***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,934,555 Views | 48542 Replies | Last: 10 hrs ago by Waffledynamics
Faustus
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2:34p, 10/4/22
Rossticus
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2:35p, 10/4/22
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javajaws
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 2:35p, 10/4/22
AG
SwigAg11 said:
I honestly didn't think anyone would be that stupid, but here we are.
Instead of using an actual nuclear weapon I find it much more likely that they engineer an "accident" at that power plant.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
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Rossticus
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2:39p, 10/4/22
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ATX_AG_08
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3:39p, 10/4/22
AG
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ATX_AG_08
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3:46p, 10/4/22
AG
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bonfarr
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:19p, 10/4/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
bonfarr said:
Does this end in a stalemate with Ukraine kicking the Russians ass all the way back to Crimea and Russia digging in and fortifying?

I don't see how the Ukes could launch a large invasion of Crimea unless they have some incredible amphibious capability we haven't seen yet.

Neither side is going to be willing to give up Crimea. The land is too valuable and Russia would have to remove its fleet from Sevastopol as that shared arrangement is untenable now.



Already more or less done. They moved it East to Novorossiysk a while ago when Ukraine started making it clear that Crimea is not safe for it.

Russia's had degradation in use of Crimea for air and sea power since the Ukrainian attacks there. I believe this was back in July.

As for a Ukrainian attack on Crimea, I'm sure we'll see the Kerch Bridge targeted when the Ukrainians are ready to kick that off.


How does attacking the bridge extract the Russians from Crimea? The Russian Navy could still supply the peninsula with supplies men and material.
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be accepted at face value.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to bonfarr • 4:25p, 10/4/22
AG
The loading ships would be sitting ducks from drones and Neptune missiles when they get in range. Earlier in the war Ukraine hit several troop ships and now Russia has has less defense options against them. Russia relies on rail more than any other logistical option, take that out and cripple their supply chain
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Rossticus
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4:45p, 10/4/22
Interesting…

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JFABNRGR
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4:58p, 10/4/22
AG
Momentum!

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Not a Bot
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5:07p, 10/4/22
AG


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aggiehawg
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In reply to Not a Bot • 5:09p, 10/4/22
AG
Obligatory: When you've lost Iran....
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Not a Bot
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5:11p, 10/4/22
AG
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torrid
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In reply to Not a Bot • 5:11p, 10/4/22
AG
Private PoopyPants said:


What say you Syria?
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Not a Bot
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5:12p, 10/4/22
AG
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Rossticus
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 5:14p, 10/4/22
Tee-hee
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to aggiehawg • 5:16p, 10/4/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Obligatory: When you've lost Iran....
I guess that means the orc check bounced!
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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lb3
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In reply to Not a Bot • 5:18p, 10/4/22
AG
Between these and the HIMARS with180k tungsten darts, Ukraine is about to shut the door on Kherson and throw away the key.
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Rossticus
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5:19p, 10/4/22
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2wealfth Man
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 5:20p, 10/4/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
Momentum!

Wow, they are going for the absolute skull crush. Time is the only ally Putin has at this point; why give it to him.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 5:27p, 10/4/22
AG
Unless there is an update issue with the map. There is almost NO russian Artillery fires anywhere along the line. If this is true plus the rapid advances on multiple fronts this thing maybe in large part over in a week with a total collapse of the invader armies. No C&C plus no support while receiving accurate and deadly fires from multiple fronts on an unmotivated occupier. As FDR said maybe the "end of the beginning" was a week or two back....at least to pre february invasion lines.

https://liveuamap.com/

UPDATE SEE WAFFLEDYNAMICS CORRECTION COMMENT FURTHER DOWN. Still seems lite bur far from non-existent as I incorrectly stated above.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Not a Bot
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5:27p, 10/4/22
AG
Sorry I didn't see the post above
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Not a Bot
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In reply to aggiehawg • 5:28p, 10/4/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Obligatory: When you've lost Iran....


No worries. They still have North Korea and maybe Zimbabwe.
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Malibu
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 5:29p, 10/4/22
From everything I've heard about how dug in Russian defensive lines are, count me a skeptical that this is accurate that AFU are actually trying to capture the flag right now. I would be absolutely delighted if it's accurate though!
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Rossticus
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5:30p, 10/4/22
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Not a Bot
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In reply to Malibu • 5:31p, 10/4/22
AG
It's entirely possible. They can be dug in but have little morale, equipment, etc. Unlike the east though Russia has put more of their regular military there, but apparently one of their better groups was already overrun the other day. I guess we will see what happens.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 5:35p, 10/4/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
Unless there is an update issue with the map. There is almost NO russian Artillery fires anywhere along the line. If this is true plus the rapid advances on multiple fronts this thing maybe in large part over in a week with a total collapse of the invader armies. No C&C plus no support while receiving accurate and deadly fires from multiple fronts on an unmotivated occupier. As FDR said maybe the "end of the beginning" was a week or two back....at least to pre february invasion lines.

https://liveuamap.com/
Scroll down to the end of the feed and hit "show previous". It will show you reports of artillery shelling. There were just enough updates posted today that they got pushed off the feed.
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Malibu
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In reply to Not a Bot • 5:35p, 10/4/22
Oh absolutely I think Russia fails for all those reasons, I'm just shocked if AFU is on their way to liberate Kherson today. If true, this is one of the most epic collapses of all time, worse than Sumlins 2nd half at UCLA.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to Malibu • 5:35p, 10/4/22
AG
Malibu2 said:
From everything I've heard about how dug in Russian defensive lines are, count me a skeptical that this is accurate that AFU are actually trying to capture the flag right now. I would be absolutely delighted if it's accurate though!
Mix a few of these up and down the trenches and it won't matter. The white flag will be raised from the trenches.

  • M30A1 rockets with Alternative Warhead (AW). Range: 1592 kilometres (9.357.2 mi). GMLRS rocket that replaces the M30's submunitions with approximately 182,000 pre-formed tungsten fragments for area effects without unexploded ordnance.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System#cite_note-54][54][/url] Entered production in 2015.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System#cite_note-Turner-52][52][/url][url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System#cite_note-Marine_Corps_Gazette-43][43][/url]
  • M30A2 rockets with Alternative Warhead (AW). Range: 1592 kilometres (9.357.2 mi). Improved M30A1 with Insensitive Munition Propulsion System (IMPS). Only M30 variant in production since 2019.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System#cite_note-gmlrs-munitions-2019-sar-55][55][/url]
  • M31 rockets with 200 pounds (91 kg) high-explosive unitary warhead. Range: 1592 kilometres (9.357.2 mi). Entered production in 2005. The warhead is produced by General Dynamics and contains 51 pounds of PBX-109 high explosive in a steel blast-fragmentation case.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System#cite_note-56][56][/url]
  • M31A1 rockets with 200 pounds (91 kg) high-explosive unitary warhead. Range: 1592 kilometres (9.357.2 mi). Improved M31 with new multi-mode fuze that added airburst to the M31's fuze point detonation and delay.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System#cite_note-57][57][/url]
  • M31A2 rockets with 200 pounds (91 kg) high-explosive unitary warhead. Range: 1592 kilometres (9.357.2 mi). Improved M31A1 with Insensitive Munition Propulsion System (IMPS). Only M31 variant in production since 2019.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System#cite_note-gmlrs-munitions-2019-sar-55][55][/url]
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Rossticus
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5:36p, 10/4/22
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2wealfth Man
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:37p, 10/4/22
AG
Rossticus said:
that's going to become a one-sided video game of epic proportions for the Ukrainian artillery. Drop a few artillery beacons in there and let her rip.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 5:37p, 10/4/22
AG
Has it been confirmed that the soft-target ordinance has already made it to Ukraine?
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Rossticus
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5:42p, 10/4/22
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 5:44p, 10/4/22
AG
Well as far as SM/News sources say yes. PICs of staged rockets have been shown but I cannot confirm with authenticity. Even the most expensive of grenades need real world effectiveness data.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Rossticus
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5:49p, 10/4/22
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