TexasRebel said:

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As keys are lost and become unrecoverable there will be fewer and fewer accessible bitcoin.

Once 21,000,000 are reached, lost keys will happen until all 21,000,000 are unrecoverable.

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This is a gigantic assumption and not remotely in the realm of possibility.

Your base premise is flawed.

CDUB98 said:

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TexasRebel said:

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As keys are lost and become unrecoverable there will be fewer and fewer accessible bitcoin.

Once 21,000,000 are reached, lost keys will happen until all 21,000,000 are unrecoverable.

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This is a gigantic assumption and not remotely in the realm of possibility.

Your base premise is flawed.

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After 1000 years, something like this could become very close to reality.

Win At Life said:

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CDUB98 said:

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TexasRebel said:

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As keys are lost and become unrecoverable there will be fewer and fewer accessible bitcoin.

Once 21,000,000 are reached, lost keys will happen until all 21,000,000 are unrecoverable.

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This is a gigantic assumption and not remotely in the realm of possibility.

Your base premise is flawed.

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After 1000 years, something like this could become very close to reality.

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Over a long enough time horizon, EVERYTHING changes. Ridiculous statement.

ac04 said:

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Quote:

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It'd be like if we stopped minting dollar bills in 1836 and they were left to survive normal wear and tear for nearly 200 years.

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its not like that at all, what a goofy comment.

you are correct that imbeciles who cannot remember passwords or communicate them to beneficiaries should probably stay away from bitcoin and focus on more pressing personal issues.

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You just described a large portion of the human population.

man, i thought i had low time preference. evaluating investments on a 1000 year horizon is impressive.

CDUB98 said:

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Win At Life said:

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CDUB98 said:

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TexasRebel said:

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As keys are lost and become unrecoverable there will be fewer and fewer accessible bitcoin.

Once 21,000,000 are reached, lost keys will happen until all 21,000,000 are unrecoverable.

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This is a gigantic assumption and not remotely in the realm of possibility.

Your base premise is flawed.

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After 1000 years, something like this could become very close to reality.

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Over a long enough time horizon, EVERYTHING changes. Ridiculous statement.

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Okay, how much is lost in 100 years?

Point is, BTC can't exceed 21M quantity and lost BTC will always increase overtime. So, asymptotically, it's heading in that direction. It's just a matter of time.

I'd just like to point out that CDUB is now defending Bitcoin on F16. That is all.

Pepper Brooks said:

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I'd just like to point out that CDUB is now defending Bitcoin on F16. That is all.

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Umm, I'm not a BTC naysayer. I'm a doubter.

Venture capitalist Tim Draper is predicting just a couple of days ago Bitcoin will be at 250K per coin by summer 2023.

So invest everything you have now! 20X return on your money in the next 7 months! If it sounds too good to be true, it has to be true. Mortage your house if you have to, be stinking rich in just 7 months, retire (at whatever age you are if not already retired) and then can spend the rest of your days on message boards bragging about how smart you were.

Of course, if Bitcoin does do that, a flood of thousands and thousands of new millionaire and billionaire Bitcoiners will be entering the economy. There probably won't be enough luxury cars and mega-yachts in stock to support all of those newly minted rich folk's spending sprees. Gotta think supply and demand kicks in and inflation would REALLY take off then on a lot of stuff.

I know, I was joking.

CDUB98 said:

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Win At Life said:

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CDUB98 said:

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TexasRebel said:

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As keys are lost and become unrecoverable there will be fewer and fewer accessible bitcoin.

Once 21,000,000 are reached, lost keys will happen until all 21,000,000 are unrecoverable.

---

This is a gigantic assumption and not remotely in the realm of possibility.

Your base premise is flawed.

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After 1000 years, something like this could become very close to reality.

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Over a long enough time horizon, EVERYTHING changes. Ridiculous statement.

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How long? There have a been a couple well known precious metals known to have lasted throughout all of recorded human history

Those precious metals can be recovered and used by the next party. No key necessary.

TexasRebel said:

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Those precious metals can be recovered and used by the next party. No key necessary.

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I did not now until listening to a podcast about the politics and process of treasure hunters that silver dissolves in saltwater; gold does not. So if you lose your silver on the ocean floor its basically unrecoverable.

tysker said:

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TexasRebel said:

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Those precious metals can be recovered and used by the next party. No key necessary.

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I did not now until listening to a podcast about the politics and process of treasure hunters that silver dissolves in saltwater; gold does not. So if you lose your silver on the ocean floor its basically unrecoverable.

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Fun case of dissolving gold

https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2011/10/03/140815154/dissolve-my-nobel-prize-fast-a-true-story

Dissolved elements are still recoverable though.

Unless we're atom smashing…

TexasRebel said:

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Dissolved elements are still recoverable though.

Unless we're atom smashing…

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fair enough and in that same sense, there is no such thing as a secure private key


eta: which would be quicker: hacking a private key or recovering a dissolved silver coin from the ocean?

Checkmate.

The Earth does that second one constantly.

I've made the argument before that randomly guessing private keys might be the next Gold Rush.

One good thing about gold is that it's only kind of portable. Steal a bunch of it and it's heavy and bulky. A person could theoretically have all 21,000,000 bitcoins in a tattoo.

There's several on here that could talk to you about multi-sig. I'm also working with a company called Vaultavo which will help fix many of the "complicated" issues of self custody.

How does this recover a key that someone printed out and lost in a house fire?

Also, why would you want to share a key with anyone you didn't want to have the coin? After all. Every time a key is recorded its security risks double.

You were talking about guessing someone's seed phrase. I have you two options if you were worried about that.

Now you tell me I'm doubling your risks.

Things have to be simpler if Bitcoin is going to see mass adoption. Simpler doesn't mean it has to be orders of magnitude less secure. People are working on this issue.

so now you need multiple people/keys to pay for something?

Even with multiple keys, the possibility (not probability) of guessing the correct keys still exists.

There is a 0 : ∞ chance that someone is going to steal this C-note i'm physically sitting on.

*sigh*

I give up.

Keep your cash, gold, guns, ammo, food, EMP proof vehicle.

But don't get any Bitcoin. Because that will never work.

Couple things:

Bitcoins don't have any wear and tear, so that analogy is very weak and doesn't apply. People do have poor opsec, fading memories and eventually die. If these things aren't planned for then yes more coins will be lost.

As TexasRebel points out, it is estimated that some 4,000,000 coins are lost. This isn't really "known" but is estimated by forensic scientist types. The total supply of bitcoin is finite and strictly limited to 21,000,000; this is an absolute hard cap which makes bitcoin scarce and deflationary. While the units are fixed, the divisibility or "denominations" are not. We use Satoshis today (1 bitcoin == 100 million Satoshis), but bitcoin can be further subdivided as necessary in the future. For example the Lightning network already uses millisats (1/1000th Sat).


So the short answer to if or when 85 or 95% of the 21,000,000 coins are lost is that those with *any* holdings in 2022 will be immensely wealthy.

TexasRebel said:

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One good thing about gold is that it's only kind of portable. Steal a bunch of it and it's heavy and bulky. A person could theoretically have all 21,000,000 bitcoins in a tattoo.

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One good thing about bitcoin is that it is insanely portable. All you need is your wallet or your seedphrase and you have instant access to your coins wherever you are. Try carrying some gold across the Mexican border. Try making a large purchase with bullion. Try moving gold across the ocean.

One good thing about bitcoin is that transactions can be trusted. All you need to do is wait for it to be verified on the ledger, after which it is immutable and irreversible. Good luck determining the purity of the gold Dingleberry Finn is wanting to exchange for some of your goods.

One good thing about bitcoin is that I don't need anyone's permission to spend it. All you need is another willing party / address and the coins are transferred without the involvement or permissions of the state or a sovereign or a bank or broker. Try that in Nigeria where they are limiting cash withdrawals and pushing CBDC. Try that in China where your accounts are frozen because you were caught smoking. Try that in the US in a few years because someone doesn't like your post on TA or other social media.

Bitcoin is not a panacea. There are many things it does not solve or resolve. However it also isn't a binary choice at the moment. You can and probably should do bitcoin and other insurance measures. You owe it to yourself to at least understand it before summarily dismissing it with weak argument.

C'mon, be a Rebel ;-)

TexasRebel said:

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I've made the argument before that randomly guessing private keys might be the next Gold Rush

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TexasRebel said:

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Even with multiple keys, the possibility (not probability) of guessing the correct keys still exists.

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a private key is essentially a number between 1 and 2^156. that is a 78 digit number that is greater than the number of atoms that exist on earth. the possibility of guessing a private key is even less likely than you contributing anything meaningful to a conversation about bitcoin.

ac04 said:

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TexasRebel said:

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so now you need multiple people/keys to pay for something?

Even with multiple keys, the possibility (not probability) of guessing the correct keys still exists.

There is a 0 : ∞ chance that someone is going to steal this C-note i'm physically sitting on.

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a private key is essentially a number between 1 and 2^156. that is a 78 digit number that is greater than the number of atoms that exist on earth. the possibility of guessing a private key is even less likely than you contributing anything meaningful to a conversation about bitcoin.

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And that complexity, along with value volatility, are why it's incredibly hard to picture bitcoin as a mainstream currency.

It has the potential to be a great, speculative investment for those capable of managing the complexity and comfortable with the volatility.

the complexity is the security. it's not complex at all if you have the password.

TexasRebel said:

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The Earth does that second one constantly.

I've made the argument before that randomly guessing private keys might be the next Gold Rush.

One good thing about gold is that it's only kind of portable. Steal a bunch of it and it's heavy and bulky. A person could theoretically have all 21,000,000 bitcoins in a tattoo.

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For those that don't understand the math behind this claim, may I suggest this few minute video:



TL;DR -- everyone on earth would need billions of times the power of google, and then you'd need to replicate that across billions of other planets and galaxies guessing numbers for 37 times the estimated age of the universe would still only guess correctly 1 in 4 billion chances.

In summary, again the argument is uninformed. It would be far more profitable to randomly guess banking credentials and yet I'm going to guess you still have money in an internet accessible bank account...

MemphisAg1 said:

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ac04 said:

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TexasRebel said:

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so now you need multiple people/keys to pay for something?

Even with multiple keys, the possibility (not probability) of guessing the correct keys still exists.

There is a 0 : ∞ chance that someone is going to steal this C-note i'm physically sitting on.

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a private key is essentially a number between 1 and 2^156. that is a 78 digit number that is greater than the number of atoms that exist on earth. the possibility of guessing a private key is even less likely than you contributing anything meaningful to a conversation about bitcoin.

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And that complexity, along with value volatility, are why it's incredibly hard to picture bitcoin as a mainstream currency.

It has the potential to be a great, speculative investment for those capable of managing the complexity and comfortable with the volatility.

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The computer, cellphone, Microsoft TV, or Tmobile Sidekick you posted from are highly complex, with hundreds of millions of transistors and multi GHz signaling, RF, etc. You might be an EE and understand this completely, but the point is there are many highly complex systems that are adopted in mainstream use. The complexity does need to decrease and it will.

RED AG 98 said:

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TexasRebel said:

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The Earth does that second one constantly.

I've made the argument before that randomly guessing private keys might be the next Gold Rush.

One good thing about gold is that it's only kind of portable. Steal a bunch of it and it's heavy and bulky. A person could theoretically have all 21,000,000 bitcoins in a tattoo.

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For those that don't understand the math behind this claim, may I suggest this few minute video:



TL;DR -- everyone on earth would need billions of times the power of google, and then you'd need to replicate that across billions of other planets and galaxies guessing numbers for 37 times the estimated age of the universe would still only guess correctly 1 in 4 billion chances.

In summary, again the argument is uninformed. It would be far more profitable to randomly guess banking credentials and yet I'm going to guess you still have money in an internet accessible bank account...

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Computing power or luck. All it takes is one guess. Is it probable? No. Is it possible? Yes.

In that internet accessible bank account, if somebody breaks in by randomly guessing my credentials, I have a path to recovery with the bank holding my funds.

If a security camera catches an image of a partial private key before you can lock it away and knocks that 1:4,000,000,000 down a bit to 1:4,000… what recourse do you have?

The entirety of the internet is built on these principles -- state records, finance, corporations, medical records, Elon's private stash, your digital twin. Similar to what you have done earlier in this thread, the problem you describe isn't remotely limited to bitcoin and yet I assure you, you are completely exposed to this is other areas of your life whether you like it or not.

Your doctor, your bank, your tax records, your energy use -- almost everything about you is on the internet either by you directly or by your agent. You should at least try to be intellectually honest here.

*** Grandstanding on moderation won't get you anywhere but a ban. If you want to contribute to the discussion, please do so without spamming the thread with excessive Twitter shots -- Staff ***

Rebel you sound like a never Trumper that's close to tossing out the "yeah well he said mean things on Twitter" because everything he's been accused of has been debunked. I think everyone would agree that the things you're tossing out CAN happen but they're significantly less likely than your identity being stolen, for example, which can be catastrophic.

The two biggest obstacles to a BTC centric economy are:
1. human beings. We're corrupt and power hungry. What is going to stop it are bureaucrats and politicians. Right now that's the US government and the Fed, the two most powerful entities on earth. If they wanted a BTC centric world tomorrow it would happen by Jan 1 but they don't because there's enormous power and wealth in the current dollar based fiat system.
2. Everyone else. What we've learned from the past three years is that people aren't interested in freedom but rather they want security or at least the illusion of security. Everything you've tossed out as a reason not to move away from the current fiat based world falls into this category. You like the security of hard metals, of bank insurance covering your losses, of the government covering the bank's losses and this is where virtually everyone else is as well. People want security above all else, we know that definitely at this point and BTC represents something far less than cradle to grave government backed security.

Those two Ryan's those alone are why this will never go the way the BTC crowd want it to go.

a BTC centric economy is not a requirement for bitcoin to be a success. it is better suited as an asset than a currency. when was the last time there was a gold centric economy? you're also giving the US government way too much credit, they can't figure out whether to scratch their watch or wind their ass and somehow they're going to take down a decentralized global network? not likely. what is more likely is that states will lead the way on bitcoin legislation just like they're doing with marijuana. and there are numerous states actively creating favorable legislation for bitcoin.

as for the majority of people who desire to be governed ever harder, they will be the laggards who figure it out too late. just like they do on everything else now.