***Official Aggies vs. 2023 MLB Draft Thread***

36,276 Views | 171 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Luke The Drifter
Mr.Ackar07
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Round 4, Pick 120: Hunter Haas (Rays) - Slot Value: $552,500
---------------Signed 7/21 - $534,000 - Tweet
Round 5, Pick 139: Nathan Dettmer (Athletics) - Slot Value: $459,800
---------------Signed 7/17 - $425,000 - Link
Round 7, Pick 199: Trevor Werner (Royals) - Slot Value: $269,200
---------------Signed 7/26 - $350,000 - Tweet
Round 11, Pick 318: Jack Moss (Reds) - Slot Value: $150,000*
---------------Signed 7/15 - $150,000 - Link
Round 11, Pick 337: Brandyn Garcia (Mariners) - Slot Value: $150,000*
---------------Signed 7/18 - $150,000 - Link
Round 12, Pick 347: Khristian Curtis^ (Pirates) - Slot Value: $150,000*
---------------Signed 7/20 - $497,500 - Link
Round 13, Pick 376: Will Johnston (Athletics) - Slot Value: $150,000*
---------------Signed 7/17 - $150,000 - Link
Round 17, Pick 504: Logan Britt (Angels) - Slot Value: $150,000*
---------------Signed 7/? - $150,000 - Link
Round 18, Pick 527: Kalae Harrison^^ (Pirates) - Slot Value: $150,000*
---------------Signed 7/24 - $150,000 - Link
Round 19, Pick 568: Stanley Tucker (Red Sox) - Slot Value: $150,000*
---------------Signed 7/23 - $150,000 - Link
Round 19, Pick 572: Isaac Morton (Brewers) - Slot Value: $150,000*
---------------Coming to Texas A&M - Link
Round 19, Pick 577: Charlie Pagliarini (Mariners) - Slot Value: $150,000*
---------------Signed 7/18 - $? - Link
Free Agent Signing: Trey Dillard^^^ (Phillies) - Slot Value: $125,000*
---------------Signed 7/25 - $? - Link
Free Agent Signing: Carson Lambert (Reds) - Slot Value: $125,000*
---------------Signed 8/5 - $? - Link


* Maximum offer without using the bonus pool allocation
^Former Aggie RHP (2021-2022)
^^Former Aggie SS (2021-2022)
^^^Former Aggie RHP (2022)


With the draft now just 33 days away (July 9th - 11th), we should start to see a lot more projections, mock drafts, prospect lists etc. I thought I'd lump everything to watch out for in one post. Categories shown below are based on the 12thman.com classifications due to Covid rules. If I am reading the Covid eligibility rules right, those players who would have or were on baseball rosters in 2020 have until 2025 to complete their 4 years of eligibility; all except for those who then took a red-shirt after the 2020 season will use up their extra eligibility after completion of the 2024 spring season.

Draft Targets:

Seniors
Austin Bost - Independent League FA
Matt Dillard
Carson Lambert - FA
Brett Minnich
Jordan Thompson

Juniors
Evan Aschenbeck
Hank Bard
Travis Chestnut
Nathan Dettmer - Pick #139
Brandyn Garcia - Pick #337
JD Gregson (In the Portal)
Hunter Haas - Pick #120
Will Johnston - Pick #376
Jack Moss - Pick #318
Ryan Targac
Stanley Tucker (In the Portal) - Pick #568
Wyatt Tucker (In the Portal)
Jaren Warwick (In the Portal)
Trevor Werner - Pick #199

Draft-Eligible Sophomores (Turn 21 by August 23rd)
Robert Hogan (In the Portal)
Jace Hutchins
Ty Sexton


High School Recruits
Brett Antolick RHP
Ty Baker RHP
Jack Bell INF
Jason Bodin RHP
Jackson Brasseux LHP
Caden Ferraro LHP
Zachary Frye RHP
Gavin Grahovac OF
Jett Johnson INF
Boots Landry INF
Isaac Morton RHP - Pick #572
Weston Moss RHP
Noah Paddie INF
Carl Schmidt INF
Cade Sorrell OF
Brady Sullivan OF
Paxton Terveen LHP
Austin Vargas LHP
Tyler White RHP
Kaiden Wilson LHP


Junior College Recruits
Cade Climie INF Temple College (Freshman)

D1 Transfers In
Jackson Appel C Penn (Senior)
Eldridge Armstrong III RHP San Diego St. (Sophomore) Not Eligible for Draft
Zane Badmaev RHP Tarleton State (Senior)
Ted Burton INF Michigan (Senior)
Ali Camarillo Jr. INF Cal-State Northridge (Sophomore) Not Eligible for Draft
Tanner Jones RHP Jacksonville State (Sophomore) Not sure if Eligible (Can't find DOB)
Charlie Pagliarini INF Fairfield (Senior) - Pick #577
Hayden Schott OF Columbia (Senior)



Other Names to Follow
Logan Britt (2020-2022 Aggie OF) - Pick #504



The draft will consist of 20 rounds for the third year in a row. Rounds 1-10 have an assigned slot value per spot and rounds 11-20 have a maximum slot value of $125,000. A team can pay above or below slot value if the player and team agree, but if a team does not sign a player taken anywhere in the first 10 rounds, that slot value is forfeited and cannot be used towards other players. A player taken in rounds 11-20 can sign for any amount, but anything over $125,000 (can't find evidence that this amount changed from the prior years, but it might have gone up slightly) will reduce that teams pool of money. Because of these rules, players taken in the first 10 rounds are usually going to sign 99% of the time. 2022 saw 313 of the 316 players taken in the first 10 rounds sign contracts. This also leads to teams utilizing senior signs in the later half of the first 10 rounds to free up slot value money to pay for other signees.

This draft will be even more difficult to predict than last year's group of journeymen. Hunter Haas is generally the highest rated prospect on the team and projects as a 5th round draft pick. After him, the rankings are either unreliable or non-existent. Nathan Dettmer whom some had pegged as a 1st round sleeper after his College World Series heroics has seen his stock drop, and some speculate that teams are still trying to pinpoint his spot; while he has the makeup to be a potential high-end prospect, he has not been able to put it all together consistently. The same can be said about Trevor Werner; scouts love his frame and power, especially the plus arm to man the hot corner, but his swing and miss will cause some concern. I could see him going on Day 2 depending on how much he wants to sign for. That leaves Jack Moss, the professional hitter. Unfortunately, not many team will put stock in a high contact guy that has little power and does not man a high defensive position. I would put him as a poor man's Jake Magnum who went in the 4th round of the 2019 MLB draft out of Mississippi State, but he was a reliable centerfielder. I would expect Jack to fall towards the back half of the draft, rounds 11-20 depending on his desire to go pro.

After those three, I could see a couple of guys being late draft signees or post draft free-agent signees like Troy Claunch and Jake Palisch last year. Brett Minnich, Bradyn Garcia, Will Johnston, and Ryan Targac all have potential to varying degrees, but again, it will come down to their desire to begin their professional careers. I could also see Austin Bost and Jordan Thompson going the Kole Kaler route and continue playing a few years in independent baseball.

The two big names to watch among the incoming freshmen are Cade Sorrell and Gavin Grahovac. Sorrell is a slightly smaller version of LaViolette who has power potential from the left side. Grahovac was seen as the better prospect of the two, but his swing and miss rate this past season has seen him drop a bit. Sorrell is seen as a late 2nd, early 3rd round pick, while Grahovac has fallen back to about round 5. Both will heavily depend on the amount they are willing to sign for. Isaac Morton and Jackson Brasseux are a couple of other names to keep an eye out for. Both pitchers threw consistently in the mid-90s this past spring.

I always try and throw out a former Aggie player that is doing well elsewhere, but Logan Britt is the only name I can come up with this year. He has had a great season with Abilene Christian, hitting .350+ with 12 home runs. I'm not sure where, if any, he will wind up on someone's draft board, but the former standout prospect might draw some interest in the later rounds.

What to look forward to next year:

It was an up and down season with the final few weeks mostly on the up side. Most of the leadership on this team will be gone via eligibility or the draft. Still, there is a good nucleus of hitters to build a team around with LaViolette and Kent, and the potential for Jack Moss to maybe be back. Sdao and Lamkin looked to have come along way from the beginning of the year and could be in the Aggies weekend rotation come next spring. I'm sure Schloss and Co. will also be prowling the portal to bring in some dependable arms and bats to help solidify the Aggies for next season.

For reference:
***Official Aggies vs. 2017 MLB Draft Thread***
***Official Aggies vs. 2018 MLB Draft Thread***
***Official Aggies vs. 2019 MLB Draft Thread***
***Official Aggies vs. 2020 MLB Draft Thread***
***Official Aggies vs. 2021 MLB Draft Thread***
***Official Aggies vs. 2022 MLB Draft Thread***
Wicked Good Ag
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The following players are in the top 200 listing on MLB that are either freshamn or draft eligible

Dettmer
Haas
Cade Sorrel
Gavin Grahovac

those also with high likelyhood to leave would be IMO

Werner
Moss

Targac would be one who would still have leverage if stays and may want to get one more year of college for free/cheap with NIL
aginlakeway
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AG
Wow. What a post. Thank you so much.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
TheChameleon
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AG
Garcia will get drafted. Up to 97 from the left side with a wipeout slider at times and there's very little effort in his delivery. He had some ups and downs this season but he made major strides in terms of showcasing the talent he has.
AggieCrew44
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AG
TheChameleon said:

Garcia will get drafted. Up to 97 from the left side with a wipeout slider at times and there's very little effort in his delivery. He had some ups and downs this season but he made major strides in terms of showcasing the talent he has.
Was gonna come here to say this. Of all the draft eligible players, Garcia probably has the highest pro potential. Lefties that throw that hard don't grow on trees
tcow715
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AG
Wicked Good Ag said:

The following players are in the top 200 listing on MLB that are either freshamn or draft eligible

Dettmer
Haas
Cade Sorrel
Gavin Grahovac

those also with high likelyhood to leave would be IMO

Werner
Moss

Targac would be one who would still have leverage if stays and may want to get one more year of college for free/cheap with NIL
I have decent doubts Moss leaves. The guy has a 60-70 Grade hit tool, but below average in every other category. For the guy to only hit 4 HRs in his draft year while limited to 1B or DH is not great in the eyes of the MLB. The mold of a great college player, but not really someone big league clubs look at due to his limitations.

Targac was ranked in the Top 10 2B headed into the year. His draft stock tanked this season. Hopefully if he comes back he can forget this season happened and get back to his old self.

Personally, I'm ready for Werner to move on whether he is drafted or not.
Mojo5107
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Great post. Can't see Moss staying. What else does he have to prove in college? Think he will be better served to get started and work on any weakness at the next level. Would lose all leverage coming back to school. Thanks again for the in depth analysis. Excellent.
Wicked Good Ag
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I do think Moss and Haas have one leverage year with Covid

I think they are the last group minus certain exceptions that can have an addional year

With NIL the desire to stay in college for where he will slot might make him stay I just dont know if he will
greg.w.h
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AG
Mojo5107 said:

Great post. Can't see Moss staying. What else does he have to prove in college? Think he will be better served to get started and work on any weakness at the next level. Would lose all leverage coming back to school. Thanks again for the in depth analysis. Excellent.
It could be a trade off between more essentially single A college teams v. learning from pros with a longer season. NIL potentially makes the choice harder if it's available avd sufficient.

But yeah…he's already a professional hitter…
Mojo5107
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Werner and Moss will be gone. Lose all leverage if they come back. Moss hit in the 2 hole, non traditional role for a power guy. Asked to get on base, and did, a lot. 140 times (93 hits and 47 walks) out of 262 official at bats. Took a lot of first pitch strikes, worked counts, etc. to "set the table" in Schloss' words for hitters 3-5. Think if he sacrificed average and walks, swung at more pitches, his power numbers go up while average may go down.

Agree has to hit for more power to profile at 1B at next level. Suppose he could come back out of loyalty to the program. Think his body of work over his collegiate career (.370 career in SEC with 196 hits) suggests a different round selection but that is all speculation as I don't know what he is thinking, teams are thinking, and the like. Has limitations which can be addressed at next level. Always risks coming back and regressing as well for a variety of reasons.
Wicked Good Ag
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it is all about where you are drafted and what you are offerred

NIL has changed the possible way players will look at some 10-15 round selection in the future

Haas is in the top 200 in MLB listings Moss is not

But Haas likely projects as a second baseman at the next level, Moss doesnt have the huge power numbers for First Base but he is a prime example of Moneyball system being used by a team

Mojo5107
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100 percent agree with above. Analytics teams may view a Moss or Bost for that matter differently based on all the empirical data that is available. Only other thing I would point out is some players aren't motivated by NIL money vis a vis a dream to play in the MLB and getting started on that path sooner as opposed to later.

On lists, glanced at rankings. You're right on MLB where Haas is ranked while other lists have Moss and not Haas. Garcia, for example who has the most pro potential on the roster isn't on any list which makes no sense. Not sure you can rely on lists one way or the other.
Mojo5107
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Agree. But both came in to school I believe in 2020 so neither get a COVID year ala Bost, Minnich, Johnston and Werner. They are both true Juniors, not COVID juniors.
jja79
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AG
Werner has to leave right? He's proven to be a .250 hitter that strikes out a 1/3 of the time and he's about to turn 23.
Mr.Ackar07
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Updated for the recent transfer additions
Mr.Ackar07
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D1 released their Top 150 college draft prospects (no high schoolers), and Dettmer (102) and Moss (140) made the list. Surprisingly, no Haas; other's have placed Haas higher than both of those two.
Luke The Drifter
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jja79 said:

Werner has to leave right? He's proven to be a .250 hitter that strikes out a 1/3 of the time and he's about to turn 23.

23 is old by MLB draft standards. By the time you're 23, major league teams want you to have a few years of minor league ball under your belt. Unless they see something in him that will get him to the majors in two or three years or so, teams may not want to invest too highly in him. They'd rather spend their money on a younger player they can develop, not an older player that still needs as much development as a 19-year old.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
TarponChaser
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Mojo5107 said:

Werner and Moss will be gone. Lose all leverage if they come back. Moss hit in the 2 hole, non traditional role for a power guy. Asked to get on base, and did, a lot. 140 times (93 hits and 47 walks) out of 262 official at bats. Took a lot of first pitch strikes, worked counts, etc. to "set the table" in Schloss' words for hitters 3-5. Think if he sacrificed average and walks, swung at more pitches, his power numbers go up while average may go down.

Agree has to hit for more power to profile at 1B at next level. Suppose he could come back out of loyalty to the program. Think his body of work over his collegiate career (.370 career in SEC with 196 hits) suggests a different round selection but that is all speculation as I don't know what he is thinking, teams are thinking, and the like. Has limitations which can be addressed at next level. Always risks coming back and regressing as well for a variety of reasons.


Moss is an odd case. He has elite bat-to-ball skills but is below where he needs to be in terms of power. Defensively, he's limited to 1B and he's only OK there. I can see the argument for going but more than anything he needs to get faster, stronger, and more explosive. The question is whether or not he's better able to do that in the minors or on campus.

Werner is a case of having all the physical tools but hasn't put it together at the plate. Defensively, he might be the best defensive 3B prospect in the country. He's got tremendous pop at the plate but doesn't barrel up pitches nearly as often as he should. His strikeout and pop-up numbers aren't good.
jja79
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AG
I agree. I was talking about his motivation to come back. I'm sure he wants to play professionally and his age would be a huge motivator to leave.
Mr.Ackar07
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Draft starts in a little bit, don't expect any Aggies to go on the first day. Maybe one of the recruits will hear their name.
Biggame12
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AG
I personally don't feel like we will have anyone taken before the 6th round.
P.U.T.U
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Waiting to see where my friends son Zane Adams gets drafted. 6'4" 190 LHP throwing upper 90s as a high schooler. Committed to Alabama but don't think A&M will ever face him after he sees the signing bonus
TarponChaser
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P.U.T.U said:

Waiting to see where my friends son Zane Adams gets drafted. 6'4" 190 LHP throwing upper 90s as a high schooler. Committed to Alabama but don't think A&M will ever face him after he sees the signing bonus


I've seen the kid a bit. He's a real good prospect. Draft might depend on conversations with teams about what it would take to sign him.
TAMU1990
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Just a side note - it looks like Arkansas is taking it on the chin with some of their HS signees being taken tonight.
Luke The Drifter
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LSU, too. Bama lost a top recruit as well.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
A-A Ron
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Luke The Drifter said:

LSU, too. Bama lost a top recruit as well.
Won't matter, they will just go shopping in the transfer portal and pull in any top available players.
McInnis
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jja79 said:

Werner has to leave right? He's proven to be a .250 hitter that strikes out a 1/3 of the time and he's about to turn 23.
I agree. And it didn't look like he improved from his 2022 season. But I sure hope we can have a third baseman who can field like he does.
Biggame12
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jja79 said:

Werner has to leave right? He's proven to be a .250 hitter that strikes out a 1/3 of the time and he's about to turn 23.
Werner does not have to leave but he will be signing with a MLB Team
jja79
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I merely meant because of his age he's incented leave. I'm sure he's going to get an opportunity.
hogfan14
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TAMU1990 said:

Just a side note - it looks like Arkansas is taking it on the chin with some of their HS signees being taken tonight.
Yeah something like 13 top 100 players committed, bound to lose a lot. Only four so far really isn't that bad considering.
TAMU1990
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A-A Ron said:

Luke The Drifter said:

LSU, too. Bama lost a top recruit as well.
Won't matter, they will just go shopping in the transfer portal and pull in any top available players.
Yep. I know of a kid that was told to stay in Juco instead of reporting to LSU this fall and to go in 2024. Transfer portal casualty.

Blake Mitchell (LSU HS signee) was never going to school.
ColoradoMooseHerd
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OP - is Stanley Tucker in the Portal? I know people said he was entering, but never saw anything official.
BreNayPop
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Brauny has Tucker in the portal in his running thread in Premium... So I'm assuming that's pretty official
trouble
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Gavin Grahovac has pulled his name from the draft
RAP15
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decision: respected
 
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