W said:

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what a great series win for the Ags

should be the #2 or #3 overall seed

hopefully get a regional and SR pairing with new teams

clubs that have never been to Blue Bell --- maybe Virginia, Indiana State, or UCSB

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agreed. Should be ranked 2 or 3 and with RPi at 1…depending on how well we do in Hoover, 2 seed is reachable.

Sean98 said:

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Georgia's going to make it easy on the committee by losing a home series to Florida. Florida about to be 28-26 on the season. They should 100% throw the first game in Hoover so they finish 28-27. If they win the first round game they'll have to win at least one more to stay eligible. If they lose the first they're in.

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how does that work?

My understanding is that you have to have a winning record to qualify for the CWS. The first round of the SEC tournament is single elimination unless you get a bye (top 4 if I recall correctly). So if Florida game one, the are done with a 28-27 record if they win game one and move on to the double elimination rounds and then lose the next two they finish 29-29.

Sea Pony 07 said:

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My understanding is that you have to have a winning record to qualify for the CWS. The first round of the SEC tournament is single elimination unless you get a bye (top 4 if I recall correctly). So if Florida game one, the are done with a 28-27 record if they win game one and move on to the double elimination rounds and then lose the next two they finish 29-29.

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Maybe I spent too much time in the sun, but my math tells me that a game one win on Tuesday would put Florida 3 games over .500, so they could not finish below .500.

W said:

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what a great series win for the Ags

should be the #2 or #3 overall seed

hopefully get a regional and SR pairing with new teams

clubs that have never been to Blue Bell --- maybe Virginia, Indiana State, or UCSB

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UCSB has been to Olsen before. It's been a minute but they were here back in Regionals in 2013

twk said:

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Sea Pony 07 said:

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My understanding is that you have to have a winning record to qualify for the CWS. The first round of the SEC tournament is single elimination unless you get a bye (top 4 if I recall correctly). So if Florida game one, the are done with a 28-27 record if they win game one and move on to the double elimination rounds and then lose the next two they finish 29-29.

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Maybe I spent too much time in the sun, but my math tells me that a game one win on Tuesday would put Florida 3 games over .500, so they could not finish below .500.

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You're right. I gave them an extra loss somewhere in there

BurnetAggie99 said:

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W said:

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what a great series win for the Ags

should be the #2 or #3 overall seed

hopefully get a regional and SR pairing with new teams

clubs that have never been to Blue Bell --- maybe Virginia, Indiana State, or UCSB

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UCSB has been to Olsen before. It's been a minute but they were here back in Regionals in 2013

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We were at the Corvallis Regional in 2013, Did play UCSB twice in that regional..

Haha. You forgot to remove the hypothetical game 1 loss in the revised scenario.

Conference tourney may not mean anything for us but dang I really want to see our bats light some folks up. Like today.

Math is hard.

Agreed with earlier statement that Georgia made it easier on committee with a series loss to UF. Now four SEC teams easily in the Top 8 seeds - TAMU, UK, UT, and UA.

Predictions before SEC tournament?

UT - 1
UK - 2
TAMU - 3
UA - 6

AggiesinNC said:

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Agreed with earlier statement that Georgia made it easier on committee with a series loss to UF. Now four SEC teams easily in the Top 8 seeds - TAMU, UK, UT, and UA.

Predictions before SEC tournament?

UT - 1
UK - 2
TAMU - 3
UA - 6

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It's kind of a mess because UT has the lowest RPI and frankly not as good of a resume. But they are SEC co-champs. UK still likely #1 right now for me. Question is UT or A&M at the 2? They could slot UNC at #3 bit I think they'll be #4 or #5. Arkie likely #5 or #6 now. Clemson in that 5/6 mix then a big drop-off for #7/8. OU, Oregon State likely.

Could be some nasty pairings for #4-7. Wake, Florida State, Virginia, NC State.

AggiesinNC said:

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Agreed with earlier statement that Georgia made it easier on committee with a series loss to UF. Now four SEC teams easily in the Top 8 seeds - TAMU, UK, UT, and UA.

Predictions before SEC tournament?

UT - 1
UK - 2
TAMU - 3
UA - 6

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Kentucky seeded above A&M would be an absolute joke. They played a decidedly easier schedule and we absolutely abused them head to head.

What it should be but won't happen

KY should be #1
A&M should be #2
Arky #3
NC #4
TN #5
Clem #6
Or St #7
OU #8

AgRN16 said:

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AggiesinNC said:

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Agreed with earlier statement that Georgia made it easier on committee with a series loss to UF. Now four SEC teams easily in the Top 8 seeds - TAMU, UK, UT, and UA.

Predictions before SEC tournament?

UT - 1
UK - 2
TAMU - 3
UA - 6

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Kentucky seeded above A&M would be an absolute joke. They played a decidedly easier schedule and we absolutely abused them head to head.

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We didn't play Kentucky.

AgRN16 said:

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Kentucky seeded above A&M would be an absolute joke. They played a decidedly easier schedule and we absolutely abused them head to head.

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I'm tempted to buy premium just for the laugh/cry emoji.

I think he meant meat judging

caleblyn said:

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What it should be but won't happen

KY should be #1
A&M should be #2
Arky #3
NC #4
TN #5
Clem #6
Or St #7
OU #8

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I mean, that's tough for the committee (and me) because #5 Tennessee beat UK head to head AT Kentucky and finished ahead of UK, A&M and Arkansas in the conference.

I think there's a chance you'd see UK, A&M, UT, UNC, Arkie then 6-8 as you suggest.

Question is what do you do with Indiana St? Their RPI is up to #9 now. If we were debating Sycamores vs (insert 5th SEC/3rd ACC team here) I think Indiana St would be in. But they'd have to steal from Oregon St or OU and I don't think that'll happen. Then again OrSt/OU don't deserve that easy of a path to Omaha. Them again that's ensuring a non SEC/ACC team in Omaha... So many conflicting, shouldn't be a part of the equation but will be decisions for the committee. ... In case it wasn't clear enough how I feel, the entire committee is a joke. But then again so is the RPI calculation and the new Quad calculation system.

BBQ said:

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I think he meant meat judging

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username checks out

Sean98 said:

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caleblyn said:

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What it should be but won't happen

KY should be #1
A&M should be #2
Arky #3
NC #4
TN #5
Clem #6
Or St #7
OU #8

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I mean, that's tough for the committee (and me) because #5 Tennessee beat UK head to head AT Kentucky and finished ahead of UK, A&M and Arkansas in the conference.

I think there's a chance you'd see UK, A&M, UT, UNC, Arkie then 6-8 as you suggest.

Question is what do you do with Indiana St? Their RPI is up to #9 now. If we were debating Sycamores vs (insert 5th SEC/3rd ACC team here) I think Indiana St would be in. But they'd have to steal from Oregon St or OU and I don't think that'll happen. Then again OrSt/OU don't deserve that easy of a path to Omaha. Them again that's ensuring a non SEC/ACC team in Omaha... So many conflicting, shouldn't be a part of the equation but will be decisions for the committee. ... In case it wasn't clear enough how I feel, the entire committee is a joke. But then again so is the RPI calculation and the new Quad calculation system.

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Oregon State losing to Arizona last night cost them that Pac-12 title, and, probably, their chance to get a top 8 seed. You've got your four certain SEC teams (KY, UT, ARK, A&M), and two certain ACC teams (UNC, Clemson). I think OU as Big XII champ gets one. For the final spot, it's either FSU or Indiana State. I could see ISU getting it at 8 and FSU 9 -- most of the 9-16 teams would be quite happy with only a trip to Terre Haute standing between them and Omaha, if they can't host.

Guess I went to bed before the Arizona result and hadn't looked at scores this morning. Thanks.

Think we'll see
KY
A&M
AR
NC
Clemson
Tennessee
Or St
Indiana St

That puts three of the SEC on one side of the bracket while not making it completely obvious they're trying to hold back the SEC.

Oregon State is effectively west coast bias as they're giving a top 8 to the tallest midget out west. The Beavers have three Q3/Q4 losses and are 10-10 in Q1/Q2 games. To me that's not a great resume but they're out west and that matters.

Curious on Indiana St given the super regional hosting problems in the past but maybe they've figured that out. Their resume isn't great with 34 of their 50 games against Q3/Q4 and 4 losses from those games. Still they're a mid-major and that matters.

There's a pretty big drop in resume after RPI top 6 with Georgia and Florida St both being at 17 conference wins. We know they aren't going that low for a 5th SEC team but what about a 3rd ACC one? Probably not.

Notably I skipped over UCSB because they have 5 Q3/Q4 losses which seems like way too many. They are 21-2 in their last 23 but that was against a bad schedule with 17 of those 23 RPI 110 or higher and a whopping 11 of them against RPI 215 or higher. Just not a top 8 resume. I would have them hosting but not a top 8.

I forgot an about OU because I didn't read that far down the RPI. You may be right, they'll replace either ISU or OSU.

SEC tourney might actually affect seeding just because the committee is lazy they might go ahead and draw up the regionals before assigning seeds

The SEC will have four of the national seeds I am thinking 1.2,4,&5 which keeps 3 SEC teams on the same side of the Omaha bracket

Because they know who the 4 SEC teams are they can draw up the regional bracket decide which teams get sent to each location but not put a Seed on the bracket SEC tourney ends then decide who gets to be 1,3,4,5

Obviously being 1 or 4 is not a significant difference but that is my new prediction
Of course the 2/3 seed is interchangeable SEC will be 1,4,5 and either a 2/3

My guess is we are the #4 national seed with UT #1, UK #2, and UNC #3.

My personal opinion is the SEC should be 1-4 and we should be arguing A&M/UK as 2/3. I think the committee gives UNC extra credit winning the ACC.

I don't think anything that happens in Hoover will change anything except for if maybe one of the bubble-ish SEC teams (LSU/OM/UF) makes a deep run to secure their spot. From what I recall in previous years, the conference tournaments have had a minimal impact on seeding. As much as I think there should be a bigger impact, the committee doesn't really time to follow all 30+ conference tournaments and analyze the impact of each game.

I had forgotten about that. Yes, they are hosting Special Olympics super regional weekend. If they booked enough hotel rooms, they would be eligible to host, but I seem to recall their administration not feeling that they should try to have both events. If that's still the case, make ISU 8 and FSU 9, and that solves the problem. That's what should have happened in 2015; we could have been 9 to Missouri State's 8 and hosted. F Eric Hyman.

themissinglink said:

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My guess is we are the #4 national seed with UT #1, UK #2, and UNC #3.

My personal opinion is the SEC should be 1-4 and we should be arguing A&M/UK as 2/3. I think the committee gives UNC extra credit winning the ACC.

I don't think anything that happens in Hoover will change anything except for if maybe one of the bubble-ish SEC teams (LSU/OM/UF) makes a deep run to secure their spot. From what I recall in previous years, the conference tournaments have had a minimal impact on seeding. As much as I think there should be a bigger impact, the committee doesn't really time to follow all 30+ conference tournaments and analyze the impact of each game.

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Unless they take all the 13-17 SEC teams, results at Hoover just about have to be a differential that matters. But, this is the NCAA we are talking about, so you can throw logic out the window.

LOYAL AG said:

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I forgot an about OU because I didn't read that far down the RPI. You may be right, they'll replace either ISU or OSU.

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I would put OU as a 7/8 at about 90% right now. UCSB is too much of a stretch. They're more likely to fall out of the 16 than they are to be a Top 8. I've been arguing with the D1 crew for a couple of weeks about this as they try to put Duke or OkSt in above the Gauchos. They've finally come around it seems.

FSU simply doesn't have a Top 8 resume... But honestly only 6 teams do so the question is "which 2 teams without a top 8 resume sneak in to the Top 8?"

I think OU does despite the home sweep by Lamar. They won the 3rd best RPI conference handily.

At this point I think I'd reward Indiana St. I think they've won 18 or 19 conference series in a row. It's a nod to mid-majors, it satisfies my personal delusion of geographical diversity and it'll make a fringe SEC/ACC team go on the road and play in a tiny park.

Either way, my bigger hope now, whether we're 2 or 3 I want to be paired with UCSB and not Virginia/NC State/Wake.

twk said:

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Unless they take all the 13-17 SEC teams, results at Hoover just about have to be a differential that matters. But, this is the NCAA we are talking about, so you can throw logic out the window.

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Honestly, unless they're really going to dig into the metrics of each game then they shouldn't in my opinion. If Miss State beats us Wednesday throwing their amphibious freak and we pitch Morton and Moss should that jump them into the Top 16? Should it bump us to #6? No because those guys aren't starting games for us in June.

I could see a team like UK trying to win the whole thing, which would be foolish. Vitello has learned his lesson on that finally I think. But again, I'm a conference tourney hater so take anything I say here with a grain of salt.

If A&M successfully makes it through Regionals and Supers, it sure would be nice to not slot in at 3 versus 6 seed Arkansas or 4 versus 5 seed Arkansas. Avoiding having to face Hagen Smith in the opening game would be huge. Eventually you'd probably have to face him but not seeing the best pitcher in baseball right off the bat sure would be nice.

My guess for top 8 seeds

1 Kentucky
2 A&M
3 North Caroline
4 Hogs
5 Vols
6 Clemson
7 Florida State
8 OU

I just don't want to be #1 seed. The curse is real.

LB12Diamond said:

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My guess for top 8 seeds

1 Kentucky
2 A&M
3 North Caroline
4 Hogs
5 Vols
6 Clemson
7 Florida State
8 OU

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FSU lost the series to essentially every team at/near the top of the ACC (did win Duke who also lost to all the top ACC teams). They made their resume in beating Notre Dame and Boston College. They do not deserve a Top 8. They might get it but they don't deserve it.

MR Gadsden said:

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I just don't want to be #1 seed. The curse is real.

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You're safe from that. We will NOT be #1.

That was the only team I was not sure about. They are top 8 RPI so just went with them.

I think the other 7 teams are locks.