TCTTS said:

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Good thread…

0/ Some thoughts on Vision Pro

From someone who was one of the first builders on Google Glass.... 10 years ago!

— Composability Kyle (@KyleSamani) June 5, 2023

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Interesting perspective, especially with part about using existing apps to help spur early adoption. It's definitely s good theory on where they're going.

I see some issues with it though. He mentions the keyboard, and that is one of the biggest IMO. Having all of this screen real estate and being able to put them places is less effective if you're hauling around a physical keyboard. A physical keyboard anchors you to a spot, which limits the physical real estate around you to place a digital screen. I think a digital keyboard makes the most sense, but with a digital keyboard, it's hard to know where your hands are on it unless you're looking at it. The vision pro website also had a clip with a digital keyboard in it, and I never saw any physical ones. I think the mouse needs to be mentioned as well. I could see the function of the mouse being transitioned to eye tracking, which would be cool. The are certainly questions about how the interface will actually work in practice.

Also, if this is geared towards certain information workers as first adopters, that's a very niche audience. Absent some functionality beyond what's been shown, I'm having a hard time seeing how they're planning to expand that audience, even with a smaller and cheaper device.

Lastly, I disagree that this is what magic leap and HoloLens wanted to be from a visuals standpoint. They choose their display type for a reason. It would be exceedingly difficult to get these kinds of visuals using glasses as opposed to goggles, and that's all known. Magic leap and HoloLens don't care, though, because they are more focused on environmental interaction. Seeing your surroundings and projecting over them is more important than projecting your surroundings under other stuff in their book. I tend to think they're right because the latter comes with the inescapable problem of extra weight and power consumption with the necessary cameras and screens. It also does not lend itself to everyday use, and such a device essentially becomes a computer, not a wearable.



Aside from that, he's right that this is work first. There's really nothing about it that lends itself to use out of the office unless you're single. I could see it for gaming, but never just watching something unless you're by yourself. No family is going to sit down and wear this for movie night. For one, there's nothing familial or reassuring about wearing goggles and looking at each other's avatars. For two, the cost would be astronomical. For three, if you have younger children this would be a disaster waiting to happen.

I sure hope those things happen later rather than sooner.

TCTTS said:

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Yeah, MacRumors and others have been pretty consistent in their reporting that the sleeker, cheaper, consumer-friendly model is roughly two years behind this one, and is already pretty far along in its development. So if this is releasing in early 2024, we're looking at early-to-mid 2026 for the next iteration (with no delays, of course).

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Yup, the price right now is insane but they're not trying to make their money on the first gen. I'm a bit skeptical about typical office use, but anyone who thinks Apple can't take a product like this to a mass market hasn't been paying attention.

Apple has a huge existing market/ecosystem with the AppStore, mobile games are a multibillion dollar industry and they tap into their existing demo. It's hooked up to an AppleTV playing family games on the weekend. Dad uses it to watch games and play NBA 2k at night, mom uses one for her side hustle when the kids are at school.

Their existing ecosystem is the key here that makes adoption so much easier than other VR systems, by the third gen it won't be that surprising for the typical Apple family to have one in their house.

Redstone said:

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Have known about this product for quite some time. I won't be buying one, but here is my fundamental issue with Apple:

Once upon a time, FedGov declared Microsoft an illegal monopoly simply because they bundled web browser with operating system. Now, Apple does the exact same thing and also requires third-party developers to use their web engine, making all iOS browsers Safari with different sets of add-ons and extensions, but no one at the DoJ gives a hoot!?!?

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That's because the case was really about forcing Microsoft to turn over a backdoor to their systems.

At the end of the day we are gonna be forced to adapt to a new type of user interface.

Spacial computing.

The interface is controlled by our eyeballs.

Selection is done with a finger gesture not connected to any device.

Voice controlled computers and to voice dictation is troublesome now, so adapting to that will be key.

Apple still aiming to release a more affordable version of Vision Pro by the end of 2025 https://t.co/UN7lPJl3mR by @ChanceHMiller

— 9to5Mac (@9to5mac) June 11, 2023

You right about the voice input. You've got to have some way to type. I see no way around that issue.

So I agree for the most part. Though voice to text is hugely useful and widely used in different ways, it's an awkward application here. It's generally more useful as a transcription tool for interviews and meetings (I work for company in this space), though talk to text is more widely used than you might think and there's the obvious Siri use case.

That said, I think the biggest market for this is entertainment and that's where Apple is positioned like no one else to take advantage. Mobile gaming is approaching like 2 billion users worldwide, and when you consider the reach of the iPhone and AppStore along with Apple's other platforms the potential is huge. If anyone can make it work they can.

I get what you're saying, but I'm talking about Apple's built in market/demo. There are millions of "Apple families" who are totally ingrained in the ecosystem and this has the potential to be a natural extension of that.

Apple sold 200 something million iPhones last year, 60 million iPads, 50 million Apple watches, somewhere around 25 million Macs, and has 75+ million subscribers each on AppleTV and Apple Music. And many of the game franchises you're talking about have mobile versions, and those developers would readily (and I'd imagine are) work with Apple on versions of their games for their platform. The price point does put it out of reach now, but I can totally see their consumer version of this hitting iPhone prices in a generation or two.

I'm not saying it's a slamdunk, it could absolutely bomb and just not work. But if anyone has the chance to make it work it's Apple.

Hardware cost will probably come down over time, no?

Exactly. It's a lot now, it'll eventually be the cost of an iPad.

I personally don't see the business use case taking off anytime soon for a variety of reasons. Apple's research seems to indicate something different so time will tell.

Like I said, I could be wrong. We can revisit in like 3 years and see where we're at.

Aggie09Derek said:

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Hardware cost will probably come down over time, no?

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Not 70% in a couple years. Expecting the cost to come down that much in 2-3 generations ignores the fact it'll be the latest and greatest hardware and just as expensive because it's a new generation. That's why the price point doesn't change generation to generation.

I doubt the price will ever be comparable to the iPad (at least in the next decade or so), but I could definitely see the Vision/Vision Pro eventually cutting into the MacBook/iPad Pro markets one day. For those of us who have a desktop for our main work, and then a laptop or iPad Pro for working on the go or while traveling, I could see myself using the Vision/Vision Pro instead, with a physical keyboard, to get work done when I'm not home. I would never consistently wear goggles for eight hours a day, but in two-hour spurts, on the road, totally.

Quad Dog said:

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You expect the cost to drop $3000 to match the price of an iPad?

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Not a base 399 type model, but I can totally see something like a 3rd/4th gen consumer headset hitting in the iPad Pro range around 999.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Aggie09Derek said:

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Hardware cost will probably come down over time, no?

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Not 70% in a couple years. Expecting the cost to come down that much in 2-3 generations ignores the fact it'll be the latest and greatest hardware and just as expensive because it's a new generation. That's why the price point doesn't change generation to generation.

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You're assuming only one product line. We could totally see a split off consumer line vs the pro, something Apple has often done in the past (MacBook Pro vs Air, iPhone Pro/iPhone/iPhone SE, etc.).

fig96 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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Aggie09Derek said:

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Hardware cost will probably come down over time, no?

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Not 70% in a couple years. Expecting the cost to come down that much in 2-3 generations ignores the fact it'll be the latest and greatest hardware and just as expensive because it's a new generation. That's why the price point doesn't change generation to generation.

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You're assuming only one product line. We could totally see a split off consumer line vs the pro, something Apple has often done in the past (MacBook Pro vs Air, iPhone Pro/iPhone/iPhone SE, etc.).

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The current gen base iPad's starting price point is still 55% of the Pro model's and only 30% lower than the original's, after 10 years and accounting for inflation. If they had a cheaper consumer version right now and followed that same model, it would still be $1900. Even if there was a more basic consumer version that achieved that same 30% price drop through economies of scale and technological advancement in only 2-3 generations, it would still be the equivalent of ~$1400.

That said, Apple's history of behavior is the opposite of what you are suggesting. All of those product splits you mention occurred in the opposite direction, with Apple adding the more premium pro products at higher price points to already existing consumer lines, not the other way around.

There is very little, if anything, to currently suggest that prices will ever fall like you predict and reach even iPad Pro levels. Unless Apple changes direction or encounters some incredible technological breakthrough, this will always be a very expensive product line.


And I can see them changing direction. They almost have to. Their original sales goal was 1 million units. That's been revised down to 150 thousand. Either they've realized they totally missed the mark or they're trying to set themselves up for a huge part on the back by beating a bar on the floor. If they do change direction and opt for a cheaper model with lower specs, I doubt they've been working on it up til now.

TCTTS said:

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I would never consistently wear goggles for eight hours a day, but in two-hour spurts, on the road, totally.

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And this is a large part of Apple's problem: That is a highly limited use case for such an expensive product. Of all the organizations I've seen, very few people fit the mold of having a desktop and laptop. Most have laptops and docking stations. If you, as someone who is as enthusiastic about this as anyone, wouldn't consider wearing it in the office on the regular, there's not going to be many who would, and most companies aren't going to buy the equivalent of a second high end computer for people to use on occasion. If business productivity is their core target market, that's a very small one all things considered.

Quote:

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That said, Apple's history of behavior is the opposite of what you are suggesting. All of those product splits you mention occurred in the opposite direction, with Apple adding the more premium pro products at higher price points to already existing consumer lines, not the other way around.

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The iPhone SE says hi.

And like I said, I might be wrong. We'll see in a couple years.

You think the price will be $3,500 for long?

:-) https://t.co/JgQBFLdb2l

— Robert Scoble (@Scobleizer) June 14, 2023

fig96 said:

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Quote:

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That said, Apple's history of behavior is the opposite of what you are suggesting. All of those product splits you mention occurred in the opposite direction, with Apple adding the more premium pro products at higher price points to already existing consumer lines, not the other way around.

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The iPhone SE says hi.

And like I said, I might be wrong. We'll see in a couple years.

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The 5S, 6Pro, and 6S Pro say hi. The 5S was the first bifurcation of the iPhone line and was a higher specced 5 with Siri, while the 5C released at the same time was a continuation of the 5. The 6 Pro was a larger 6, same as the 6S Pro. SE was less about providing a cheaper consumer level option than it was about capturing sales from the segment of the market that continued to hold onto or buy the 5S because of its styling and size. Simply put, a lot of people didn't like the design changes in the 6 and 6S, so Apple put a 6 into a 5S form factor and sold it. That also meant they stopped selling and supporting the 5S earlier.

Like I said, they've always introduced a consumer line and then moved to premium.

I mean there's also the MacBook Air, 13" MacBook Pro, and the iPad Mini.

And the simple fact is we're not gonna know how this is gonna go for several years. So, like I've said multiple times, we'll see.

MacBook Air was originally a premium product priced above the MacBook, but popularity and lowering production prices lead to the discontinuation of the MacBook and the Air being the entry level offering.

As far as the 13" MacBook Pro and iPad Mini, those are form factor design decisions, not necessarily options made to be cheaper, consumer level products.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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MacBook Air was originally a premium product priced above the MacBook, but popularity and lowering production prices lead to the discontinuation of the MacBook and the Air being the entry level offering.

As far as the 13" MacBook Pro and iPad Mini, those are form factor design decisions, not necessarily options made to be cheaper, consumer level products.

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And priced below the MacBook Pros. And yes, different form factors can make things cheaper...hmm