***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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AgBank
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In reply to txags92 • 1:17p, 11/14/22
AG
Don't kid yourself. That Zambia citizen was pressed into service.
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:19p, 11/14/22
AG
Rossticus said:


If this is early on, don't mock an opponent for training - don't know how far in they are. Unless you are chechan and all shots are fired while shouting inshallah in which this training is all too unnecessary.
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txags92
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In reply to AgBank • 1:19p, 11/14/22
AG
AgBank said:
Don't kid yourself. That Zambia citizen was pressed into service.
Oh, I know. But so were alot of the random citizens they grabbed off the streets at various places around Russia. Supposedly the regional administrators are having to pay families with local commodities because there is no cash available to pay them what they were supposed to receive.
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Rossticus
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1:25p, 11/14/22

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Rossticus
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1:33p, 11/14/22
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txags92
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:39p, 11/14/22
AG
Rossticus said:

That is a bit of a slippery slope to try to do that through the UN. If we aren't careful, they will pass one demanding that we pay to replace everything that got blown up in Iraq and Afghanistan while we were there (even if it wasn't us blowing it up). And one requiring Israel to pay to fix all the stuff they have blown up on Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.
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Rossticus
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1:40p, 11/14/22
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Rossticus
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1:51p, 11/14/22


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Fitch
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:54p, 11/14/22
AG
Read an article over the weekend that the announcement of "civilian evacuations" in Kherson several weeks back involved a number of military brass changing into civilian clothes and crossing the river in disguise. Would be strange to see the same happen in these northern cities given the main (only?) supply line is there.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Fitch • 1:59p, 11/14/22
I think we're about to see Russia fall back to more easily defensible lines with supply routes Ukraine will have a more difficult time severing/interdicting during the coming winter. They'll hope to hunker down and protect southern and eastern gains while trying to negotiate to keep them in a peace settlement. IMO, at least.
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Rossticus
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1:59p, 11/14/22
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74OA
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:01p, 11/14/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
I'm skeptical that the Kinburn Spit activity is actually a sincere operation. I'm a layman, though. Why would Ukraine go to such a small peninsula that would be easy to cut off? Could it be a diversion?
See map posted at bottom of page 927.
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DCPD158
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:04p, 11/14/22
AG
Rossticus said:
I think we're about to see Russia fall back to more easily defensible lines with supply routes Ukraine will have a more difficult time severing/interdicting during the coming winter. They'll hope to hunker down and protect southern and eastern gains while trying to negotiate to keep them in a peace settlement. IMO, at least.
I see the ill-equipped RU conscript getting brutalized when winter shows up. Cold and under-suppied is going to sap the will to even defend static positions. Cold and hungry make for horrible soldiers. The ground will be hard and easy to traverse for armor and artillery. I can see Ukraine troops pushing a winter offensive.
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Rossticus
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In reply to DCPD158 • 2:13p, 11/14/22
That's what I'm expecting and most Ukrainian analysts have predicted exactly what you've stated.
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javajaws
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2:28p, 11/14/22
AG
There looks to be an easy defensible line going north/south from Melitopol -> Tokmak -> Orikhiv with some natural boundaries along that line making it an easy line to defend from the east. I would expect them to come down from the North and take everything west of that line via a Winter offensive.
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74OA
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2:49p, 11/14/22
AG
Good. "Unlike recent packages of sanctions imposed on Russia-based firms and people, the latest financial and diplomatic penalties are aimed at a range of entities including French real estate companies, a group of Swiss nationals and a Taiwanese microelectronic component purchaser."

NEW SANCTIONS
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74OA
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In reply to txags92 • 3:17p, 11/14/22
AG
txags92 said:
Rossticus said:

That is a bit of a slippery slope to try to do that through the UN. If we aren't careful, they will pass one demanding that we pay to replace everything that got blown up in Iraq and Afghanistan while we were there (even if it wasn't us blowing it up). And one requiring Israel to pay to fix all the stuff they have blown up on Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.
The UN has always differentiated between aggressors and those responding to aggression.
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74OA
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In reply to Rossticus • 3:19p, 11/14/22
AG
Rossticus said:

Excellent. The $350B of Russian money frozen in western banks will be a good start towards compensating Ukraine for the destruction wreaked by Putin's aggression.

Now press Switzerland to cough up the billions of Russian money stashed in its banks, too.
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txags92
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In reply to 74OA • 3:27p, 11/14/22
AG
74OA said:
txags92 said:
Rossticus said:

That is a bit of a slippery slope to try to do that through the UN. If we aren't careful, they will pass one demanding that we pay to replace everything that got blown up in Iraq and Afghanistan while we were there (even if it wasn't us blowing it up). And one requiring Israel to pay to fix all the stuff they have blown up on Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.
The UN has always differentiated between aggressors and those responding to aggression.
There is a sizable portion of their membership that believes the US was the aggressor in Iraq (even if we were enforcing UN resolutions) and Israel is the aggressor anytime they act.
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Rossticus
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3:29p, 11/14/22
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FriscoKid
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3:35p, 11/14/22
AG
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FriscoKid
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3:39p, 11/14/22
AG


Reminds me of the scene in Band of Brothers when Winters crossed over the hill and saw nothing but Germans below him and he was all alone.
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Rossticus
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3:42p, 11/14/22
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Rossticus
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3:43p, 11/14/22
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Rossticus
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3:45p, 11/14/22
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to 80sGeorge • 3:50p, 11/14/22
AG
80sGeorge said:
Total layman's guess but would like to hear opinions:

- getting the Kherson forces killed has been said to be a political disaster for Putin so he pulled them out.

- he'll send them east to stop the UKR advances there and possibly try to take back territory

- he'll reinforce defenses at the Crimean border and give up the left side of the river territory
My 2 cents.

Mostly all the above but there will not be any more territory gains, these skirmishes are simply part of the defensive plan.

There certainly appears to be a strategic shift from taking Ukraine as a whole, to most of the East and South, to now focusing on keeping control of the East to include the SE on the Azov Sea; Melitopul/Mariupol given them a land bridge to Crimea and all of the resources that land holds Ag/O&G/Mining/ETC.

The russian fall back from this will certainly be defending Crimea and the Donbass in that order and at that point I suspect the war will mostly be over and back to 2014 lines, though my prayer is that they take back Crimea and the cities on the Sea of Azov which is pre 2014. The Donbass can stay or go for me and if Ukraine gets Crimea back I don't think they will care to much about Donbass.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Rossticus
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4:07p, 11/14/22

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Rossticus
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4:13p, 11/14/22
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Rossticus
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4:27p, 11/14/22
But… why?

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Rossticus
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4:38p, 11/14/22


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Rossticus
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4:41p, 11/14/22
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TRM
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:45p, 11/14/22
AG
This just in - Russian soldier with rabies.
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Rossticus
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In reply to TRM • 4:46p, 11/14/22
TRM said:
This just in - Russian soldier with rabies.


"Captured Ukrainian raccoon reportedly thankful his rabies vaccinations are up to date"
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CondensedFogAggie
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:38p, 11/14/22
Rossticus said:
But… why?


You know what, take all the ****ing racoons you want, just GTFO of Ukraine. In fact, the US will gladly donate a few million of them if you want.

Also,

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Rossticus
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5:39p, 11/14/22
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