JB!98 said:

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ttu_85 said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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That is very reassuring. I sure hope that is the case!

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Think I'll still go with 7' just to be sure. Unless she is really hot and friendly.

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Would that reduce to 2-3 inches then. Thank you and good night. I'll be here all week.

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No if SHE was hot and friendly the distance would be -7"

C@LAg said:

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TCTTS said:

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C@LAg said:

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TCTTS said:

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Great, informative post... but also scary as sh*t. It feels like we're slowly going from "It's only serious for old people" to "More and more younger people will die from it too, for no rhyme or reason."

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honest question: where are we seeing more and more young dying?

For the WA cluster of 32-35, I believe the youngest so far has been in their 40s.

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We've had 50 deaths so far in the US. I can't find how many of those are "young," but it sounds like at least a few. So at that rate I'm just doing the math if deaths get into thousands or hundreds of thousands. I know there are a million variables, and I don't mean to sound alarmist, but that's the first thing I've read that sent a chill down my spine, in that there are no common threads among the (admittedly very few) young people who have died so far. It sounds pretty random, no matter how healthy you are. Am I reading that wrong? (no stark, genuinely curious)

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Found it. Youngest in US SO FAR is in their 40s. Sadly that will not last long.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html


I was just curious if I had missed news that we had younger fatalities yet.

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THat map is interesting in the extreme. Large states dominated by large metros are going to get hit the hardest. Look at Seattle, NYC, SF, DC, Chicago, Atlanta. Then here in Texas for our size we are doing well but its just a matter of time before DFW, Houston, SA, Austin go up. Then there is West Va a state with 1.8 mill and no sizable metro's. And I realize this is logical and basic math. Still horrifyingly interesting. its like watching a long tracked F2 tornado roll into downtown Dallas or Atlanta.

In many outbreaks in the past it was rural areas that suffered the most. If the Healthcare systems of these dominate metro's get saturated early that is where the disaster will be. This will be about exposure and how fast it happens.

Illuminaggie said:

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Mordred said:

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law-apt-3g said:

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Permanent scarring of lungs, virus ability to re-infect after recovery, maybe this is manmade due to these odd characteristics of concern.

If so, somebody knows exactly how effed up the virus actually be.

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I'm not sure what you're referring to, and your Emoticon suggests you're joking, but please don't spread the disinformation that this is man-made. It's only going to make fear and panic worse, and we don't need more of that.

Quote:

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No evidence suggests that the virus is man-made. SARS-CoV-2 closely resembles two other coronaviruses that have triggered outbreaks in recent decades, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and all three viruses seem to have originated in bats. In short, the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 fall in line with what we know about other naturally occurring coronaviruses that made the jump from animals to people.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html

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I can post more authoritative sources if you like.

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Of course it shares characteristics... it's a coronavirus. Isn't it kinda weird that it apparently shares the best of those characteristics? It's like a coronavirus greatest hits. 4 hours in the air, most only minutes. Asymptomatic transmission of over a week possible, hours or days for most others. Longer incubation than most... yadda yadda yadda.

Interestingly enough, the only this that it doesn't seem to have a higher value than others is CFR.... which would make it a better bioweapon.

And it showed up at the doorstep of a lab which had numerous prior breaches.

But yeah, how silly to entertain the notion.

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Not silly at all. We are talking about China. The previous breaches info is correct. If you dig deep enough, there were Chinese pres articles about employees of the lab that were arrested in the past for selling animals (that had been experimented on) to the nearby Wuhan market...for people to eat.

Alta said:

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It actually means a lot. The scale affects the shape. And as pointed out over and over again if the US ends up being like Italy then that would be a great result for the US. Not sure why people keep using that as an example.

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Why do you think ending up like Italy would be great for us? Would be 100s of thousands of dead.

Italy data shows 6 deaths under 50 in 16300 cases

I think based on the median age of the infected that their outbreak is at least 3x larger than they have accounted for

so even in an outbreak so far under 50 is showing a 99.9 survival rate (so far)

immuno-compromised people are going to be at risk at any age and there will be outliers and younger people will still get really ill and younger people will get better triage, but the data seems to show 60 as the point where this gets super dicey, especially in an outbreak

I'm just glad we're shutting **** down now here in Texas

riding coattails

People today will still move around. Movie Theaters are open. Eateries are open.

Nobody will fully self Quarentine themselves.

As many door knobs we have touched. As many sneezes and coughs we have walked through. Some will get sick, some won't.

It's a crapshoot

People just keep trying to draw a direct comparison between the numbers. "Look at Italy's numbers we are 10 days from having those same numbers in this country." Etc. That's foolish in my opinion and if we were to end up with those numbers then yea I think it would be a pretty good result. But who knows. We don't know what Italy will end up being like. It's all speculation.

Also, there is currently a limit to the exponential growth to this in countries that seem to have it worse than us or earlier than us. So sure we can scare ourselves silly by just plugging in figures in excel and looking at the math. So yea, I'll be stunned if we end up with 100's of thousands of deaths.

I thought this was great too - sent it to a buddy at work whose family lives in Wuhan (we were talking about America's response at work yesterday). I'm summarizing but his response was basically guy sounds really smart but that isn't all that accurate for how China handled the outbreak in the part of Wuhan where his family lives.

Travel shut off for all DoD personnel and their families. If you're overseas like I am you're stuck indefinitely

Alta said:

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People just keep trying to draw a direct comparison between the numbers. "Look at Italy's numbers we are 10 days from having those same numbers in this country." Etc. That's foolish in my opinion and if we were to end up with those numbers then yea I think it would be a pretty good result. But who knows. We don't know what Italy will end up being like. It's all speculation.

Also, there is currently a limit to the exponential growth to this in countries that seem to have it worse than us or earlier than us. So sure we can scare ourselves silly by just plugging in figures in excel and looking at the math. So yea, I'll be stunned if we end up with 100's of thousands of deaths.

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I can give you arguments as to why we should discount what China or Iran are saying their #s are. I can tell you why our response has nothing to do with what South Korea has done to limit their outbreak.

Italy is the first country that has popped up with an outbreak that is similar to ours (although ours so far seems to have two clusters, Italy had one) with #s we can trust.

Yes, their demographics are worse, we have more ICU capacity and we have some cultural advantages but I do not agree that if we follow their path it is good news for us. At all.

And I don't see how we avoid their path considering that on day 10 with 150 infections they locked down 60,000 people.

The New Rochelle lock down is the only thing we have done approaching that and it was much later in our outbreak.

Quote:

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there is currently a limit to the exponential growth to this in countries that seem to have it worse than us or earlier than us.

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I can only assume you are hanging your hat on Iran, China and South Korea? Maybe Singapore or Japan (who isn't really testing either) and ignoring everybody else?

cone said:

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I'm just glad we're shutting **** down now here in Texas

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Are we really?

Is there a link to see how many people are actually sick or dead from this? Everything I see is just fear mongering

Why do we have viruses?

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/679171382361194527/688370571964186625/video0.mp4

They took muh jerbs!

Location: ???? . Looks like a hotel converted into a hospital. No visible hospital markings, or that blue strip near the wall is one but cannot be read.

Closest other identifier is that sign in the beginning in background in yellow.
"(unreadable)dajiang (unreadable) prefecture hotel.

Yes. That's is a robot of doom going round disinfecting a place.
Don't mind the people obviously not wearing PPE.

Yes - we can all just pull arguments out of our ass on where this ends up. But we all know jack **** on how this will play out. That's why we are where we are. People are scared.

I'm hopeful that we don't end up with sizable amount of folks dead in this country and fairly optimistic that will be the case.

There's really no point in arguing about it - neither of us knows enough to have a legitimate argument.

VaultingChemist said:

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Is 1365 bad? Sounds like a down day for them

Here is an excellent example of a leader addressing the issue. First half is numbers and facts, second half addresses the fear. Coherent sentences, facts, numbers, no extra -ly words thrown in. I know it is long but it is worth a listen.

That tweet jives very closely with the update an Aggie doc posted over on the corona board the same day. To the point that it sounds like they were in the same CDC call or something.

https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3099899

Kozmozag said:

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Why do we have viruses?

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State by state numbers


https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

World breakdown. Click the country to charts, data

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Do you live in New York?

Robk said:

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Here is an excellent example of a leader addressing the issue. First half is numbers and facts, second half addresses the fear. Coherent sentences, facts, numbers, no extra -ly words thrown in. I know it is long but it is worth a listen.

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I saw this live yesterday. I was very impressed with his press conference. And, I am no fan of Andrew Cuomo.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Exhibit 1 why particularly shutting down colleges is dumb and won't work.

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Most college kids just got an extended spring break and will treat it as such. Hopefully they'll blow some of mommy and daddy's money during these times and help keep the lights on at restaurants and bars

Looks like a normal Friday night there. Don't see the connection with colleges being closed.

aggie2812-2 said:

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Do you live in New York?

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Nope, mountains of West Texas.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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AgsMyDude said:

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Looks like a normal Friday night there. Don't see the connection with colleges being closed.

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Because college kids aren't going to just stay home and are arguably in even closer contact with each other at a crowded bar than in class.

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Zactly.

Robert C. Christian said:

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SoupNazi2001 said:

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AgsMyDude said:

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Looks like a normal Friday night there. Don't see the connection with colleges being closed.

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Because college kids aren't going to just stay home and are arguably in even closer contact with each other at a crowded bar than in class.

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Zactly.

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That's what I bet my friend when we got the news, now let me drive by northgate tonight..

He owes me some cash now.

Dayton had a similar reaction.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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AgsMyDude said:

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Looks like a normal Friday night there. Don't see the connection with colleges being closed.

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Because college kids aren't going to just stay home and are arguably in even closer contact with each other at a crowded bar than in class.

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I mean sure but a picture of normal sized Friday night crowd at Bourbon Street doesn't really prove that point.

College kids are going to party regardless. Especially bourbon Street on the weekend.

Empty post.

The numbers coming out of Italy should make it clear to everyone that China vastly under reported their numbers. Per https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6. today Italy has 17,660 confirmed cases; China has 80,976. China has ~4.5x the number of reported cases Italy has reported. The population of China (1.3B) is ~22x that of Italy (60M).

Their are certainly differences between Italy and China; but there are similarities. Italians, by their nature, are "socially close" while the Chinese, particularly in cities, are packed in like sardines in a can and can't help but be "socially close". Italians smoke, the Chinese smoke. They both have aging populations.

I'm not claiming that the Italians are the model of efficiency in dealing with COVID-19. But I do believe they are being fairly transparent with the numbers. Anyone trusting any of the numbers coming out of China is fooling themselves.