Bitcoin on the path to irrelevance?

111,797 Views | 1822 Replies | Last: 3 days ago by Yukon Cornelius
Kansas Kid
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In reply to tysker • 4:44p, 12/4/23
tysker said:
Retired FBI Agent said:
1. In-Kind Redemption of Bitcoin. Most retail investors purchasing the ETF will not be eligible to redeem ETF shares for Bitcoin in-kind. In-kind redemption is even still up in the air for institutions, too. There will absolutely be paper Bitcoin, rehypothecation, leverage, and lending.

2. No ETF is utilizing Bitcoin's native properties. This is very telling. Unlike Bitcoin, the Bitcoin ETFs will not be trustless and permissionless.
The above cannot be overstated enough. These ETFs are not convertible to BTC but instead "track" the price, less slippage. They are closed-loop vehicles.

Just wait until they create leveraged BTC ETFs

Actually ones like GBTC and probably most if not all new ETFs will allow creation and redemption to occur like most ETFs. That is why the price stays connected to the underlying basket unlike closed end funds like GBTC is today.
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Retired FBI Agent
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In reply to tysker • 4:44p, 12/4/23
tysker said:
Retired FBI Agent said:
1. In-Kind Redemption of Bitcoin. Most retail investors purchasing the ETF will not be eligible to redeem ETF shares for Bitcoin in-kind. In-kind redemption is even still up in the air for institutions, too. There will absolutely be paper Bitcoin, rehypothecation, leverage, and lending.

2. No ETF is utilizing Bitcoin's native properties. This is very telling. Unlike Bitcoin, the Bitcoin ETFs will not be trustless and permissionless.
The above cannot be overstated enough. These ETFs are not convertible to BTC but instead "track" the price, less slippage. They are closed-loop vehicles.

Just wait until they create leveraged BTC ETFs


https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/06/27/first-leveraged-bitcoin-etf-in-us-sees-42m-in-trading-volume-since-debut/
https://tips.fbi.gov/
1-800-225-5324
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TexasRebel
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In reply to Kansas Kid • 4:52p, 12/4/23
AG
The bitcoin blockchain contains a record of transactions. That doesn't seem too anonymous in the long run.
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tysker
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In reply to Retired FBI Agent • 5:31p, 12/4/23
AG
Retired FBI Agent said:
tysker said:
Retired FBI Agent said:
1. In-Kind Redemption of Bitcoin. Most retail investors purchasing the ETF will not be eligible to redeem ETF shares for Bitcoin in-kind. In-kind redemption is even still up in the air for institutions, too. There will absolutely be paper Bitcoin, rehypothecation, leverage, and lending.

2. No ETF is utilizing Bitcoin's native properties. This is very telling. Unlike Bitcoin, the Bitcoin ETFs will not be trustless and permissionless.
The above cannot be overstated enough. These ETFs are not convertible to BTC but instead "track" the price, less slippage. They are closed-loop vehicles.

Just wait until they create leveraged BTC ETFs


https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/06/27/first-leveraged-bitcoin-etf-in-us-sees-42m-in-trading-volume-since-debut/
damn, shows you what I know.
these products are silly. BITX holdings as of today:

% of Net Assets Name Ticker CUSIP Shares Held Market Value
141.18 CME Bitcoin Fut Dec23 BTCZ3 Curncy BTCZ3 CURNCY 844 165,529,500.00
100.01 Cash & Other Cash&Other CASH_USD 117,258,120.52 117,258,120.52
58.78 CME Bitcoin Fut Jan24 BTCF4 Curncy BTCF4 CURNCY 347 68,914,200.00

BITO's holdings are weighted
51% BTCZ3
49% BTCF4

Seems like the 2X could be in for wild ride between the Dec expiry and the expected early Jan decision about the spot ETFs
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hunter2012
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In reply to Algorithmic Epiphany • 5:36p, 12/4/23
AG
Algorithmic Epiphany said:
MemphisAg1 said:
Passing along a link to this article that makes the case Bitcoin will remain on a downward trend.

Quote:
"Bitcoin's conceptual design and technological shortcomings make it questionable as a means of payment: real Bitcoin transactions are cumbersome, slow and expensive," they wrote. "Bitcoin has never been used to any significant extent for legal real-world transactions."

"Bitcoin is also not suitable as an investment. It does not generate cash flow (like real estate) or dividends (like equities), cannot be used productively (like commodities) or provide social benefits (like gold). The market valuation of Bitcoin is therefore based purely on speculation," they added.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/european-central-bank-says-bitcoin-is-on-the-road-to-irrelevance.html

I don't own any because I haven't resolved how to value it, and it's too volatile for my taste. I follow a hard rule of not investing in things I don't understand. That has served me well after some small, but impactful, lessons learned with investing earlier in life.

But I'm fascinated by the ongoing story of technology development, wealth creation and destruction.


Be careful what data you consume. BTC back to $40k
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tysker
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In reply to Kansas Kid • 5:44p, 12/4/23
AG
Kansas Kid said:
tysker said:
Retired FBI Agent said:
1. In-Kind Redemption of Bitcoin. Most retail investors purchasing the ETF will not be eligible to redeem ETF shares for Bitcoin in-kind. In-kind redemption is even still up in the air for institutions, too. There will absolutely be paper Bitcoin, rehypothecation, leverage, and lending.

2. No ETF is utilizing Bitcoin's native properties. This is very telling. Unlike Bitcoin, the Bitcoin ETFs will not be trustless and permissionless.
The above cannot be overstated enough. These ETFs are not convertible to BTC but instead "track" the price, less slippage. They are closed-loop vehicles.

Just wait until they create leveraged BTC ETFs

Actually ones like GBTC and probably most if not all new ETFs will allow creation and redemption to occur like most ETFs. That is why the price stays connected to the underlying basket unlike closed end funds like GBTC is today.
BLK is trying to retain In-Kind redemption and BLK wants In-Kind because it's functionally easier and probably cleaner from a KYC perspective, as long as the asset stays in-house or same name (same UBO)

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one safe place
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In reply to hunter2012 • 6:02p, 12/4/23
hunter2012 said:
Algorithmic Epiphany said:
MemphisAg1 said:
Passing along a link to this article that makes the case Bitcoin will remain on a downward trend.

Quote:
"Bitcoin's conceptual design and technological shortcomings make it questionable as a means of payment: real Bitcoin transactions are cumbersome, slow and expensive," they wrote. "Bitcoin has never been used to any significant extent for legal real-world transactions."

"Bitcoin is also not suitable as an investment. It does not generate cash flow (like real estate) or dividends (like equities), cannot be used productively (like commodities) or provide social benefits (like gold). The market valuation of Bitcoin is therefore based purely on speculation," they added.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/european-central-bank-says-bitcoin-is-on-the-road-to-irrelevance.html

I don't own any because I haven't resolved how to value it, and it's too volatile for my taste. I follow a hard rule of not investing in things I don't understand. That has served me well after some small, but impactful, lessons learned with investing earlier in life.

But I'm fascinated by the ongoing story of technology development, wealth creation and destruction.


Be careful what data you consume. BTC back to $40k
At $40k, those with .005 BTC are up to $200.
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fka ftc
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In reply to one safe place • 6:11p, 12/4/23
one safe place said:
hunter2012 said:
Algorithmic Epiphany said:
MemphisAg1 said:
Passing along a link to this article that makes the case Bitcoin will remain on a downward trend.

Quote:
"Bitcoin's conceptual design and technological shortcomings make it questionable as a means of payment: real Bitcoin transactions are cumbersome, slow and expensive," they wrote. "Bitcoin has never been used to any significant extent for legal real-world transactions."

"Bitcoin is also not suitable as an investment. It does not generate cash flow (like real estate) or dividends (like equities), cannot be used productively (like commodities) or provide social benefits (like gold). The market valuation of Bitcoin is therefore based purely on speculation," they added.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/european-central-bank-says-bitcoin-is-on-the-road-to-irrelevance.html

I don't own any because I haven't resolved how to value it, and it's too volatile for my taste. I follow a hard rule of not investing in things I don't understand. That has served me well after some small, but impactful, lessons learned with investing earlier in life.

But I'm fascinated by the ongoing story of technology development, wealth creation and destruction.


Be careful what data you consume. BTC back to $40k
At $40k, those with .005 BTC are up to $200.
How many Satoshis, Yoshis or Princess Peaches is that?
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
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MRB10
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In reply to one safe place • 6:11p, 12/4/23
AG
Yes and those who saw its potential years ago, and decided to use it as a store of value/savings vehicle, are very happy as well. Not me of course… I'd never use money that criminals use.
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
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Kansas Kid
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In reply to MRB10 • 6:40p, 12/4/23
Pepper Brooks said:
Yes and those who saw its potential years ago, and decided to use it as a store of value/savings vehicle, are very happy as well. Not me of course… I'd never use money that criminals use.

So you don't use $100 bills or any other US currency?
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MRB10
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In reply to Kansas Kid • 6:47p, 12/4/23
AG
Criminals use those too?! Which currency is most frequently used for illegal or illicit activities? Surely it's Bitcoin…
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
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Kansas Kid
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In reply to MRB10 • 6:53p, 12/4/23
Pepper Brooks said:
Criminals use those too?! Which currency is most frequently used for illegal or illicit activities? Surely it's Bitcoin…

It shouldn't matter to you since you don't use any currency used in criminal activity so that eliminate all fiat currency.
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MRB10
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In reply to Kansas Kid • 7:03p, 12/4/23
AG
I intend to rethink my entire approach. Chick filet accepts silver, right?
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
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Kansas Kid
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In reply to MRB10 • 7:11p, 12/4/23
Pepper Brooks said:
I intend to rethink my entire approach. Chick filet accepts silver, right?

They should although Pirates dealt in silver and gold too.
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fka ftc
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In reply to MRB10 • 7:12p, 12/4/23
Pepper Brooks said:
I intend to rethink my entire approach. Chick filet accepts silver, right?
Even if they did, they would peg your nugz and the price of silver in US dollars to effect the transaction.

Its a concept lost on all bitcoiners at the moment. Hell, bitcoins rising popularity, volatility and increasing value make it ineffective as an everyday currency.

But don't tell that to those who promise it is the only answer for money.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
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MRB10
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7:15p, 12/4/23
AG
So what's my best option?
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
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Kansas Kid
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In reply to MRB10 • 8:22p, 12/4/23
Pepper Brooks said:
So what's my best option?

Cow chips. I don't know of any criminals using those and in a pinch you can burn them for heat.
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MRB10
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8:37p, 12/4/23
AG
If criminals don't discriminate, it sounds like I just need to know which is the best money. No?

My dollars are accepted everywhere, but buy me less and less every year. My paycheck isn't offsetting anymore either.
Silver/gold seems to hold its value better but I can't use it at chick filet. It's also not ideal to haul around long distance.
Bitcoin appears to be a mixed bag. Everyone tells me it's useless, is a scam, volatile, keep comparing it to tulips, etc. but the price has appreciated more than gold and equities over the last 5 & 10 year periods. My brother(in the UK) also says he can send me his share of my parents Christmas present for nearly free and I wont have to mess with a bank. The shop Im going to buy my P365 X-Macro from said I can use it for that too.

It's a tough call.
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
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Definitely Not A Cop
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8:39p, 12/4/23
AG
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Kansas Kid
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 9:28p, 12/4/23
Definitely Not A Cop said:

I love how he points out how it crashes but never talks about how it has gone up dramatically over time. If you bought it at the first high he highlighted and still hold it, you could pay to buyout Jimbo's contract.

Also, the USD has lost 98% of its purchasing power since 1970.

Again, I am not a crypto guy but I can see why some like to have exposure especially when you see what fiat currencies do over time.
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TexasRebel
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In reply to Kansas Kid • 11:59p, 12/4/23
AG
How much will it be worth when all 21,000,000 are irrecoverably lost?
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@NFLPlayerProps
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7:35a, 12/5/23
Staggering levels of confusion on this board. There are really only two things you need to understand about BTC:

1) It will continue to appreciate against the USD for as long as the government continues printing more money
2) The government can never stop printing more money

Most of you are completely overthinking this.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to Kansas Kid • 8:03a, 12/5/23
AG
Kansas Kid said:
Definitely Not A Cop said:

I love how he points out how it crashes but never talks about how it has gone up dramatically over time. If you bought it at the first high he highlighted and still hold it, you could pay to buyout Jimbo's contract.

Also, the USD has lost 98% of its purchasing power since 1970.

Again, I am not a crypto guy but I can see why some like to have exposure especially when you see what fiat currencies do over time.


The video is satirizing the doom and gloom views on bitcoin.
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Kansas Kid
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 8:05a, 12/5/23
Definitely Not A Cop said:
Kansas Kid said:
Definitely Not A Cop said:

I love how he points out how it crashes but never talks about how it has gone up dramatically over time. If you bought it at the first high he highlighted and still hold it, you could pay to buyout Jimbo's contract.

Also, the USD has lost 98% of its purchasing power since 1970.

Again, I am not a crypto guy but I can see why some like to have exposure especially when you see what fiat currencies do over time.


The video is satirizing the doom and gloom views on bitcoin.

Didn't seem like satire to me. I have heard many say similar views as to why they don't invest in Bitcoin.
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Algorithmic Epiphany
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8:40a, 12/5/23




Pretty fascinating when you pan out from the dollar at the rest of the world.

Re gold: divisibility and transferability of gold incentivized the use of paper gold certs, and the plethora of apparati surrounding paper gold.

It's easier to self-custody and transfer UTXOs than gold ever was.... paper bitcoin and derivatives upon them might never be valuable or useful. Time will tell.
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fka ftc
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In reply to Algorithmic Epiphany • 8:46a, 12/5/23
Algorithmic Epiphany said:


Pretty fascinating when you pan out from the dollar at the rest of the world.

Re gold: divisibility and transferability of gold incentivized the use of paper gold certs, and the plethora of apparati surrounding paper gold.

It's easier to self-custody and transfer UTXOs than gold ever was.... paper bitcoin and derivatives upon them might never be valuable or useful. Time will tell.
So we just need to devalue the dollar to the level of the columbian and argentine pesos and this bitcoin thing will just take off to infinity and beyond!

Great plan.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
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MRB10
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In reply to fka ftc • 8:51a, 12/5/23
AG
We don't need to do anything. The debt spiral the fed/treasury are stuck in make it a mathematical certainty that they'll keep printing money to cover debt obligations. Were passed the point of turning back and default/currency collapse is inevitable.

What the US taxpayer, the individual, needs to hold his savings in, to avoid being ruined when it happens, is what we're trying to figure out. The USDs fate is already sealed.
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
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fka ftc
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In reply to MRB10 • 8:57a, 12/5/23
Pepper Brooks said:
We don't need to do anything. The debt spiral the fed/treasury are stuck in make it a mathematical certainty that they'll keep printing money to cover debt obligations. Were passed the point of turning back and default/currency collapse is inevitable.

What the US taxpayer, the individual, needs to hold his savings in, to avoid being ruined when it happens, is what we're trying to figure out. The USDs fate is already sealed.
The most like widespread attack that would cripple the US in the future is an EMP attack.

Bitcoin would be exactly the worst storage of wealth in that event.

But let's say its a globalist takeover of the US. They will just make you conduct all transactions in wooden nickels and outlaw computers and the Internet. Again, not great for bitcoin.

As a hedge against inflation? Real estate is massively more stable.

The fate of the USD is not sealed and not anywhere close to being obsolete or irrelevant. But if the words of William DeVane bring you comfort, then buy all the gold and BTC you want. I prefer you buy gold as I am thinking about selling mine since it is about 2x purchase price right now.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
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bmks270
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9:03a, 12/5/23
AG
Weird that Bitcoin record highs were 2-3 years ago while record inflation continues. I thought Bitcoin was an inflation hedge, many Bitcoin prophets told me it was.

The only real value in Bitcoin is in the mining which is an actual service that can generate cash flow as long as there is demand for Bitcoin transactions. If I were to "invest" in Bitcoin, I'd buy miner stock instead of Bitcoin.
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TexasRebel
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In reply to bmks270 • 9:07a, 12/5/23
AG
Some poor soul bought at $62K.
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XpressAg09
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In reply to Kansas Kid • 9:07a, 12/5/23
AG
Kansas Kid said:
Definitely Not A Cop said:

I love how he points out how it crashes but never talks about how it has gone up dramatically over time.
That's the joke.
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Algorithmic Epiphany
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9:09a, 12/5/23
It's fun listening to news anchors adapt over time, now they're chastising gold bugs like Peter schiff and talking about the Halvening.



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Algorithmic Epiphany
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In reply to TexasRebel • 9:16a, 12/5/23
TexasRebel said:
Some poor soul bought at $62K.


I think I had my dollarcostaverage autobuy at the top, even had that been my initial point of entry, I'm up now.



There is no "top" in comparison to the dollar.
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MRB10
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In reply to fka ftc • 9:24a, 12/5/23
AG
The EMP scenario would be challenging for any 100% digital currency. Including the USD, a CBDC, etc. as physical cash is used by a small number of people these days. Savings rates are at an all time low and socking away a few thousand dollars under the mattress is not practical for many Americans.

Re: totalitarian take over… do some reading on China's attempts to ban it. One of the selling points of Bitcoin is that the only person with control over it is the person who has the key. The ledger is public but proving who owns what address is tough to do and they can't shut down or censor the blockchain.

Real estate is not liquid. It may be a decent hedge but that is not ideal for the scenarios we're talking about. I think a prudent strategy is to own some of all of the options(real estate, PMs, BTC, etc.) and try and be prepared for whatever is thrown at you.
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
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tysker
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In reply to Kansas Kid • 9:42a, 12/5/23
AG
Kans said:
Also, the USD has lost 98% of its purchasing power since 1970.

Again, I am not a crypto guy but I can see why some like to have exposure especially when you see what fiat currencies do over time.
One of my favorite modern thinkers about money wrote a nice article about this stuff years ago:
https://www.pragcap.com/has-the-dollar-lost-99-precent-of-purchasing-power/


Quote:
Households don't leave their dollars under their mattresses. Households invest dollars in instruments that earn cash flows from the real investments that we make in the country. In fact, a household that held just T-Bills maintained their purchasing power through interest payments alone.
How much wealth and productivity has been created since 1970? Even when people keep their cash in banks, banks take that cash and use for for loans and other collateral. (BTC at its essense doesn't have the same properties to permit loaning and collateralization,)

I think one of the unconscious pushbacks against BTC is that BTC basically says all of that wealth and prosperity you/we have created (since the 70s) is fake and built on fake wealth, and that's hard for many of us to come to terms with. (It was also an argument you would see from time to time in the We are the 99%, Occupy WS days.) However that was always the trade-off when moving a fractional reserve banking system.

IMO, holding all of your wealth in BTC is the same as holding all your wealth in RE, stocks, Gold, Silver, or beanie babies. Your strategy may work for a time, but over the long run will you keep up in real terms, especially on a risk-adjusted basis?
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