Did a little math...

Present Top 6 RPI
1 Kent
2 A&M
3 GA
4 AR
5 UNC
6 TN

If everyone sweeps their weekend...

If A&M goes 0-3
1 AR
2 Kent
3 UNC
4 GA
5 TN
6 A&M (bottom, nobody can catch us from below)

If A&M goes 1-2
1 Kent
2 AR
3 UNC
4 GA
5 A&M
6 TN

If A&M goes 2-1
1 Kent
2 A&M
3 UNC
4 AR
5 GA
6 TN

If A&M goes 3-0
1 A&M
2 Kent
3 UNC
4 GA
5 AR
6 TN


The above would be worse case. If there are losses from anybody in the top 6, A&M gets better. For example, a loss by Kentucky would drop their RPI points significantly. If GA sweeps and Kentucky has one loss, GA would jump Kentucky.

I think if we get swept and end at RPI 6, we won't be top 8. Hopefully if we grab 1 it will be good enough.

Since it is fun, I predict...

1 A&M (2-1 weekend) 0
2 AR (1-2 weekend) -27
3 GA (3-0 weekend) -29
4 Kentucky (2-1 weekend) -33
5 UNC (2-1 weekend) -60
6 TN (2-1 weekend) -159


AR, GA, and Kent would be very close and could easily go up and down based on SOS results.

AgEng06 said:

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I think if we get swept and end at RPI 6, we won't be top 8. Hopefully if we grab 1 it will be good enough.

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Agreed. It might have to change our entire Hoover philosophy. We may need a deep run to reclaim the Seed if that's the case.

it is good to know that if the Ags win 2 of 3...

could be as high as the #2 overall seed

caleblyn said:

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Since it is fun, I predict...

1 A&M (2-1 weekend) 0
2 AR (1-2 weekend) -27
3 GA (3-0 weekend) -29
4 Kentucky (2-1 weekend) -33
5 UNC (2-1 weekend) -60
6 TN (2-1 weekend) -159


AR, GA, and Kent would be very close and could easily go up and down based on SOS results.

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What are the numbers? TN -159?

Those numbers represent how many RPI points they are back of 1st place.

New prediction with two games remaining

1 A&M (1-1) 0
2 AR -(1-1) -25
3 GA (2-0) -36
4 Kent (1-1) -42
5 UNC (1-1) -122
6 TN (1-1) -151

I think a win today gives us a 1, 2, or 3 seed.

Sweep Arky and I think we'll get the 1.

Wabs said:

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I think a win today gives us a 1, 2, or 3 seed.

Sweep Arky and I think we'll get the 1.

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Win 2/3 and I think we get #3

Sweep and yeah I think #1 barring one of the top 4 teams getting hot and winning their conference tournament

Remember part of the seeding is trying to get the SEC teams on the same side of the bracket as much as they can without it being obvious. There's no doubt the SEC will be the #1 seed, the only question is whether thats us or Kentucky at this point. From there I think we could see 2 and 3 go to the ACC then 4 and 5 to the SEC. Right now the SEC has 1-5 in the RPI but we know for certain they won't seed it that way. I'm pretty certain 1, 4 and 5 will come from the SEC. Then I could see us having like 6 or 7.

The top 8 may be getting closer to set and I think we locked up a spot last night. However; people will forget about the regular season during the post season tourny next week so those top 8 could be shuffled significantly.

Agryan00 said:

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The top 8 may be getting closer to set and I think we locked up a spot last night. However; people will forget about the regular season during the post season tourny next week so those top 8 could be shuffled significantly.

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At this point I think we've locked up a top 8. The biggest question is how do they handle the fact that the SEC has the top 5 in the RPI and the ACC has the next 4? They won't give the SEC 5 of the 8 so someone is gonna be disappointed. I generally don't think the tournaments matter much but in this case I think Tennessee and Georgia probably have a lot to play for in Hoover.

LOYAL AG said:

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Agryan00 said:

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The top 8 may be getting closer to set and I think we locked up a spot last night. However; people will forget about the regular season during the post season tourny next week so those top 8 could be shuffled significantly.

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At this point I think we've locked up a top 8. The biggest question is how do they handle the fact that the SEC has the top 5 in the RPI and the ACC has the next 4? They won't give the SEC 5 of the 8 so someone is gonna be disappointed. I generally don't think the tournaments matter much but in this case I think Tennessee and Georgia probably have a lot to play for in Hoover.

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Wake is 9 and after last night, they are only 15 - 13 in the ACC. That won't cut it. They could put an SEC team at 8 and Wake at 9 and say to Wake, prove us wrong

The SEC tournament will not matter, unless someone like TN wins it. Presently, I think TN is #5 SEC and will miss the top 8.

If A&M wins one more vs. Arky, the worst RPI finish will be #2 for regular season, behind a 3-0 weekend Kentucky.

If A&M loses the next two, the worst RPI finish would be #4, behind AR, KY, and GA.

LOYAL AG said:

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Remember part of the seeding is trying to get the SEC teams on the same side of the bracket as much as they can without it being obvious. There's no doubt the SEC will be the #1 seed, the only question is whether thats us or Kentucky at this point. From there I think we could see 2 and 3 go to the ACC then 4 and 5 to the SEC. Right now the SEC has 1-5 in the RPI but we know for certain they won't seed it that way. I'm pretty certain 1, 4 and 5 will come from the SEC. Then I could see us having like 6 or 7.

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There's just really no reasonable path to getting the ACC in the 2 & 3 hole. Not suggesting the committee isn't for sale, but there's no reasonable way to get there. UNC lost last night to drop to #6. They're locked into the Top 8 from an RPI standpoint and have 2 road games vs. Duke (so road games for RPI, but not true road games as it'll be a 50/50 mix of fans probably). Clemson won a barn burner, 12-10 vs a not so good BC last night. They have to sweep to remain Top 8. I don't see any way they get back into the top 4 seeds after last weekend absent a great run through Charlotte.

I still think you're most likely scenario is UNC sneaking in at 3 or 4 to break up the top 4 from being all SEC. Otherwise I don't see how you do it.

caleblyn said:

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The SEC tournament will not matter, unless someone like TN wins it. Presently, I think TN is #5 SEC and will miss the top 8.

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You think they'll miss the Top 8 in the RPI? or a Top 8 seed? I'm pretty sure they've already clinched a Top 8 RPI through the regular season per Boyd's.

And I see no way they miss the Top 8 seeds. They're closer to finding their way to #1 (unlikely) than they are to miss the Top 8 barring an absolute collapse against USCe.

Sean98 said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Remember part of the seeding is trying to get the SEC teams on the same side of the bracket as much as they can without it being obvious. There's no doubt the SEC will be the #1 seed, the only question is whether thats us or Kentucky at this point. From there I think we could see 2 and 3 go to the ACC then 4 and 5 to the SEC. Right now the SEC has 1-5 in the RPI but we know for certain they won't seed it that way. I'm pretty certain 1, 4 and 5 will come from the SEC. Then I could see us having like 6 or 7.

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There's just really no reasonable path to getting the ACC in the 2 & 3 hole. Not suggesting the committee isn't for sale, but there's no reasonable way to get there. UNC lost last night to drop to #6. They're locked into the Top 8 from an RPI standpoint and have 2 road games vs. Duke (so road games for RPI, but not true road games as it'll be a 50/50 mix of fans probably). Clemson won a barn burner, 12-10 vs a not so good BC last night. They have to sweep to remain Top 8. I don't see any way they get back into the top 4 seeds after last weekend absent a great run through Charlotte.

I still think you're most likely scenario is UNC sneaking in at 3 or 4 to break up the top 4 from being all SEC. Otherwise I don't see how you do it.

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I agree and still think it's what happens. We know the committee doesn't want the SEC dominating Omaha and the way to avoid that is to put all of us on the same side which means 1-4-5-8 or 2-3-6-7. It's what's gonna happen.

Sean98 said:

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caleblyn said:

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The SEC tournament will not matter, unless someone like TN wins it. Presently, I think TN is #5 SEC and will miss the top 8.

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You think they'll miss the Top 8 in the RPI? or a Top 8 seed? I'm pretty sure they've already clinched a Top 8 RPI through the regular season per Boyd's.

And I see no way they miss the Top 8 seeds. They're closer to finding their way to #1 (unlikely) than they are to miss the Top 8 barring an absolute collapse against USCe.

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I don't think the committee will give the SEC 5 top 8 seeds. So, one of us is probably out. It probably comes down to either the team with the lowest RPI (Tenn currently) or the team that finished in 5th in the standings (Georgia currently). But those could change with some games still left to play. Right now I think Georgia is the most likely to be left out but it isn't over yet.

Your points are valid and make sense. No arguments from me. However, the committee never makes their decisions based on validity and common sense.

I do not see the SEC and ACC getting 7 top 8's. That would not follow the normal pattern. Two of the top 8 seeds will come from outside the SEC and ACC. Who is most likely to fall off. In my opinion, it should be TN.

It will definitely be an interesting case for the committee. Right now the RPI is SEC #1-5, then ACC #6-9 before a smattering of mid-majors, Big 12 and 1 each from the PAC, ACC, SEC through 16.

It's a pretty big stretch to get any non-ACC/SEC team in the Top 8. I agree that they won't have all 8 from ACC/SEC. Oklahoma and Oregon State are the two most likely candidates there. Or do they reward a mid-major and put Indiana State in there? That would be a real stretch in my opinion but they are #10 in the RPI right now. The needs report says there is no way for them to reach the Top 8 and they need to win 2 of 3 to stay in the Top 16. They're likely to fall even more during the Valley tournament. I can't see them in the Top 8.

Oregon State and Oklahoma are both locked into the Top 16 but have no way to reach the Top 8. Right now they are #11 and #13 respectively. Unless they have a terrible loss or two to finish the season I would frankly expect both of them to sneak their way into the Top 8.

As of Friday I would project (and finishing records): * = Conference Champ

1. Kentucky (2-0) *
2. A&M (1-1)
3. Tennessee (2-0)
4. Arkansas (1-1)
5. Clemson (2-0)
6. UNC (1-1) *
7. Oklahoma (1-0) *
8. Oregon St. (2-0) *
9. Georgia (2-0)
10. Florida State (2-0)
11. Indiana State (2-0) *
12. Wake Forest (1-1)
13. Virginia (2-0)
14. East Carolina (2-0) *
15. UC-Santa Barbara (2-0) *
16. Oklahoma State

Others in Consideration: NC State, Duke, Miss State, Dallas Baptist, UC-Irvine

It's honestly hard to get any other non-SEC/non-ACC teams in there right now. Duke and NC State probably deserve to be in ahead of Ok State, and maybe above UC-SB but I continue to believe the committee will stretch to get an additional West Coast team in. If UC-SB drops one to Riverside they're toast, but until they do I'm putting them in. An extra Regional 8 miles from another regional (Durham) doesn't help the NCAA make money.

caleblyn said:

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New prediction with two games remaining

1 A&M (1-1) 0
2 AR -(1-1) -25
3 GA (2-0) -36
4 Kent (1-1) -42
5 UNC (1-1) -122
6 TN (1-1) -151

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As it stands now, Georgia will not be seeded higher than Tennessee. The Vols currently have the second best record in the SEC, the best overall record, the most wins of any team and the series win over Georgia, AND there is no video of them cheating to win a game!

Sean98 said:

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It will definitely be an interesting case for the committee. Right now the RPI is SEC #1-5, then ACC #6-9 before a smattering of mid-majors, Big 12 and 1 each from the PAC, ACC, SEC through 16.

It's a pretty big stretch to get any non-ACC/SEC team in the Top 8. I agree that they won't have all 8 from ACC/SEC. Oklahoma and Oregon State are the two most likely candidates there. Or do they reward a mid-major and put Indiana State in there? That would be a real stretch in my opinion but they are #10 in the RPI right now. The needs report says there is no way for them to reach the Top 8 and they need to win 2 of 3 to stay in the Top 16. They're likely to fall even more during the Valley tournament. I can't see them in the Top 8.

Oregon State and Oklahoma are both locked into the Top 16 but have no way to reach the Top 8. Right now they are #11 and #13 respectively. Unless they have a terrible loss or two to finish the season I would frankly expect both of them to sneak their way into the Top 8.

As of Friday I would project (and finishing records): * = Conference Champ

1. Kentucky (2-0) *
2. A&M (1-1)
3. Tennessee (2-0)
4. Arkansas (1-1)
5. Clemson (2-0)
6. UNC (1-1) *
7. Oklahoma (1-0) *
8. Oregon St. (2-0) *
9. Georgia (2-0)
10. Florida State (2-0)
11. Indiana State (2-0) *
12. Wake Forest (1-1)
13. Virginia (2-0)
14. East Carolina (2-0) *
15. UC-Santa Barbara (2-0) *
16. Oklahoma State

Others in Consideration: NC State, Duke, Miss State, Dallas Baptist, UC-Irvine

It's honestly hard to get any other non-SEC/non-ACC teams in there right now. Duke and NC State probably deserve to be in ahead of Ok State, and maybe above UC-SB but I continue to believe the committee will stretch to get an additional West Coast team in. If UC-SB drops one to Riverside they're toast, but until they do I'm putting them in. An extra Regional 8 miles from another regional (Durham) doesn't help the NCAA make money.

These are the 8 national seeds the committee will pick right now. Assuming Oregon State wins series against Arizona. This will be the top 8. As far as order I predict something like 1 Kentucky 2 TAMU or Arky 3 Tennessee 4 UNC 5 Clemson 6 TAMU or Arky 7 Oregon State 8 OU

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VaTech throttled in back to back games by UVa. Should knock the Hokies off the bubble and cement the Cavs as a host

RPI

A&M will finish no lower than #3. Win today, we will be #1 or #2, depending on KY result today.

Georgia should finish one spot ahead of TN at #5 and #6. One of these teams will most likely be outside the top 8.

I think the lowest we can fall to is the #5 seed.

dermdoc said:

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I think the lowest we can fall to is the #5 seed.

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Yep. Win today and we could go as high as 2, lose today and I think it's 5 or 6 depending on if we go
0-BBQ in Hoover

dermdoc said:

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I think the lowest we can fall to is the #5 seed.

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Edit: double post

I agree the SEC will be limited to 4 national seeds and they will try to stack the SEC on one side of Omaha

My bold predictions
The sec will be 1,3,4,5,9,12,and possibly 16 that keeps most of the SEC on one side of Omaha bracket

A KY loss means that the winner of A&M will finish #1 and the loser #3 in RPI.

Prince Ali double bubbles

Wrong thread but I'm leaving it

Georgia's going to make it easy on the committee by losing a home series to Florida. Florida about to be 28-26 on the season. They should 100% throw the first game in Hoover so they finish 28-27. If they win the first round game they'll have to win at least one more to stay eligible. If they lose the first they're in.

what a great series win for the Ags

should be the #2 or #3 overall seed

hopefully get a regional and SR pairing with new teams

clubs that have never been to Blue Bell --- maybe Virginia, Indiana State, or UCSB