They probably are banking on Russia pulling troops from another area to deal with the SF's in their rear. If they don't commit troops to clear them out they continue to harass the flanks and rear. This leaves less troops to to defend where the main assault will be happening.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Tonight on 🇷🇺 TV, anchor Dmitry Kiselyov justifies the Kherson retreat as a move aimed at "saving people" (i.e. 🇷🇺 troops)
— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) November 13, 2022
Which of course raises the question of why Putin launched the invasion at all
This is also the closest I've seen state TV come to linking Putin to the move pic.twitter.com/MeO6PArv97
Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1591768061513957379.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1591768061513957379.html
Is Russia withdrawing missiles for S-300/400 SAM systems from Belarus?
— Belarusian Hajun project (@MotolkoHelp) November 13, 2022
Over the past two days, 8 IL-76 of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Machulishchy airfield from Russia. These are 2 flights with 4 aircraft: RF-76605, RA-76767, RA-78789 and RF-76731.
1/9 pic.twitter.com/MSgzta5aNP
Well at least they admit it's not theirs.
Kherson has been removed from the weather forecast on Russian television NTV 🤡 pic.twitter.com/b2kGNVpmgO
— Tarmo 🇨🇿 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 NAFO (@TarmoFella) November 13, 2022
Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1591976877366956033.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1591976877366956033.html
2/ This observation offered by Andriy Zagorodnyuk, chairman of the Ukrainian Center of Defense Strategies, is the likeliest explanation for the resumption in the intensity of Russian offensive operations first around #Bakhmut and then to the southwest around the #Vuhledar area.
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) November 14, 2022
Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1591938696282255360.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1591938696282255360.html
2/ A large portion of the cost of mobilisation is being paid by Russia's regions. Many are paying a one-time allowance to the men and their families to enable them to cover the cost of the men's absence. The Russian federal budget covers the war's direct costs.
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) November 13, 2022
The very definition of cannon fodder. I do feel bad for those poor families that are forced to send their children, fathers, and grandfathers off to die for a madman.Rossticus said:
Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1591938696282255360.html2/ A large portion of the cost of mobilisation is being paid by Russia's regions. Many are paying a one-time allowance to the men and their families to enable them to cover the cost of the men's absence. The Russian federal budget covers the war's direct costs.
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) November 13, 2022
under which the russians like to hide their vehicles from Excalibur shells, and best of all: freezing russians huddling in easy to spot and bomb houses.
— Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) November 13, 2022
It's the ideal time to smash the russians harder than ever before. Fighting will actually pick up once the ground freezes.
2/2 pic.twitter.com/4pNBBh3NOp
Rossticus said:Very special operation forces? https://t.co/ErVwgJtruz
— Def Mon (@DefMon3) November 14, 2022
I swear, back in the day, me and my neighborhood friends stole my dads vhs camera and made a video just like this. I need to go back and find it.
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Russia is about to lose some more territory.
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Quote:
Putin signed a decree allowing military conscription of foreign citizens into the Russian Armed Forces
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/14-november-putin-signed-a-decree-allowing-military-conscription
Quote:
The White House: The Director of US Intelligence did not discuss with his Russian counterpart the settlement of the war in Ukraine
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/14-november-the-white-house-the-director-of-us-intelligence
Official flag-raising in Kherson with the participation of the President of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/djFHbFRbCB
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 14, 2022
Loved his line, "Russians using Scooby Doo vans to transport their most vital supplies."
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Yep. I almost spit out my morning tea when I heard that.
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Russian sources say that the battle in Russian-occupied Luhansk has severely intensified today. Kreminna is directly attacked from the forest, artillery strikes on Svatove and a push from Makiivka. Together with the fighting in Kuzemivka yesterday this might be something bigger. pic.twitter.com/hJVB8J37qV
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 14, 2022
The mayor of Oleshky hinted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine returned Oleshky under the control of Ukrainian Armed Forces.
— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) November 14, 2022
The information is preliminary, but if it is true, it means that the Armed Forces have already crossed the Dnipro and are on the left bank. pic.twitter.com/BU1DXFafcp
It looked like Uke SOF were in RIBs going under artillery fire to get onto the peninsula. From there I imagine they would collect intel and maybe do some probing attacks. Typical RIBs can only fit 8 people and from the videos I saw there may have been about 10 boats so roughly 80 passengers, hardly enough to take a city. It seems Ukraine must have somehow found a way to get a decent amount of troops across another way if they are taking cities already
Waffledynamics said:Quote:
Putin signed a decree allowing military conscription of foreign citizens into the Russian Armed Forces
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/14-november-putin-signed-a-decree-allowing-military-conscription
Putin about to have Africa start shipping him cannon fodder for cash.
Or the Russians are running at the first sign of contact
NATO Secretary General: "We should not make the mistake of underestimating Russia. The Russian armed forces retain significant capabilities and a large number of personnel...The next months will be difficult"
— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) November 14, 2022
2/ In Novoraisk, Kherson region, Russian invaders destroyed and looted the base of the Ukrlandfarming company. Damages are estimated at 250-270 million US dollars.
— Oleksiy Goncharenko (@GoncharenkoUa) November 13, 2022
4/ In addition, Russia also damaged the largest poultry factory in Europe, "Chornobaivska", which belongs to the company "Ukrlandfarming". More than 4 million adult chickens and about 700,000 young chickens died without being able to dispose of them.
— Oleksiy Goncharenko (@GoncharenkoUa) November 13, 2022
CIA chief attended the meeting, there he conveyed a message warning of the "consequences of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, and the risks of escalation to strategic stability", according to a white house spokesperson
— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) November 14, 2022
Meeting was not about a settlement in Ukraine
BREAKING: Russian and US delegations holding talks in Turkey - Kommersant
— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) November 14, 2022
This meeting has not been publicly announced before. The source has so far declined to provide details of the talks. - Kommnersant
— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) November 14, 2022
Kremlin says that they can neither confirm nor deny the talks with the US in Turkey
— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) November 14, 2022
(via @PriapusIQ) pic.twitter.com/AZCMfUjT7Q
Thank you @JustinTrudeau & 🇨🇦 people for CAD500 million in defense aid to 🇺🇦. This again proves that 🇺🇦 & 🇨🇦 are true allies who share common values & have the same goals. We’ll always remember the help provided by the fraternal 🇨🇦 in the most difficult times. Together we’ll win!
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 14, 2022
Zambia has asked Russia to explain how one of its citizens who had been serving a 9-year prison sentence in Moscow ended up being killed in Ukraine, Zambia's Foreign Minister Kakubo said on Monday.
— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) November 14, 2022
(Reuters)
I wonder how far a sack of potatos and a bottle of vodka will go in Zambia? Isn't that the going rate for a Mobik?Rossticus said:Zambia has asked Russia to explain how one of its citizens who had been serving a 9-year prison sentence in Moscow ended up being killed in Ukraine, Zambia's Foreign Minister Kakubo said on Monday.
— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) November 14, 2022
(Reuters)
They have plenty of boats, particularly civilian ones, they could have brought up. Even helicopters. With Russians pulling back so fast, their closer air defenses were probably in chaos.
If I was Ukraine, I would push up north somewhere and make a lot of noise, then drive hard in the south to cut off Crimea. Force that logistical disaster in Winter when it will hit fastest and hardest.
If I was Ukraine, I would push up north somewhere and make a lot of noise, then drive hard in the south to cut off Crimea. Force that logistical disaster in Winter when it will hit fastest and hardest.
Breaking 💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻
— MAKS 22🇺🇦 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) November 14, 2022
The EU has officially launched a training mission for the Ukrainian military on its territory, the presidency of the Czech Republic.
15,000 military personnel will undergo training.
Well worth watching. There are points to quibble with, but his overall perspective seems right on to me.Red Pear Realty said:
Russia is about to lose some more territory.
"Amateurs study strategy, professional study logistics." General of the Army Omar Bradley
That spit controls the entrance to Mikolaiv's harbor. Ukraine wants to use that harbor. Controlling the spit also screens the littorals much of the way to Odessa.Rossticus said:Russian media RosZMI reports that on November 12, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the territory of the Kinburn Spit to the village of Herois'ke
— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) November 13, 2022
Waiting for visual and official confirmation from the General Staff pic.twitter.com/OrwJYuAe1yUkrainian SOF have already been working in these areas across the Dnipro.
— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) November 13, 2022
Something to keep in mind for the future.
MAP
Maybe control the mouth so UKR can get boats from Odessa side of bay unseen up into the Dnipro.Waffledynamics said:
I'm skeptical that the Kinburn Spit activity is actually a sincere operation. I'm a layman, though. Why would Ukraine go to such a small peninsula that would be easy to cut off? Could it be a diversion?
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Total layman's guess but would like to hear opinions:
- getting the Kherson forces killed has been said to be a political disaster for Putin so he pulled them out.
- he'll send them east to stop the UKR advances there and possibly try to take back territory
- he'll reinforce defenses at the Crimean border and give up the left side of the river territory
- getting the Kherson forces killed has been said to be a political disaster for Putin so he pulled them out.
- he'll send them east to stop the UKR advances there and possibly try to take back territory
- he'll reinforce defenses at the Crimean border and give up the left side of the river territory
You can also stage their UCV sea bombs significantly closer which would put the Russian fleet and shipping more at risk or force them back or be more cautious with those assets.JFABNRGR said:Maybe control the mouth so UKR can get boats from Odessa side of bay unseen up into the Dnipro.Waffledynamics said:
I'm skeptical that the Kinburn Spit activity is actually a sincere operation. I'm a layman, though. Why would Ukraine go to such a small peninsula that would be easy to cut off? Could it be a diversion?
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