hoarded away by early adopters. Was already starting to see that before the last crash, and it will continue to grow worse after the next Halfing.

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This.

Bitcoin is making a decent run, finally in the black for me.

Until you can actually use it to purchase everyday goods, it will remain an investment product prone to wild swings. I haven't seen anything to make me believe it's trending towards common acceptance or stability which are necessary for it to function as an actual currency.


No thanks

nai06 said:

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Until you can actually use it to purchase everyday goods, it will remain an investment product prone to wild swings. I haven't seen anything to make me believe it's trending towards common acceptance or stability which are necessary for it to function as an actual currency.


No thanks

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frankly you don't know much about crypto based on what you typed above.

they LITERALLY just opened new ETFs for Bitcoin in the last few months.

my cost basis for my BTC is roughly $26K

the only question is do I sell at ATH 66K or hang on for the next decade.

PA24 said:

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Bitcoin is making a decent run, finally in the black for me.

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Me too. What to do now?

LMCane said:

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nai06 said:

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Until you can actually use it to purchase everyday goods, it will remain an investment product prone to wild swings. I haven't seen anything to make me believe it's trending towards common acceptance or stability which are necessary for it to function as an actual currency.


No thanks

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frankly you don't know much about crypto based on what you typed above.

they LITERALLY just opened new ETFs for Bitcoin in the last few months.

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That is not indicative of its relevance. The problem with cryptos is they have no long term viability. They are a bubble, and they will burst - hurting many people financially.