We'd never shut down our entire country, force people to get vaccinated wear masks or they can't travel, arrest folk who decline.

That'd never happen here. Not in umpteen million years cuz MURKA is all bout freedom!

one safe place said:

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Adverse Event said:

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Imagine yourself, or your parents or grandparents toiling night and day to save a significant amount of wealth for retirement or for the future of their children. Now imagine that a random doxxed post on texags or Twitter or a verbal quip to a neighbor results in being reported to the CBDC Office.

After review, they've decided that you or your parents/gpatents are persona non grata. They remove your ability to access any of that stored value, they remove your ability to buy anything. If it's uncovered that you found a friendly neighbor or family member to subvert their policy, now the entire family and close contacts get removal of ability to buy anything.

THINK OF THE COMPLIANCE.

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lol, are you seriously fearful of this sort of thing happening here?

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As he stated, it's ongoing in China. Why not think it would happen here? Only thing that would stop it is an armed revolt if/when they try it.

I don't think it's certain but it's possible

When you look at some PE multiples one could argue many stocks are pure speculation as well

Nitro Power said:

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But I was told in October last year that it would be $150,000 by the end of 2021.....Did someone mislead me and now I am stuck with 100 bitcoins that I paid $52,000 for?

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That's how some folks made a small fortune….


Start out with a large fortune.

The government can ban vendors from accepting bitcoin too. Fine Wal-mart a few billion dollars for accepting bitcoin and suddenly nobody would be accepting bitcoin anymore. Then your live savings is worth nearly nothing.

BigOil said:

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When you look at some PE multiples one could argue many stocks are pure speculation as well

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Especially the "growth stocks" that do not pay out a dividend.

ac04 said:

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bmks270 said:

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Yes.

Bitcoin value is based on group psychology.

Fear.

1. FOMO
2. Fear that government backed currency will be devalued.

On point 2, we have record inflation and yet Bitcoin is at 2 year lows. Bitcoin as an inflation hedge has been proven wrong.

That leaves point number 1 being the main driver of the price.

And Bitcoin has run out of new adopters. When crypto has Super Bowl adds running then crypto and Bitcoin has achieved its maximum reach. Demand generated by finding new adopters has reached its end.

---

bitcoin is a hedge against monetary debasement (what inflation actually is), not consumer price increases.

there are something like 100 million people who own bitcoin. the idea that adoption has peaked with a global TAM is laughable.

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Then most of them have what, like .000017 bitcoin?

Ags4DaWin said:

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BigOil said:

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When you look at some PE multiples one could argue many stocks are pure speculation as well

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Especially the "growth stocks" that do not pay out a dividend.

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Especially bitcoin based companies.

I don't disagree that in the kind of speculative market there has been that there were quite a few scams.

Same thing happened with mining stocks in the American west.

Some got rich, some lost money. You have got to do your due diligence.

BTC, like anything else, follows the basic laws of economics.

It's value is only that which another person in a transaction perceives it to be. This is fundamental going all the way back to the days of bartering.

If BTC is allowed to keep going, the internal market of transactions will decide it's value against the dollar. And therein lies the fundamental problem. BTC is still underpinned by a fiat currency. It has zero value apart from that.

If the Fed gov't decides it doesn't want any competition with the CBDC and outright bans crypto transactions, what value does BTC have anymore? Zero, as it cannot be converted to the Federally recognized currency. Unless there is a wholly parallel, end to end underground economy, at some point, someone has to exchange BTC for dollars. If that transaction becomes illegal...well....

BTC is a tool. It has positives and negatives. But the problem with ALL cryptocurrencies is they are all still valued based upon a gov't fiat currency. None of us can escape this unless pure bartering, without any gov't intervention, becomes all the rage again, which I don't see happening.

It would be great if BTC were backed by a hard asset like gold, but what is gold valued in, dollars. Gold isn't worth 2 hefers or 4 sheep. it's worth dollars. Fiat currency.

The rich and powerful have set up a nice system for themselves.

Bitcoin's original mission was to be a decentralized deflationary currency. Then, due to volatility, it became a "store of value" like digital gold, with new stable coins to be used as currency. Now, Bitcoin is an asset class that needs central bank adoption and regulation to survive.

one safe place said:

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ac04 said:

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bmks270 said:

---

Yes.

Bitcoin value is based on group psychology.

Fear.

1. FOMO
2. Fear that government backed currency will be devalued.

On point 2, we have record inflation and yet Bitcoin is at 2 year lows. Bitcoin as an inflation hedge has been proven wrong.

That leaves point number 1 being the main driver of the price.

And Bitcoin has run out of new adopters. When crypto has Super Bowl adds running then crypto and Bitcoin has achieved its maximum reach. Demand generated by finding new adopters has reached its end.

---

bitcoin is a hedge against monetary debasement (what inflation actually is), not consumer price increases.

there are something like 100 million people who own bitcoin. the idea that adoption has peaked with a global TAM is laughable.

---

Then most of them have what, like .000017 bitcoin?

---

there are about 19.2 million bitcoin in existence. might want to check that math again.

Completely worthless. Please send all your bitcoin to me if you don't want it. I collect it for nostalgia as I'm a bit of a tech-nerd. You can DM me for a BTC wallet address.

Crypto fanboi thread. Cash is king

i-miss-the-republic said:

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Crypto fanboi thread. Cash is king

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Tell me, how much is a dollar worth?

This screams something.

Maybe someone can tell me.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott talks about creating a nurturing, low regulatory environment for Bitcoin in TX to thrive 🔥 pic.twitter.com/rRpf6YVtJU

— Trellz (@Trellraiser) November 29, 2022

CDUB98 said:

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If the Fed gov't decides it doesn't want any competition with the CBDC and outright bans crypto transactions, what value does BTC have anymore? Zero, as it cannot be converted to the Federally recognized currency. Unless there is a wholly parallel, end to end underground economy, at some point, someone has to exchange BTC for dollars. If that transaction becomes illegal...well....

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if there's one thing that alcohol, gold, drugs, guns, and terrorism have taught me, its that once the government bans something it is completely gone forever.

Got any links to this make-believe timeline?

i-miss-the-republic said:

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Crypto fanboi thread. Cash is king

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Assets in your own possession are king. Federal Reserve notes are just paper/digits on a screen representing a value at any given time.

CDUB98 said:

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i-miss-the-republic said:

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Crypto fanboi thread. Cash is king

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Tell me, how much is a dollar worth?

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$1.

Tell me how much Bitcoin is worth without using a government secured currency?

Internet magic beans... rather invest in collections of beanie babies

CDUB98 said:

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i-miss-the-republic said:

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Crypto fanboi thread. Cash is king

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Tell me, how much is a dollar worth?

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In cash? Worth about a buck and forty cents in my pocket.

aTmAg said:

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Don't worry, I understand it, and I do not invest in it either.

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I do, and I am holding it, and understanding it's high risk and high volatility. I accept it. Risks are on me. I could lose it all.

Cardano FTW

ac04 said:

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CDUB98 said:

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If the Fed gov't decides it doesn't want any competition with the CBDC and outright bans crypto transactions, what value does BTC have anymore? Zero, as it cannot be converted to the Federally recognized currency. Unless there is a wholly parallel, end to end underground economy, at some point, someone has to exchange BTC for dollars. If that transaction becomes illegal...well....

---

if there's one thing that alcohol, gold, drugs, guns, and terrorism have taught me, its that once the government bans something it is completely gone forever.

---

Because you can/could take all of those items to a person who wanted them an exchange them for dollars. Under CBDC, that becomes impossible if the government feels like it. They program the new currency to where that transaction literally can not happen. Not "your going to jail". More like "error: transaction invalid".

So you would left to barter your bitcoin for whatever non currency items you can get. But why would someone accept the trade if they can not launder that illicit trade back into currency for licit purchases? If the government operating CBDCs ever decided that crypto coins cannot be converted, it would require a full parallel economy for bitcoin to have any value.

I don't think bitcoin is the devil. I just don't believe it has any value in the end of cash scenarios we're looking at. Honestly nothing likely does, but some things like metals and goods will. It's highly unlikely the government would ever program the CBDCs to be unusable at your farmers market stand so vegetables would have more value that bitcoins. But if they wanted to ban that, they could.

The issue shouldn't be how bitcoin is useless. It should be that programmable CBDCs are evil incarnate.

TheEternalPessimist said:

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aTmAg said:

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Don't worry, I understand it, and I do not invest in it either.

---

I do, and I am holding it, and understanding it's high risk and high volatility. I accept it. Risks are on me. I could lose it all.

---

Do you think that someday it would be adopted as money? Replace the dollar and whatnot?

Quote:

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So you would left to barter your bitcoin for whatever non currency items you can get. But why would someone accept the trade if they can not launder that illicit trade back into currency for licit purchases? If the government operating CBDCs ever decided that crypto coins cannot be converted, it would require a full parallel economy for bitcoin to have any value.

---

your question is why would someone accept an alternative medium of exchange that is outside the CBDC control/surveillance scheme? i can think of about a million reasons.

this whole conversation is moot anyway, the government can't/won't ban bitcoin unless all world governments agree to do it at the same time due to prisoner's dilemma. considering governments within each country perpetually struggle to agree with each other on even the most menial and insignificant issues, i find this scenario extremely unrealistic.

Adverse Event said:

---

We'd never shut down our entire country, force people to get vaccinated wear masks or they can't travel, arrest folk who decline.

That'd never happen here. Not in umpteen million years cuz MURKA is all bout freedom!

---

Lol, it didn't shut down for me or for most I associate with, did not get vaccinated nor wear a mask, and did not get arrested.

Do you use soap when you wring your hands?

True believers are true believers, whether it be bigfoot, beanie babies, or bitcoin.

ac04 said:

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one safe place said:

---

ac04 said:

---

bmks270 said:

---

Yes.

Bitcoin value is based on group psychology.

Fear.

1. FOMO
2. Fear that government backed currency will be devalued.

On point 2, we have record inflation and yet Bitcoin is at 2 year lows. Bitcoin as an inflation hedge has been proven wrong.

That leaves point number 1 being the main driver of the price.

And Bitcoin has run out of new adopters. When crypto has Super Bowl adds running then crypto and Bitcoin has achieved its maximum reach. Demand generated by finding new adopters has reached its end.

---

bitcoin is a hedge against monetary debasement (what inflation actually is), not consumer price increases.

there are something like 100 million people who own bitcoin. the idea that adoption has peaked with a global TAM is laughable.

---

Then most of them have what, like .000017 bitcoin?

---

there are about 19.2 million bitcoin in existence. might want to check that math again.

---

Yet not everyone owns the exact amount of bitcoin. Your math would be not quite 1/5th of a bitcoin ON AVERAGE. Quite a few would own much less than that. See how math works?

ac04 said:

---

Quote:

---

So you would left to barter your bitcoin for whatever non currency items you can get. But why would someone accept the trade if they can not launder that illicit trade back into currency for licit purchases? If the government operating CBDCs ever decided that crypto coins cannot be converted, it would require a full parallel economy for bitcoin to have any value.

---

your question is why would someone accept an alternative medium of exchange that is outside the CBDC control/surveillance scheme? i can think of about a million reasons.

this whole conversation is moot anyway, the government can't/won't ban bitcoin unless all world governments agree to do it at the same time due to prisoner's dilemma. considering governments within each country perpetually struggle to agree with each other on even the most menial and insignificant issues, i find this scenario extremely unrealistic.

---

And here you see why the world economic forum and the UN are so important. UN to apply political pressure and the WEF to train young leaders to think the "right way".

Human nature being what it is means it is difficult to get everyone on the same page. But enough fear (Covid for example) can get everyone to adopt many of the same policies almost overnight. If we had a similar crisis in banking, we could see rapid adoption of CBDCs. Bitcoin banning would be downstream of that a ways and it would be specifically banned because of the black market it is used in. And as I said before, they won't have to criminalize it. The simply have to program the money digits in their computers to read as an error if someone attempted such a transaction.

one safe place said:

---

Adverse Event said:

---

We'd never shut down our entire country, force people to get vaccinated wear masks or they can't travel, arrest folk who decline.

That'd never happen here. Not in umpteen million years cuz MURKA is all bout freedom!

---

Lol, it didn't shut down for me or for most I associate with, did not get vaccinated nor wear a mask, and did not get arrested.

Do you use soap when you wring your hands?

True believers are true believers, whether it be bigfoot, beanie babies, or bitcoin.

---

This post...good grief.

BigOil said:

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When you look at some PE multiples one could argue many stocks are pure speculation as well

---

There are always stocks that are overvalued but most of them still have some worth, just not what they trade for presently.

one safe place said:

---

ac04 said:

---

one safe place said:

---

ac04 said:

---

bmks270 said:

---

Yes.

Bitcoin value is based on group psychology.

Fear.

1. FOMO
2. Fear that government backed currency will be devalued.

On point 2, we have record inflation and yet Bitcoin is at 2 year lows. Bitcoin as an inflation hedge has been proven wrong.

That leaves point number 1 being the main driver of the price.

And Bitcoin has run out of new adopters. When crypto has Super Bowl adds running then crypto and Bitcoin has achieved its maximum reach. Demand generated by finding new adopters has reached its end.

---

bitcoin is a hedge against monetary debasement (what inflation actually is), not consumer price increases.

there are something like 100 million people who own bitcoin. the idea that adoption has peaked with a global TAM is laughable.

---

Then most of them have what, like .000017 bitcoin?

---

there are about 19.2 million bitcoin in existence. might want to check that math again.

---

Yet not everyone owns the exact amount of bitcoin. Your math would be not quite 1/5th of a bitcoin ON AVERAGE. Quite a few would own much less than that. See how math works?

---

wow, are you a mathematician or something? extremely impressive. please tell me more about means and medians and then hit me with whatever amazing talking point you're working towards.

Ags4DaWin said:

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I don't disagree that in the kind of speculative market there has been that there were quite a few scams.

Same thing happened with mining stocks in the American west.

Some got rich, some lost money. You have got to do your due diligence.

---

The difference with mining stocks is that those companies have real value. Even if they currently offer no dividends, the expectation is that they someday will. Either that or the stock is a voting stock.

Yet bitcoin is like a stock that will never offer dividends nor votes (unless it defies logic and someday becomes money). If one thinks that BTC will never be money, then the ONLY reason to buy it is if you hope some other fool will buy it off of you for more later. To me that is unethical hell.