Wicked Good Ag said:

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I think we go to Lubbock because Baylor has to be shipped somewhere and can't go to TCU TECH or Oklahoma if they host. LSU might work but west coast is likely. Same for Texas

We logistically would be going to TCU or Tech you could add in Rice to LSU or TCU

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The Sooner just went 2 and Q at the BDF tournament, I seriously doubt they host now. I think the weak showing by both BU and OU the past couple of weeks means only tech and TCU will be hosts out of the BDF despite a good year for the league overall.

I'm not sure how Rice winning that conference is a 3 seed - They're a 500 team from a non-major conference. That sure is the criteria for a 4 seed. I could see us both in Lubbock.

You might be right about Rice being a 4 seed if they get the auto bid, but that is a bad draw for whoever gets them as their 4 seed. They have 7 wins against the top 25. Not who I want as my 4 seed.

nereus said:

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You might be right about Rice being a 4 seed if they get the auto bid, but that is a bad draw for whoever gets them as their 4 seed. They have 7 wins against the top 25. Not who I want as my 4 seed.

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Didn't realize they had that many wins against good teams.

When we played them this year, they just looked bad. It was almost sad to see them so bad cause they've always been so good.

twk said:

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Wicked Good Ag said:

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IF WE ARE SENT TO LUBBOCK and all pitchers are well rested

do we pitch Martin in game one against the two seed and then go Hill who had combined 3 hit shutout earlier in season ?

Similar to the thought of holding your ace if you are the one seed but I think this might be the way to go as Martin has been pitching well. If he doesn't have to extend an inning with a walk or hit he could go 8 innings and give us a near full pen

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Nope. We're going to be playing a quality team that will require everything we've got to win game 1, and avoid the loser's bracket. As our one game at Hoover showed, getting into the loser's bracket would probably result in a quick trip home. Corbin was really good last week, but over the course of the season, Hill gave us more of the kind of outings that we're looking for in game 1 than Corbin did. But, having someone like Corbin, who can be absolutely brilliant, or not, is probably what we're going to need if we win game 1 and face a national seed throwing their ace in game 2.

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I did some further calculations. Using the last seven series (beginning of our good portion and thru out bad portion)

Hill with 40 IP 15 earned with 657 pitches for a 3.37 ERA and team is 5-2 when he starts

Martin with 42 IP 12 earned with 723 pitches for a 2.57 ERA and team is also 5-2 when he starts.

With Hill shutting down Tech previously maybe not so far fetched that Martin pitches against a two seed and Hill takes on Tech if we win.

I know if we lose with Martin in first round then Texags will go ballistic but I think there is some merit to a switch if in fact we are sent to Lubbock

Ball is flying out in Hoover. Spanberger with 3 homers, 7 RBI in 3 ABs. Haven't seen this many homers since the nuclear bat era.

Is there a home run cycle? He has a solo, 2-run, and grand slam, just needs the 3-run homer to complete it

I guess you are hoping for a run rule in this game otherwise it could be a late night for you.

Rice beats ODU 4-3. The Owls (29-29) are just 2 wins away from a regional.

I suspect there will be 16 teams from mid-major 1-bid conferences to serve as #4 seeds such that Rice would be a #3 despite being just a game or two over .500

Maryland loses its B1G tournament opener.

likewise UConn loses its C-USA tournament opener.

Sam Houston charges into the winner's bracket with a win over SELU in the Southland.

and DBU moves into the winner's bracket of the MWC with another win today.

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the committee might end up with a truckload of teams from the lone star state needing regional homes. Could be as many as 10 squads from Texas in postseason play

Miami won its first ACC tournament game on Tuesday and won't play again until Friday

"Is there a home run cycle? He has a solo, 2-run, and grand slam, just needs the 3-run homer to complete it"

TK,
of course there is! The Ags had a player back in 2001-2002 (Travis Wong) that hit for the HR cycle in high school.

"Chicks dig the Wong ball" -- anyone else remember those t-shirts? haha

aginlakeway said:

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The Debt said:

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Hell of a run Ags

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Is it over?

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Our SECT run is.

jkag89 said:

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I guess you are hoping for a run rule in this game otherwise it could be a late night for you.

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Sure was. Last year I had to stay up til like 2:30 am to watch our game against Florida. Never again.

Lefty Ag '89 said:

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"Is there a home run cycle? He has a solo, 2-run, and grand slam, just needs the 3-run homer to complete it"

TK,
of course there is! The Ags had a player back in 2001-2002 (Travis Wong) that hit for the HR cycle in high school.

"Chicks dig the Wong ball" -- anyone else remember those t-shirts? haha

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I remember our 2002 collapse timing well with his suspension.

it was a strange move by the Auburn coach to use both Mize and Keegan in the first game. He must have felt his team really needed that one.

looks like the Tigers (35-24) will finish with about a 13-12 record vs. the top 50 and an SoS around #30. Should be okay

They just did the promo for the next game and used Will Johnson's voice from the A&M game.

Oklahoma State wins again --- only 2 victories away from stealing a bid via the Big 12 tournament.

#40 St. John's (40-10) loses its Big East tournament opener. Only 4 teams play in the tournament. Hard to imagine the Big East getting 2 bids with St. John's dreadful SoS numbers. Strangely enough (and irrelevant to the selection process) D1 had St. John's ranked #20 in their last poll

W said:

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Oklahoma State wins again --- only 2 victories away from stealing a bid via the Big 12 tournament.

#40 St. John's (40-10) loses its Big East tournament opener. Only 4 teams play in the tournament. Hard to imagine the Big East getting 2 bids with St. John's dreadful SoS numbers. Strangely enough (and irrelevant to the selection process) D1 had St. John's ranked #20 in their last poll

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So do our chances of making the tournament still look pretty good right now?

I think the Ags chances are still good --- the same as they were yesterday. Those "9 at-large spots left" are still there.

potential bid-stealing exists in the Southland, C-USA, Big 12, B1G, ACC, SEC, and MVC tournaments. However some or most of the underdogs will run out of gas by Saturday

Maryland (35-20) wins its first elimination game. RPI #32. SoS #70.

one note...the Maryland athletic director is on the selection committee

big win for UCLA (29-25) to reach 18-10 in the Pac-12. RPI at #53. SoS #24. Looking real good for an at-large bid

The tigers are having wildcats for dinner! Could be the second run-rule game of the night.

Top of the sixth LSU 10 KU 0.

LSU is playing at an entirely different level right now

Definitely didn't expect that. Now let's make it back to the final. The last two years we've been in this position and lost on Saturday.

with almost all of Thursday's games complete, here's how the at-large picture looks:

still 24 or 33 at-large spots claimed and 9 spots available among:

(using Warren Nolan's RPI)

#33 Maryland
#39 UConn
#43 A&M
#47 Miami
#53 UCLA

2nd team from the Southland...#26 SELU or #36 McNeese
2nd team from C-USA...#42 LaTech or #44 ODU
2nd team from the Sun Belt...#37 South Alabama or #49 Coastal or #52 Lafayette
2nd team from the West Coast...#48 Gonzaga or #54 San Diego

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UCLA is a lock with one more win. Maryland, UConn, and Miami are still playing in their respective tournaments. Maryland and UConn are in the loser's bracket.

SELU is more likely to get the at-large bid over McNeese if neither wins the tournament. Both are in the loser's bracket.

the top seeds in the Sun Belt start play on Friday. The chairman of the selection committee is from the West Coast conference (for what that's worth)

now the problem areas for the bubble teams...

if #24 Missouri State does not come back and win the MVC tournament, the available at-large bids shrink to 8

if #11 Southern Miss does not come back and win the C-USA tournament, the number drops to 7

if #45 Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 tournament, the at-large bids shrink to 6

and there could be issues in the B1G, AAC, and ACC tournaments too

W said:

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#33 Maryland
#39 UConn
#43 A&M
#47 Miami
#53 UCLA

2nd team from the Southland...#26 SELU or #36 McNeese
2nd team from C-USA...#42 LaTech or #44 ODU
2nd team from the Sun Belt...#37 South Alabama or #49 Coastal or #52 Lafayette
2nd team from the West Coast...#48 Gonzaga or #54 San Diego

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the good news is that A&M has a better resume than the teams above...with the possible exceptions of UCLA, ODU, Lafayette, and SELU

big game for #17 Virginia today vs. Clemson. UVA has slipped out of the top 16. Might be opening the door for #13 FSU to take their host slot if the Seminoles can beat Louisville

SELU bounced from the Southland Tournament.

SHSU and Central Arkansas, two bid stealers, are waiting in the winners bracket right now. Bubble teams pretty much have to root for McNeese to come through the losers bracket.

yes, SELU with an RPI #29 and SoS #46 is likely safe for an at-large bid. Finished second in the conference, but won the head-to-head series vs. McNeese. The Lions also won the series vs. Sam Houston and won a series vs. Rice. 8-6 vs. the top 50 and 16-10 vs. top 100. Good marks.

#37 McNeese...the regular season champ...could be in trouble if Sam or C.Arkansas grabs the auto bid. McNeese is just 4-9 vs. the top 50 and 6-14 vs. the top 100. SoS #88. Very shaky for at-large bid with those numbers. Might be the last team in the field

Will the committee send Southeastern to Baton Rouge for the millionth time, or will the Lions go to Hattiesburg? We might be the unlucky host to get Rice as the 4 seed. If ULL and or McNeese make it, they could end up in BR, too.

LA Tech won't make the tournament.