I have no idea how this Kherson offensive is going to end. Aren't there around 20,000 Russian troops on the west-side of the Dnipro river that Putin has stated are not allowed to retreat? That just seems like a terrible meat grinder for both sides.

Maybe the Ukes take Nova Kahkova and press straight south, forcing the Russians to hot step it out of Kherson, moving the battle space too a foot race with artillery and highly mobile platoons racing around. Whatever elements make it out of Kherson would be blocked in Crimea except for the E105 highway which should then be within range of any artillery.

SwigAg11 said:

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I have no idea how this Kherson offensive is going to end. Aren't there around 20,000 Russian troops on the west-side of the Dnipro river that Putin has stated are not allowed to retreat? That just seems like a terrible meat grinder for both sides.

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One side has plenty equipment and ammo. The other side does not. It's not a fair fight.

SwigAg11 said:

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I have no idea how this Kherson offensive is going to end. Aren't there around 20,000 Russian troops on the west-side of the Dnipro river that Putin has stated are not allowed to retreat? That just seems like a terrible meat grinder for both sides.

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Unless the Russians surrender.

GarryowenAg said:

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LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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NEW: Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around #Lyman and in northern #Kherson Oblast over the last 24 hours. The Russian units defeated on these fronts were previously considered to be among #Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.https://t.co/qCfwrJolCF pic.twitter.com/GwXQBzxI0S

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 4, 2022

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so let's talk strategy and Corps level staff planning:

in Kherson Oblast, you have the Dnipro river as the southern boundary cutting off the Rus forces.

1. do you continue to move west/south west along the north bank of the Dnipro now that the Ukes have pushed through the initial defense line?

2. or do you send your forces to the west/north west linking up with other Uke forces penetrating south/south east and create a small cauldron of surrounded Russian forces in the eastern part of the occupied zone? that would cleave about 35% of the Russians into a complete encirclement

on the other hand, that would then give the other 65% a chance to create new defense lines (although still encircled around Kherson city)

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I would continue to fix orc positions on the far western line and continue to push south/west along the Dnipro as they've been doing. A penetration through the middle requires double the troops to provide rear security and the Ukes would basically be opening a third front line for them to defend.

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At least until Mylove. At that point you could head west and cut off some of the supply routes north to the pocket and bring their evac channels under pressure. Kinda hard to tell where the front is and it seems like the Russians are retreating to avoid encirclement according to liveuamap. I'd have to dig deep into Telegram to get a clearer picture and don't have time today.

LMCane said:

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fullback44 said:

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Private PoopyPants said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Private PoopyPants said:

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The sub carries this supposed cobalt nuclear torpedo which is designed to detonate offshore. The shaped blast would theoretically cause a massive tsunami of radioactive water to engulf a coastal city. Fun times.

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Theoretically, how massive of a tsunami? 20 feet? 30 feet? 100 feet? What is the yield on that. if you know.

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Theoretically, the tsunami could be over a kilometer high depending on yield and other factors like seafloor geography and distance from the detonation. That being said, the yield is likely far, far lower. The danger in these things is they travel very slowly and don't make much noise so they are difficult to track until they are close to the target and begin their final acceleration pattern before detonation. The cobalt causes increased radioactive fallout in the water. While an underwater detonation largely protects the surface and atmosphere from radiation, the seabed would be contaminated for decades and the radioactive salts would filter through along the coastline along an extended range.

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Are the Russians really stupid enough to basically poison the entire Black Sea or the Sea of Azov? They would piss off a lot more people than just the Ukraine, starting with Turkey, Turkey may cut them off completely from using the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits …. It would be load gun, ready, aim, SHOOT… foot falls off

Not to also mention if this tsunami did work and went the wrong direction towards all of Turkeys shorelines… Ruskies would essentially screw themselves

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what makes you think they would use the Belgorod against Odessa?

could be they use it against New York City or Miami, or Jacksonville, or Charleston.

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Or Houston or New Orleans.

New Orleans, LA or Charleston are probably the best targets due to them being on the water, with now barrier islands.

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Just a quick glance at the map, that only seems to be about 15 miles to Mylove? Russia keeps backing up and there is no way there is time to dig in for a good defense. It seems unlikely they already had anything established in this new defense area so I guess this is why the Uke army is attacking, running out of ammo, going back to resupply and then attacking again? Also would make some sense for whatever command is still left in the russian army to say fall back to XXX and defend and these guys know nothing other than to do it no matter what a death trap it is going to be.

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Mylove is is shaping up to be next. It's 10 miles SW downriver from Dudchany and about 15 miles east of the Davydid Brid 'pincer.' Things get real interesting after Mylove ... Berislav and Nova Kakhova (15-20 miles downriver from Mylove) are very heavily defended and the Orks are dug in. Their Alamo and they won't give it up easily.

AgLA06 said:

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I keep looking across the river and wondering what, if anything Russia has over there.

If they could use the German bridging equipment at night to get a mechanized battalion across and then head south along the river it would cause immediate chaos and panic. The Russians on the western bank still hold out hope they'll be able to withdraw across the river if necessary. If there was suddenly Uke forces across the river flanking them, Kherson folds almost immediately.

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How quickly does the bridging equipment operate? It seems like Russia would notice quickly because it might be slow and loud, but at the same time they always seem to be caught off guard. Their intelligence and people on orders to be on watch must be absolutely terrible.

Defended with what? And I think we've seen the Russians are more than willing to give up easily.

Precisely my thoughts as well. Doing so would cut the link from Kherson to Crimea and would intensify pressure on the primary rail link to Melitipol. Where the partisans are highly active.
Why fight the Russians in Kherson if you can force them to fight on foot in the countryside.

Charleston does have barrier islands, they're all over the place excluding Charleston Harbor which isn't exactly huge. Nothing could get in there undetected. The targets in the area with military value are all inland, specifically Charelston AFB which would be a strategically important one. Doing any sort of attack on downtown Charleston would realistically only affect the tourism industry and commercial shipping out of one of the three area ports.

LMCane said:

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so let's talk strategy and Corps level staff planning:

in Kherson Oblast, you have the Dnipro river as the southern boundary cutting off the Rus forces.

1. do you continue to move west/south west along the north bank of the Dnipro now that the Ukes have pushed through the initial defense line?

2. or do you send your forces to the west/north west linking up with other Uke forces penetrating south/south east and create a small cauldron of surrounded Russian forces in the eastern part of the occupied zone? that would cleave about 35% of the Russians into a complete encirclement

on the other hand, that would then give the other 65% a chance to create new defense lines (although still encircled around Kherson city)

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Keep pushing along the Dnipro River. You are eating territory while probably not inflicting that many casualties due to the Russians retreating so fast and far. Ukes are probably fighting units that are "holding" so others can scoot out the back.

The issue is that the geography of the area is funneling the Russians into a tighter space ensuring said space is saturated with juicy targets. The artillery and long range missiles lobbed into this confined area will be catostrophic to any poor Russian on the receiving side.

Does this end in a stalemate with Ukraine kicking the Russians ass all the way back to Crimea and Russia digging in and fortifying?

I don't see how the Ukes could launch a large invasion of Crimea unless they have some incredible amphibious capability we haven't seen yet.

Neither side is going to be willing to give up Crimea. The land is too valuable and Russia would have to remove its fleet from Sevastopol as that shared arrangement is untenable now.

Nagler said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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LMCane said:

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fullback44 said:

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Private PoopyPants said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Private PoopyPants said:

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The sub carries this supposed cobalt nuclear torpedo which is designed to detonate offshore. The shaped blast would theoretically cause a massive tsunami of radioactive water to engulf a coastal city. Fun times.

---

Theoretically, how massive of a tsunami? 20 feet? 30 feet? 100 feet? What is the yield on that. if you know.

---

Theoretically, the tsunami could be over a kilometer high depending on yield and other factors like seafloor geography and distance from the detonation. That being said, the yield is likely far, far lower. The danger in these things is they travel very slowly and don't make much noise so they are difficult to track until they are close to the target and begin their final acceleration pattern before detonation. The cobalt causes increased radioactive fallout in the water. While an underwater detonation largely protects the surface and atmosphere from radiation, the seabed would be contaminated for decades and the radioactive salts would filter through along the coastline along an extended range.

---

Are the Russians really stupid enough to basically poison the entire Black Sea or the Sea of Azov? They would piss off a lot more people than just the Ukraine, starting with Turkey, Turkey may cut them off completely from using the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits …. It would be load gun, ready, aim, SHOOT… foot falls off

Not to also mention if this tsunami did work and went the wrong direction towards all of Turkeys shorelines… Ruskies would essentially screw themselves

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what makes you think they would use the Belgorod against Odessa?

could be they use it against New York City or Miami, or Jacksonville, or Charleston.

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Because we would retaliate. It would either be an ultimatum to arrest Putin and all of his advisors and give them over to US custody or face a nuclear attack, we take Kaliningrad and send forces into Ukraine/Russia, or a straight nuclear response against a Russian city. There would be catastrophic repercussions.

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The amount of **** you up we'd send at Russia if they nuked one of our cities would be mind boggling. And I'm not talking about nukes. Their military would cease to exist.

If you're going to nuke the US go ahead and nuke it all because one city is just going to piss us off.

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No. We'd have a somewhat measured response. We won't launch an all out strike and invite a complete nuclear war.

Alternatively, Russia would likely be cutoff from world markets completely. That kind of attack against a country you're not directly at war with has to have grave consequences, and every other country in the world has a stake in avoiding nuclear exchange. China, Iran, India, et al would likely go from neutral or quietly supportive to real sanctions pretty damn fast. No one wants to see that box opened, and I think those countries know they'd be having to choose between us and Russia when it came to brass tacks. Failure to condemn and follow through would be tacit approval and taken as an insult requiring a response beyond mere words.

If it turns into the world against Russia, I think you'll see Russian regime change, with extreme prejudice. Even Putin's closest allies and advisors have to know they can't survive as a global pariah.

bonfarr said:

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Does this end in a stalemate with Ukraine kicking the Russians ass all the way back to Crimea and Russia digging in and fortifying?

I don't see how the Ukes could launch a large invasion of Crimea unless they have some incredible amphibious capability we haven't seen yet.

Neither side is going to be willing to give up Crimea. The land is too valuable and Russia would have to remove its fleet from Sevastopol as that shared arrangement is untenable now.

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Already more or less done. They moved it East to Novorossiysk a while ago when Ukraine started making it clear that Crimea is not safe for it.

Russia's had degradation in use of Crimea for air and sea power since the Ukrainian attacks there. I believe this was back in July.

As for a Ukrainian attack on Crimea, I'm sure we'll see the Kerch Bridge targeted when the Ukrainians are ready to kick that off.

Russian media Rybar's latest map shows how dire the situation is in northern Kherson for Russia. These maps are 4 hours apart. pic.twitter.com/d8ZrxOdLZS

— Kyle Glen (@KyleJGlen) October 4, 2022

4 hours?

North and south of the city. Nothing between the port (old town) and the Atlantic.

GarryowenAg said:

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LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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NEW: Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around #Lyman and in northern #Kherson Oblast over the last 24 hours. The Russian units defeated on these fronts were previously considered to be among #Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.https://t.co/qCfwrJolCF pic.twitter.com/GwXQBzxI0S

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 4, 2022

---

so let's talk strategy and Corps level staff planning:

in Kherson Oblast, you have the Dnipro river as the southern boundary cutting off the Rus forces.

1. do you continue to move west/south west along the north bank of the Dnipro now that the Ukes have pushed through the initial defense line?

2. or do you send your forces to the west/north west linking up with other Uke forces penetrating south/south east and create a small cauldron of surrounded Russian forces in the eastern part of the occupied zone? that would cleave about 35% of the Russians into a complete encirclement

on the other hand, that would then give the other 65% a chance to create new defense lines (although still encircled around Kherson city)

---

I would continue to fix orc positions on the far western line and continue to push south/west along the Dnipro as they've been doing. A penetration through the middle requires double the troops to provide rear security and the Ukes would basically be opening a third front line for them to defend.

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The Ukrainians pushing south from Mikolaiv may plan to drive to the Inhulets River and then set a defensive line all along the river down to Kherson. The Ukrainians pushing from the east would then pin the retreating Russians inside the area defined by the junction of the Inhulets and the Dnieper with no way to resupply or escape across either river.

KHERSON/ FLASH TRAFFIC/1030 UTC 4 OCT/ At 1000 UTC, developing reports indicate that RU forces have fallen back to shorten their lines S of Novohrednjeve. Partisan reports indicate that RU units are establishing a new defensive line in the vicinity of Mylove. pic.twitter.com/tG4K3tgw6F

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 4, 2022

The Fife said:

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AgLA06 said:

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I keep looking across the river and wondering what, if anything Russia has over there.

If they could use the German bridging equipment at night to get a mechanized battalion across and then head south along the river it would cause immediate chaos and panic. The Russians on the western bank still hold out hope they'll be able to withdraw across the river if necessary. If there was suddenly Uke forces across the river flanking them, Kherson folds almost immediately.

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How quickly does the bridging equipment operate? It seems like Russia would notice quickly because it might be slow and loud, but at the same time they always seem to be caught off guard. Their intelligence and people on orders to be on watch must be absolutely terrible.

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Modern Bridging equipment in ideal conditions with well trained personnel can span a 100m river in about a half hour.

Real world? At least double I'd imagine. If under fire indirect fire though, almost impossible I'd say. Bridging in close war zones is such a toss of the dice. Look at Russia's several attempts in the past where they attempted it against the Ukes and got butchered.

Doesn't mean Ukes took that territory in 4 hours. Just means he updated the maps 4 hours apart. I imagine based on recent history, Russia's crappy communication makes it difficult to know.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Nagler said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

LMCane said:

---

fullback44 said:

---

Private PoopyPants said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Private PoopyPants said:

---

The sub carries this supposed cobalt nuclear torpedo which is designed to detonate offshore. The shaped blast would theoretically cause a massive tsunami of radioactive water to engulf a coastal city. Fun times.

---

Theoretically, how massive of a tsunami? 20 feet? 30 feet? 100 feet? What is the yield on that. if you know.

---

Theoretically, the tsunami could be over a kilometer high depending on yield and other factors like seafloor geography and distance from the detonation. That being said, the yield is likely far, far lower. The danger in these things is they travel very slowly and don't make much noise so they are difficult to track until they are close to the target and begin their final acceleration pattern before detonation. The cobalt causes increased radioactive fallout in the water. While an underwater detonation largely protects the surface and atmosphere from radiation, the seabed would be contaminated for decades and the radioactive salts would filter through along the coastline along an extended range.

---

Are the Russians really stupid enough to basically poison the entire Black Sea or the Sea of Azov? They would piss off a lot more people than just the Ukraine, starting with Turkey, Turkey may cut them off completely from using the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits …. It would be load gun, ready, aim, SHOOT… foot falls off

Not to also mention if this tsunami did work and went the wrong direction towards all of Turkeys shorelines… Ruskies would essentially screw themselves

---

what makes you think they would use the Belgorod against Odessa?

could be they use it against New York City or Miami, or Jacksonville, or Charleston.

---

Because we would retaliate. It would either be an ultimatum to arrest Putin and all of his advisors and give them over to US custody or face a nuclear attack, we take Kaliningrad and send forces into Ukraine/Russia, or a straight nuclear response against a Russian city. There would be catastrophic repercussions.

---

The amount of **** you up we'd send at Russia if they nuked one of our cities would be mind boggling. And I'm not talking about nukes. Their military would cease to exist.

If you're going to nuke the US go ahead and nuke it all because one city is just going to piss us off.

---

No. We'd have a somewhat measured response. We won't launch an all out strike and invite a complete nuclear war.

Alternatively, Russia would likely be cutoff from world markets completely. That kind of attack against a country you're not directly at war with has to have grave consequences, and every other country in the world has a stake in avoiding nuclear exchange. China, Iran, India, et al would likely go from neutral or quietly supportive to real sanctions pretty damn fast. No one wants to see that box opened, and I think those countries know they'd be having to choose between us and Russia when it came to brass tacks. Failure to condemn and follow through would be tacit approval and taken as an insult requiring a response beyond mere words.

If it turns into the world against Russia, I think you'll see Russian regime change, with extreme prejudice. Even Putin's closest allies and advisors have to know they can't survive as a global pariah.

---

I agree with your statement if Russia nukes something near Ukraine.

If they nuke a US city we're not just going to shake our finger and say no more good for you.

Agree. It would be a risk. But the reward to truly isolate that 20k troops on the west bank to either be destroyed or captured would be huge.

Seems the Ukes could bring up some air defense systems to ensure drones can't spot the bridging at night and have troops across before Russia knows what's going on. The german air defense systems were made for this. I don't think it's an accident they sent those and the bridging systems.

Today's SITREP.

More on that Russian nuclear train.

My takeaway - seems like the Wagner group is at their end in trying to take Bakhmut.

8/ #Ukrainian forces resumed counteroffensives in northern #Kherson Oblast and have secured positions in Zolota Balka and Khreshchenivka.https://t.co/bediT0xICa pic.twitter.com/PjnKCpD1jL

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 3, 2022

Russian brigades have no rotations across Kherson region.

Their troops have been fighting for 7 months.

Morale is 0

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) October 4, 2022

AgLA06 said:

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Agree. It would be a risk. But the reward to truly isolate that 20k troops on the west bank to either be destroyed or captured would be huge.

Seems the Ukes could bring up some air defense systems to ensure drones can't spot the bridging at night and have troops across before Russia knows what's going on. The german air defense systems were made for this. I don't think it's an accident they sent those and the bridging systems.

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Yep I like the way you think. Go bold go deep for maximum chaos with extreme Violence of Action.

20K pushed tighter and tighter wont be enough room to hide from 182,000 tungsten balls raining down on you after a few 200LBs HE disburses those enjoying a false sense of security inside armor vehicles.

Might even get to see some UKE CAS soon.

Talking about blowing up the city I live in, but strategically the best place they could do it would be the airport. Charleston AFB is right there and they probably wouldn't need multiple warheads to take out the Naval Weapons Station along with. It would also take out two of the three port facilities, possibly not the third one downtown but access to it would no longer exist. Extra area covered by going to the NE / SW (coastline runs in this direction) would do nothing but affect sparsely populated forest. That's with a single warhead, of course they would most likely use multiple and just hit everything anyway.