***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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FriscoKid
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11:54a, 10/4/22
AG
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1577324136220839937.html

Discussion on how the Russians are trapped with few good options.

Quote:
Retreating to the Inhulets would be what a complete moron does... so the russians will do it.


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AgLA06
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In reply to The Fife • 11:55a, 10/4/22
AG
The topic was the torpedo launched nukes that create tidal waves. That's why we were talking about large cities on the coast. Not ICBMs.
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Ulysses90
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In reply to GarryowenAg • 11:56a, 10/4/22
AG
GarryowenAg said:
I don't recall seeing this on the earlier pages, so forgive me if it's already been posted.


This assessment, to me, provides clarity as to why the Ukes have been so efficient with all the aid given to them by various countries, and confirms US and NATO partnerships have proven quite beneficial since it began in 2014.

That's a really important point. Telenko's long thread on GIS ARTA from back in May explains how their cloud based app can crowd-source targeting data from anyone with a smart phone. Obviously, you want some means of authenticating the person submitting a photo of a target but they can assign a low "figure of merit" to information submitted by multiple unknown and unauthenticated observers or a high figure of merit (FOM) to a target submitted form a known and authenticated observer.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1523791050313433088.html

This lets the Ukrainian Fires Cell use targeting information that is coming from any partisan with a cell phone in the occupied regions. If they want to examine a low FOM to verify the information they can send a drone or another observer to corroborate the information before attacking it. It's a far more elegant and simpler approach than the US AFATDS (more accurately described as Anachronistic F****ing Artillery Tactical Data System).




This is a second Telenko thread on the complementary capabilities of GIS Arta combined with Starlink.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1533971725951672322.html
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Nagler • 11:56a, 10/4/22
AG
Nagler said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
Nagler said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
LMCane said:
fullback44 said:
Private PoopyPants said:
aggiehawg said:
Private PoopyPants said:
The sub carries this supposed cobalt nuclear torpedo which is designed to detonate offshore. The shaped blast would theoretically cause a massive tsunami of radioactive water to engulf a coastal city. Fun times.
Theoretically, how massive of a tsunami? 20 feet? 30 feet? 100 feet? What is the yield on that. if you know.
Theoretically, the tsunami could be over a kilometer high depending on yield and other factors like seafloor geography and distance from the detonation. That being said, the yield is likely far, far lower. The danger in these things is they travel very slowly and don't make much noise so they are difficult to track until they are close to the target and begin their final acceleration pattern before detonation. The cobalt causes increased radioactive fallout in the water. While an underwater detonation largely protects the surface and atmosphere from radiation, the seabed would be contaminated for decades and the radioactive salts would filter through along the coastline along an extended range.
Are the Russians really stupid enough to basically poison the entire Black Sea or the Sea of Azov? They would piss off a lot more people than just the Ukraine, starting with Turkey, Turkey may cut them off completely from using the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits …. It would be load gun, ready, aim, SHOOT… foot falls off

Not to also mention if this tsunami did work and went the wrong direction towards all of Turkeys shorelines… Ruskies would essentially screw themselves

what makes you think they would use the Belgorod against Odessa?

could be they use it against New York City or Miami, or Jacksonville, or Charleston.

Because we would retaliate. It would either be an ultimatum to arrest Putin and all of his advisors and give them over to US custody or face a nuclear attack, we take Kaliningrad and send forces into Ukraine/Russia, or a straight nuclear response against a Russian city. There would be catastrophic repercussions.

The amount of **** you up we'd send at Russia if they nuked one of our cities would be mind boggling. And I'm not talking about nukes. Their military would cease to exist.

If you're going to nuke the US go ahead and nuke it all because one city is just going to piss us off.


No. We'd have a somewhat measured response. We won't launch an all out strike and invite a complete nuclear war.

Alternatively, Russia would likely be cutoff from world markets completely. That kind of attack against a country you're not directly at war with has to have grave consequences, and every other country in the world has a stake in avoiding nuclear exchange. China, Iran, India, et al would likely go from neutral or quietly supportive to real sanctions pretty damn fast. No one wants to see that box opened, and I think those countries know they'd be having to choose between us and Russia when it came to brass tacks. Failure to condemn and follow through would be tacit approval and taken as an insult requiring a response beyond mere words.

If it turns into the world against Russia, I think you'll see Russian regime change, with extreme prejudice. Even Putin's closest allies and advisors have to know they can't survive as a global pariah.

I agree with your statement if Russia nukes something near Ukraine.

If they nuke a US city we're not just going to shake our finger and say no more good for you.


We certainly wouldn't just shake our finger. Options would range from obliterating Kaliningrad and removing Russia's presence from the Baltic Sea, theater wide airstrikes that eliminated the Russian presence in and around Ukraine, declaring outright war against Russia, a nuclear response, or anything in between.

I think the outcome would be more political though. It's likely we launch massive air and missile strikes in and around Ukraine, essentially destroying all C2 and logistics capabilities and putting the Russians there at the mercy of the Ukrainians, then start massing forces in Europe while discussing a declaration of war. Russian state media will likely push a larger conflict, but I think a lot of Russian generals would see the writing the wall and stage a coup before that happened. Hell, some of the state pundits are already questioning the fighting in Ukraine, and I think they would be absolutely ****ting themselves if they suddenly faced all of NATO. If they can't take Ukraine with NATO's donation box, open war with NATO is a hopeless endeavor sans nukes. They know it will either end in a NATO invasion of Russia, which would invite a nuclear exchange, or a nuclear exchange outright. They're rich and corrupt ***holes, so it's most likely they'd sell out Putin and kill him to save their own skin. If they successfully overthrow him, look for negotiations to end hostilities with extreme concessions from Russia.



TLDR Using single nukes against the US inevitably puts Russia into an even tighter strategic and political corner and almost ensures infighting for individual survival. I really don't think it happens.
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sclaff
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In reply to FriscoKid • 12:07p, 10/4/22
AG
FriscoKid said:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1577324136220839937.html

Discussion on how the Russians are trapped with few good options.

Quote:
Retreating to the Inhulets would be what a complete moron does... so the russians will do it.
excellent find !
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SwigAg11
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In reply to FriscoKid • 12:08p, 10/4/22
AG
FriscoKid said:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1577324136220839937.html

Discussion on how the Russians are trapped with few good options.

Quote:
Retreating to the Inhulets would be what a complete moron does... so the russians will do it.


That was a hilarious read, but also depressing for the Russians who are going to be left to die there because of Putin's hubris.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to FriscoKid • 12:10p, 10/4/22
AG
FriscoKid said:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1577324136220839937.html

Discussion on how the Russians are trapped with few good options.

Quote:
Retreating to the Inhulets would be what a complete moron does... so the russians will do it.


Here you go and this post says 6 hours old. This is going to allow UKE Indirect fire to attack both side of the Dnipro to a certain extent.

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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FriscoKid
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 12:14p, 10/4/22
AG
They are not in trouble. They are advancing backwards (and fast)
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Ulysses90
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In reply to sclaff • 12:18p, 10/4/22
AG
sclaff said:
IIRC Kherson is where that viral video was taken back in March of the Ukrainian woman telling the Russian invaders to put sunflower seeds in their pockets so they will be fertilizer for the sunflowers growing out of their corpses next spring. Her words have proved prophetic.
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B-1 83
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In reply to FriscoKid • 12:20p, 10/4/22
AG
FriscoKid said:
They are not in trouble. They are advancing backwards (and fast)
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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Ulysses90
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In reply to one MEEN Ag • 12:51p, 10/4/22
AG
one MEEN Ag said:
Now if Russia decided it was going to launch their whole salvo to end the world, yeah I would estimate there would be a small percentage of missiles that fail to launch, blow up upon exit, fail guidance to target, or fail to arm the warhead. But enough would work that it wouldn't make a difference.

I believe that the actual case would be the opposite. Only a small percentage of the strategic nuke's would actually launch. They have been neglected entirely since the fall of the Soviet Union. They were the weapons that the post-USSR thought they would never use. The decade of the 1990s was complete chaos and nothing was modernized during Yeltsin's time and Putin spent years trying to consolidate his power and put down the Chechens and Dagestani rebellions. If a Russian ICBM program director called the Kremlin to get funding for maintaining, testing, let alone upgrading the ICBM warheads Putin and the predecessors of Gerasimov and Shoigu would have had no idea who was calling. Strategic weapons have been treated as an always available sunk-cost threat because they were only ever intended to be a threat.

The shelf life of a non-corrosive primed rifle cartridge could be 100 years, artillery projectiles about 70 years, artillery propellants and point-detonating fuzes stored in a cool dry bunker for 40 years, time fuzes about 20 years, and precision guided rockets and warheads are probably about 10 years.

PGMs may last a lot longer but can ONLY be counted on if there is random testing by lot number. The Russians haven't been doing that. That's why their Gen 4 Su-34s were getting shot down while in a low-altitude glide slop dropping dumb bombs because the standoff weapons they were designed to carry didn't work because they were not maintained and regularly tested. The Pentagon estimates that only about 40% of the Kalibr and Iskander missiles are coming close to their targets and a lot of them aren't even getting far from the launcher.

Nuclear warheads (fuzes and the trigger charges) and missiles require far more maintenance and testing than conventional PGMs. There is no evidence that the Russians have been doing this.

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Ulysses90
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In reply to LMCane • 12:51p, 10/4/22
AG
LMCane said:
one MEEN Ag said:
Honestly, I would put it at a slim chance that it blows up accidentally on launch. If Russia is going to use one nuke, they'll pick from their most modern stock.

Now if Russia decided it was going to launch their whole salvo to end the world, yeah I would estimate there would be a small percentage of missiles that fail to launch, blow up upon exit, fail guidance to target, or fail to arm the warhead. But enough would work that it wouldn't make a difference.

Also, getting a tactical nuke launched into a neighbor state is less stress on the missile than an ICBM thats gotta go to outer space. So if you're pulling old parts and relying on overcoming corrosion, erosion, and negligence I would assume the shorter range stuff is better suited for launch.

America has been relying on supercomputer simulations and continued validation testing of subassemblies to ensure that its stockpile is ready to go. Slowly updating parts as technology improves. Getting rid of things like tape decks and upgrading guidance systems. I would expect Russia is doing the same.
Russia has the capability to fire low yield nuclear weapons without having to use missiles.

the 'Malka" self-propelled artillery piece can fire a nuclear device

So could the M198 or M109A6 but they never did, ever. Like the Malka, the US never tested their cannon launched tactical nuclear warheads for fielded guns. The only US cannon launched tactical nuke ever tested was fired from a on-off cannon named Atomic Annie that is on display at Ft. Sill Cannon walk.



The procedures for firing the tactical nuke from an M198 called for using a 100' long lanyard because the propellant charge used was so strong that it would effectively destroy the cannon tube even if it functioned as designed. It was always a bit ironic to inventory the 100' lanyard in the SL/3 ancillary equipment for the howitzer because the concussion from the firing of the nuke projectile kind of paled in comparison to the problems that would begin when the projectile detonated just 18km away from the gun position.
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GAC06
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In reply to Ulysses90 • 1:11p, 10/4/22
AG
I'm not sure the lack of PGM's is due to lack of maintenance/age. I think they were just never a significant portion of their arsenal. Even if we completely ran out of PGM's we'd still be using our advanced targeting pods to drop unguided ordnance. Every Russian aircraft I see is slick, some with off the shelf gps strapped to the glare shield. Presumably they're at least using radar to get height above target, but still.


Also it's not like they haven't put any effort into ICBM's

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-28_Sarmat
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Rossticus
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1:17p, 10/4/22
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Rossticus
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1:20p, 10/4/22
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Ulysses90
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In reply to GAC06 • 1:32p, 10/4/22
AG
GAC06 said:
I'm not sure the lack of PGM's is due to lack of maintenance/age. I think they were just never a significant portion of their arsenal. Even if we completely ran out of PGM's we'd still be using our advanced targeting pods to drop unguided ordnance. Every Russian aircraft I see is slick, some with off the shelf gps strapped to the glare shield. Presumably they're at least using radar to get height above target, but still.


Also it's not like they haven't put any effort into ICBM's

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-28_Sarmat

That's an interesting example. The Avangarde hypersonic glide vehicle is the new technology but it is mounted on the PDU-99 liquid fueled launch vehicle which is an updated version of the RD-274 booster that was produced from 1982-88. The Russians are putting an HGV on an rocket that is a 40 year old design.

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Rossticus
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1:37p, 10/4/22
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AgLA06
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In reply to Ulysses90 • 1:38p, 10/4/22
AG
I feel like you stopped speaking english at some point during these posts.
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Rossticus
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1:38p, 10/4/22
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Ulysses90
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In reply to AgLA06 • 1:43p, 10/4/22
AG
Perhaps so. To simplify, the Russian's new weapons such as the SS-28 Sarmat hypersonic nuclear missile are based on a "Lego block" approach of cobbling together pieces of old obsolete weapons.
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GAC06
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In reply to Ulysses90 • 1:47p, 10/4/22
AG
Derivative of older designs or not, they are building, testing, and procuring new ICBM's
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Rossticus
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1:58p, 10/4/22
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:00p, 10/4/22
https://www.instagram.com/p/CjTIDegLVTQ/?igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY=
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:01p, 10/4/22
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CjS97ipANQK/?igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY=
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Rossticus
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2:01p, 10/4/22
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Smeghead4761
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In reply to sclaff • 2:03p, 10/4/22
sclaff said:
FriscoKid said:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1577324136220839937.html

Discussion on how the Russians are trapped with few good options.

Quote:
Retreating to the Inhulets would be what a complete moron does... so the russians will do it.
excellent find !
If the post above is accurate, it looks like they're being herded in that direction, because the Ukrainians are cutting them off from the Dnipro River crossings, or at least the northern one.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Smeghead4761 • 2:06p, 10/4/22
AG
And there are other reports showing that this is happening. The Ukes logistic is on point if they are able to keep this pace for another couple weeks.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Smeghead4761 • 2:08p, 10/4/22
AG
It definitely looks like the Ukes are trying to force the Russians to the Inhulets river. At that point, I think the Russians would be completely within Uke fire control on three separate sides. With Putin telling them they cannot retreat from Kherson, that leaves either surrender or 1000s of inevitable Russian casualties.
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Rossticus
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2:10p, 10/4/22
Little doggy has no bite but still loves to bark.

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aggiehawg
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 2:10p, 10/4/22
AG
P.U.T.U said:
And there are other reports showing that this is happening. The Ukes logistic is on point if they are able to keep this pace for another couple weeks.
The number of posts showing Uke soldiers being reunited with family, friends and even their dogs indicate to me they are rotating out their forces and thus keeping the front line forces fresher.
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Rossticus
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2:12p, 10/4/22
Aaaaaand… booby trapping Nuclear Plants. For anyone who hasn't already marked that off their BINGO cards…

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SwigAg11
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:15p, 10/4/22
AG
I honestly didn't think anyone would be that stupid, but here we are.
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The Fife
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In reply to AgLA06 • 2:16p, 10/4/22
AgLA06 said:
I feel like you stopped speaking english at some point during these posts.
Related, over the course of the mess going on I've gotten pretty good at sounding things written in the Cyrillic alphabet pretty well. I can't be the only one here who's picked it up?
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sclaff
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:24p, 10/4/22
AG
Rossticus said:
It's the Bifrost. The Asgardians have had enough of this crap
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:25p, 10/4/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Little doggy has no bite but still loves to bark.



"Foreign Ministry of Mordor"

I need laugh cry for this
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