***Official Aggies vs. 2021 MLB Draft Thread***

17,447 Views | 60 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Mr.Ackar07
Mr.Ackar07
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Round 2, Pick 39: Izaac Pacheco (Tigers) - Slot Value: $1,906,800
---------------Signed 7/23 - $2,750,000 - Link
Round 4, Pick 112: Dustin Saenz (Nationals) - Slot Value: $517,400
---------------Signed 7/21 - $500,000 - Link
Round 4, Pick 113: Bryce Miller (Mariners) - Slot Value: $512,400
---------------Signed 7/20 - $400,000 - Link
Round 4, Pick 116: Logan Henderson (Brewers) - Slot Value: $497,500
---------------Signed 7/26 - $497,500 - Link
Round 4, Pick 156: Tanner Bibee (Indians) - Slot Value: $336,600
---------------Signed 7/24 - $259,400 - Link
Round 8, Pick 233: Will Frizzell (Nationals) - Slot Value: $179,800
---------------Signed 7/21 - $179,800 - Link
Round 8, Pick 235: Jason Ruffcorn (Phillies) - Slot Value: $177,400
---------------Signed 7/16 - $147,500 - Link
Round 11, Pick 339: Brandon Birdsell (Twins) - Slot Value: $125,000*
---------------Returning to Texas Tech - Link
Round 13, Pick 389: Chandler Jozwiak (Marlins) - Slot Value: $125,000*
---------------Signed 7/30 - $125,000 - Link
Free Agent Signing: Kyle Lovelace (Angels) - Slot Value: $0
---------------Signed 7/13 - $? - Twitter
Free Agent Signing: Nick Dombkowski (Pirates) - Slot Value: $0
---------------Signed 7/16 - $? - Twitter


* Maximum offer without using the bonus pool allocation


With the draft now just 38 days away (July 11th - 13th), we should start to see a lot more projections, mock drafts, prospect lists etc. I thought I'd lump everything to watch out for in one post.

Draft Targets:

Seniors
Ray Alejo
Rody Barker
Bryce Blaum
Hunter Coleman
Chris Farrell
Will Frizzell - Pick #233
Mikey Hoehner
Chandler Jozwiak - Pick #389
Bryce Miller - Pick #113
Dustin Saenz - Pick #112
Logan Sartori
Bryan Sturges

Juniors
Austin Bost
Ty Coleman
Moo Menefee
Brett Minnich
Zane Schmidt
Taylor Smith
Jordan Thompson
Chris Weber

Draft-Eligible Sophomores (Turn 21 by August 25th)
Logan Britt
Jonathan Childress
Alex Magers
Mason Ornelas
Walker Zander


High School/Junior College Recruits
Brayden Edwards RHP (6-4, 200, R/R Fannett, Texas / Hardin-Jefferson)
Jack Hamilton RHP (6-0, 190, R/R College Station, Texas / A&M Consolidated)
Rawley Hector RHP/INF (6-2, 195, R/R Anna, Texas / Anna)
Logan Henderson RHP (5-11, 190, R/R Katy, Texas / Cinco Ranch / McLennan Community College) - Pick #116
Ty Hodge INF (6-2, 105, R/R College Station, Texas / A&M Consolidated)
Will Maynard RHP (6-2, 185, L/R Tomball, Texas / Klein Cain)
Izaac Pacheco INF (6-4, 205, L/R Friendswood, Texas / Friendswood) - Pick #39
Ryan Prager LHP (6-3, 200, L/L Dallas, Texas / Hillcrest)
Will Rizzo RHP (6-1, 210, R/R The Woodlands, Texas / St. Thomas)
Brad Rudis RHP (5-10, 185, R/R Madisonville, Texas / Madisonville)
Chanden Scamardo C (6-2, 200, R/R College Station, Texas / College Station)
Ty Sexton RHP (6-6, 210, R/R Montgomery, Texas / Lake Creek)
Austin Stracener INF (5-11, 170, L/R New Braunfels, Texas / Canyon)
Chase Valentine INF (6-0, 170, R/R Phoenix, Arizona / Sandra Day O'Connor)
Tanner Bibee RHP (6-2, 190, R/R Cal State Fullerton) - Pick #156
Kyle Lovelace C (5-10, 170, R/R Houston) - Signed as Free Agent
Nick Dombkowski LHP (3-2, 195, L/L Hartford) - Signed as Free Agents




Other Names to Follow
Brandon Birdsell (2019 Aggie RHP) - Pick #339
Jason Ruffcorn (2017-2018 Aggie RHP) - Pick #235



The draft will increase to 20 rounds for this go around, but that won't have the biggest impact on the Aggie roster this year. Will Frizzell should have worked his way into a Top 5 round pick and Bryce Miller has the "stuff" to produce at the next level. This should be the end of a decent streak of 1st and 2nd round picks for the Aggies that saw Corbin Martin, Mitchell Kilkenny, Braden Shewmake, John Doxakis, Asa Lacy, Zach DeLoach, and Christian Roa all taken within the first two rounds over the past 4 drafts.

With the addition of 15 more rounds over last year, there's a chance that a few more Aggies could see their names called on the last day for teams wishing to take a chance. I could see Chandler Jozwiak, Dustin Saenz, Moo Menefee, and Jonathan Childress getting a chance; the first two based on decent stretches during this season and the latter two based on potential that was there when they were coming out of high school. Logan Britt and Taylor Smith also have a chance based on raw talent.

For the recruits, I highly doubt Izaac Pacheco will make it to campus as he should be a late first round/early second round selection. Rawley Hector will also be a name to watch as he has had success with various U18 Team USA teams; his biggest factor should be the price tag he is looking for as I don't see him too high on any lists which would push down to the $500,000 signing range in the draft.

Brandon Birdsell made the transfer to San Jacinto after his 2019 freshman season and did well during the shortened 2020 season. He then put together a terrific start for Texas Tech before a rotator cuff injury ended his season. Prior to the injury, he had been projected as a late 3rd round or early 4th round pick, but we will see how much the injury will set him back in the draft. Jason Ruffcorn was selected in the 2019 draft, but chose to return to OU where he was rated as a top bullpen arm entering the 2021 season. He was excellent out of the pen for OU during 2021, but the Sooners moved him to the rotation for the last month of the year where he saw his ERA balloon from under 1.00 to 4.00 by season's end. I would expect him to get another chance this draft.


What to look forward to next year:

For an experience laden team, most of the names will not be back for 2022 either from eligibility finally running out, the draft, or more than the usual amount of transfers due to the out-going/in-coming head coach situation. 2022 should be an open slate for the Aggies, and with no penalties for transferring, we should see a lot of new faces come next year.


For reference:
***Official Aggies vs. 2017 MLB Draft Thread***
***Official Aggies vs. 2018 MLB Draft Thread***
***Official Aggies vs. 2019 MLB Draft Thread***
***Official Aggies vs. 2020 MLB Draft Thread***
830Aggie830
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My pre-draft predictions:

Miller: 2-4th rounds
Saenz: 4-8th rounds
Frizzell: Very hard to predict. Will depend on his signability. Could potentially sneak as high as 5th round if he wants to sign under slot but will more than likely be around the 7-12 round range. Only because of injury history. Sucks for will considering the year he had.
Jozwiak: Could slip into late day 2 but will more than likely be day 3 selection. Should get all of the allotted 125k.
Menefee: I believe Moo is pitching a little this summer. If he continues to put together a few good outings this summer, I could see him getting an offer to sign for maybe 100-125k after the 10th round. I expect him to take this offer if it is given. If not, I would expect to see him back next year.
Weber: Could see him signing free agent deal or a 15-20 round pick if he desires to continue. I understand he just graduated and appeared to be trending downhill when it came to will and desire to be there. My guess on him is either transfer, given he is a 4th year junior who graduated, or he comes back and loses some weight and tries for a weekend spot next year.
Childress: Childress has a chance to sign but will more than likely not be happy with the monetary value to go along with his pick. My guess for Childress is that he plays summer ball and comes back tremendously less pear shaped and goes for the Friday spot next year. First round talent with tremendous upside if he can be what he was preTJ.

Alejo, Hoener: Could potentially see free agent signs from these two. Maybe, maybe not. Depends on their desire to continue their career.

After this group, I see no other potential signs. My guess would be that we see very few returnees from this years freshman class and that next years team looks 90% different.
Mr.Ackar07
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https://d1baseball.com/prospects/2021-top-150-college-draft-prospects/

D1 updated their list of college players only placing Bryce Miller and Dustin Saenz at 48th and 91st respectively. Will Frizzell did not make the list.
MrCoachEricTaylor
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I have not seen Friz on ANY draft boards or rumors, slightly disappointing after the year he had.

I suppose the biggest concern is the lack of consistent production with the aluminum bat vs what they can get out of him with a wood bat. I would think someone would still take a flyer on him though.
Wicked Good Ag
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All SEC coming back I guess
tcow715
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AG
MrCoachEricTaylor said:

I have not seen Friz on ANY draft boards or rumors, slightly disappointing after the year he had.

I suppose the biggest concern is the lack of consistent production with the aluminum bat vs what they can get out of him with a wood bat. I would think someone would still take a flyer on him though.
He will get drafted for sure but his biggest knock is his age. He is 22/23 years old and just had his first great year. The talent is there but these seniors are graded differently when they get to a certain age. It almost becomes a narrative of "oh you should be putting up those numbers because you've been in college longer or because you are older than everyone". He has a big league power tool and someone will definitely take him. My guess is he goes as an under slot option in rounds 6-10. I have absolutely zero clue though. Just going off of previous successful seniors draft positions.
Goose06
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AG
Which of the seniors are eligible to return?
Mr.Ackar07
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Goose06 said:

Which of the seniors are eligible to return?
I believe, excluding those players that have retired/transferred already, Rody Barker, Chandler Jozwiak, Bryce Miller, Dustin Saenz, Will Frizzell, and maybe Mikey Hoehner all have a year of eligibility left due to the Covid waiver. All of those guys began their collegiate career in 2018 and should have an extra year left.
OLAG63
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AG
Ty Hodge really n needs to bulk up at only 105'lbs.
HuttoAggie
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New Mock from ESPN: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31782968/2021-mlb-mock-draft-30-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-first-two-rounds

They have Pacheco dropping to 54....have to think Schloss could possibly get him here based upon that draft slot, right? Would be huge.
tcow715
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maxpepper12 said:

New Mock from ESPN: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31782968/2021-mlb-mock-draft-30-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-first-two-rounds

They have Pacheco dropping to 54....have to think Schloss could possibly get him here based upon that draft slot, right? Would be huge.
In theory, but it all depends on who they draft ahead of him or behind him. If they go under slot in the first round they could afford him or if they go under slot with a few picks behind him. If he actually gets drafted in this range he will go. The contract will most likely be agreed on before he gets drafted. These teams normally don't take above slot options unless it is a guarantee. I do think Schloss has been in his ear though, and if his name really isn't called in the first 60-80 picks I would cautiously optimistic. That is as long as his "number" is $2 million plus. The slot value here at 54 is still $1.3 million.
830Aggie830
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Fizzell will not be on any of the ranking given his combination of age, lack of consistency up until this year, and the most obvious; injury history. It truly sucks to see someone put up such great numbers and not receive the rewards one would expect to follow. However, the MLB draft is weird and is not like NFL or NBA. Friz will obviously be drafted and will be given a shot at professional baseball but he will not be getting paid like you would expect from a first team all american. My expectations draft wise would be that he has a chance to go between the 6-10 round but will sign under slot. If he dips pst the 10th, I could see him getting the full 125 max bonus post 10th round.
Goose06
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AG
Is there a remote possibility that frizzell comes back? Same question for Saenz really.
830Aggie830
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Goose06 said:

Is there a remote possibility that frizzell comes back? Same question for Saenz really.
I would say there is less than 1% chance either of them come back. Assuming they came back, they would be 23, nearing 24, come draft time next year and would sign a professional contract for less that $5,000 next year. Being a senior with no leverage dramatically reduces your signing bonus for MLB draft. I'm sure both Friz and Saenz would prefer 75-200k over 5k next year. Also, Friz already graduated; not sure on Saenz. Just something else to consider. Added reasons to begin a professional career.
MrCoachEricTaylor
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That new Kiley McDaniels top 200 prospects ranking has Friz ranked #172
jkag89
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Vandy is being hit hard by the draft. Leiter picked 2nd by the Rangers, Rocker 10th by the Mets and commit Jordan Lawlar (Dallas Jesuit) 6th by the Dbacks.
powerbelly
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jkag89 said:

Vandy is being hit hard by the draft. Leiter picked 2nd by the Rangers, Rocker 10th by the Mets and commit Jordan Lawlar (Dallas Jesuit) 6th by the Dbacks.


Lawlar was never going to Vandy
Aggie09Derek
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jkag89 said:

Vandy is being hit hard by the draft. Leiter picked 2nd by the Rangers, Rocker 10th by the Mets and commit Jordan Lawlar (Dallas Jesuit) 6th by the Dbacks.
Vandy adds to their recruiting pitch would be another way of saying that. None of those guys were ever expected to be at Vandy next year. If anything a bit of a surprise Rocker went that late.
ftworthag02
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What's the chance izaac Pacheco makes it to campus?
tcow715
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ftworthag02 said:

What's the chance izaac Pacheco makes it to campus?
Not high but always a chance
KaneIsAble
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OLAG63 said:

Ty Hodge really n needs to bulk up at only 105'lbs.


Funny post - I laughed
pdg88
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Complete list of first round picks with the college they attended or were committed to:

MrCoachEricTaylor
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I'd say, at this point in time, a little higher than it was about 12 hours ago. With him making it out of the first round you can wonder if he wants to try to make himself more money by being drafted higher in a couple of years. Plus having a couple of years under this new coaching staff.

Nobody is a sure bet but I think he's got the potential to do himself some favors by coming to school and trying again in a couple of years.
powerbelly
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MrCoachEricTaylor said:

I'd say, at this point in time, a little higher than it was about 12 hours ago. With him making it out of the first round you can wonder if he wants to try to make himself more money by being drafted higher in a couple of years. Plus having a couple of years under this new coaching staff.

Nobody is a sure bet but I think he's got the potential to do himself some favors by coming to school and trying again in a couple of years.
We also have now have a coach that helped turn an undrafted kid into a 1.1.
MrCoachEricTaylor
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Exactly my point!! Fingers crossed!

He went to the same high school my wife did. Her dad is a baseball lifer and he swears that kid is special with the bat.
CypressAg09
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AG
Looks like Florida got hit pretty hard, im sure they knew those guys would go pro though.
AggieBB
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MrCoachEricTaylor said:

Exactly my point!! Fingers crossed!

He went to the same high school my wife did. Her dad is a baseball lifer and he swears that kid is special with the bat.
Watched him for three games against College Station in the playoffs this year. He is scary good at the plate. Never seen a hs kid hit the ball as hard as he does, and he did it consistently. We get that kid, he will set records here.
PhatMack19
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Thisguy1
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Who are you referring to?
powerbelly
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Spencer Torkelson
tcow715
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PhatMack19 said:


I have a pretty strong connection to Cy Ranch and let me tell you... that pitching staff was insane to watch. You rolled out 3 guys every week that threw 90+ mph at the high school level. You have those guys but that Cy Ranch team also had roughly 12-15 other guys go play at the collegiate level and one other got drafted as well.
Mr.Ackar07
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Pacheco goes to the Tigers
themissinglink
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themissinglink
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One pick later...

Mr.Ackar07
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Logan Henderson too
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