I know a lot of people are looking at graphs and seeing the seasonal trends in the NE, but I'm still not sure there will even be a seasonal increase here. We will have about 20-25% more of our population vaccinated by our "seasonal" time in June, if that is in fact correct, compared to what states like Michigan had when they began their spike recently. Michigan wouldn't see anywhere near the spike if they rolled out vaccines 2.5 to 3 months earlier, which is our timeline for June.
I mean, maybe some children spread it to one another where we don't have any of their age vaccinated, but they will end up in the hospitals at extremely low numbers. So they'll claim cases went up ever so slightly, but deaths/hospitalizations will remain really low.
By the end of May, with us are averaging 268k shots a day. On the conservative, lets say that reduced to 225,000 through the end of May, just assuming demand begins to do down a bit over the next 56 days.
In theory, that's 12,600,000 more doses. For sake of easy math, lets just divide by 2, 6.3 million 1st doses and 6.3 million 2nd doses. That would put us at 14.4 million, or 67% of adults and 50% of the population total with a single dose. All 14.4mm of this population is still roughly 80% less likely to spread it even if they don't have their 2nd dose, and 95-99% less likely to get a severe disease. And while it's 67% of all adults, it's closer to 80-85% of the high risk ages.
Then you will have 10.9 million of those 14.4 million who will have their 2nd doses. Or 51% of adults, and 37% of the population total. This population is 95% less likely to spread it, and virtually 99-100% less likely to get a severe disease
When you add in natural immunity, which would likely be about 25-30% of the remaining unvaccinated population(and maybe higher as people who are less likely to get in line to get the vaccine sometimes coincide with those that know they already had it), and factor in that much of that unvaccinated population is 0-18 years old, which again get less severe disease, are less likely to spread it, etc., I'm just not sure where the virus goes at that point. Our seasonal spike will be nothing in June.