Bitcoin on the path to irrelevance?

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MemphisAg1
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8:23a, 11/30/22
AG
Passing along a link to this article that makes the case Bitcoin will remain on a downward trend.

Quote:
"Bitcoin's conceptual design and technological shortcomings make it questionable as a means of payment: real Bitcoin transactions are cumbersome, slow and expensive," they wrote. "Bitcoin has never been used to any significant extent for legal real-world transactions."

"Bitcoin is also not suitable as an investment. It does not generate cash flow (like real estate) or dividends (like equities), cannot be used productively (like commodities) or provide social benefits (like gold). The market valuation of Bitcoin is therefore based purely on speculation," they added.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/european-central-bank-says-bitcoin-is-on-the-road-to-irrelevance.html

I don't own any because I haven't resolved how to value it, and it's too volatile for my taste. I follow a hard rule of not investing in things I don't understand. That has served me well after some small, but impactful, lessons learned with investing earlier in life.

But I'm fascinated by the ongoing story of technology development, wealth creation and destruction.
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aTmAg
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8:26a, 11/30/22
AG
Don't worry, I understand it, and I do not invest in it either.
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Muy
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8:27a, 11/30/22
AG
None of it is really currency except for drug dealers, prostitution, and 3rd world unbankables.

In the US it's a collector's item that soon gets traded back to the dollar when someone feels they've made enough.
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Adverse Event
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8:29a, 11/30/22
Tell me what you guys know about CBDCs that are being tested in banks.

You won't have an option there.

Ah, nevermind it's opaque, the way people like it. No thinking needed.
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Adverse Event
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 8:36a, 11/30/22
MemphisAg1 said:
Passing along a link to this article that makes the case Bitcoin will remain on a downward trend.

Quote:
"Bitcoin's conceptual design and technological shortcomings make it questionable as a means of payment: real Bitcoin transactions are cumbersome, slow and expensive," they wrote. "Bitcoin has never been used to any significant extent for legal real-world transactions."

"Bitcoin is also not suitable as an investment. It does not generate cash flow (like real estate) or dividends (like equities), cannot be used productively (like commodities) or provide social benefits (like gold). The market valuation of Bitcoin is therefore based purely on speculation," they added.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/european-central-bank-says-bitcoin-is-on-the-road-to-irrelevance.html

I don't own any because I haven't resolved how to value it, and it's too volatile for my taste. I follow a hard rule of not investing in things I don't understand. That has served me well after some small, but impactful, lessons learned with investing earlier in life.

But I'm fascinated by the ongoing story of technology development, wealth creation and destruction.


Quote:
In a blogpost, ECB Director General Ulrich Bindseil and Analyst Jrgen Schaff said that bitcoin's recent price stabilization this week is likely an "artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance."

Bitcoin topped $17,000 Wednesday, marking a two-year high for the world's largest digital coin.

The remarks are timely, with the crypto industry reeling from one of its most catastrophic failures in recent history: the downfall of FTX.


So an employee of the ECB and proponent of CBDC (has written 2-3 posts on CBDCs) claims that bitcoin is irrelevant because bitcoin is repeating the same trends it has for 13 years.

Wonder if he has any conflict of interest writing this paper

Eh, CNBC only presents the truth, I'm not gonna worry about it.

Bitcoin is clearly not valuable because I read it.
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wbt5845
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8:38a, 11/30/22
AG
Bitcoin's highest best use is still for large, illegal transactions.
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rgag12
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8:40a, 11/30/22
AG
Blah blah blah blah, but fiat currencies, blah blah blah. I'm now broke because I invested in a speculative instrument
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Adverse Event
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In reply to wbt5845 • 8:43a, 11/30/22
wbt5845 said:
Bitcoin's highest best use is still for large, illegal transactions.


If you say something against the government and they say you can't spend their money anymore, illegal transactions sure do become infinitely more valuable.

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rocky the dog
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8:43a, 11/30/22
AG
Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
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LMCane
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8:45a, 11/30/22
WTF is this?

"Bitcoin topped $17,000 Wednesday, marking a two-year high for the world's largest digital coin."

Uh, BTC was at $66,000 barely a year ago.
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Kvetch
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In reply to Adverse Event • 8:55a, 11/30/22
AG
Adverse Event said:
wbt5845 said:
Bitcoin's highest best use is still for large, illegal transactions.


If you say something against the government and they say you can't spend their money anymore, illegal transactions sure do become infinitely more valuable.



So keep cash. Also, if the government starts confiscating fiat currency randomly and capriciously, they'll destroy the value of the currency which is not in their interest.

Crypto as a currency has always and will always be a speculative scam. A Bitcoin has no underlying value.
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aTmAg
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9:03a, 11/30/22
AG
The concept of "underlying value" is meaningless. Things either have value or they do not.

The dollar is not backed by anything either, but it still has a crapton of value as money (which is very damn useful).

Bitcoin does not have value as money, as people don't really use it that way. It's ONLY value is as a speculative asset. So owners of bitcoin are simply hoping to find a bigger fool to sell it to later. That is nonviable.
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Signel
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In reply to wbt5845 • 9:08a, 11/30/22
AG
wbt5845 said:
Bitcoin's highest best use is still for large, illegal transactions.
Same as cash?

Guess what they will get rid of next?

I am always amused by all the conservatives in here that don't see the value in having another asset class that that you can make money on that isn't controled by the government. You know, the one that we all complain about creating inflation at an inflating rate?

The real underlying value is the fact that it isn't managed by Biden and the Fed, or eventually whomever you dislike. So what if crack heads use it to buy their drugs.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to aTmAg • 9:08a, 11/30/22
AG
aTmAg said:
The concept of "underlying value" is meaningless. Things either have value or they do not.

The dollar is not backed by anything either, but it still has a crapton of value as money (which is very damn useful).

Bitcoin does not have value as money, as people don't really use it that way. It's ONLY value is as a speculative asset. So owners of bitcoin are simply hoping to find a bigger fool to sell it to later. That is nonviable.


It has value because it doesn't require trust, the basis of every other currency out there right now. It can be moved instantaneously, it doesn't corrode, it can be split into millions of smaller units. All which give it value. It's a non-depreciating asset.

I highly encourage everyone to get a little. Although I'm sure the same people detracting it now will still be detracting it in 2026 when is worth $70k because it fell all the way from $100k in 2025
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ac04
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9:10a, 11/30/22
horse buggy maker says cars on the path to irrelevance
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CDUB98
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In reply to rocky the dog • 9:10a, 11/30/22
AG
rocky the dog said:


There's an ounce of truth in this one.
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Nitro Power
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9:11a, 11/30/22
AG
But I was told in October last year that it would be $150,000 by the end of 2021.....Did someone mislead me and now I am stuck with 100 bitcoins that I paid $52,000 for?
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to Nitro Power • 9:13a, 11/30/22
AG
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Adverse Event
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In reply to Kvetch • 9:13a, 11/30/22
Kvetch said:
Adverse Event said:
wbt5845 said:
Bitcoin's highest best use is still for large, illegal transactions.


If you say something against the government and they say you can't spend their money anymore, illegal transactions sure do become infinitely more valuable.



So keep cash. Also, if the government starts confiscating fiat currency randomly and capriciously, they'll destroy the value of the currency which is not in their interest.

Crypto as a currency has always and will always be a speculative scam. A Bitcoin has no underlying value.


Is that where the disconnect is with some folk here? That physical cash is a permanent fixture that will never end?

That's the whole fkn point of the CBDC to remove cash from the system. To go FULL ON CCP SOCIAL CREDIT.

Like what mental barrier is this concept not getting through?


The magnitude of what is being proposed is just not getting through to you guys.


Imagine yourself, or your parents or grandparents toiling night and day to save a significant amount of wealth for retirement or for the future of their children. Now imagine that a random doxxed post on texags or Twitter or a verbal quip to a neighbor results in being reported to the CBDC Office.

After review, they've decided that you or your parents/gpatents are persona non grata. They remove your ability to access any of that stored value, they remove your ability to buy anything. If it's uncovered that you found a friendly neighbor or family member to subvert their policy, now the entire family and close contacts get removal of ability to buy anything.

THINK OF THE COMPLIANCE.

This has been happening for years in China already. I've tried to direct attention to the topic to educate and give tools for action for nearly a decade on this site.

Rub two brain cells together and get your **** together.
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Burdizzo
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In reply to rocky the dog • 9:14a, 11/30/22
AG
rocky the dog said:



I am holding out for BtchCoin. That's how I plan to pay my hos.
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aTmAg
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 9:16a, 11/30/22
AG
Definitely Not A Cop said:
aTmAg said:
The concept of "underlying value" is meaningless. Things either have value or they do not.

The dollar is not backed by anything either, but it still has a crapton of value as money (which is very damn useful).

Bitcoin does not have value as money, as people don't really use it that way. It's ONLY value is as a speculative asset. So owners of bitcoin are simply hoping to find a bigger fool to sell it to later. That is nonviable.


It has value because it doesn't require trust, the basis of every other currency out there right now. It can be moved instantaneously, it doesn't corrode, it can be split into millions of smaller units. All which give it value. It's a non-depreciating asset.
Yet none of that adds up to people using it as money. Only through becoming money does BTC gain the possibility of being viable. As long as it is volatile as hell, it will be a crappy long term store of value and therefore crappy at being money,

When the dollar loses it's role as the best currency (which it will), people will transition to the next best option. Is that bitcoin? Sure as hell doesn't seem that way. As even most BTC advocates have stopped making that claim. They now argue it is merely an investment.
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Adverse Event
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In reply to aTmAg • 9:17a, 11/30/22
Who is this "they" you speak of?

Money is bitcoin, bitcoin isn't money.

Bitcoin is a Swiss army knife of different things, money. Asset, investment is only a portion of the tools within.
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Kvetch
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In reply to Adverse Event • 9:18a, 11/30/22
AG
If that's the route they go, then we have bigger issues than cash. Also, paper money and gold will still be better black market alternatives than Bitcoin. If the government is going full gestapo, the last thing I need is a fully transparent blockchain of transactions.

There's no disconnect. I just don't buy into the Bitcoin fanboy talking points. It's like doomsday preppers but without accumulating any meaningful assets that will aid in survival. If we go full banana republic, your alternative currency ain't going to save you.
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javajaws
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 9:18a, 11/30/22
AG
Definitely Not A Cop said:
aTmAg said:
The concept of "underlying value" is meaningless. Things either have value or they do not.

The dollar is not backed by anything either, but it still has a crapton of value as money (which is very damn useful).

Bitcoin does not have value as money, as people don't really use it that way. It's ONLY value is as a speculative asset. So owners of bitcoin are simply hoping to find a bigger fool to sell it to later. That is nonviable.


It has value because it doesn't require trust, the basis of every other currency out there right now. It can be moved instantaneously, it doesn't corrode, it can be split into millions of smaller units. All which give it value. It's a non-depreciating asset.

I highly encourage everyone to get a little. Although I'm sure the same people detracting it now will still be detracting it in 2026 when is worth $70k because it fell all the way from $100k in 2025

Sure looks like a depreciating asset to me!




Also, it DOES require trust because it isn't backed by anything except the hope that it will maintain or increase in value. It's a speculative asset to invest in and it always will be.

And what is the point of "getting a little"? That's nothing more than suggesting someone buy some as an investment in the hopes of it gaining value. Which again proves the point it is nothing more than a speculative asset.
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Burdizzo
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 9:19a, 11/30/22
AG
Definitely Not A Cop said:
aTmAg said:
The concept of "underlying value" is meaningless. Things either have value or they do not.

The dollar is not backed by anything either, but it still has a crapton of value as money (which is very damn useful).

Bitcoin does not have value as money, as people don't really use it that way. It's ONLY value is as a speculative asset. So owners of bitcoin are simply hoping to find a bigger fool to sell it to later. That is nonviable.


It has value because it doesn't require trust, the basis of every other currency out there right now. It can be moved instantaneously, it doesn't corrode, it can be split into millions of smaller units. All which give it value. It's a non-depreciating asset.

I highly encourage everyone to get a little. Although I'm sure the same people detracting it now will still be detracting it in 2026 when is worth $70k because it fell all the way from $100k in 2025



How to tell someone you don't understand currency without using the words "I don't understand currency."
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ac04
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9:19a, 11/30/22
goods that monetize on the free market typically go through four stages. collectible, store of value, medium of exchange, unit of account. bitcoin is somewhere between one and two. remember bitcoin is only 13 years old and has grown from $0 to $300B along the way. there is going to be volatility. but volatility will decline as adoption increases and bitcoin continues along the path of monetization.

also, if bitcoin truly is on the path to irrelevance, why in the hell would the ECB feel any need to issue statements on it when they have much, much bigger issues at hand? consider the source and their motivation for this statement and what it implies.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to aTmAg • 9:21a, 11/30/22
AG
aTmAg said:
Definitely Not A Cop said:
aTmAg said:
The concept of "underlying value" is meaningless. Things either have value or they do not.

The dollar is not backed by anything either, but it still has a crapton of value as money (which is very damn useful).

Bitcoin does not have value as money, as people don't really use it that way. It's ONLY value is as a speculative asset. So owners of bitcoin are simply hoping to find a bigger fool to sell it to later. That is nonviable.


It has value because it doesn't require trust, the basis of every other currency out there right now. It can be moved instantaneously, it doesn't corrode, it can be split into millions of smaller units. All which give it value. It's a non-depreciating asset.
Yet none of that adds up to people using it as money. Only through becoming money does BTC gain the possibility of being viable. As long as it is volatile as hell, it will be a crappy long term store of value and therefore crappy at being money,

When the dollar loses it's role as the best currency (which it will), people will transition to the next best option. Is that bitcoin? Sure as hell doesn't seem that way. As even most BTC advocates have stopped making that claim. They now argue it is merely an investment.


I wasn't arguing that. I was pointing out that your statement that Bitcoin only has value as a speculative asset is ridiculous. I don't support it becoming a currency, but it has many things that make it a valuable one.

I would prefer our dollar was backed by it in 10-20 years
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to Burdizzo • 9:22a, 11/30/22
AG
Burdizzo said:
Definitely Not A Cop said:
aTmAg said:
The concept of "underlying value" is meaningless. Things either have value or they do not.

The dollar is not backed by anything either, but it still has a crapton of value as money (which is very damn useful).

Bitcoin does not have value as money, as people don't really use it that way. It's ONLY value is as a speculative asset. So owners of bitcoin are simply hoping to find a bigger fool to sell it to later. That is nonviable.


It has value because it doesn't require trust, the basis of every other currency out there right now. It can be moved instantaneously, it doesn't corrode, it can be split into millions of smaller units. All which give it value. It's a non-depreciating asset.

I highly encourage everyone to get a little. Although I'm sure the same people detracting it now will still be detracting it in 2026 when is worth $70k because it fell all the way from $100k in 2025



How to tell someone you don't understand currency without using the words "I don't understand currency."


Then please explain. Every currency does require a basic level of trust.

Bitcoin is trustless.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to javajaws • 9:23a, 11/30/22
AG
javajaws said:
Definitely Not A Cop said:
aTmAg said:
The concept of "underlying value" is meaningless. Things either have value or they do not.

The dollar is not backed by anything either, but it still has a crapton of value as money (which is very damn useful).

Bitcoin does not have value as money, as people don't really use it that way. It's ONLY value is as a speculative asset. So owners of bitcoin are simply hoping to find a bigger fool to sell it to later. That is nonviable.


It has value because it doesn't require trust, the basis of every other currency out there right now. It can be moved instantaneously, it doesn't corrode, it can be split into millions of smaller units. All which give it value. It's a non-depreciating asset.

I highly encourage everyone to get a little. Although I'm sure the same people detracting it now will still be detracting it in 2026 when is worth $70k because it fell all the way from $100k in 2025

Sure looks like a depreciating asset to me!




Also, it DOES require trust because it isn't backed by anything except the hope that it will maintain or increase in value. It's a speculative asset to invest in and it always will be.

And what is the point of "getting a little"? That's nothing more than suggesting someone buy some as an investment in the hopes of it gaining value. Which again proves the point it is nothing more than a speculative asset.


You should try zooming out your graph there.

It's backed by the energy it uses, and the profit incentive to verify transactions. Making it trustless.
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Burdizzo
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 9:27a, 11/30/22
AG
Definitely Not A Cop said:
Burdizzo said:
Definitely Not A Cop said:
aTmAg said:
The concept of "underlying value" is meaningless. Things either have value or they do not.

The dollar is not backed by anything either, but it still has a crapton of value as money (which is very damn useful).

Bitcoin does not have value as money, as people don't really use it that way. It's ONLY value is as a speculative asset. So owners of bitcoin are simply hoping to find a bigger fool to sell it to later. That is nonviable.


It has value because it doesn't require trust, the basis of every other currency out there right now. It can be moved instantaneously, it doesn't corrode, it can be split into millions of smaller units. All which give it value. It's a non-depreciating asset.

I highly encourage everyone to get a little. Although I'm sure the same people detracting it now will still be detracting it in 2026 when is worth $70k because it fell all the way from $100k in 2025



How to tell someone you don't understand currency without using the words "I don't understand currency."


Then please explain. Every currency does require a basic level of trust.

Bitcoin is trustless.



Please accept thin air as tender for your goods and services. It has the same amount of trust at Bitcoin.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to Burdizzo • 9:28a, 11/30/22
AG
Ah, so credit cards aren't real money either, by your logic.

We can be done with the discussion.
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Kvetch
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 9:30a, 11/30/22
AG
Definitely Not A Cop said:
javajaws said:
Definitely Not A Cop said:
aTmAg said:
The concept of "underlying value" is meaningless. Things either have value or they do not.

The dollar is not backed by anything either, but it still has a crapton of value as money (which is very damn useful).

Bitcoin does not have value as money, as people don't really use it that way. It's ONLY value is as a speculative asset. So owners of bitcoin are simply hoping to find a bigger fool to sell it to later. That is nonviable.


It has value because it doesn't require trust, the basis of every other currency out there right now. It can be moved instantaneously, it doesn't corrode, it can be split into millions of smaller units. All which give it value. It's a non-depreciating asset.

I highly encourage everyone to get a little. Although I'm sure the same people detracting it now will still be detracting it in 2026 when is worth $70k because it fell all the way from $100k in 2025

Sure looks like a depreciating asset to me!




Also, it DOES require trust because it isn't backed by anything except the hope that it will maintain or increase in value. It's a speculative asset to invest in and it always will be.

And what is the point of "getting a little"? That's nothing more than suggesting someone buy some as an investment in the hopes of it gaining value. Which again proves the point it is nothing more than a speculative asset.


You should try zooming out your graph there.

It's backed by the energy it uses, and the profit incentive to verify transactions. Making it trustless.


So volatile asset is backed by volatile asset that is subject to manipulation by OPEC+. Sounds like a GREAT alternative. At least now only real thing that endangers my wealth is the idiocy of elected leaders and self governance. That's much more stable than the energy market with all its bad actors.
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aTmAg
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In reply to Adverse Event • 9:30a, 11/30/22
AG
Adverse Event said:
Who is this "they" you speak of?

Money is bitcoin, bitcoin isn't money.

Bitcoin is a Swiss army knife of different things, money. Asset, investment is only a portion of the tools within.
What the hell does "money is bitcoin" supposed to mean?

That's like saying "mammal is cat". Or more accurately, "mammal is goldfish".

Something being money means that it has certain qualities such as being a good long term store, being divisible, etc. Things are either good at being money or they are suck at it. Bitcoin sucks at it. Which is why nobody uses it as money. Which is what bitcoin was created to be in the first place. The Swiss army of things things do not matter unless it has all the qualities that make it good as money. Bitcoin doesn't.
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Adverse Event
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In reply to Burdizzo • 9:30a, 11/30/22
Please accept these 1's and 0's from an IOU from my bank.

Oh I'm sorry, it looks like you bought excess fuel outside of your limit. We've already notified the authorities.
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Kvetch
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 9:31a, 11/30/22
AG
Definitely Not A Cop said:
Ah, so credit cards aren't real money either, by your logic.

We can be done with the discussion.


Credit cards are not thin air. TF are you talking about.
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