China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission

3,279,281 Views | 21764 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
YouBet
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eric76 said:

YouBet said:

Got behind on this thread. Two things that no one will care about:

1. Most conferences in my business have been cancelled.

2. My #1 pet peeve of bathroom doors that open inward instead of outward has hit another level with this. Should be outlawed. I should never have to touch a door handle to get out of a bathroom. All you Aggie builders that have done this are dead to me.
If we could open the bathroom door and then wash our hands, that would be an improvement.

I generally like to leave bathroom doors open, anyway. You just need to make sure you don't have a dog that likes to drink out of the crapper.


I was talking about the main door into a public bathroom.
Cy_Tolliver
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KorbinDallas said:

claym711 said:

One thing is certain. If the outbreak is not controlled, a 1-2% death rate would be devastating. It's odd tha mostt ppl don't seem to grasp the potential for a disaster No one wants.
.

And what will raise that 1-2% to 3-4%(or higher) is if the cases come in faster than the healthcare system can deal with them. Commercial hospitals don't keep large numbers of empty beds, especially the ones needed for ICU and other serious patients. So if hospital trips increase by a large percentage it can cause major issues. Not to mention if Dr.s and nurses, first responders and other staff get quarantined Or sick themselves.
. Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
eric76
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YouBet said:

Cruise ships are f'ing stupid. I've never been on one and never will. I have employees currently complaining there's was cancelled while simultaneously other employees are booking them feverishly because they are cheap.
The closest thing to a cruise ship that I've been on was the ferry between Seattle, Washington, and Haines, Alaska.
Tx-Ag2010
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I'm really hoping this gets under control. I have a coworker (mid 50's) that just got admitted to the ICU for the plain ole flu.
eric76
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Rapier108 said:

bmks270 said:

CDC screener at LAX tests positive. This guy could have potentially spread it to people he was screening.

https://archive.is/xtetr
He last worked on 2-21 at LAX and did not have any symptoms until 2-29.
The main concern is how long is it between the time they become infective and when they start to display symptoms.

I don't think that the incubation period itself is the issue. For example, there was one rabies case in Australia where the incubation period was apparently something like six years. Also, there was one in Texas where the exposure was about a year before the victim showed symptoms of the disease.

So if his exposure was on February 16 and he began to show symptoms on February 29, that's much less or a problem if he became infective on February 28, than if he became infective on February 17.
eric76
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Rapier108 said:

Nuclear Scramjet said:

Rapier108 said:

Another freaking cruse ship.

Why in the hell would anyone think it is a good idea to take a cruise right?


Those things are bad enough for disease as it is. Add something with an r0 as high as this? Yeah everyone is getting sick.
I'd bet that something with a normally low R0 value is magnified when it decides to take a ride on a cruise ship.
I bet you are sure right about that. Also in close quarters in a home or office.
Rossticus
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Not sure if it's been posted yet but this is a fascinating site for "real-time tracking of pathogenic evolution".

https://nextstrain.org/

Description: " Nextstrain is an open-source project to harness the scientific and public health potential of pathogen genome data. We provide a continually-updated view of publicly available data alongside powerful analytic and visualization tools for use by the community. Our goal is to aid epidemiological understanding and improve outbreak response."
Cancelled
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This doesn't seem like a country that has everything shiut down

Rossticus
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Source: https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-03-04?n=1

Using 161 publicly shared COVID-19 genomes, we examined genetic diversity to characterize the spread of COVID-19 in different areas and infer the date of their common ancestor.

We find:

COVID-19 was introduced into Italy at least twice with subsequent community spread.

This includes a cluster of sequences from 6 different countries where cases appear to have been exported from Italy.

Genetic sequence data supports the hypothesis of undetected, sustained spread of COVID-19 in the greater Seattle area since mid-January.

All the sequenced cases included in this analysis likely share a common ancestor sometime between mid-November and mid-December 2019.
DX2011
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Ol_Ag_02 said:

Bruce Almighty said:

That's surprising, because when I was in Europe, there were so many more Chinese in Italy than in France. Venice was insane. There were more Asians that white people. Even the smaller places like Cinque Terre were full of them.


You shut your mouth. Cinque Terra is on my list of places I want to see before I die. Now you're telling me the Chinese ****ed that up too? What's next, Chinese people in New Zealand?


It was 2016 but I'd say I couldn't have had a much less different tan on Cinque Terre. We went in May and it was a blend of tourist, mostly Europeans, and never crowded. The more mountainous trails (not the last one right on the coast) were very sparse and we'd go 20-30 minutes without seeing anyone with some of the most incredible views. Definitely would suggest taking multiple days and exploring some of the other routes between towns!

Now back to doom and gloom!
VaultingChemist
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Quote:

Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
Are the number of cases increasing or decreasing?
At what rate?
What are your chances of being hospitalized with pneumonia if you are infected?
What are your chances of dying from pneumonia?

FTR, I have never complained to staff about any poster.
bmks270
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The exponential rise in cases will taper off. China still below 100,000 infected of 1+ Billion. That is less than 1% infected. The virus and economic impacts are manageable. It will continue to spread but once people realize it's manageable life will continue as normal, everyone will resume their normal activities, but with a paranoia and heightened attention to hygiene and isolation for a few months.
rab79
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Rossticus said:

Source: https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-03-04?n=1

Using 161 publicly shared COVID-19 genomes, we examined genetic diversity to characterize the spread of COVID-19 in different areas and infer the date of their common ancestor.

We find:

COVID-19 was introduced into Italy at least twice with subsequent community spread.

This includes a cluster of sequences from 6 different countries where cases appear to have been exported from Italy.

Genetic sequence data supports the hypothesis of undetected, sustained spread of COVID-19 in the greater Seattle area since mid-January.

All the sequenced cases included in this analysis likely share a common ancestor sometime between mid-November and mid-December 2019.
Ouch!
eric76
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Tabasco said:

eric76 said:

When the likelihood of people in my area having coronavirus, I'll probably start using Hibiclens to wash my hands. Hibiclens (4% chlorhexidine gluconate) can continue to work to kill bacteria, viruses, and fungi for up to 24 hours after washing.

For best results, you wash with Hibiclens and then wait four minutes before rinsing off the hands. Of course, you don't use other soap after that.
Wanted to drop in an thank you for this. I did not know what this was, so I googled it, and bought a 32oz container from Amazon. Then, a few minutes after I submitted it, the news dropped that there is a probable case in Ft. Bend County. I am in Sugar Land. Bought a pump off ebay, since they are backordered on Amazon for 3 weeks. How many pumps? Would you do this once a day? Any other input/advice?
I use it three or four times a week when showering.

About five years ago, I started having some kind of rash of open sores developing on my stomach area. I was a little concerned that they might be MRSA so I asked a dermatologist, but she didn't really say anything about it. She did point to some patchy skin and say that was psoriasis.

I started using an antibacterial soap that that cut them back some, but didn't end them. I looked for Hibiclens in the local stores but couldn't find it. So I've been making do with the antibacterial soap.

Then last year while I was at a Walmart and I just happened to see it on a top shelf. I've been using it since then and it's been a while now since I had any new sores. Besides that, the scales from the psoriasis are way down and the psoriasis is much less noticeable.

The way I use it is to get a fresh wash rag wet and then I turn off the shower and step out. I apply a little of the Hibiclens to the wash rag and then use that to rub the Hibiclens into the skin area. After that, I wait about three to four minutes before stepping back in the shower to rinse off (no new soap). It's supposed to be good for 24 hours or so.

When I was at Walmart tonight, I bought another bottle to keep in the kitchen at the office. If there is any sign of the coronavirus reaching here, I'll start washing my hands and lower arms with it once or twice a day at the office -- mainly after washing dishes since the dish soap would likely wash off whatever was left of the Hibiclens.

You definitely don't want to get it in the mouth, eyes, ears, the genital region (some people do use it for jock itch and report good results), anus, or on open wounds. I assume that we shouldn't get it in the nose, either, but I haven't noticed any particular warning about that. They strongly advise against using it to wash your face unless directed by a doctor to prepare for a medical procedure. If you get it in the eyes, you apparently have to flush it out really good for a while with cold water.

They also, if I remember correctly, warn not to use it on kids younger than, I think, two years old.

There is a prescription oral cleanser that uses the same ingredient, but at a far lower dosage. Hibiclens is 4% and the oral cleaner is, if I remember correctly, 0.25%.
eric76
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Cy_Tolliver said:

KorbinDallas said:

claym711 said:

One thing is certain. If the outbreak is not controlled, a 1-2% death rate would be devastating. It's odd tha mostt ppl don't seem to grasp the potential for a disaster No one wants.
.

And what will raise that 1-2% to 3-4%(or higher) is if the cases come in faster than the healthcare system can deal with them. Commercial hospitals don't keep large numbers of empty beds, especially the ones needed for ICU and other serious patients. So if hospital trips increase by a large percentage it can cause major issues. Not to mention if Dr.s and nurses, first responders and other staff get quarantined Or sick themselves.
. Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
Something like 30 to 40 people die from lightning strikes in the US each year. The death toll in the US from coronavirus is already up to 11.
VaultingChemist
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Quote:

Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
Are you going to defend your statement? Still waiting......
Cy_Tolliver
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eric76 said:

Cy_Tolliver said:

KorbinDallas said:

claym711 said:

One thing is certain. If the outbreak is not controlled, a 1-2% death rate would be devastating. It's odd tha mostt ppl don't seem to grasp the potential for a disaster No one wants.
.

And what will raise that 1-2% to 3-4%(or higher) is if the cases come in faster than the healthcare system can deal with them. Commercial hospitals don't keep large numbers of empty beds, especially the ones needed for ICU and other serious patients. So if hospital trips increase by a large percentage it can cause major issues. Not to mention if Dr.s and nurses, first responders and other staff get quarantined Or sick themselves.
. Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
Something like 30 to 40 people die from lightning strikes in the US each year. The death toll in the US from coronavirus is already up to 11.
So roughly equal then? Not sure how that disputes my point. No one is hiding in their basement worried about dying from a lightning strike.
Cy_Tolliver
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VaultingChemist said:

Quote:

Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
Are you going to defend your statement? Still waiting......
Yes, I stand by it.
eric76
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Cy_Tolliver said:

eric76 said:

Cy_Tolliver said:

KorbinDallas said:

claym711 said:

One thing is certain. If the outbreak is not controlled, a 1-2% death rate would be devastating. It's odd tha mostt ppl don't seem to grasp the potential for a disaster No one wants.
.

And what will raise that 1-2% to 3-4%(or higher) is if the cases come in faster than the healthcare system can deal with them. Commercial hospitals don't keep large numbers of empty beds, especially the ones needed for ICU and other serious patients. So if hospital trips increase by a large percentage it can cause major issues. Not to mention if Dr.s and nurses, first responders and other staff get quarantined Or sick themselves.
. Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
Something like 30 to 40 people die from lightning strikes in the US each year. The death toll in the US from coronavirus is already up to 11.
So roughly equal then? Not sure how that disputes my point. No one is hiding in their basement worried about dying from a lightning strike.
When I was younger and driving a tractor, if the lightning got within a mile or two of me, it was time to get off the tractor, go to town, and play golf.
Cy_Tolliver
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VaultingChemist said:

Quote:

Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
Are the number of cases increasing or decreasing?
At what rate?
What are your chances of being hospitalized with pneumonia if you are infected?
What are your chances of dying from pneumonia?

FTR, I have never complained to staff about any poster.
I'm not sure what this post is about. Pneumonia is a serious disease with tens of thousands of deaths a year. My comparison was about coronavirus.
VaultingChemist
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Cy_Tolliver said:

VaultingChemist said:

Quote:

Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
Are you going to defend your statement? Still waiting......
Yes, I stand by it.
Then why won't you answer my simple questions?

Are the number of cases increasing or decreasing?
At what rate?
What are your chances of being hospitalized with pneumonia if you are infected?
What are your chances of dying from pneumonia?
VaultingChemist
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Cy_Tolliver said:

VaultingChemist said:

Quote:

Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
Are the number of cases increasing or decreasing?
At what rate?
What are your chances of being hospitalized with pneumonia if you are infected?
What are your chances of dying from pneumonia?

FTR, I have never complained to staff about any poster.
I'm not sure what this post is about. Pneumonia is a serious disease with tens of thousands of deaths a year. My comparison was about coronavirus.
The coronavirus causes a severe case of pneumonia in about 15% of those it infects. That is the main problem with contracting this virus. It will overwhelm the hospitals if it is not controlled.
Rossticus
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rab79 said:

Rossticus said:

Source: https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-03-04?n=1

Using 161 publicly shared COVID-19 genomes, we examined genetic diversity to characterize the spread of COVID-19 in different areas and infer the date of their common ancestor.

We find:

COVID-19 was introduced into Italy at least twice with subsequent community spread.

This includes a cluster of sequences from 6 different countries where cases appear to have been exported from Italy.

Genetic sequence data supports the hypothesis of undetected, sustained spread of COVID-19 in the greater Seattle area since mid-January.

All the sequenced cases included in this analysis likely share a common ancestor sometime between mid-November and mid-December 2019.
Ouch!


Yep. If you stop listening to government originated sources and look strictly at the data available, this thing has been floating around since before the Chinese tipped anyone else off. No telling which way this may swing. I'm not going to freak out but the real story absolutely is a little different than the official version.
Cy_Tolliver
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The USA has averaged 43 lightning dealths per year over the last 50 years, so that's a pretty solid number.

They say 11 coronavirus deaths - but much like pneumonia, the folks that die are usually already ill with other serious ailments so saying "pneomonia killed x" is a very misleading stat that is almost never quoted. Tell me the folks that weren't already ill that died of it and that's a good comparison number.

VaultingChemist
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Cy_Tolliver said:

The USA has averaged 43 lightning dealths per year over the last 50 years, so that's a pretty solid number.

They say 11 coronavirus deaths - but much like pneumonia, the folks that die are usually already ill with other serious ailments so saying "pneomonia killed x" is a very misleading stat that is almost never quoted. Tell me the folks that weren't already ill that died of it and that's a good comparison number.


I don't disagree with your number for lightning deaths per year.

The deaths from coronavirus will probably exceed 1000 sometime this year in the U.S., and the only way we can keep it that low is with a lot of quarantines and a lot of new drug treatments.

I know you don't believe that this will grow like that, but you only need to look at the growth rate in other countries besides China.
KidDoc
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I wish I didn't have decades of medical experience and education and could believe this was no more dangerous than lightning strikes like Cy_Tolliver.

This is gonna get a bit ugly buds. Not end of the world or anything to panic about but lots of hospital use, interruption of normal activity, lots of elderly deaths.

I would glad to be wrong and live in CY_Tolliver's world but years of medical education and decades of practice make me doubt that lightning strikes will outnumber Coronavirus deaths over the next 12 months.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Tabasco
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eric76 said:

Cy_Tolliver said:

KorbinDallas said:

claym711 said:

One thing is certain. If the outbreak is not controlled, a 1-2% death rate would be devastating. It's odd tha mostt ppl don't seem to grasp the potential for a disaster No one wants.
.

And what will raise that 1-2% to 3-4%(or higher) is if the cases come in faster than the healthcare system can deal with them. Commercial hospitals don't keep large numbers of empty beds, especially the ones needed for ICU and other serious patients. So if hospital trips increase by a large percentage it can cause major issues. Not to mention if Dr.s and nurses, first responders and other staff get quarantined Or sick themselves.
. Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
Something like 30 to 40 people die from lightning strikes in the US each year. The death toll in the US from coronavirus is already up to 11.
Totally unrelated to Corona Virus.

I am a Clinical Psychologist. I did a practicum at Warm Springs Rehabilitation Hospital in Warm Springs, GA (where FDR did his polio treatments). I had TWO separate patients within the year I was there that were both struck with lighting. Seriously... I met two people that were both struck by lighting and survived. Oddly, they both shared one similarity, an unquenchable thirst. They both independently said they were constantly thirsty.

That's all. Just always found that to be interesting.
rab79
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eric76 said:

Rapier108 said:

Athanasius said:

Morbid, irrational thoughts follow:

I wonder what life expectancy will look like in the US and world in a decade?
It is highly likely that over time the virus will mutate to a less dangerous strain. Viruses like corona/rhino/flu mutate often and the longer strains last, the less dangerous they become. This is what happened with the 1918 flu. Its descendants are still out there and still making people sick, but they are no longer lethal like they were 100+ years ago.
When a cell becomes infected with two strains of influenza virus, the strains can recombine to produce a brand new virus. That can happen on farms where pigs and chickens are kept in close proximity. If the chickens get one strain and the pigs another and then an animal gets the other strain, a new virus is very possible.

Of course, many of the recombined strains of influenza viruses don't do much, but occasionally we get one that does survive.

And sometimes, we get a new strain that is very deadly. If I remember correctly, it is thought that the 1918 flu was from a farm in Kansas or Missouri. It was a recombination of other strains.

That's why if a farm has chickens and pigs, they should be kept well apart from each other.
Or it too came from china spanish flu origion

Quote:

Historian Christopher Langford has shown that China suffered a lower mortality rate from the Spanish flu than other nations did, suggesting some immunity was at large in the population because of earlier exposure to the virus.

In the new report, Humphries finds archival evidence that a respiratory illness that struck northern China in November 1917 was identified a year later by Chinese health officials as identical to the Spanish flu.


Although this one has a disproportionate effect on the over 60 population the 1918 flu was particularly deadly on the 20-40 age group.
VaultingChemist
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Very consistent logarithmic slopes for all those European countries.....
Bobcat06
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Cy_Tolliver said:

KorbinDallas said:

claym711 said:

One thing is certain. If the outbreak is not controlled, a 1-2% death rate would be devastating. It's odd tha mostt ppl don't seem to grasp the potential for a disaster No one wants.
.

And what will raise that 1-2% to 3-4%(or higher) is if the cases come in faster than the healthcare system can deal with them. Commercial hospitals don't keep large numbers of empty beds, especially the ones needed for ICU and other serious patients. So if hospital trips increase by a large percentage it can cause major issues. Not to mention if Dr.s and nurses, first responders and other staff get quarantined Or sick themselves.
. Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t


"The number of cases in the USA is negligible"

2 questions:

How many people in the USA have been tested?

How many people in the USA have tried to get tested and been refused because they don't meet strict testing guidelines?

You can't have an epidemic if you don't test for the disease #Rollsafe
moses1084ever
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Quote:

"Prepare for significant increase in Covid-19 cases, and for it to stay long term"

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/prepare-for-significant-increase-in-covid-19-cases-and-for-it-to-stay-long-term-gan
AgFan2015
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When you say "things are trickling in" what do you mean? What type of products? Finished consumer goods, dog food, clothing, furniture, pharmaceuticals, components for machinery, etc????
AgFan2015
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Quote:

The Seattle U.S. Customs and Immigration Services (USCIS) Field Office is closed Tuesday, March 3, after a staff member is being tested for COVID-19, the coronavirus outbreak impacting King County.

U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Acting Deputy Secretary Ken Cuccinelli tweeted about the closure Tuesday. He states that late on Monday, March 2, he learned of an employee exhibiting flu-like symptoms four days after visiting Life Care Center in Kirkland. That center has more than 50 people ill with respiratory issues and several positive cases of the 2019 coronavirus.

The employee went to work after the visit to Kirkland on Feb. 22, before it was known residents there were contracting the virus, Cuccinelli stated. They continued to work until becoming ill on Feb. 26. Once feeling ill, the staff member stayed home. The Seattle Times reported that DHS will be closing the office for 14 days.



https://www.seattleweekly.com/news/local-immigration-office-closed-due-to-covid-19/

First of many. Won't take long for government office workers who hate their job to figure out they can get a two week paid vacation by claiming they've been exposed to CV.


#DisruptionsComingSoon to a town near you.


AgFan2015
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Quote:

TWO strains of the killer coronavirus are spreading around the world - and 70% of infected patients have caught the more aggressive and contagious type, study claims

Researchers say there are now two types of the same coronavirus infecting people and most people seem to have caught the most aggressive form of it.

The research was done by experts at Peking University in Beijing, Shanghai University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

In their study of genes in 103 samples of the coronavirus, which is named SARS-CoV-2 and causes a disease called COVID-19, they revealed they had discovered two distinct versions of it, which they named L and S.

They claimed that around 70 per cent of patients have caught the L strain, which is more aggressive and faster-spreading than S.

But L has become less common as the outbreak has gone on, with it apparently struggling to spread since early January, while S has become more common.

S is less aggressive but is thought to be the first strain of the virus which made the jump into humans and is continuing to infect new patients.
.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8073543/TWO-strains-killer-coronavirus-spreading-study-claims.html



And it appears it mutated.....
AgFan2015
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Cy_Tolliver said:

This whole thing is laughable. How many people died of common flu this year? I'll bet my house it's more than ever dies from coronavirus in the USA.

Oh and I'd ridicule the cdc that dropped off infected people at a mall but last time I said CDC was politicized trash I was called an antivaxxer and banned by staff for being "aggressive" even tho I insulted no one and another poster called me garbage.



You know how I know you're new here........


Seriously, don't try to make this all about you and your feels.

Sack up, do some research and try to keep up with the rest of us.

It's a much bigger issue than just an infection at this point. Big changes coming to economy and society with this.
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